Large-scale winds in the southern North Sea region: the wind part of the KNMI’14 climate change scenarios

Abstract. The objectives of the present investigation are (i) to study the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes and (ii) to assess the uncertainty in the climate projections. The investigation is performed on the Lech catchment, located in the Northern Limestone Alps. In order to estimate the uncertainty in the climate projections, two statistical downscaling models as well as a number of global and regional climate models were considered. The downscaling models applied are the Expanded Downscaling (XDS) technique and the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). The XDS model, which is driven by analyzed or simulated large-scale synoptic fields, has been calibrated using ECMWF-interim reanalysis data and local station data. LARS-WG is controlled through stochastic parameters representing local precipitation variability, which are calibrated from station data only. Changes in precipitation mean and variability as simulated by climate models were then used to perturb the parameters of LARS-WG in order to generate climate change scenarios. In our study we use climate simulations based on the A1B emission scenario. The results show that both downscaling models perform well in reproducing observed precipitation extremes. In general, the results demonstrate that the projections are highly variable. The choice of both the GCM and the downscaling method are found to be essential sources of uncertainty. For spring and autumn, a slight tendency toward an increase in the intensity of future precipitation extremes is obtained, as a number of simulations show statistically significant increases in the intensity of 90th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on wet days as well as the 5- and 20-yr return values.

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Impact of a wind climate change on the surge in the southern North Sea

Climate Research ◽

10.3354/cr008045 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

pp. 45-59 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

W Bijl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Sea ◽

Southern North Sea ◽

Wind Climate

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Elsterian ice‐sheet retreat in the southern North Sea: antecedent controls on large‐scale glaciotectonics and subglacial bed conditions

Boreas ◽

10.1111/bor.12410 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 49 (1) ◽

pp. 129-151 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Claire L. Mellett ◽

Emrys Phillips ◽

Jonathan R. Lee ◽

Carol J. Cotterill ◽

Tor Inge Tjelta ◽

...

Keyword(s):

North Sea ◽

Large Scale ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Southern North Sea

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Tidal wetland resilience to sea level rise increases their carbon sequestration capacity in United States

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-019-13294-z ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Faming Wang ◽

Xiaoliang Lu ◽

Christian J. Sanders ◽

Jianwu Tang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Large Scale ◽

Accumulation Rate ◽

C Sequestration ◽

Tidal Wetlands ◽

Tidal Wetland ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

AbstractCoastal wetlands are large reservoirs of soil carbon (C). However, the annual C accumulation rates contributing to the C storage in these systems have yet to be spatially estimated on a large scale. We synthesized C accumulation rate (CAR) in tidal wetlands of the conterminous United States (US), upscaled the CAR to national scale, and predicted trends based on climate change scenarios. Here, we show that the mean CAR is 161.8 ± 6 g Cm−2 yr−1, and the conterminous US tidal wetlands sequestrate 4.2–5.0 Tg C yr−1. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) largely regulates the CAR. The tidal wetland CAR is projected to increase in this century and continue their C sequestration capacity in all climate change scenarios, suggesting a strong resilience to sea level rise. These results serve as a baseline assessment of C accumulation in tidal wetlands of US, and indicate a significant C sink throughout this century.

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Assessing the feasibility of large-scale hydrogen storage in salt caverns on the UKCS using 3D seismic data

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10952 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hector Barnett ◽

Mark T. Ireland ◽

Sanem Acikalin

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Hydrogen Storage ◽

North Sea ◽

Seismic Data ◽

Large Scale ◽

3D Seismic ◽

Southern North Sea ◽

The Uk ◽

Salt Caverns ◽

3D Seismic Data

The energy industry in the UK faces a challenge to decarbonize to support reaching net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. In nearly all scenarios emission reductions are characterized not only by energy demand reductions, but also the decarbonization of electricity and heating. The use of hydrogen as a replacement for natural gas is one proposed solution, where renewable hydrogen is either blended into the gas grid or used directly. To ensure continuity of supply large scale hydrogen storage will be needed to meet this demand.Hydrogen has been stored in small volumes (<25GWh) in salt caverns at various locations onshore in the United Kingdom since 1959. These caverns store hydrogen for industrial usage. In order to meet the demand for energy related hydrogen storage an increasing number of new and potentially larger storage options will be needed. Engineering of larger salt caverns for a hydrogen energy system will require thick salt formations which are optimally located with respect to both the hydrogen production facility and the end use. The Permian and Triassic salts deposits of both the Southern North Sea and the East Irish Sea offer vast areas for potential cavern development. Previous studies have described the landscape of underground gas storage onshore and offshore the UK, but to date there have been few detailed geophysical and geological studies on the hydrogen storage potential offshore.The identification of suitable storage sites requires an understanding of the subsurface geology including potential structural discontinuities which could compromise the integrity of storage sites and be pathways for leakage. This analysis of hydrogen storage sites will utilise extensive existing modern 3D seismic data and well data taken from the Southern North Sea. We describe the geological setting of the Permo-triassic salt in the SNS in relation to the potential to develop salt cavern storage and develop play risk assessment maps. These risk assessment maps form part of a play fairway analysis workflow in order to identify the optimal storage sites for hydrogen on the UCKS.

