scholarly journals Population-based methods for estimating the number of men who have sex with men: a systematic review

Sexual Health ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 527
Author(s):  
Daniel E. Mauck ◽  
Merhawi T. Gebrezgi ◽  
Diana M. Sheehan ◽  
Kristopher P. Fennie ◽  
Gladys E. Ibañez ◽  
...  

The objective of this systematic review was to summarise population-based methods (i.e. methods that used representative data from populations) for estimating the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM), a high-risk group for HIV and other sexually transmissible infections (STIs). Studies using population-based methods to estimate the number or percentage of MSM or gay men were included. Twenty-eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Seven studies used surveillance data, 18 studies used survey data, and six studies used census data. Sixteen studies were conducted in the US, five were conducted in European countries, two were conducted in Canada, three were conducted in Australia, one was conducted in Israel, and one was conducted in Kenya. MSM accounted for 0.03–6.5% of men among all studies, and ranged from 3.8% to 6.4% in the US, from 7000 to 39100 in Canada, from 0.03% to 6.5% in European countries, and from 127947 to 182624 in Australia. Studies using surveillance data obtained the highest estimates of the MSM population size, whereas those using survey data obtained the lowest estimates. Studies also estimated the MSM population size by dimensions of sexual orientation. In studies examining these dimensions, fewer people identified as MSM than reported experience with or attraction to other men. Selection bias, differences in recall periods and sampling, or stigma could affect the estimate. It is important to have an estimate of the number of MSM to calculate disease rates, plan HIV and STI prevention efforts, and to allocate resources for this group.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahra Ibrahimi ◽  
Deepa Dongarwar ◽  
Korede K. Yusuf ◽  
Sitratullah Olawunmi Maiyegun ◽  
Hamisu M. Salihu

Abstract The objective of this study was to assess trends in childhood viable pregnancy over the previous three decades as well as the risk of stillbirth in these highly vulnerable child mothers. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study that used Birth datasets, Fetal Death datasets, and the US population census data: 1982-2017. To assess the association between various socio-demographic and maternal comorbidities and stillbirth, we generated adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) from Cox Proportional Hazards Regression models. Overall, there were declines in the stillbirth rates in both teens (15-19 years old) and child mothers aged ≤ 14 years, but the rate remained consistently higher among child mothers. Compared to teen mothers, childhood pregnancy was modestly associated with elevated risk for stillbirth. Childhood pregnancy is a risk factor for stillbirth. These findings further underscore the need for sustained efforts and policies to prevent pregnancies in the early years of reproductive development.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irene Rocchetti ◽  
Dankmar Boehning ◽  
Heinz Holling ◽  
Antonello Maruotti

Background: While the number of detected SARS-CoV-2 infections are widely available, an understanding of the extent of undetected cases is urgently needed for an effective tackling of the pandemic. The aim of this work is to estimate the true number of SARS-CoV-2 (detected and undetected) infections in several European Countries. The question being asked is: How many cases have actually occurred? Methods: We propose an upper bound estimator under cumulative data distributions, in an open population, based on a day-wise estimator that allows for heterogeneity. The estimator is data-driven and can be easily computed from the distributions of daily cases and deaths. Uncertainty surrounding the estimates is obtained using bootstrap methods. Results: We focus on the ratio of the total estimated cases to the observed cases at April 17th. Differences arise at the Country level, and we get estimates ranging from the 3.93 times of Norway to the 7.94 times of France. Accurate estimates are obtained, as bootstrap based intervals are rather narrow. Conclusions: Many parametric or semi-parametric models have been developed to estimate the population size from aggregated counts leading to an approximation of the missed population and/or to the estimate of the threshold under which the number of missed people cannot fall (i.e. a lower bound). Here, we provide a methodological contribution introducing an upper bound estimator and provide reliable estimates on the dark number, i.e. how many undetected cases are going around for several European Countries, where the epidemic spreads differently.


Sexual Health ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 474
Author(s):  
Richard Crosby ◽  
Ryan Pasternak ◽  
Laura F. Salazar ◽  
Ivy Terrell

In the US, young Black men (YBM) disproportionately acquire sexually transmissible infections (STI), including infection with HIV. This secondary analysis compared sexual behaviours of YBM (n = 568) not reporting sex with men with those of YBM who have sex with men (YBMSM). In the present study YBMSM were generally less likely to report engagement in sexual risk behaviours, less likely to report incarceration and more likely to ever be tested for HIV. The findings suggest that elevated rates of HIV and/or STI among YBMSM may be a product of higher prevalence rates in sexual networks.


Sexual Health ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melanie G. Middleton ◽  
Andrew E. Grulich ◽  
Ann M. McDonald ◽  
Basil Donovan ◽  
Jane S. Hocking ◽  
...  

