The Role of Uncertainty in Controlling Climate Change

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Equilibrium Temperature ◽

Inequality Aversion ◽

Carbon Taxes ◽

The Impact ◽

Climate Damages ◽

Economic Risks

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their geophysical sector determines the mean surface temperature increase over the preindustrial level, which in turn determines the damage function. Most of the existing IAMs assume that all of the future information is known. However, there are significant uncertainties in the climate and economic system, including parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, climate tipping risks, and economic risks. For example, climate sensitivity, a well-known parameter that measures how much the equilibrium temperature will change if the atmospheric carbon concentration doubles, can range from below 1 to more than 10 in the literature. Climate damages are also uncertain. Some researchers assume that climate damages are proportional to instantaneous output, while others assume that climate damages have a more persistent impact on economic growth. The spatial distribution of climate damages is also uncertain. Climate tipping risks represent (nearly) irreversible climate events that may lead to significant changes in the climate system, such as the Greenland ice sheet collapse, while the conditions, probability of tipping, duration, and associated damage are also uncertain. Technological progress in carbon capture and storage, adaptation, renewable energy, and energy efficiency are uncertain as well. Future international cooperation and implementation of international agreements in controlling climate change may vary over time, possibly due to economic risks, natural disasters, or social conflict. In the face of these uncertainties, policy makers have to provide a decision that considers important factors such as risk aversion, inequality aversion, and sustainability of the economy and ecosystem. Solving this problem may require richer and more realistic models than standard IAMs and advanced computational methods. The recent literature has shown that these uncertainties can be incorporated into IAMs and may change optimal climate policies significantly.

Environmental assessment of amending the Amager Bakke incineration plant in Copenhagen with carbon capture and storage

Waste Management & Research ◽

10.1177/0734242x211048125 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 0734242X2110481

Author(s):

V. Bisinella ◽

J. Nedenskov ◽

Christian Riber ◽

Tore Hulgaard ◽

Thomas H. Christensen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Waste Incineration ◽

Heat Output ◽

Net Energy ◽

District Heating System ◽

The Impact ◽

And Storage

Amending municipal solid waste incineration with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a new approach that can reduce the climate change impacts of waste incineration. This study provides a detailed analysis of the consequences of amending the new Amager Bakke incinerator in Copenhagen (capacity: 600,000 tonnes waste per year) with CCS as a post-combustion technology. Emphasis is on the changes in the energy flows and outputs as well as the environmental performance of the plant; the latter is assessed by life cycle assessment. Amending Amager Bakke with CCS of the chosen configuration reduces the electricity output by 50% due to steam use by the capture unit, but introducing post-capture flue gas condensation increases the heat output utilized in the Copenhagen district heating system by 20%. Thus, the overall net energy efficiency is not affected. The CCS amendment reduces the fossil CO2 emissions to 40 kg CO2 per tonne of incinerated waste and stores 530 kg biogenic CO2 per tonne of incinerated waste. Potential developments in the composition of the residual waste incinerated or in the energy systems that Amager Bakke interacts with, do not question the benefits of the CCS amendment. In terms of climate change impacts, considering different waste composition and energy system scenarios, introducing CCS reduces in average the impact of Amager Bakke by 850 kg CO2-equivalents per tonne of incinerated waste. CCS increases the environmental impacts in other categories, but not in the same order of magnitude as the savings introduced within climate change.

Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Fabian Stenzel ◽

Peter Greve ◽

Wolfgang Lucht ◽

Sylvia Tramberend ◽

Yoshihide Wada ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Stress ◽

Side Effects ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Land Use Patterns ◽

Use Patterns ◽

Severe Water Stress ◽

AbstractBioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations. Potential water stress resulting from the additional withdrawals warrants evaluation against the avoided climate change impact. Here we quantitatively assess potential side effects of BECCS with respect to water stress by disentangling the associated drivers (irrigated biomass plantations, climate, land use patterns) using comprehensive global model simulations. By considering a widespread use of irrigated biomass plantations, global warming by the end of the 21st century could be limited to 1.5 °C compared to a climate change scenario with 3 °C. However, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress in the BECCS scenario would double compared to today and even exceed the impact of climate change. Such side effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management were implemented globally.