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Drought modelling under climate change scenarios and its probabilistic characterization: A Review

WEENTECH Proceedings in Energy ◽

10.32438/wpe.382021 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 403-417

Author(s):

Amit Dubey ◽

Deepak Swami ◽

Nitin Joshi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Time Window ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Drought Forecasting ◽

Copula Models

ncrease in the water scarcity and the related rise in demand of water coupled with the threating events of climate change, ultimately witnessed drought in the recent years to occur frequently. Therefore, Drought hydrology is drawing most of the attention. Drought which is a natural hazard can be best characterized by various hydrological and climatological parameters. In order to model drought, researchers have applied various concepts starting from simplistic model to the complex ones. The suitability of different modelling approaches and their negative and positive traits are very essential to comprehend. This paper is an attempt to review various methodologies utilized in modelling of drought such as forecasting of drought, drought modelling based on probability, Global Climate Models (GCM) under climate change scenarios. It is obtained from the present study that the past three decades have witnessed a very significant improvement in the drought modelling studies. For the larger time window of drought forecasting, hybrid models which incorporates large scale climate indices are promisingly suitable. Drought characterization based on copula models for multivariate drought characterization seems to have an edge over the others. At the end some conclusive remarks are made as far as the future drought modelling and research is concerned.

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Future changes of circulation types associated with extremes over Sweden

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17931 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Felicitas Hansen ◽

Danijel Belusic ◽

Klaus Wyser

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Large Scale ◽

Extreme Values ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Historical Period ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Circulation Types ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

The large-scale atmospheric circulation is one of the most important factors influencing weather and climate conditions on different timescales. Its short- and long-term changes considerably determine both mean and extreme values of surface parameters like temperature or precipitation rates. Future changes of circulation patterns are of particular interest as these may significantly alter or amplify the expected thermodynamic changes due to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, albedo and land use. We analyse both historical as well as future climate simulations of the SMHI large ensemble (S-LENS) performed with the EC-Earth3 global climate model to examine large-scale circulation situations and their association to extremes in precipitation and temperature over Sweden. Various methods exist to classify mostly sea level pressure or geopotential height fields into characteristic circulation types, and we compare several of these methods for their applicability to represent precipitation and temperature variability over our region of interest. S-LENS consists of a 50-member ensemble for a historical period (1970-2014) and four 50-member climate change scenario ensembles covering the 21st century differing in terms of assumptions made for future radiative forcing development. We study the efficiency of circulation types in the historical period to give rise to extremes, and examine further the frequency and within-type changes of those circulation types associated with extremes by the middle and the end of the 21st century under the different climate change scenarios. S-LENS with its comparatively large number of both multi-decadal scenarios and realizations for each scenario serves as a perfect testbed to study potential changes in events of low frequency within the environment of a single model.

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Chaos in Estimates of Climate Change Impacts

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21065 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Emanuele Massetti ◽

Emanuele Di Lorenzo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Initial Conditions ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Internal Variability ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate System ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Exogenous Forcing

Estimates of physical, social and economic impacts of climate change are less accurate than usually thought because the impacts literature has largely neglected the internal variability of the climate system. Climate change scenarios are highly sensitive to the initial conditions of the climate system due the chaotic dynamics of weather. As the initial conditions of the climate system are unknown with a sufficiently high level of precision, each future climate scenario &#8211; for any given model parameterization and level of exogenous forcing &#8211; is only one of the many possible future realizations of climate. The impacts literature usually relies on only one realization randomly taken out of the full distribution of future climates. Here we use one of the few available large scale ensembles produced to study internal variability and an econometric model of climate change impacts on United States (US) agricultural productivity to show that the range of impacts is much larger than previously thought. Different ensemble members lead to significantly different impacts. Significant sign reversals are frequent. Relying only on one ensemble member leads to incorrect conclusions on the effect of climate change on agriculture in most of the US counties. Impacts studies should start using large scale ensembles of future climate change to predict damages. Climatologists should ramp-up efforts to run large ensembles for all GCMs, for at least the most frequently used scenarios of exogenous forcing.

