Historical fire–climate relationships of upper elevation fire regimes in the south-western United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellis Q. Margolis ◽  
Thomas W. Swetnam
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
The South ◽  
Fire Exclusion

Understanding relationships between variability in historical fire occurrence and ocean–atmosphere oscillations provides opportunities for fire forecasting and projecting changes in fire regimes under climate change scenarios. We analysed tree-ring reconstructed regional climate teleconnections and fire–climate relationships in upper elevation forests (>2700m) from 16 sites in eight mountain ranges in the south-western USA. Climate teleconnections were identified by testing for associations between regional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and individual and combined phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices for both the fire exclusion (1905–1978) and reconstructed fire periods (1700–1904). Fire–climate relationships were identified by comparing reconstructed fires (84 fire years) in three classes (all, synchronous and stand-replacing fires) with PDSI, precipitation, temperature, and individual and combined phases of ENSO, PDO and AMO indices. Individual and phase combinations of ENSO, PDO and AMO were associated with variability in regional PDSI. Upper elevation fire occurrence was related to variability in regional drought, ENSO phase and phase combinations of ENSO and PDO. We conclude that ENSO most consistently influenced variability in moisture and upper elevation fire occurrence, including stand-replacing fires, but this relationship was potentially modulated by phases of the PDO.

Climatic influences on fire regimes in montane forests of the southern Cascades, California, USA

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 60 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. H. Taylor ◽  
V. Trouet ◽  
C. N. Skinner
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Montane Forests ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Response To Temperature ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Fire Extent

The relationship between climate variability and fire extent was examined in montane and upper montane forests in the southern Cascades. Fire occurrence and extent were reconstructed for seven sites and related to measures of reconstructed climate for the period 1700 to 1900. The climate variables included the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), summer temperature (TEMP), NINO3, a measure of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Fire extent at the site and regional scale was associated with dry and warm conditions in the year of the fire and regional fire extent was not associated with ENSO or PDO for the full period of analysis. The relationship between regional fire extent and climate was not stable over time. The associations of fire extent with PDSI and TEMP were only significant from ~1775 onward and the associations were strongest between 1805 and 1855. PDO and fire extent were also associated during the 1805–1855 period, and ENSO was associated with fire extent before 1800, but not after. The interannual and interdecadal variability of the fire response to temperature and drought suggests that increased periods of regional fire activity may occur when high interannual PDSI variation coincides with warm decades.

Climate effects on historical fires (1630 - 1900) in Utah

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Brown ◽  
Emily K. Heyerdahl ◽  
Stanley G. Kitchen ◽  
Marc H. Weber
Keyword(s):  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Mixed Conifer ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Mixed Conifer Forests ◽  
The Pacific

We inferred climate effects on fire occurrence from 1630 to 1900 for a new set of crossdated fire-scar chronologies from 18 forested sites in Utah and one site in eastern Nevada. Years with regionally synchronous fires (31 years with fire at ≥20% of sites) occurred during drier than average summers and years with no fires at any site (100 years) were wetter than average. Antecedent wet summers were associated with regional-fire years in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forest types, possibly by affecting fine fuel amount and continuity. NINO3 (an index of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, ENSO) was significantly low during regional-fire years (La Niñas) and significantly high during non-fire years (El Niños). NINO3 also was high during years before regional-fire years. Although regional fire years occurred nearly twice as often as expected when NINO3 and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation were both in their cool (negative) phases, this pattern was not statistically significant. Palmer Drought Severity Index was important for fire occurrence in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests across the study area but ENSO forcing was seen only in south-eastern sites. Results support findings from previous fire and climate studies, including a possible geographic pivot point in Pacific basin teleconnections at ~40°N.

Regional relationships between climate and wildfire-burned area in the Interior West, USA

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 699-709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon M Collins ◽  
Philip N Omi ◽  
Phillip L Chapman
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Western Slope ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Fuel Dynamics ◽  
Colorado Rockies ◽  
Interior West

Recent studies have linked the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with drought occurrence in the interior United States. This study evaluates the influence of AMO and PDO phases on interannual relationships between climate and wildfire-burned area during the 20th century. Palmer's Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is strongly related to burned area at both regional and subregional scales. In the southern Interior West, PDSI is most strongly related to yearly burned area during warm-phase AMO, while for the same period no significant relationships exist between PDSI and burned area in the central Interior West. During cool-phase PDO, interannual climate has little influence on burned area in either the northern or the central Interior West. The opposite is true for the southern Interior West and the eastern slope of the Colorado Rockies using the Southern Oscillation Index and PDSI, respectively. The western slope of the Colorado Rockies is the only climate division or region in which burned area is not related to preceding PDSI. During warm-phase PDO, current PDSI explains 67% of the interannual variance in burned area on the western slope. These regional and temporal differences are most likely governed by variations in fuel dynamics associated with dominant regional and subregional vegetation types.

