scholarly journals Ensemble modeling informs hypoxia management in the northern Gulf of Mexico

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (33) ◽  
pp. 8823-8828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Scavia ◽  
Isabella Bertani ◽  
Daniel R. Obenour ◽  
R. Eugene Turner ◽  
David R. Forrest ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Nitrogen Loading ◽  
Load Reduction ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Water Column Stratification ◽  
Hypoxic Area

A large region of low-dissolved-oxygen bottom waters (hypoxia) forms nearly every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico because of nutrient inputs from the Mississippi River Basin and water column stratification. Policymakers developed goals to reduce the area of hypoxic extent because of its ecological, economic, and commercial fisheries impacts. However, the goals remain elusive after 30 y of research and monitoring and 15 y of goal-setting and assessment because there has been little change in river nitrogen concentrations. An intergovernmental Task Force recently extended to 2035 the deadline for achieving the goal of a 5,000-km2 5-y average hypoxic zone and set an interim load target of a 20% reduction of the spring nitrogen loading from the Mississippi River by 2025 as part of their adaptive management process. The Task Force has asked modelers to reassess the loading reduction required to achieve the 2035 goal and to determine the effect of the 20% interim load reduction. Here, we address both questions using a probabilistic ensemble of four substantially different hypoxia models. Our results indicate that, under typical weather conditions, a 59% reduction in Mississippi River nitrogen load is required to reduce hypoxic area to 5,000 km2. The interim goal of a 20% load reduction is expected to produce an 18% reduction in hypoxic area over the long term. However, due to substantial interannual variability, a 25% load reduction is required before there is 95% certainty of observing any hypoxic area reduction between consecutive 5-y assessment periods.

scholarly journals N and P as ultimate and proximate limiting nutrients in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Implications for hypoxia reduction strategies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katja Fennel ◽  
Arnaud Laurent
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Statistical Regression ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Nutrient Reduction ◽  
Total N ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
P Limitation ◽  
Hypoxic Area ◽  
Reduction Strategies

Abstract. The occurrence of hypoxia in coastal oceans is a growing problem worldwide and clearly linked to anthropogenic nutrient inputs. While the need for reducing anthropogenic nutrient loads is generally accepted, it is costly and thus requires scientifically sound nutrient-reduction strategies. Issues under debate include the relative importance of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), and the magnitude of reduction requirements. The largest anthropogenically induced hypoxic area in North American coastal waters (of 15,000 ± 5,000 km2) forms every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico where the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers deliver large amounts of freshwater and nutrients to the shelf. A 2001 plan for reducing this hypoxic area by nutrient management in the watershed called for a reduction of N loads. Evidence of P limitation during the time of hypoxia formation has arisen since then, and has opened up the discussion about single versus dual nutrient reduction strategies for this system. Here we report the first systematic analysis of the effects of single and dual nutrient load reductions from a spatially explicit physical-biogeochemical model for the northern Gulf of Mexico. The model has been shown previously to skillfully represent the processes important for hypoxic formation. Our analysis of an ensemble of simulations with stepwise reductions in N, P and N&P loads provides insight into the effects of both nutrients on primary production and hypoxia, and allows us to estimate what nutrient reductions would be required for single and dual nutrient reduction strategies to reach the hypoxia target. Our results show that, despite temporary P limitation, N is the ultimate limiting nutrient for primary production in this system. Nevertheless, a reduction in P load would reduce hypoxia because primary production in the region where density stratification is conducive to hypoxia development, but reduction in N load have a bigger effect. Our simulations show that, at present loads, the system is saturated with N, in the sense that the sensitivity of primary production and hypoxia to N load is much lower than it would be at lower N loads. We estimate that reduction of 63 % ± 18 % in total N load or 48 % ± 21 % in total N&P load are necessary to reach a hypoxic area of 5,000 km2, which is consistent with previous estimates from statistical regression models and highly simplified mechanistic models.

scholarly journals Variations in primary production of northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf waters linked to nutrient inputs from the Mississippi River

1997 ◽  
Vol 155 ◽  
pp. 45-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
SE Lohrenz ◽  
GL Fahnenstiel ◽  
DG Redalje ◽  
GA Lang ◽  
X Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Continental Shelf ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico

scholarly journals Daily hypoxia forecasting and uncertainty assessment via Bayesian mechanistic model for the Northern Gulf of Mexico

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Katin ◽  
Dario Del Giudice ◽  
Daniel R. Obenour
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Nitrogen Loading ◽  
Mechanistic Modeling ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Hypoxic Area

