Prediction of vernalisation in three Australian Vrn responsive wheats

This study sought to better estimate vernalisation in winter wheats, so that their early development and time of anthesis can be better predicted. For this, an accurate relationship between temperature and the effectiveness of vernalisation is required. Using previously published data, our study found that the relationship between temperature and effectiveness of vernalisation can be suitably described by a quadratic function. In contrast, most previous studies used linear interpolation functions to describe vernalising effectiveness. These consist of a series of linear functions of temperature over adjoining temperature ranges. An advantage of quadratic functions is that they allow effectiveness of vernalisation to be described in terms of underlying physiological processes, and require the estimation of fewer parameters to predict wheat development. Our study found the cardinal temperatures for vernalisation to be –3�C, 6.5�C, and 15.9�C, that is for the lower, optimum, and maximum temperatures respectively. To allow for different upper temperature limits for vernalisation, 2 quadratic temperature-vernalising effectiveness functions were used to predict accumulated daily vernalisation at 3 field sites. These predictions of daily vernalisation were compared with corresponding estimates produced with 3 previously proposed linear interpolation functions. Varying degrees of agreement were found between estimates produced by the 2 types of vernalising effectiveness functions. Equations that have been developed to predict floral initiation in winter wheats have not been previously evaluated in Australian field environments. These equations utilise the same underlying relationship between accumulated daily vernalisation and a measure of floral initiation, often the appearance of double ridges. Two of these equations were used to predict the appearance of double ridges for a field-grown Australian winter wheat, JF87%014. Neither equation could satisfactorily predict the timing of the double ridge development stage for this wheat, whatever vernalising effectiveness function was used to predict vernalisation in the field. Both equations had greatest difficulty in predicting the double ridge stage, in environments where vernalisation most delayed development. This finding suggests that equations currently predicting floral initiation in winter wheats do not utilise an accurate relationship between accumulated vernalisation and floral initiation. An alternative method of predicting anthesis in winter wheats is to predict final leaf number, but this approach has not been reliably applied in environments where vernalising temperatures vary.