scholarly journals A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 783-798
Author(s):  
Sarir Ahmad ◽  
Liangjun Zhu ◽  
Sumaira Yasmeen ◽  
Yuandong Zhang ◽  
Zongshan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Cedrus Deodara ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Abstract. The rate of global warming has led to persistent drought. It is considered to be the preliminary factor affecting socioeconomic development under the background of the dynamic forecasting of the water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semiarid Hindu Kush range are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537–2017. We reconstructed the March–August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the past 424 years, going back to 1593 CE. Our reconstruction featured nine dry periods (1593–1598, 1602–1608, 1631–1645, 1647–1660, 1756–1765, 1785–1800, 1870–1878, 1917–1923, and 1981–1995) and eight wet periods (1663–1675, 1687–1708, 1771–1773, 1806–1814, 1844–1852, 1932–1935, 1965–1969, and 1990–1999). This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in West Asia, thereby confirming its reliability. The multi-taper method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1–2.4, 3.3, 6.0, 16.8, and 34.0–38.0 years. The drought patterns could be linked to the large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of the Hindu Kush mountain range in northern Pakistan.

scholarly journals Juniper Tree-Ring Data from the Kuramin Range (Northern Tajikistan) Reveals Changing Summer Drought Signals in Western Central Asia

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Chen ◽  
Tongwen Zhang ◽  
Andrea Seim ◽  
Shulong Yu ◽  
Ruibo Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
June July

Coniferous forests cover the mountains in many parts of Central Asia and provide large potentials for dendroclimatic studies of past climate variability. However, to date, only a few tree-ring based climate reconstructions exist from this region. Here, we present a regional tree-ring chronology from the moisture-sensitive Zeravshan juniper (Juniperus seravschanica Kom.) from the Kuramin Range (Tajikistan) in western Central Asia, which is used to reveal past summer drought variability from 1650 to 2015 Common Era (CE). The chronology accounts for 40.5% of the variance of the June–July self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the instrumental period (1901 to 2012). Seven dry periods, including 1659–1696, 1705–1722, 1731–1741, 1758–1790, 1800–1842, 1860–1875, and 1931–1987, and five wet periods, including 1742–1752, 1843–1859, 1876–1913, 1921–1930, and 1988–2015, were identified. Good agreements between drought records from western and eastern Central Asia suggest that the PDSI records retain common drought signals and capture the regional dry/wet periods of Central Asia. Moreover, the spectral analysis indicates the existence of centennial (128 years), decadal (24.3 and 11.4 years), and interannual (8.0, 3.6, 2.9, and 2.0 years) cycles, which may be linked with climate forces, such as solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis between the scPDSI reconstruction and large-scale atmospheric circulations during the reconstructed extreme dry and wet years can provide information about the linkages of extremes in our scPDSI record with the large-scale ocean–atmosphere–land circulation systems.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KEKERINGAN DI KABUPATEN SRAGEN DENGAN METODE PALMER, THORNTHWAITE, DAN STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-124
Author(s):  
Safrudin Nor Aripbilah ◽  
Heri Suprapto
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Suitable Method ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Dry Conditions

El Nino and La Nina in Indonesia are one of the reasons that caused climate changes, which has possibility of drought and flood disasters. Sragen Regency wherethe dry season occurs, drought happened meanwhile other areas experience floods and landslides. A study on drought needs to be carried out so as to reduce the risk of losses due to the drought hazard. This study is to determine the drought index in Sragen Regency based on several methods and the correlation of each methods and its suitability to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall. Drought was analyzed using several methods such as Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Thornthwaite-Matter, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) then correlated with SOI to determine the most suitable method for SOI. The variables are applied in this method are rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration. The results showed that the drought potential of the Palmer method is only in Near Normal conditions, which is 1%, Severe drought conditions are 29% for the Thornthwaite-Matter method, and Extreme Dry conditions only reach 1,11% for the SPI method. The PDSI and SPI methods are inversely proportional to the Thornthwaite-Matter method and the most suitable method for SOI values or rainfall is the SPI method. These three methods can be identified the potential for drought with only a few variables so that they could be applied if they only have those data.Keywords: Drought, PDSI, Thornthwaite-Matter, SPI, SOI

scholarly journals A Comparison of Weekly Monitoring Methods of the Palmer Drought Index