Abstract. Low bottom water dissolved oxygen conditions (hypoxia) occur almost every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico due to a combination of nutrient loadings and water column stratification. Several models have been used to forecast the midsummer hypoxic area based on spring nitrogen loading from major rivers. However, sub-seasonal forecasts are needed to fully characterize the dynamics of hypoxia over the summer season, which is important for informing fisheries and ecosystem management. Here, we present an approach to forecast hypoxic conditions at daily resolution through Bayesian mechanistic modeling that allows for rigorous uncertainty quantification. Within this framework, we develop and test different representations and projections of hydro-meteorological model inputs. We find that May precipitation over the Mississippi River Basin is a key predictor of summer discharge and loading that substantially improves forecast performance. Accounting for spring wind conditions also improves forecast performance, though to a lesser extent. The proposed approach generates forecasts for two different sections of the Louisiana–Texas shelf (east and west), and it explains about 50 % of the variability in total hypoxic area when tested against historical observations (1985−2016). Results also show how forecast uncertainties build over the summer season, with longer lead times from the nominal forecast release date of 31 May, due to increasing stochasticity in riverine and meteorological inputs. Consequently, the portion of overall forecast variance associated with uncertainties in data inputs increases from 26 % to 41 % from June–July to August–September, respectively. Overall, the study demonstrates a unique approach to assessing and reducing uncertainties in dynamic hypoxia forecasting.

scholarly journals N and P as ultimate and proximate limiting nutrients in the northern Gulf of Mexico: implications for hypoxia reduction strategies

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 3121-3131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katja Fennel ◽  
Arnaud Laurent
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Statistical Regression ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Nutrient Reduction ◽  
Total N ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
P Limitation ◽  
Hypoxic Area ◽  
Reduction Strategies

Abstract. The occurrence of hypoxia in coastal oceans is a long-standing and growing problem worldwide and is clearly linked to anthropogenic nutrient inputs. While the need for reducing anthropogenic nutrient loads is generally accepted, it is costly and thus requires scientifically sound nutrient-reduction strategies. Issues under debate include the relative importance of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) as well as the magnitude of the reduction requirements. The largest anthropogenically induced hypoxic area in North American coastal waters (of 15 000 ± 5000 km2) forms every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico where the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers deliver large amounts of freshwater and nutrients to the shelf. A 2001 plan for reducing this hypoxic area by nutrient management in the watershed called for a reduction of N loads. Since then evidence of P limitation during the time of hypoxia formation has arisen, and a dual nutrient-reduction strategy for this system has been endorsed. Here we report the first systematic analysis of the effects of single and dual nutrient load reductions from a spatially explicit physical–biogeochemical model for the northern Gulf of Mexico. The model has been shown previously to skillfully represent the processes important for hypoxic formation. Our analysis of an ensemble of simulations with stepwise reductions in N, P, and N and P loads provides insight into the effects of both nutrients on primary production and hypoxia, and it allows us to estimate what nutrient reductions would be required for single and dual nutrient-reduction strategies to reach the hypoxia target. Our results show that, despite temporary P limitation, N is the ultimate limiting nutrient for primary production in this system. Nevertheless, a reduction in P load would reduce hypoxia because primary production is P limited in the region where density stratification is conducive to hypoxia development, but reductions in N load have a bigger effect. Our simulations show that, at present loads, the system is almost saturated with N, in the sense that the sensitivity of primary production and hypoxia to N load is much lower than it would be at lower N loads. We estimate that reductions of 63±18 % in total N load or 48±21 % in total N and P load are necessary to reach a hypoxic area of 5000 km2, which is consistent with previous estimates from statistical regression models and highly simplified mechanistic models.

scholarly journals Forces Driving the Morphological Evolution of a Mud-Capped Dredge Pit, Northern Gulf of Mexico

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaze Wang ◽  
Kehui Xu ◽  
Chunyan Li ◽  
Jeffrey Obelcz
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Morphological Evolution ◽  
Suspended Sediments ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Sediment Concentration ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Island Restoration

Sandy sediments preserved as paleo-channel fill on the inner shelf, some of which are overlain by modern muds, have been mined for barrier island restoration along the northern Gulf of Mexico. These mined areas have been termed “mud-capped” dredge pits. The processes governing the morphological evolution of the pits are poorly constrained due to limited observational data. Physical oceanographic (e.g., currents and waves) and sedimentary data were collected at Sandy Point dredge pit offshore Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana in summer 2015. Currents outside the pit flowed southward and/or southeastward at speeds of 8–20 cm/s, while currents inside the pit had speeds less than 2 cm/s with no clear dominant direction. Wave heights detected inside the pit were less than 0.4 m. A high turbidity layer with suspended sediment concentration around 4 g/L was observed above the pit floor, and its thickness was ~0.5 m. With observational data as input, three 2–D numerical models were employed to predict pit morphological responses, including pit infilling, margin erosion and slope change. The model results suggest that resuspension events were rare on the seafloor adjacent to the pit under summer fair weather conditions. Modeled pit margin erosion was very limited. With little resuspension of seafloor sediment locally, weak margin erosion and stable pit walls, the dominant process governing pit evolution was infilling sourced by the deposition of suspended sediments from the Mississippi River plume.

