Automated fire risk evaluation of electrical installations in the man-machine system
Abstract The article considers approaches to the formation of a system of criteria for assessing the electrical installations fire condition of the agricultural and industrial complex. Based on the analysis of the literature, the conclusion is made about the appropriateness of the use of expert assessments. To implement the decision, a group of experts was assembled, on the basis of whose knowledge a list of 42 parametersζ characterizing the fire condition of the electrical installation was determined. To identify the relationships and form a method for calculating the estimated value of fire risk, experts assessed the fire condition of 70 electrical installations of the agricultural and industrial complex of the region. A knowledge base was formed from the resulting values. As a method of data analysis, it was decided to use neural networks, but the available sample is not sufficient for high-quality training of a neural network. Therefore, the correlation method and the principal component method were considered, and based on the calculations, it was decided to use a training sample consisting of 6 principal components for training a neural network. A neural network was trained on these data and the values of the average error were obtained sufficiently low, which may indicate sufficient accuracy of the generated model. The article also presents a conceptual scheme of a software package for automating calculations in accordance with the developed model.