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (24) ◽  
pp. 6033-6044 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinyoung Rhee ◽  
Gregory J. Carbone
Keyword(s):  
South Carolina ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Monitoring Methods ◽  
The South ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Monitoring Method ◽  
Climate Division

Abstract A method for weekly monitoring of the Palmer Drought Index (PDI) by using four parallel month-long calculation chains in rotation (“ROLLING” method) was tested for the Kansas Northwest Climate Division and the South Carolina Southern Climate Division and compared to two other methods, a modified version of the Climate Prediction Center’s weekly Palmer Drought Index monitoring method with a modified set of coefficients (“WEEKLY” method) and the National Climatic Data Center’s (NCDC’s) projected monthly Palmer Drought Index method using long-term historical daily normal temperature and precipitation (“NORMALS” method). The results for the Kansas Northwest Climate Division and the South Carolina Southern Climate Division generally agreed. The weekly method produced drought severity values that differ most from standard monthly PDI values despite using a modified set of coefficients. The method recently adopted by NCDC successfully estimated Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) values late in the month, but often presented a misleading trend early in the month. The method used in this paper produced PMDI and Z Index values that approximate those found using the standard monthly PMDI code. It also preserves approximately the same length of memory found in that code, provides a tool for progressive drought monitoring allowing users to assess current drought conditions, produces a weekly historical archive of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), and enables users to identify the onset of drought early and more clearly.

Proximity to grasslands influences fire frequency and sensitivity to climate variability in ponderosa pine forests of the Colorado Front Range

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meredith H. Gartner ◽  
Thomas T. Veblen ◽  
Rosemary L. Sherriff ◽  
Tania L. Schoennagel
Keyword(s):  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Colorado Front Range ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Front Range ◽  
Drought Severity Index

This study examines the influence of grasslands on fire frequency and occurrence in the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-dominated forests of the central and northern Colorado Front Range. Fire frequency based on tree-ring fire-scar data was compared between 34 fire history sites adjacent to grasslands and 34 fire history sites not adjacent to grasslands for the time period 1675–1920. Relationships were examined between fire occurrence and values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and sea-surface temperatures from the NINO3 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean (positive values indicating El Niño-like conditions and negative values La Niña-like conditions). Ponderosa pine stands adjacent to grasslands experienced more frequent fire than stands not adjacent to grasslands (P < 0.05) owing to proximity to prevalent fine fuels able to support relatively frequent surface fires. Fire activity adjacent to grasslands showed a lagged positive relationship with moist years (positive Palmer Drought Severity Index and positive NINO3) antecedent to fire events whereas fire occurrence at sites not adjacent to grasslands showed no relationship to antecedent moist years. This study illustrates how the presence of grasslands in a ponderosa pine landscape results in increased fire frequency (a bottom–up influence) and also increases the sensitivity of fire activity to interannual climate variability (a top–down influence).

scholarly journals Fire History (1896–2013) in an Abies religiosa Forest in the Sierra Norte of Puebla, Mexico

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 700
Author(s):  
Julián Cerano-Paredes ◽  
Dante A. Rodríguez-Trejo ◽  
José M. Iniguez ◽  
Rosalinda Cervantes-Martínez ◽  
José Villanueva-Díaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire History ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Fire Scars ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Abies Religiosa

The oyamel forests, as Abies dominated forests are commonly known as, register their largest distribution (95% of their population) along the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB). Although efforts have been made to study these forests with various approaches, dendrochronology-based studies have been limited, particularly in pure Abies forests in this region. The objective of this study was to reconstruct fire regimes in an Abies religiosa forest in the Sierra Norte in the state of Puebla, Mexico. Within an area of 50-ha, we collected 40 fire-scar samples, which were processed and analyzed using dendrochronological techniques to identify 153 fire scars. The fire history was reconstructed for a period of 118 years (1896–2013), with low severity surface fires occurring mainly during in the spring (92.8%) and summer (7.2%). Over the past century, fires were frequent, with an mean fire interval (MFI) and Weibull median probability of (WMPI) of five years when considering all fire scars and less than 10 years for fires covering larger areas (fires recorded by ≥25% of samples). Extensive fires were synchronized with drought conditions based on Ring Width Indexes, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). After 1983, we observed a change in fire frequencies attributed to regulated management. Longer fire intervals within the last several decades are likely leading to increased fuel accumulations and could potentially result in more severe fires in the future, threatening the sustainability of these forests. Based on our finding, we recommend management actions (silvicultural or prescribed fire) to reduce fuels and the risk of severe fires, particularly in the face of climatic changes.

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