scholarly journals Association of Population Density and Distance to the City with the Risks of COVID-19: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 2123 (1) ◽  
pp. 012001
Author(s):  
M A Tiro ◽  
A Aswi ◽  
Z Rais
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Spatial Models ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Inverse Gamma ◽  
Hierarchical Spatial Models ◽  
The City

Abstract The outbreak of Coronavirus disease-2019 (Covid-19) poses a severe threat around the world. Although several studies of modelling Covid-19 cases have been done, there appears to have been limited research into modelling Covid-19 using Bayesian hierarchical spatial models. This study aims to examine the most suitable Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux models in modelling the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases without and with covariates namely distance to the capital city and population density. Data on the number of confirmed positive cases of Covid-19 (March 20, 2020 - August 30, 2021) in 15 sub-districts in Makassar City, the number of populations, population density, and distance to the city are used. The best model selection is based on several criteria, namely Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC), residuals from Moran’s I Modification (MMI), and the 95% credible interval does not contain zero. The results showed that the best model in modelling Covid-19 is spatial CAR Leroux with hyperprior Inverse-Gamma (0.5, 0.05) model with the incorporation of distance to the capital city. It is found that there was a negative correlation between the distance to the capital city and Covid-19 risk, but the association between population density and the relative risk of Covid-19 was not statistically significant. Ujung Pandang district and Sangkarrang Island have the highest and the lowest relative risk respectively.

scholarly journals Year-round monitoring reveals prevalence of fatal bird-window collisions at the Virginia Tech Corporate Research Center

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e4562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca M. Schneider ◽  
Christine M. Barton ◽  
Keith W. Zirkle ◽  
Caitlin F. Greene ◽  
Kara B. Newman
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
The United States ◽  
Virginia Tech ◽  
Research Center ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
Ornamental Trees

Collisions with glass are a serious threat to avian life and are estimated to kill hundreds of millions of birds per year in the United States. We monitored 22 buildings at the Virginia Tech Corporate Research Center (VTCRC) in Blacksburg, Virginia, for collision fatalities from October 2013 through May 2015 and explored possible effects exerted by glass area and surrounding land cover on avian mortality. We documented 240 individuals representing 55 identifiable species that died due to collisions with windows at the VTCRC. The relative risk of fatal collisions at all buildings over the study period were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical zero-inflated Poisson model adjusting for percentage of tree and lawn cover within 50 m of buildings, as well as for glass area. We found significant relationships between fatalities and surrounding lawn area (relative risk: 0.96, 95% credible interval: 0.93, 0.98) as well as glass area on buildings (RR: 1.30, 95% CI [1.05–1.65]). The model also found a moderately significant relationship between fatal collisions and the percent land cover of ornamental trees surrounding buildings (RR = 1.02, 95% CI [1.00–1.05]). Every building surveyed had at least one recorded collision death. Our findings indicate that birds collide with VTCRC windows during the summer breeding season in addition to spring and fall migration. The Ruby-throated Hummingbird (Archilochus colubris) was the most common window collision species and accounted for 10% of deaths. Though research has identified various correlates with fatal bird-window collisions, such studies rarely culminate in mitigation. We hope our study brings attention, and ultimately action, to address this significant threat to birds at the VTCRC and elsewhere.

scholarly journals Bayesian hierarchical spatial models: Implementing the Besag York Mollié model in stan

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 100301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitzi Morris ◽  
Katherine Wheeler-Martin ◽  
Dan Simpson ◽  
Stephen J. Mooney ◽  
Andrew Gelman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Models ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Hierarchical Spatial Models

scholarly journals Predicting species distribution from fishers’ local ecological knowledge: a new alternative for data-poor management

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (8) ◽  
pp. 1423-1431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscila F.M. Lopes ◽  
Júlia T. Verba ◽  
Alpina Begossi ◽  
Maria Grazia Pennino
Keyword(s):  
Local Ecological Knowledge ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Spatial Models ◽  
Marine Spatial Planning ◽  
Ecological Knowledge ◽  
Species Occurrence ◽  
Southwest Atlantic ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Dusky Grouper ◽  
Hierarchical Spatial Models

Many developing countries lack information to manage their endangered species, urging the need for affordable and reliable information. We used Bayesian hierarchical spatial models, with oceanographic variables, to predict the distribution range of Epinephelus marginatus, the dusky grouper, for the entire Southwest Atlantic. We ran a model using scientific information gathered from the literature and another using information gathered from fishers on species presence or absence. In both models, temperature was an important determinant of species occurrence. The predicted occurrence of the dusky grouper overlapped widely (Schoener’s D = 0.71; Warren’s I = 0.91) between the models, despite small differences on the southern and northern extremes of the distribution. These results suggest that basic information provided by fishers on species occurrence in their area can be reliable enough to predict species occurrence over large scales and can be potentially useful for marine spatial planning. Fishers’ knowledge may be an even more viable alternative to data collection than what was previously thought, for countries that both struggle with financial limitations and have urgent conservation needs.

