Environmental Security and Climate Change

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Dalby
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Growth Failure ◽  
Environmental Security ◽  
Peace Building ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Fragile States ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth

Environmental security focuses on the ecological conditions necessary for sustainable development. It encompasses discussions of the relationships between environmental change and conflict as well as the larger global policy issues linking resources and international relations to the necessity for doing both development and security differently. Climate change has become an increasingly important part of the discussion as its consequences have become increasingly clear. What is not at all clear is in what circumstances climate change may turn out to be threat multiplier leading to conflict. Earth system science findings and the recognition of the scale of human transformations of nature in what is understood in the 21st century to be a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, now require environmental security to be thought of in terms of preventing the worst dangers of fragile states being unable to cope with the stresses caused by rapid environmental change or perhaps the economic disruptions caused by necessary transitions to a post fossil fueled economic system. But so far, at least, this focus on avoiding the worst consequences of future climate change has not displaced traditional policies of energy security that primarily ensure supplies of fossil fuels to power economic growth. Failure to make this transition will lead to further rapid disruptions of climate and add impetus to proposals to artificially intervene in the earth system using geoengineering techniques, which might in turn generate further conflicts from states with different interests in how the earth system is shaped in future. While the Paris Agreement on Climate Change recognized the urgency of tackling climate change, the topic has not become security policy priority for most states, nor yet for the United Nations, despite numerous policy efforts to securitize climate change and instigate emergency responses to deal with the issue. More optimistic interpretations of the future suggest possibilities of using environmental actions to facilitate peace building and a more constructive approach to shaping earth’s future.

scholarly journals Past climates inform our future

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 370 (6517) ◽  
pp. eaay3701
Author(s):  
Jessica E. Tierney ◽  
Christopher J. Poulsen ◽  
Isabel P. Montañez ◽  
Tripti Bhattacharya ◽  
Ran Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Earth System ◽  
High Carbon ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The World ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
High Carbon Dioxide

As the world warms, there is a profound need to improve projections of climate change. Although the latest Earth system models offer an unprecedented number of features, fundamental uncertainties continue to cloud our view of the future. Past climates provide the only opportunity to observe how the Earth system responds to high carbon dioxide, underlining a fundamental role for paleoclimatology in constraining future climate change. Here, we review the relevancy of paleoclimate information for climate prediction and discuss the prospects for emerging methodologies to further insights gained from past climates. Advances in proxy methods and interpretations pave the way for the use of past climates for model evaluation—a practice that we argue should be widely adopted.

Education on Global Climate and Environmental Change in University of China

2013 ◽  
Vol 838-841 ◽  
pp. 3195-3198
Author(s):  
Jian Cheng Kang ◽  
Xiaochen Su
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Ecological Civilization ◽  
Environment Change ◽  
Climate And Environmental Change ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Normal University

Global Climate and Environmental Change is an international hot field. To enhance native awareness on climate change is one mission of "State Policy and Action on Climate Change 2009 in China". As an implement, a course on Global Climate and Environmental Change has been opened in Shanghai Normal University since 2005. The course includes three fields. In the first field, it is introduced on which problems and harms have been caused from Global Climate and Environmental Changes according to UNEP Year Books 2003~2013. In the second field, to introduce the Earth System and Climate-Environment Change. In the third part, the hot climate-environmental issues are analyzed and discussed. By joining this course, the students have understanding earth system science and global change. It helped students to set up the view of ecological civilization of the harmonious development between human and nature, inspire students responsibility to protect the earth. During past 8 year, there were 4 to 5 classes opening for different levels in Shanghai Normal University for each year, more than 1000 students joined the study in the course.

scholarly journals Emergent Constraints on Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Cox
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Future ◽  
Emergent Constraints

