Regional relationships between climate and wildfire-burned area in the Interior West, USA

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 699-709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon M Collins ◽  
Philip N Omi ◽  
Phillip L Chapman
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Western Slope ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Fuel Dynamics ◽  
Colorado Rockies ◽  
Interior West

Recent studies have linked the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with drought occurrence in the interior United States. This study evaluates the influence of AMO and PDO phases on interannual relationships between climate and wildfire-burned area during the 20th century. Palmer's Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is strongly related to burned area at both regional and subregional scales. In the southern Interior West, PDSI is most strongly related to yearly burned area during warm-phase AMO, while for the same period no significant relationships exist between PDSI and burned area in the central Interior West. During cool-phase PDO, interannual climate has little influence on burned area in either the northern or the central Interior West. The opposite is true for the southern Interior West and the eastern slope of the Colorado Rockies using the Southern Oscillation Index and PDSI, respectively. The western slope of the Colorado Rockies is the only climate division or region in which burned area is not related to preceding PDSI. During warm-phase PDO, current PDSI explains 67% of the interannual variance in burned area on the western slope. These regional and temporal differences are most likely governed by variations in fuel dynamics associated with dominant regional and subregional vegetation types.

Climatic influences on fire regimes in montane forests of the southern Cascades, California, USA

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 60 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. H. Taylor ◽  
V. Trouet ◽  
C. N. Skinner
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Montane Forests ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Response To Temperature ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Fire Extent

The relationship between climate variability and fire extent was examined in montane and upper montane forests in the southern Cascades. Fire occurrence and extent were reconstructed for seven sites and related to measures of reconstructed climate for the period 1700 to 1900. The climate variables included the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), summer temperature (TEMP), NINO3, a measure of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Fire extent at the site and regional scale was associated with dry and warm conditions in the year of the fire and regional fire extent was not associated with ENSO or PDO for the full period of analysis. The relationship between regional fire extent and climate was not stable over time. The associations of fire extent with PDSI and TEMP were only significant from ~1775 onward and the associations were strongest between 1805 and 1855. PDO and fire extent were also associated during the 1805–1855 period, and ENSO was associated with fire extent before 1800, but not after. The interannual and interdecadal variability of the fire response to temperature and drought suggests that increased periods of regional fire activity may occur when high interannual PDSI variation coincides with warm decades.

Climate effects on historical fires (1630 - 1900) in Utah

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Brown ◽  
Emily K. Heyerdahl ◽  
Stanley G. Kitchen ◽  
Marc H. Weber
Keyword(s):  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Mixed Conifer ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Mixed Conifer Forests ◽  
The Pacific

We inferred climate effects on fire occurrence from 1630 to 1900 for a new set of crossdated fire-scar chronologies from 18 forested sites in Utah and one site in eastern Nevada. Years with regionally synchronous fires (31 years with fire at ≥20% of sites) occurred during drier than average summers and years with no fires at any site (100 years) were wetter than average. Antecedent wet summers were associated with regional-fire years in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forest types, possibly by affecting fine fuel amount and continuity. NINO3 (an index of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, ENSO) was significantly low during regional-fire years (La Niñas) and significantly high during non-fire years (El Niños). NINO3 also was high during years before regional-fire years. Although regional fire years occurred nearly twice as often as expected when NINO3 and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation were both in their cool (negative) phases, this pattern was not statistically significant. Palmer Drought Severity Index was important for fire occurrence in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests across the study area but ENSO forcing was seen only in south-eastern sites. Results support findings from previous fire and climate studies, including a possible geographic pivot point in Pacific basin teleconnections at ~40°N.

Historical fire–climate relationships of upper elevation fire regimes in the south-western United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellis Q. Margolis ◽  
Thomas W. Swetnam
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
The South ◽  
Fire Exclusion

Understanding relationships between variability in historical fire occurrence and ocean–atmosphere oscillations provides opportunities for fire forecasting and projecting changes in fire regimes under climate change scenarios. We analysed tree-ring reconstructed regional climate teleconnections and fire–climate relationships in upper elevation forests (>2700m) from 16 sites in eight mountain ranges in the south-western USA. Climate teleconnections were identified by testing for associations between regional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and individual and combined phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices for both the fire exclusion (1905–1978) and reconstructed fire periods (1700–1904). Fire–climate relationships were identified by comparing reconstructed fires (84 fire years) in three classes (all, synchronous and stand-replacing fires) with PDSI, precipitation, temperature, and individual and combined phases of ENSO, PDO and AMO indices. Individual and phase combinations of ENSO, PDO and AMO were associated with variability in regional PDSI. Upper elevation fire occurrence was related to variability in regional drought, ENSO phase and phase combinations of ENSO and PDO. We conclude that ENSO most consistently influenced variability in moisture and upper elevation fire occurrence, including stand-replacing fires, but this relationship was potentially modulated by phases of the PDO.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of wildfires in Mississippi, USA