Elevated nutrient inputs to marshes differentially impact carbon and nitrogen cycling in two northern Gulf of Mexico saltmarsh plants

2020 ◽  
Vol 149 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Taylor C. Ledford ◽  
Behzad Mortazavi ◽  
Corianne Tatariw ◽  
Olivia U. Mason
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Nitrogen Cycling ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Carbon And Nitrogen ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Carbon And Nitrogen Cycling

scholarly journals Coastal change and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Part I

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 180-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. C. Krug
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Coastal Change ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Atchafalaya River ◽  
European Settlement ◽  
Hypoxic Zone ◽  
Atchafalaya River Basin ◽  
And Control

Abstract. The Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) has identified the input of nutrient-rich water from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) as the prime cause of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the prime means for its control. A Watershed Nutrient Task Force was formed to solve the hypoxia problem by managing the MARB catchment. However, the hypoxic zone is also experiencing massive physical, hydrological, chemical and biological changes associated with an immense river-switching and delta-building event that occurs here about once a millennium. Coastal change induced hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico prior to European settlement. It is recommended that for further understanding and control of Gulf hypoxia the Watershed Nutrient Task Force adopt a truly holistic environmental approach which includes the full effects of this highly dynamic coastal area.

scholarly journals Retrospective Analysis of Midsummer Hypoxic Area and Volume in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, 1985–2011

2013 ◽  
Vol 47 (17) ◽  
pp. 9808-9815 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel R. Obenour ◽  
Donald Scavia ◽  
Nancy N. Rabalais ◽  
R. Eugene Turner ◽  
Anna M. Michalak
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Hypoxic Area ◽  
Area And Volume

Validating the occurrence of Caribbean reef sharks, Carcharhinus perezi (Poey), (Chondrichthyes: Carcharhiniformes) in the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a key for sharks of the family Carcharhinidae inhabiting the region

Zootaxa ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 2933 (1) ◽  
pp. 65 ◽  
Author(s):  
WILLIAM B. DRIGGERS III ◽  
ERIC R. HOFFMAYER ◽  
EMMA L. HICKERSON ◽  
TIMOTHY L. MARTIN ◽  
CHRISTOPHER T. GLEDHILL
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Shark Species ◽  
Mississippi River Delta ◽  
The Bahamas ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
The Family ◽  
Reef Sharks

Among the sharks inhabiting the continental shelf waters of the western North Atlantic Ocean, those within the genus Carcharhinus are the most speciose (Castro 2011). Authoritative sources agree on the presence of twelve species of carcharhinids in the northern Gulf of Mexico; however, they disagree on the presence of a thirteenth species, C. perezi (Poey), in the region (Compagno 1984, Compagno 2002, McEachran & Fechhelm 1998, Castro 2011). While the range of C. perezi is well-documented to extend from the southeastern coast of Florida and the Bahamas to Brazil (Castro 2011), published records of C. perezi occurring in the northern Gulf of Mexico are limited to two sources. In their description of Eulamia springeri, a junior synonym of C. perezi, Bigelow & Schroeder (1944) place the species in the northern Gulf of Mexico based on “a somewhat shrivelled skin with head” from a specimen collected off the west coast of Florida that was reported by the authors to be “probably of this species.” Later, Springer (1960) reported the capture of a single specimen off the Mississippi River Delta in 1947; however, no detail of the capture was provided other than it being listed within a table summarizing shark species collected during exploratory fishing operations.

scholarly journals Extensive reproductive disruption, ovarian masculinization and aromatase suppression in Atlantic croaker in the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone

2011 ◽  
Vol 279 (1726) ◽  
pp. 28-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Thomas ◽  
Md. Saydur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
Aromatase Activity ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Hypoxia Exposure ◽  
Hypoxic Zone ◽  
Seasonal Hypoxia ◽  
Reproductive Disruptions ◽  
Reproductive Disruption

The long-term impacts on marine ecosystems of the recent dramatic worldwide increase in the incidence of coastal hypoxia are unknown. Here, we show widespread reproductive disruption in Atlantic croakers collected from hypoxic sites approximately 120 km apart in the extensive northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf hypoxic zone. Gonadal growth and gamete production were impaired in croakers from hypoxic sites compared with fish from reference normoxic sites east of the Mississippi River Delta. Male germ cells were detected in approximately 19 per cent of croaker ovaries collected in the hypoxic region, but were absent in ovaries from normoxic sites. In addition, the sex ratio was skewed towards males at the hypoxic sites. The masculinization and other reproductive disruptions were associated with declines in neuroendocrine function, as well as ovarian and brain expression of aromatase (the enzyme that converts androgens to oestrogens). A similar incidence of ovarian masculinization and decline in ovarian aromatase expression were observed in croaker after chronic laboratory hypoxia exposure, indicating that ovarian masculinization is a specific hypoxia response and is due to decreased aromatase activity. The results suggest severe reproductive impairment can occur over large coastal regions in marine fish populations exposed to seasonal hypoxia, with potential long-term impacts on population abundance.

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