Angola

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marius Schneider ◽  
Vanessa Ferguson
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
The Other ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Entire Population ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Western Africa ◽  
The City

Located in South-Western Africa, Angola is the seventh largest country in Africa, with an area of 1,246,700 square kilometres (km) bordered by Namibia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and the Atlantic Ocean. It has a population of over 29 million people and has a population density of twenty-four people per km. Its capital city is Luanda, which functions as the country’s main port as a result of its location. Luanda is also the country’s economic and cultural centre; in 2018 the city was inhabited by 2,487 million of the country’s entire population. The other main cities are significantly smaller: Huambo is the second-largest city, with a population of 226,177 people, followed by Lobito, with a population of 207,957 people, then Benguela, Lubanga, and Malanje. Business hours are generally weekdays, Monday to Friday, 0800–1300 and 1400–1700. Most companies operate on Saturdays and Sundays, with some banks being open on Saturdays from 0800–1200. However, government departments only operate during weekdays. The currency used is the Kwanza (Kz).

scholarly journals Analysis the effect of economic conditions on the vegetative change in Baghdad using GIS and remote sensing techniques

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (41) ◽  
pp. 91-102
Author(s):  
Ban Abd. Al-Razak Abbas
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Gis And Remote Sensing ◽  
The City ◽  
Vegetative Change

The study of vegetative change of cities is one of the most important studies related to human life because of its direct correlation with the temporal conditions that occur. These include the economic problems that force people to move and look for job opportunities in the city, which leads to an increase in the population density of cities, especially for cities with an important economic and administrative location as in the capital city of Baghdad. In this study, the effect of the increasing in population density was analyzed on the urban planning of Baghdad city. The decreasing in vegetation was due to the increasing of urban areas on the outskirts of the city, which led to an increase in its area. Moreover, urban cities increased the amount of randomization; this problem has not good consequences on the environmental and health level and attached services.This study was carried out by finding the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the study area through the using of two satellite image from the Landsat7 satellite for two different dates (2002 and 20017) after being uploaded from the US Geological Survey site. The third and fourth bands were used to calculate the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) by using Arc-GIS Techniques.

Convergence of regional population density in Russia over 120 years

2020 ◽  
pp. 133-158
Author(s):  
K. A. Kholodilin ◽  
Y. I. Yanzhimaeva
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Spatial Dependence ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Capital City ◽  
County Level ◽  
Spatial Effects ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Regional Population ◽  
Regional Population Density

A relative uniformity of population distribution on the territory of the country is of importance from socio-economic and strategic perspectives. It is especially important in the case of Russia with its densely populated West and underpopulated East. This paper considers changes in population density in Russian regions, which occurred between 1897 and 2017. It explores whether there was convergence in population density and what factors influenced it. For this purpose, it uses the data both at county and regional levels, which are brought to common borders for comparability purposes. Further, the models of unconditional and conditional β-convergence are estimated, taking into account the spatial dependence. The paper concludes that the population density equalization took place in 1897-2017 at the county level and in 1926—1970 at the regional level. In addition, the population density increase is shown to be influenced not only by spatial effects, but also by political and geographical factors such as climate, number of GULAG camps, and the distance from the capital city.