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High-resolution seismic geomorphology and stratigraphy of a tunnel valley confined ice-margin fan (Elsterian glaciation, Southern North Sea)

Interpretation ◽

10.1190/int-2016-0026.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

pp. T461-T483 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Antonio Benvenuti ◽

Andrea Moscariello

Keyword(s):

Grain Size ◽

High Resolution ◽

Size Distribution ◽

Grain Size Distribution ◽

North Sea ◽

Large Scale ◽

Scale Up ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Middle Pleistocene ◽

Southern North Sea

The deep Middle Pleistocene subglacial incisions of the Southern North Sea (SNS) are commonly infilled by northward gently dipping clinoforms oriented toward the former ice-sheet core. We have focused on the terminal sector of the largest tunnel valley (TV) of the SNS and offer the first high-resolution reconstruction of the geomorphology and stratigraphy of the infill of the glacial incision, as well as the detailed geomorphology of the incision to better understand the genetic mechanisms of these uncommon but peculiar large-scale (up to 13 km in length) bedforms. For this study, high-resolution 3D seismic data, the grain-size distribution from ditch cutting samples, and the gamma-ray wireline log of borehole K14-12 are used. The TV formed in the subglacial environment by steady state flows in a time-transgressive fashion. Meltwater flow transports the eroded material southward and eventually deposits it at the ice-sheet margin, in the lightly grounded ice-sheet environment where the adverse slope forces the flow to wane. The process results in an elongated ice-margin fan made of clinoforms, whose grain-size distribution fines progressively southward, in the downstream direction. The formation and filling of the TV occurred during the retreat of the ice-sheet margin and cyclic fluctuations of the meltwater mass flow rate, which affected the internal stratigraphy and created an undulated top of the clinoforms’ unit. Sparsely distributed, horizontally layered units interpreted as distal proglacial lacustrine deposits filled depressions on the top of the clinoforms-bearing unit. The sequence was then sealed by a chaotic seismic-stratigraphic unit that probably belongs to postglacial times. The ice-sheet-oriented clinoforms were thus formed by sustained meltwater flow resulting from large-size Scandinavian and British convergent ice sheet flows in the freshwater environment of SNS developed between the complex ice margins and the topographic highs inherited from continental Europe.

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Verification of GCM-Generated Regional Seasonal Precipitation for Current Climate and of Statistical Downscaling Estimates under Changing Climate Conditions

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/1520-0442-12.1.258 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 258-272 ◽

Cited By ~ 62

Author(s):

Aristita Busuioc ◽

Hans von Storch ◽

Reiner Schnur

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Statistical Downscaling ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Scale ◽

The Other ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Seasonal Precipitation ◽

Empirical Downscaling

Abstract Empirical downscaling procedures relate large-scale atmospheric features with local features such as station rainfall in order to facilitate local scenarios of climate change. The purpose of the present paper is twofold: first, a downscaling technique is used as a diagnostic tool to verify the performance of climate models on the regional scale; second, a technique is proposed for verifying the validity of empirical downscaling procedures in climate change applications. The case considered is regional seasonal precipitation in Romania. The downscaling model is a regression based on canonical correlation analysis between observed station precipitation and European-scale sea level pressure (SLP). The climate models considered here are the T21 and T42 versions of the Hamburg ECHAM3 atmospheric GCM run in “time-slice” mode. The climate change scenario refers to the expected time of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations around the year 2050. The downscaling model is skillful for all seasons except spring. The general features of the large-scale SLP variability are reproduced fairly well by both GCMs in all seasons. The climate models reproduce the empirically determined precipitation–SLP link in winter, whereas the observed link is only partially captured for the other seasons. Thus, these models may be considered skillful with respect to regional precipitation during winter, and partially during the other seasons. Generally, applications of statistical downscaling to climate change scenarios have been based on the assumption that the empirical link between the large-scale and regional parameters remains valid under a changed climate. In this study, a rationale is proposed for this assumption by showing the consistency of the 2 × CO2 GCM scenarios in winter, derived directly from the gridpoint data, with the regional scenarios obtained through empirical downscaling. Since the skill of the GCMs in regional terms is already established, it is concluded that the downscaling technique is adequate for describing climatically changing regional and local conditions, at least for precipitation in Romania during winter.

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