What shapes public support for climate change mitigation policies? The role of descriptive social norms and elite cues

Behavioural Public Policy ◽

10.1017/bpp.2020.43 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-25

Author(s):

ADRIAN RINSCHEID ◽

SILVIA PIANTA ◽

ELKE U. WEBER

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Social Norms ◽

Climate Policy ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Experimental Manipulation ◽

Policy Support ◽

Descriptive Norms ◽

Climate Policies ◽

Abstract What are the roles of bottom-up and top-down signals in the formation of climate change policy preferences? Using a large sample of American residents (n = 1520) and combining an experimental manipulation of descriptive social norms with two choice experiments, we investigate the effects of descriptive norms and policy endorsements by key political actors on climate policy support. We study these questions in two areas considered to be central in a number of decarbonization pathways: the phase-out of fossil fuel-powered cars and the deployment of carbon capture and storage. Our study provides two important results. First, social norm interventions may be no silver bullet for increasing citizens’ support for ambitious climate policies. In fact, we not only find that climate policy support is unaffected by norm messages communicating an increased diffusion of pro-environmental behaviors, but also that norm messages communicating the prevalence of non-sustainable behaviors decrease policy support. Second, in the presence of policy endorsements by political parties, citizens’ trust in these parties influences their support for climate policies. This study contributes to research in behavioral climate policy by examining the impact of descriptive norms and elite cues on climate policy support.

Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

10.21203/rs.3.rs-70622/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Fabian Stenzel ◽

Peter Greve ◽

Wolfgang Lucht ◽

Sylvia Tramberend ◽

Yoshihide Wada ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Stress ◽

Side Effects ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Land Use Patterns ◽

Use Patterns ◽

Severe Water Stress ◽

Change Impact ◽

Abstract Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations. Potential water stress resulting from the additional withdrawals for irrigation warrants evaluation against the avoided climate change impact. Here we quantitatively assess potential side effects of BECCS with respect to water stress by disentangling the associated drivers (irrigated bioenergy, climate, land use patterns) using comprehensive global model simulations. By considering a widespread use of irrigated BECCS to limit global warming to 1.5°C, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress will double by the end of the 21st century, which could even exceed the impact of climate change avoided by the NEs (3°C warming). Such side-effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management would be implemented globally.

Could Climate Change Limit Water Availability for Coal-Fired Electricity Generation with Carbon Capture and Storage? A UK Case Study

Energy & Environment ◽

10.1260/0958-305x.23.2-3.265 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 23 (2-3) ◽

pp. 265-282 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Meleesa Naughton ◽

Richard C. Darton ◽

Fai Fung

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Electricity Generation ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Limiting Factor ◽

Regulatory Constraints ◽

Historical Factors ◽

The Impact ◽

And Storage

Anticipatory adaptation to climate change requires the impact of future changes in water availability to be investigated prior to deployment of low-carbon electricity generation infrastructure. Here we investigate whether climate change may limit water availability for a proposed coal-fired (CF) power station site with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). We find that climate change may pose constraints on water availability, and that regulatory constraints on water abstraction licences may affect CF electricity generation with CCS. The regulatory constraints associated with the current misalignment of water and energy policies are explored through interviews with stakeholders. We find that water availability has not been identified as a potential limiting factor for future CF electricity generation with CCS and that current UK energy policy, combined with economic and historical factors, may exacerbate the water demand of CF electricity generation with CCS. These issues need to be addressed prior to deployment of CCS technology.