Accessing heat: Environmental stigma and ‘porous’ infrastructural configurations in Ulaanbaatar

Urban Studies ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 004209802110005
Author(s):  
Rebekah Plueckhahn
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Heat Generation ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Core Area ◽  
History Of ◽  
Burning Coal ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The City

This article explores the experience of living among diverse infrastructural configurations in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, and forms of stigmatisation that arise as a result. In this capital city that experiences extremely cold winters, the provision of heat is a seasonal necessity. Following a history of socialist-era, centrally provided heating, Ulaanbaatar is now made up of a core area of apartments and other buildings undergoing increased expansion, surrounded by vast areas of fenced land plots ( ger districts) not connected to centrally provided heating. In these areas, residents have historically heated their homes through burning coal, a technique that has resulted in seasonal air pollution. Expanding out from Wacquant’s definition of territorial stigmatisation, this article discusses the links between heat generation, air pollution and environmental stigmatisation arising from residents’ association with or proximity to the effects of heat generation and/or infrastructural lack. This type of stigma complexifies the normative divide between the city’s two main built areas. Residents’ attempts to mitigate forms of building and infrastructural ‘quality’ or chanar (in Mongolian) form ways of negotiating their position as they seek different kinds of property. Here, not only are bodies vulnerable to forms of pollution (both air and otherwise), but also buildings and infrastructure are vulnerable to disrepair. Residents’ assessments of infrastructural and building quality move beyond any categorisation of them being a clear ‘resistance’ to deteriorating infrastructural conditions. Instead, an ethnographic lens that positions the viewpoint of the city through these residential experiences reveals a reconceptualisation of the city that challenges infrastructurally determined normative assumptions.

scholarly journals Variance prior specification for a basket trial design using Bayesian hierarchical modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 142-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen M Cunanan ◽  
Alexia Iasonos ◽  
Ronglai Shen ◽  
Mithat Gönen
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Prior Distribution ◽  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Inverse Gamma ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Basket Trial ◽  
Basket Trials ◽  
Variance Parameter

Background: In the era of targeted therapies, clinical trials in oncology are rapidly evolving, wherein patients from multiple diseases are now enrolled and treated according to their genomic mutation(s). In such trials, known as basket trials, the different disease cohorts form the different baskets for inference. Several approaches have been proposed in the literature to efficiently use information from all baskets while simultaneously screening to find individual baskets where the drug works. Most proposed methods are developed in a Bayesian paradigm that requires specifying a prior distribution for a variance parameter, which controls the degree to which information is shared across baskets. Methods: A common approach used to capture the correlated binary endpoints across baskets is Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We evaluate a Bayesian adaptive design in the context of a non-randomized basket trial and investigate three popular prior specifications: an inverse-gamma prior on the basket-level variance, a uniform prior and half-t prior on the basket-level standard deviation. Results: From our simulation study, we can see that the inverse-gamma prior is highly sensitive to the input hyperparameters. When the prior mean value of the variance parameter is set to be near zero [Formula: see text], this can lead to unacceptably high false-positive rates [Formula: see text] in some scenarios. Thus, use of this prior requires a fully comprehensive sensitivity analysis before implementation. Alternatively, we see that a prior that places sufficient mass in the tail, such as the uniform or half-t prior, displays desirable and robust operating characteristics over a wide range of prior specifications, with the caveat that the upper bound of the uniform prior and the scale parameter of the half-t prior must be larger than 1. Conclusion: Based on the simulation results, we recommend that those involved in designing basket trials that implement hierarchical modeling avoid using a prior distribution that places a majority of the density mass near zero for the variance parameter. Priors with this property force the model to share information regardless of the true efficacy configuration of the baskets. Many commonly used inverse-gamma prior specifications have this undesirable property. We recommend to instead consider the more robust uniform prior or half-t prior on the standard deviation.

Studies in the Social and Economic History of Ostia

1938 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 152-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederick H. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Economic History ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Three Generations ◽  
The Social ◽  
History Of ◽  
The City ◽  
Made In

The first of these Studies was concerned chiefly with the history of Ostia during the period when the city was still growing and its prosperity increasing. Even so, during the period already considered, the prosperity of Ostia, though real, was to this extent artificial, in that it depended upon factors over which the citizens themselves had no control. Ostia was the port of Rome, and nothing else, and in consequence any lowering of the standard of living in, or reduction of imports into the capital city must have had immediate and marked repercussions upon her prosperity. She even lacked to a great extent those reserves of wealth which in other cities might be drawn upon to tide over bad times. The typical citizen of Ostia came to the city in the hope of making his fortune there; but when he had made it, he usually preferred to retire to some more pleasant town, such as Tibur, Tusculum, Velitrae, or Rome itself, where he could enjoy his leisure. Few families seem to have remained in the city for more than two, or, at the most, three generations. Whilst therefore fortunes were made in Ostia, wealth was not accumulated there.

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