Abstract Purpose of Review Feedbacks between CO2-induced climate change and the carbon cycle are now routinely represented in the Earth System Models (ESMs) that are used to make projections of future climate change. The inconclusion of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in climate projections is an important advance, but has added a significant new source of uncertainty. This review assesses the potential for emergent constraints to reduce the uncertainties associated with climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Recent Findings The emergent constraint technique involves using the full ensemble of models to find an across-ensemble relationship between an observable feature of the Earth System (such as a trend, interannual variation or change in seasonality) and an uncertain aspect of the future. Examples focussing on reducing uncertainties in future atmospheric CO2 concentration, carbon loss from tropical land under warming and CO2 fertilization of mid- and high-latitude photosynthesis are exemplars of these different types of emergent constraints. Summary The power of emergent constraints is that they use the enduring range in model projections to reduce uncertainty in the future of the real Earth System, but there are also risks that indiscriminate data-mining, and systematic model errors could yield misleading constraints. A hypothesis-driven theory-led approach can overcome these risks and also reveal the true promise of emergent constraints—not just as ways to reduce uncertainty in future climate change but also to catalyse advances in our understanding of the Earth System.

Updated attribution of GSAT changes and implications

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Ribes ◽  
Saïd Qasmi ◽  
Nathan Gillett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Substantial Fraction ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Warming Rate ◽  
Induced Changes

<p>The observed increase of global air surface temperature (GSAT) has long been attributed to human activities. However, updating estimates of human-induced changes, and changes induced by specific subsets of forcings (e.g., green-house gases) remains of high interest to better understand recent changes and also produce refined projections.</p><p>Here, we use the newest climate model ensemble (CMIP6), improved observations, and a new statistical method to narrow uncertainty on the response to historical forcings. In addition, we focus on estimating the total warming since the pre-industrial (using 1850-1900 as a reference baseline), while most previous studies considered shorter periods.</p><p>Results suggest that most of the observed warming since the pre-industrial (+1.22°C +/-0.15°C in 2020) is human-induced (+1.15°C +/-0.15°C) and that a substantial fraction of GHG-induced warming (+1.54°C +/-0.33°C) has been offset by other anthropogenic factors (-0.39°C +/-0.28°C). We also quantify the contribution of specific forcings to the 2010-2019 warming rate, suggesting that the current rate of human-induced warming is +0.22°C/decade (+/-0.05°C/decade). We then derive implications of these findings in terms of future climate change, i.e., the response to a range of scenarios. Our results suggest that historical observations and historical climate change are already very informative about future changes and the property of the Earth System in general.</p>

scholarly journals A Clear Past and a Murky Future: Life in the Anthropocene on the Pampana River, Sierra Leone

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Marcantonio ◽  
Agustin Fuentes
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Complex Adaptive Systems ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Adaptive Systems ◽  
Participant Observation ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Sierra Leonean ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Complex Adaptive

The impacts of human activities on ecosystems are significantly increasing the rate of environmental change in the earth system, reshaping the global landscape. The rapid rate of environmental change is disrupting the ability of millions of people around the globe to live their everyday lives and maintain their human niche. Evidence suggests that we have entered (or created) a new epoch, the Anthropocene, which is defined as the period in which humans and human activities are the primary drivers of planetary change. The Anthropocene denotes a global shift, but it is the collective of local processes. This is our frame for investigating local accounts of human-caused disruptive environmental change in the Pampana River in Tonkolili District, Northern Province, Sierra Leone. Since the end of the Sierra Leonean civil war in 2002, the country has experienced a rapid increase in extractive industries, namely mining. We explored the effects of this development by working with communities along the Pampana River in Tonkolili, with a specific focus given to engaging local fishermen through ethnographic interviews (N = 21 fishermen and 33 non-fishermen), focus group discussions (N = 21 fishermen), and participant observation. We deployed theoretical and methodological frameworks from human niche construction theory, complex adaptive systems, and ethnography to track disruptive environmental change in and on the Pampana from upstream activities and the concomitant shifts in the local human niche. We highlight the value of integrating ethnographic methods with human evolutionary theory, produce important insights about local human coping processes with disruptive environmental change, and help to further account for and understand the ongoing global process of human modification of the earth system in the Anthropocene.