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Grala ◽  
William H. Cooke
Keyword(s):  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
The State ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Temporal Characteristics ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Characteristics ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Forests constitute a large percentage of the total land area in Mississippi and are a vital element of the state economy. Although wildfire occurrences have been considerably reduced since the 1920s, there are still ~4000 wildfires each year in Mississippi burning over 24 000 ha (60 000 acres). This study focusses on recent history and various characteristics of Mississippi wildfires to provide better understanding of spatial and temporal characteristics of wildfires in the state. Geographic information systems and Mississippi Forestry Commission wildfire occurrence data were used to examine relationships between climatic and anthropogenic factors, the incidence, burned area, wildfire cause, and socioeconomic factors. The analysis indicated that wildfires are more frequent in southern Mississippi, in counties covered mostly by pine forest, and are most prominent in the winter–spring season. Proximity to roads and cities were two anthropogenic factors that had the most statistically significant correlation with wildfire occurrence and size. In addition, the validity of the Palmer Drought Severity Index as a measure of fire activity was tested for climatic districts in Mississippi. Analysis indicated that drought influences fire numbers and size during summer and fall (autumn). The strongest relationship between the Palmer Drought Severity Index and burned area was found for the southern climatic districts for the summer–fall season.

scholarly journals A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 783-798
Author(s):  
Sarir Ahmad ◽  
Liangjun Zhu ◽  
Sumaira Yasmeen ◽  
Yuandong Zhang ◽  
Zongshan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Cedrus Deodara ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Abstract. The rate of global warming has led to persistent drought. It is considered to be the preliminary factor affecting socioeconomic development under the background of the dynamic forecasting of the water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semiarid Hindu Kush range are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537–2017. We reconstructed the March–August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the past 424 years, going back to 1593 CE. Our reconstruction featured nine dry periods (1593–1598, 1602–1608, 1631–1645, 1647–1660, 1756–1765, 1785–1800, 1870–1878, 1917–1923, and 1981–1995) and eight wet periods (1663–1675, 1687–1708, 1771–1773, 1806–1814, 1844–1852, 1932–1935, 1965–1969, and 1990–1999). This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in West Asia, thereby confirming its reliability. The multi-taper method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1–2.4, 3.3, 6.0, 16.8, and 34.0–38.0 years. The drought patterns could be linked to the large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of the Hindu Kush mountain range in northern Pakistan.

scholarly journals Juniper Tree-Ring Data from the Kuramin Range (Northern Tajikistan) Reveals Changing Summer Drought Signals in Western Central Asia

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Chen ◽  
Tongwen Zhang ◽  
Andrea Seim ◽  
Shulong Yu ◽  
Ruibo Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
June July

Coniferous forests cover the mountains in many parts of Central Asia and provide large potentials for dendroclimatic studies of past climate variability. However, to date, only a few tree-ring based climate reconstructions exist from this region. Here, we present a regional tree-ring chronology from the moisture-sensitive Zeravshan juniper (Juniperus seravschanica Kom.) from the Kuramin Range (Tajikistan) in western Central Asia, which is used to reveal past summer drought variability from 1650 to 2015 Common Era (CE). The chronology accounts for 40.5% of the variance of the June–July self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the instrumental period (1901 to 2012). Seven dry periods, including 1659–1696, 1705–1722, 1731–1741, 1758–1790, 1800–1842, 1860–1875, and 1931–1987, and five wet periods, including 1742–1752, 1843–1859, 1876–1913, 1921–1930, and 1988–2015, were identified. Good agreements between drought records from western and eastern Central Asia suggest that the PDSI records retain common drought signals and capture the regional dry/wet periods of Central Asia. Moreover, the spectral analysis indicates the existence of centennial (128 years), decadal (24.3 and 11.4 years), and interannual (8.0, 3.6, 2.9, and 2.0 years) cycles, which may be linked with climate forces, such as solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis between the scPDSI reconstruction and large-scale atmospheric circulations during the reconstructed extreme dry and wet years can provide information about the linkages of extremes in our scPDSI record with the large-scale ocean–atmosphere–land circulation systems.

scholarly journals Evaluating Spatiotemporal Patterns and Trends of Drought in Japan Associated with Global Climatic Drivers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ke Shi ◽  
Yoshiya Touge ◽  
So Kazama
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Arctic Oscillation Index ◽  
Climatic Drivers ◽  
Homogeneous Regions