Experimental study of the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient in porous media under reservoir conditions

Royal Society Open Science ◽

10.1098/rsos.181902 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (6) ◽

pp. 181902 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Junchen Lv ◽

Yuan Chi ◽

Changzhong Zhao ◽

Yi Zhang ◽

Hailin Mu

Keyword(s):

Porous Media ◽

Diffusion Coefficient ◽

Oil Recovery ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Elevated Pressure ◽

Experimental Results ◽

Saturated Porous Media ◽

Reservoir Conditions ◽

Reliable measurement of the CO 2 diffusion coefficient in consolidated oil-saturated porous media is critical for the design and performance of CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. A thorough experimental investigation of the supercritical CO 2 diffusion in n -decane-saturated Berea cores with permeabilities of 50 and 100 mD was conducted in this study at elevated pressure (10–25 MPa) and temperature (333.15–373.15 K), which simulated actual reservoir conditions. The supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficients in the Berea cores were calculated by a model appropriate for diffusion in porous media based on Fick's Law. The results show that the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient increases as the pressure, temperature and permeability increase. The supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient first increases slowly at 10 MPa and then grows significantly with increasing pressure. The impact of the pressure decreases at elevated temperature. The effect of permeability remains steady despite the temperature change during the experiments. The effect of gas state and porous media on the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient was further discussed by comparing the results of this study with previous study. Based on the experimental results, an empirical correlation for supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient in n -decane-saturated porous media was developed. The experimental results contribute to the study of supercritical CO 2 diffusion in compact porous media.

Early Holocene ocean conditions off the Zachariæ Isstrøm, Northeast Greenland

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15076 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Joanna Davies ◽

Anders Møller Mathiasen ◽

Kristiane Kristensen ◽

Christof Pearce ◽

Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Atlantic Water ◽

The Arctic ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Polar Regions ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Outlet Glacier ◽

The polar regions exhibit some of the most visible signs of climate change globally; annual mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has quadrupled in recent decades, from 51 &#177; 65 Gt yr&#8722;1 (1992-2001) to 211 &#177; 37 Gt yr&#8722;1 (2002-2011). This can partly be attributed to the widespread retreat and speed-up of marine-terminating glaciers. The Zachariae Isstr&#248;m (ZI) is an outlet glacier of the Northeast Greenland Ice Steam (NEGIS), one of the largest ice streams of the GrIS (700km), draining approximately 12% of the ice sheet interior. Observations show that the ZI began accelerating in 2000, resulting in the collapse of the floating ice shelf between 2002 and 2003. By 2014, the ice shelf extended over an area of 52km2, a 95% decrease in area since 2002, where it extended over 1040km2. Paleo-reconstructions provide an opportunity to extend observational records in order to understand the oceanic and climatic processes governing the position of the grounding zone of marine terminating glaciers and the extent of floating ice shelves. Such datasets are thus necessary if we are to constrain the impact of future climate change projections on the Arctic cryosphere.A multi-proxy approach, involving grain size, geochemical, foraminiferal and sedimentary analysis was applied to marine sediment core DA17-NG-ST8-92G, collected offshore of the ZI, on &#160;the Northeast Greenland Shelf. The aim was to reconstruct changes in the extent of the ZI and the palaeoceanographic conditions throughout the Early to Mid Holocene (c.a. 12,500-5,000 cal. yrs. BP). Evidence from the analysis of these datasets indicates that whilst there has been no grounded ice at the site over the last 12,500 years, the ice shelf of the ZI extended as a floating ice shelf over the site between 12,500 and 9,200 cal. yrs. BP, with the grounding line further inland from our study site. This was followed by a retreat in the ice shelf extent during the Holocene Thermal Maximum; this was likely to have been governed, in part, by basal melting driven by Atlantic Water (AW) recirculated from Svalbard or from the Arctic Ocean. Evidence from benthic foraminifera suggest that there was a shift from the dominance of AW to Polar Water at around 7,500 cal. yrs. BP, although the ice shelf did not expand again despite of this cooling of subsurface waters.