Background: To review existing data on sexually transmissible infections (STI) in men who have sex with men in Australia in order to determine the possible contribution of STI to diverging trends in HIV notifications in different states. Methods: We reviewed data from multiple sources, including routine national surveillance data, laboratory surveillance data, self-reported information on STI testing in men who have sex with men and ad hoc reports of STI prevalence. Results: We found increasing rates of gonorrhoea and infectious syphilis notifications in urban men in Australia between 1997 and 2006, and increasing rates of chlamydia notifications in men aged 30–49 years. There was little difference in these trends by state. Differences in the population groups sampled meant we were unable to gain further information on trends in men who have sex with men from these studies. Data on STI testing showed an increase in anal STI testing between 2003 and 2006, which may have increased the number of diagnoses of chlamydia and gonorrhoea for men who have sex with men during this period. Conclusions: Over the past 10 years, there has been a substantial increase in diagnoses of gonorrhoea and infectious syphilis, and probably chlamydia, in men who have sex with men in Australia. However, it is unlikely that changes in the pattern of STI transmission are responsible for the recent divergence in HIV rates between Australian states because there is little evidence that trends in STI also differ by state.


Sexual Health ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 344
Author(s):  
Hester Allen ◽  
Rachel Pitt ◽  
Megan Bardsley ◽  
Christa Smolarchuk ◽  
Ann Sullivan ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Following an upward trajectory in Lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) diagnoses in the UK from 2004 to 2016, with annual diagnoses increasing from 28 to 904, diagnoses fell to 641 in 2017; this was inconsistent with the upward trend in other bacterial sexually transmissible infections (STIs) between 2016 and 2017. An analysis of surveillance data from multiple sources to investigate the possible factors contributing to this decline in LGV was performed. Methods: LGV tests and diagnoses in the UK from 2004 to 2018 were captured through laboratory data from the LGV Reference Laboratories and laboratories conducting in-house LGV testing. These data and clinical diagnoses data from England were analysed alongside the national management guidelines issued over the course of the epidemic. Results: LGV diagnoses increased between 2004 and 2015 and then decreased between 2016 and 2018. LGV testing increased from 2010 to 2018 (2690–10850). Test positivity halved between 2015 (14.8%, 929–6272) and 2018 (7.3%, 791–10850). Peaks in LGV testing and diagnoses appeared to coincide with the publication of national LGV management guidelines and changes to clinical practice. The proportion of LGV diagnoses among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) fell between 2013 and 2018 (74–48%). Conclusions: The fall in diagnoses and positivity were likely due to increasing earlier clinical diagnosis and treatment. Changes to the national management guidelines, the clinical policy and practice of some larger clinics and potentially changes to the guidelines for the treatment of chlamydia broadened the scope of testing and increased testing in asymptomatic patients which, in combination, likely had a positive effect on the control of LGV infection.


Sexual Health ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric P. F. Chow ◽  
Shayne Camilleri ◽  
Christopher Ward ◽  
Sarah Huffam ◽  
Marcus Y. Chen ◽  
...  

Background Chlamydia and gonorrhoea are the two most common sexually transmissible infections (STI) among men who have sex with men (MSM) worldwide. Infections at the pharynx and rectum are usually asymptomatic; however, the natural history of these infections remains unknown. The aim of this study is to estimate the duration of both infections at the extragenital sites from published epidemiological cohort studies. Methods: English peer-reviewed articles were searched from 1 January 2000 to 12 March 2015 in three electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central). The prevalence-to-incidence ratio from each study was calculated to reflect the duration of each infection. This review followed the PRISMA guidelines and was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42014007087). Results: There were 2585 records identified, with 1721 abstracts and 52 full-text articles screened, resulting in four studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria. Pharyngeal gonorrhoea (114–138 days) had a shorter duration of infection than rectal gonorrhoea (346 days). In addition, chlamydia had a longer duration of infection at the pharynx (667 days) and rectum (579 days) compared with gonorrhoea infection. Conclusions: Gonorrhoea has a shorter duration of infection than chlamydia, suggesting that annual STI screening will be more effective at diagnosing chlamydia than gonorrhoea. The current STI guidelines recommend screening gonorrhoea and chlamydia at least once a year in MSM; it would only detect ~30% of incident pharyngeal gonorrhoea cases, with a mean duration of 4 months.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Irene Rocchetti ◽  
Dankmar Böhning ◽  
Heinz Holling ◽  
Antonello Maruotti