Abstract. Drought disasters, such as water scarcity and wildfires, are serious natural disasters in Japan that are also affected by climate change. However, as drought generally has widespread impacts and the duration of drought can vary considerably, it is difficult to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics and the climatic causes of drought. Therefore, to identify the drought homogeneous regions and understand climatic causes of regional drought over Japan, this study provides a spatiotemporal analysis for historical droughts patterns and teleconnections associated with global climatic drivers. The trends of meteorological elements, which are the basis of drought index calculation, was first assessed. Then, drought characterized by the Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) was investigated. Trends and patterns of drought were identified through the trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall test and distinct empirical orthogonal function. The continuous wavelet transform and cross wavelet transform together with wavelet coherence were utilized to depict the links between drought and global climatic drivers. The results are described as follows: (1) the trends of precipitation were insignificant. However, temperature and potential evapotranspiration increasing trends were detected over Japan; (2) the drought trend over Japan varied seasonally, increasing in spring and summer and decreasing in autumn and winter; (3) two major subregions of drought variability—the western Japan (W region) and most of the northernmost Japan near the Pacific (N region) were identified; (4) wildfires with large burned area were more likely to occur when the scPDSI was less than −1; and (5) the North Atlantic Index (NAOI) showed the strongest coherence connections with Distinguished Principle Components-1 among four climatic drivers. Additionally, Distinguished Principle Components-2 showed stronger coherence connections with NAOI and Arctic Oscillation Index. This study is the first to identify homogeneous regions with distinct drought characteristics over Japan and connect the drought in Japan with the global climatic drivers.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KEKERINGAN DI KABUPATEN SRAGEN DENGAN METODE PALMER, THORNTHWAITE, DAN STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-124
Author(s):  
Safrudin Nor Aripbilah ◽  
Heri Suprapto
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Suitable Method ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Dry Conditions

El Nino and La Nina in Indonesia are one of the reasons that caused climate changes, which has possibility of drought and flood disasters. Sragen Regency wherethe dry season occurs, drought happened meanwhile other areas experience floods and landslides. A study on drought needs to be carried out so as to reduce the risk of losses due to the drought hazard. This study is to determine the drought index in Sragen Regency based on several methods and the correlation of each methods and its suitability to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall. Drought was analyzed using several methods such as Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Thornthwaite-Matter, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) then correlated with SOI to determine the most suitable method for SOI. The variables are applied in this method are rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration. The results showed that the drought potential of the Palmer method is only in Near Normal conditions, which is 1%, Severe drought conditions are 29% for the Thornthwaite-Matter method, and Extreme Dry conditions only reach 1,11% for the SPI method. The PDSI and SPI methods are inversely proportional to the Thornthwaite-Matter method and the most suitable method for SOI values or rainfall is the SPI method. These three methods can be identified the potential for drought with only a few variables so that they could be applied if they only have those data.Keywords: Drought, PDSI, Thornthwaite-Matter, SPI, SOI

scholarly journals Spatial Patterns of Preinstrumental Moisture Variability in the Southern Canadian Cordillera

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 2847-2863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Watson ◽  
Brian H. Luckman
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Canadian Cordillera ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Instrumental Records ◽  
Precipitation Records

Abstract Extreme wet and dry intervals of the last 350 yr in the Canadian Cordillera and adjacent United States are examined using a network of 25 tree-ring-based precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Reconstructed twentieth-century-mapped patterns compare well with patterns based on the instrumental records at both annual and decadal scales. During the most extreme events, dry conditions occurred over the entire area. The longest widespread drought in the last 350 yr occurred from 1917 to 1941. Shorter intervals of more severely dry conditions occurred in the early 1720s, 1750s, 1790s, 1860s–70s, and the 1890s. Many of the driest individual years and most extreme dry periods of &lt;7 yr are reconstructed for the eighteenth century. The longest, wettest periods identified by these reconstructions occurred in the early twentieth century. In agreement with published studies that explore links between instrumental precipitation records from the region and conditions in the Pacific Ocean, the reconstructed records show that drier (wetter)-than-normal conditions are associated with El Niño (La Niña) events and the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

scholarly journals Covarying Hydroclimate Patterns between Monsoonal Asia and North America over the Past 600 Years

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (21) ◽  
pp. 8017-8033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyan Fang ◽  
Deliang Chen ◽  
Jinbao Li ◽  
Heikki Seppä
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
The Past ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Dipole Pattern ◽  
Value Decomposition ◽  
Svd Method

Abstract Proxy data with large spatial coverage spanning to the preindustrial era not only provide invaluable material to investigate hydroclimate changes in different regions but also enable studies on temporal changes in the teleconnections between these regions. Applying the singular value decomposition (SVD) method to tree-ring-based field reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) over monsoonal Asia (MA) and North America (NA) from 1404 to 2005, the dominant covarying pattern between the two regions is identified. This pattern is represented by the teleconnection between the dipole pattern of southern–northern latitudinal MA and the dipole of southwest NA (SWNA)–northwest NA (NWNA), which accounts for 59.6% of the total covariance. It is dominated by an antiphase low MA and SWNA teleconnection, driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and is most significant at an interannual time scale. This teleconnection is strengthened (weakened) in periods of increased (decreased) solar forcing and high (low) temperature, which is associated with intensified (weakened) ENSO variability. Additional forcing by SST anomalies in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans appears to be important too.

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