The fire history of an arid grassland: the influence of antecedent rainfall and ENSO

Implementing appropriate fire regimes has become an increasingly important objective for biodiversity conservation programs. Here, we used Landsat imagery from 1972 to 2003 to describe the recent fire history and current wildfire regime of the north-eastern Simpson Desert, Australia, within each of the region’s seven main vegetation classes. We then explored the relationship between antecedent rainfall and El Niño–Southern Oscillation with wildfire area. Wildfires were recorded in 11 years between 1972 and 2003, each differing in size. In 1975, the largest wildfire was recorded, burning 55% (4561 km2) of the study region. Smaller fires in the intervening years burnt areas that had mostly escaped the 1975 fire, until 2002, when 31% (2544 km2) of the study region burnt again. Wildfires burnt disproportionally more spinifex (Triodia basedowii) than any other vegetation class. A total of 49% of the study area has burnt once since 1972 and 20% has burnt twice. Less than 1% has burnt three times and 36% has remained unaffected by wildfire since 1972. The mean minimum fire return interval was 26 years. Two years of cumulative rainfall before a fire event, rainfall during the year of a fire event, and the mean Southern Oscillation Index from June to November in the year before a fire event could together be used to successfully predict wildfire area. We use these findings to describe the current fire regime.