Abstract Background While the number of detected COVID-19 infections are widely available, an understanding of the extent of undetected cases is urgently needed for an effective tackling of the pandemic. The aim of this work is to estimate the true number of COVID-19 (detected and undetected) infections in several European countries. The question being asked is: How many cases have actually occurred? Methods We propose an upper bound estimator under cumulative data distributions, in an open population, based on a day-wise estimator that allows for heterogeneity. The estimator is data-driven and can be easily computed from the distributions of daily cases and deaths. Uncertainty surrounding the estimates is obtained using bootstrap methods. Results We focus on the ratio of the total estimated cases to the observed cases at April 17th. Differences arise at the country level, and we get estimates ranging from the 3.93 times of Norway to the 7.94 times of France. Accurate estimates are obtained, as bootstrap-based intervals are rather narrow. Conclusions Many parametric or semi-parametric models have been developed to estimate the population size from aggregated counts leading to an approximation of the missed population and/or to the estimate of the threshold under which the number of missed people cannot fall (i.e. a lower bound). Here, we provide a methodological contribution introducing an upper bound estimator and provide reliable estimates on the dark number, i.e. how many undetected cases are going around for several European countries, where the epidemic spreads differently.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn E McCandless ◽  
Marissa Suh ◽  
David Yin ◽  
Michael Yeh ◽  
Shawn Czado ◽  
...  

Abstract Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS) is a complex developmental genetic disorder associated with hypotonia, poor feeding in neonates, onset of hyperphagia in early childhood, and shorter overall life expectancy. Prior epidemiology studies of PWS have examined smaller populations, with limited research in a US population. The aim of this study was to provide a contemporary estimate of PWS prevalence and annual all-cause mortality in the US using a large administrative medical claims dataset. Methods: PWS patients were identified between 2012-2014 via the presence of ≥2 claims with a diagnosis code for PWS on medical claims provided by IQVIA™ Health Plan Claims Data and CMS Medicare fee-for-service claims. Patients were grouped into age bands including: 0-2, 3-8, 9-17, 18-26, 27-49, and ≥50. PWS prevalence and mortality rates were calculated for 2014, then 2018 US census data was used to project rates for the total US population. The presence of select diagnoses and procedures suggestive of a life-threatening event (e.g., mechanical ventilation) with a patient’s prompt disenrollment defined as death in the IQVIA data; vital status is indicated in Medicare data. Results: Overall US diagnosed PWS prevalence was 2.7 per 100k persons (or 1 per 37,037), a prevalence of 8,870 patients in the US in 2018. Diagnosed PWS prevalence 3.9, 5.2, 4.5, 4.2, 2.5, and 1.1 per 100k persons respectively for age bands 0-2, 3-8, 9-17, 18-26, 27-49, and ≥50. The median age of PWS patients was 21 years. The mortality rate was highest among diagnosed PWS patients aged 0-2 years and lowest among those aged 9-17 years and the overall mortality rate was 2.7%. For all respective age bands 0-2, 3-8, 9-17, 18-26, 27-49, and ≥50, the all-cause mortality rate was 5.4%, 3.0%, 1.4%, 2.1%, 2.4%, and 4.5%. The observed median age of death was 23 years (IQR 6-36) Conclusions: The diagnosed PWS prevalence of 1 per 37,037 persons estimated for the 2018 US population is comparable to the other reported US prevalence estimate. As the current study describes diagnosed patients, it likely represents a lower bound of true PWS prevalence. Annual PWS mortality is ≥3 times higher than the overall US population (2.7% vs 0.8%). This rate appears unchanged from mortality estimates reported for PWS populations in the last several decades despite significant advances in genetic testing and the availability of growth hormone therapies in the US. Aggressive management of serious comorbid conditions, especially in younger PWS patients, should be a clinical priority.