Dryland Degradation and Expansion: Implications for Mexican Policies from the Earth System Perspective

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Gabriel Lopez Porras
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Science Policy ◽  
Land Degradation ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Sustainable Land Management ◽  
System Perspective ◽  
The Earth

Despite international efforts to stop dryland degradation and expansion, current dryland pathways are predicted to result in large-scale migration, growing poverty and famine, and increasing climate change, land degradation, conflicts and water scarcity. Earth system science has played a key role in analysing dryland problems, and has been even incorporated in global assessments such as the ones made by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. However, policies addressing dryland degradation, like the ‘Mexican programme for the promotion of sustainable land management’, do not embrace an Earth system perspective, so they do not consider the complexity and non-linearity that underlie dryland problems. By exploring how this Mexican programme could integrate the Earth system perspective, this paper discusses how ’Earth system’ policies could better address dryland degradation and expansion in the Anthropocene.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1938) ◽  
pp. 933-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan M. Haywood ◽  
Andy Ridgwell ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Daniel J. Hill ◽  
Matthew J. Pound ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Sensitivity ◽  
Earth History ◽  
Scientific Papers

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

scholarly journals Politics of Strata

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 211-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigel Clark
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Political Thought ◽  
Earth Science ◽  
Power Source ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Political Issue ◽  
The Third ◽  
Earth System Governance ◽  
The Earth

Modern western political thought revolves around globality, focusing on the partitioning and the connecting up of the earth’s surface. But climate change and the Anthropocene thesis raise pressing questions about human interchange with the geological and temporal depths of the earth. Drawing on contemporary earth science and the geophilosophy of Deleuze and Guattari, this article explores how geological strata are emerging as provocations for political issue formation. The first section reviews the emergence – and eventual turn away from – concern with ‘revolutions of the earth’ during the 18th- and 19th-century discovery of ‘geohistory’. The second section looks at the subterranean world both as an object of ‘downward’ looking territorial imperatives and as the ultimate power source of all socio-political life. The third section weighs up the prospects of ‘earth system governance’. The paper concludes with some general thoughts about the possibilities of ‘negotiating strata’ in more generative and judicious ways.

scholarly journals Organizing in the Anthropocene

Organization ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 455-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Wright ◽  
Daniel Nyberg ◽  
Lauren Rickards ◽  
James Freund
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Life Support ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Human Relations ◽  
Crucial Issue ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Introductory Article

The functioning of the biosphere and the Earth as a whole is being radically disrupted due to human activities, evident in climate change, toxic pollution and mass species extinction. Financialization and exponential growth in production, consumption and population now threaten our planet’s life-support systems. These profound changes have led Earth System scientists to argue we have now entered a new geological epoch – the Anthropocene. In this introductory article to the Special Issue, we first set out the origins of the Anthropocene and some of the key debates around this concept within the physical and social sciences. We then explore five key organizing narratives that inform current economic, technological, political and cultural understandings of the Anthropocene and link these to the contributions in this Special Issue. We argue that the Anthropocene is the crucial issue for organizational scholars to engage with in order to not only understand on-going anthropogenic problems but also help create alternative forms of organizing based on realistic Earth–human relations.

scholarly journals A Thought Experiment on Sustainable Management of the Earth System

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jobst Heitzig ◽  
Wolfram Barfuss ◽  
Jonathan F. Donges
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Game Theory ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Thought Experiment ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Right ◽  
Safe Operating ◽  
Qualitative Decision

We introduce and analyse a simple formal thought experiment designed to reflect a qualitative decision dilemma humanity might currently face in view of climate change. In it, each generation can choose between just two options, either setting humanity on a pathway to certain high wellbeing after one generation of suffering, or leaving the next generation in the same state as this one with the same options, but facing a continuous risk of permanent collapse. We analyse this abstract setup regarding the question of what the right choice would be both in a rationality-based framework including optimal control, welfare economics and game theory, and by means of other approaches based on the notions of responsibility, safe operating spaces, and sustainability paradigms. Despite the simplicity of the setup, we find a large diversity and disagreement of assessments both between and within these different approaches.

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