Investigation of Biomass Efficiency Assessment Methods of Open Green Areas for Sustainable Cities

Proceedings Article ◽

10.38027/iccaua2021298n13 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Mehmetali AK ◽

◽

Aslı GÜNEŞ GÖLBEY ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Quality ◽

Greenhouse Gases ◽

Carbon Emissions ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Biomass Productivity ◽

Renewable Energy Resources ◽

Green Areas ◽

And Storage

One of the most important environmental problems in today's world is climate change caused by greenhouse gases. Due to the increase in CO2 emissions from greenhouse gases, climate change is increasing and moving towards the point of no return. In this process, many ideas have been developed to combat climate change. One of these ideas is that cities should be sustainable. In order for cities to be sustainable, activities such as expanding the use of renewable energy resources in cities, increasing green and environmentally friendly transportation, improving air quality, and minimizing carbon emissions should be carried out. In this context, open green areas have important effects in terms of improving air quality, reducing the heat island effect in cities and especially keeping carbon emissions to a minimum. Thus, the efficiency and productivity of carbon capture and storage of green areas come to the fore. There are several methods to measure the carbon capture and storage efficiency of green areas and to evaluate their efficiency. In this study, the methods used in determining open green areas in cities and evaluating biomass productivity in these areas will be examined.

Economics of the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1814990116 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 116 (25) ◽

pp. 12261-12269 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

William Nordhaus

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Social Cost ◽

Climate Models ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Reduced Form ◽

Small Contribution ◽

Wide Range ◽

Concerns about the impact on large-scale earth systems have taken center stage in the scientific and economic analysis of climate change. The present study analyzes the economic impact of a potential disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS). The study introduces an approach that combines long-run economic growth models, climate models, and reduced-form GIS models. The study demonstrates that social cost–benefit analysis and damage-limiting strategies can be usefully extended to illuminate issues with major long-term consequences, as well as concerns such as potential tipping points, irreversibility, and hysteresis. A key finding is that, under a wide range of assumptions, the risk of GIS disintegration makes a small contribution to the optimal stringency of current policy or to the overall social cost of climate change. It finds that the cost of GIS disintegration adds less than 5% to the social cost of carbon (SCC) under alternative discount rates and estimates of the GIS dynamics.

Variations in snowpack melt on the Greenland ice sheet based on passive-microwave measurements

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s0022143000017755 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 41 (137) ◽

pp. 51-60 ◽

Cited By ~ 90

Author(s):

Thomas L. Mote ◽

Mark R. Anderson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Ablation Rate ◽

Passive Microwave ◽

Microwave Emission ◽

The Arctic ◽

Emission Model ◽

The Impact ◽

Microwave Data

AbstractA simple microwave-emission model is used to simulate 37 GHz brightness temperatures associated with snowpack-melt conditions for locations across the Greenland ice sheet. The simulated values are utilized as threshold values and compared to daily, gridded SMMR and SSM/I passive-microwave data, in order to reveal regions experiencing melt. The spatial extent of the area classified as melting is examined on a daily, monthly and seasonal (May-August) basis for 1979–91. The typical seasonal cycle of melt coverage shows melt beginning in late April, a rapid increase in the melting area from mid-May to mid-July, a rapid decrease in melt extent from late July through mid-August, and cessation of melt in late September. Seasonal averages of the daily melt extents demonstrate an apparent increase in melt coverage over the 13 year period of approximately 3.8% annually (significant at the 95% confidence interval). This increase is dominated by statistically significant positive trends in melt coverage during July and August in the west and southwest of the ice sheet. We find that a linear correlation between microwave-derived melt extent and a surface measure of ablation rate is significant in June and July but not August, so caution must be exercised in using the microwave-derived melt extents in August. Nevertheless, knowledge of the variability of snowpack melt on the Greenland ice sheet as derived from microwave data should prove useful in detecting climate change in the Arctic and examining the impact of climate change on the ice sheet.