Blood ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (21) ◽  
pp. 3145-3145
Author(s):  
Verena S Hoffmann ◽  
Doris Lindoerfer ◽  
Josef Thaler ◽  
Labar Boris ◽  
Frederiki Melanthiou ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction As there are only few data available about the incidence, the stage of disease at diagnosis, the treatment and the outcome of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in Europe the European Treatment and Outcome Study (EUTOS) for CMLcollected such data in 27 European countries. The population-based registry was set up by EUTOS to further explore the epidemiology, characteristics, treatment and outcomes of CML in Europe. The present work focused on the estimation of incidence of CML in Europe, in the single countries participating in the registry and the comparison to existing incidence estimations from the US. Patients and Methods The EUTOS population-based registry aimed to document all newly diagnosed adult patients with Ph+ and/or BCR-ABL+ CML at any stage nationwide or in prespecified regions within countries of Europe. Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden were observed in total while for Austria, the Czech Republic[H1] , France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom specified regions were selected. Population data from the United Nations database were used for calculations in countries that were observed nationwide, while the study groups provided the population numbers of the specified regions for countries that were observed partially only. The registration periodvaried between 12 and 60 months in the different countries, from January 2008 to December 2012, registration area covered over 92.5 million inhabitants overall. Raw and standardized incidenceswere calculated for the countries and regions and adjusted to the registration period. For standardization the Old Europe Standard Population was used (Waterhouse et al IARC 1976). The registry and the standard population were truncated so only patients from 20 years on were included for the calculation of standardized rates. To compare and validate the EUTOS estimations we chose the data of the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program (SEER) which cover about 28% of the US population. The data were collected from 2007 to 2011. Results There were 2,936 patients registered into the EUTOS population-based registry. Raw incidences per 100,000 inhabitants per year ranged from 0.72 in Poland to 1.39 in Italy. The overall raw incidence for all countries was 1.02, with 0.90 in females and 1.14 in males. Estimations of standardized incidences ranged from 0.72 in the UK to 1.29 in Italy. Overall standardized incidence was 0.99, with 0.86 in females and 1.12 in males. Age specific incidences rose with age group. While the incidence in the 18 to 40 years old population was as low as 0.52 (0.61 in males and 0.42 in females) it increased to 1.61 (2.18 in males and 1.26 in females) in the population from 70 years up. Comparing the SEER data to our EUTOS results very similar incidences can be observed up to age group 55-59 years. From that age group up the SEER incidence estimations are considerably higher. The overall standardized SEER incidences ranged around 1.7 per 100,000 for the years observed. The higher rates can be explained by different inclusion criteria of the registries: While EUTOS includes only Ph+ and/or BCR/ABL+ patients, the SEER has more open inclusion criteria. Also patients without information on Ph-status, BCR-ABL1 negative patients and patients diagnosed with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia are included. Discussion The EUTOS population based registry is the first paneuropean prospective study of incidence of CML in Europe. For the first time data about the incidence of CML are available now for most European countries. Raw and standardized incidences from the EUTOS registry fit in well with earlier findings of study groups from countries like the UK (Bhayat et al., BMC Cancer 2009; 9; 252) (Phekoo et al Haematologica 2006), Sweden (Höglund et al Blood 2013), Germany (Nennecke et al Bundesgesundheitsblatt 2014) and France (Corm et al J Clin Oncol 2008) that range between 0.7 and 1.1 per 100,000 inhabitants. Thus the estimation of incidence over all regions participating in the EUTOS project can serve as a robust estimation of the incidence of CML in Europe. [H1]Wurde zwar voll beobachtet, zwei Regionen wurden aber ausgeschlossen, da sie nicht garantieren konnten pop-based gewesen zu sein! Disclosures Hoffmann: Novartis: Research Funding. Lindoerfer:Novartis: Research Funding. Castagnetti:Novartis, BMS,: Consultancy, Honoraria; Pfizer: Consultancy. Griskevicius:NOvartis: Research Funding. Steegmann:Novartis, BMS, Pfizer: Honoraria, Research Funding. Hehlmann:Novartis, BMS: Research Funding. Hasford:Novartis: Research Funding. Baccarani:Novartis, BMS, Pfizer, Ariad: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau.


10.2196/23173 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. e23173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Sean Sullivan ◽  
Cory Woodyatt ◽  
Chelsea Koski ◽  
Elizabeth Pembleton ◽  
Pema McGuinness ◽  
...  

Background AIDSVu is a public resource for visualizing HIV surveillance data and other population-based information relevant to HIV prevention, care, policy, and impact assessment. Objective The site, AIDSVu.org, aims to make data about the US HIV epidemic widely available, easily accessible, and locally relevant to inform public health decision making. Methods AIDSVu develops visualizations, maps, and downloadable datasets using results from HIV surveillance systems, other population-based sources of information (eg, US Census and national probability surveys), and other data developed specifically for display and dissemination through the website (eg, pre-exposure prophylaxis [PrEP] prescriptions). Other types of content are developed to translate surveillance data into summarized content for diverse audiences using infographic panels, interactive maps, local and state fact sheets, and narrative blog posts. Results Over 10 years, AIDSVu.org has used an expanded number of data sources and has progressively provided HIV surveillance and related data at finer geographic levels, with current data resources providing HIV prevalence data down to the census tract level in many of the largest US cities. Data are available at the county level in 48 US states and at the ZIP Code level in more than 50 US cities. In 2019, over 500,000 unique users consumed AIDSVu data and resources, and HIV-related data and insights were disseminated through nearly 4,000,000 social media posts. Since AIDSVu’s inception, at least 249 peer-reviewed publications have used AIDSVu data for analyses or referenced AIDSVu resources. Data uses have included targeting of HIV testing programs, identifying areas with inequitable PrEP uptake, including maps and data in academic and community grant applications, and strategically selecting locations for new HIV treatment and care facilities to serve high-need areas. Conclusions Surveillance data should be actively used to guide and evaluate public health programs; AIDSVu translates high-quality, population-based data about the US HIV epidemic and makes that information available in formats that are not consistently available in surveillance reports. Bringing public health surveillance data to an online resource is a democratization of data, and presenting information about the HIV epidemic in more visual formats allows diverse stakeholders to engage with, understand, and use these important public health data to inform public health decision making.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document