scholarly journals Forecasting the impacts of chemical pollution and climate change interactions on the health of wildlife

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 669-689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pamela D. Noyes ◽  
Sean C. Lema
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Chemical Pollution ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Chemical Toxicity ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Chemical Exposures

Abstract Global climate change is impacting organisms, biological communities and ecosystems around the world. While most research has focused on characterizing how the climate is changing, including modeling future climatic conditions and predicting the impacts of these conditions on biodiversity, it is also the case that climate change is altering the environmental impacts of chemical pollution. Future climate conditions are expected to influence both the worldwide distribution of chemicals and the toxicological consequences of chemical exposures to organisms. Many of the environmental changes associated with a warming global climate (e.g., increased average – and possibly extreme – temperatures; intense periods of drier and wetter conditions; reduced ocean pH; altered salinity dynamics in estuaries) have the potential to enhance organism susceptibility to chemical toxicity. Additionally, chemical exposures themselves may impair the ability of organisms to cope with the changing environmental conditions of the shifting climate. Such reciprocity in the interactions between climate change and chemicals illustrates the complexity inherent in predicting the toxicological consequences of chemical exposures under future climate scenarios. Here, we summarize what is currently known about the potential reciprocal effects of climate change and chemical toxicity on wildlife, and depict current approaches and ongoing challenges for incorporating climate effects into chemical testing and assessment. Given the rapid pace of new man-made chemistries, the development of accurate and rapid methods to evaluate multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors in an ecologically relevant context will be critical to understanding toxic and endocrine-disrupting effects of chemical pollutants under future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Predicting impacts of future climate change on the distribution of the widespread selaginellas (Selaginella ciliaris and S. plana) in Southeast Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 1960-1977
Author(s):  
AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN ◽  
JATNA SUPRIATNA ◽  
NISYAWATI NISYAWATI ◽  
SUTARNO SUTARNO ◽  
ILYAS NURSAMSI
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Early Period ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Nursamsi I. 2018. Predicting impacts of future climate change on the distribution of the widespread selaginellas (Selaginella ciliaris and S. plana) in Southeast Asia. Biodiversitas 19: 1960-1977. The current global climate is moving towards dangerous and unprecedented conditions that have been seen as a potentially devastating threat to the environment and all living things. Selaginella is a fern-allies that needs water as a medium for fertilization, hence its distribution is presumed to be affected by climate change. In Southeast Asia (SEA), there are two widely distributed selaginellas, namely Selaginella ciliaris and S. plana. S. ciliaris is a small herb (up to 4 cm), annual, abundant during the rainy season, and found in the middle-high plains, whereas S. plana is a stout large herb (up to 80 cm), perennial, and mainly found in the lowlands. The purpose of this study was to determine the potential niche distribution of S. ciliaris and S. plana under current climatic conditions, and to predict its future distribution under the impacts of climate change. We used Maxent software along with bioclimatic, edaphic, and UV radiation variables to model the potential niche distribution of those two selaginellas under current and future predictions climate conditions. We generated future predictions under four detailed bioclimatic scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) over three times intervals (2030, 2050, 2080). The results showed that future climatic conditions in the SEA had been predicted to significantly disrupt the distribution of suitable habitat of S. ciliaris and S. plana, and alter their geographic distribution patterns. Although some areas were predicted to become suitable habitat in the early period of future climate change, the overall projections show adverse effects of future climate conditions on the suitable habitat distribution of S. ciliaris and S. plana, as estimated losses of suitable habitat will be higher than the gains.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on the ecotoxicology of chemical contaminants in estuarine organisms

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 641-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie E. Delorenzo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Life Stage ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Chemical Pollution ◽  
Chemical Contaminants ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Mechanisms Of Toxicity ◽  
Estuarine Species ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract Global climate change effects will vary geographically, and effects on estuaries should be independently considered. This review of the impacts of climate change on the ecotoxicology of chemical contaminants aims to summarize responses that are specific to estuarine species. Estuarine organisms are uniquely adapted to large fluctuations in temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH, and yet future changes in climate may make them more susceptible to chemical contaminants. Recent research has highlighted the interactive effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors on chemical uptake, metabolism, and organism survival. Assessments have revealed that the nature of the interaction between climate variables and chemical pollution will depend on estuarine species and life stage, duration and timing of exposure, prior stressor exposure, and contaminant class. A need for further research to elucidate mechanisms of toxicity under different abiotic conditions and to incorporate climate change factors into toxicity testing was identified. These efforts will improve environmental risk assessment of chemical contaminants and management capabilities under changing climate conditions.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Tourist Climate Comfortable Period of China in a Changing Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Dan-Dan Yu ◽  
Shan Li ◽  
Zhong-Yang Guo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Changing Climate

The evaluation of climate comfort for tourism can provide information for tourists selecting destinations and tourism operators. Understanding how climate conditions for tourism evolve is increasingly important for strategic tourism planning, particularly in rapidly developing tourism markets like China in a changing climate. Multidimensional climate indices are needed to evaluate climate for tourism, and previous studies in China have used the much criticized “climate index” with low resolution climate data. This study uses the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and daily data from 775 weather stations to examine interregional differences in the tourist climate comfortable period (TCCP) across China and summarizes the spatiotemporal evolution of TCCP from 1981 to 2010 in a changing climate. Overall, most areas in China have an “excellent” climate for tourism, such that tourists may visit anytime with many choices available. The TCCP in most regions shows an increasing trend, and China benefits more from positive effects of climate change in climatic conditions for tourism, especially in spring and autumn. These results can provide some scientific evidence for understanding human settlement environmental constructions and further contribute in improving local or regional resilience responding to global climate change.

Copernicus Sectoral Information System for the Biodiversity Sector

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koen De Ridder ◽  
Filip Lefebre ◽  
Eline Vanuytrecht ◽  
Julie Berckmans ◽  
Hendrik Wouters
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Information System ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Use Cases ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climate Suitability

<p>Biodiversity is increasingly under pressure from climate change, which affects the habitat suitability for species as well as the efficiency of ecosystem services. Management of these issues, for instance through ecosystem restoration or species dispersal measures, is often hindered by a lack of appropriate information about (future) climate conditions.  To address this, an operational Sectoral Information System (SIS) for the Biodiversity sector (SIS Biodiversity) is designed within the Copernicus programme Climate Change Service (C3S). This new SIS provides tailored bio-climatic indicators and applications, and delivers novel evidence regarding impacts of past, present and future climate. As such, it provides support to decision making challenges that are currently facing unmet climate data needs.<br> <br>The new climate service for SIS Biodiversity will be demonstrated, including the outline, workflow and outcomes of the use cases. The service is built upon the Copernicus Data Store platform (CDS; ), and takes into account (1) the barriers in ongoing bio-climate assessments and (2) the user requirements of diverse stakeholders (e.g. researcher institutes, local NGO’s, the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN),…). These have been collected during workshops and bilateral meetings in 2019. A common barrier is the lack of reliable and high-resolution information about states and dynamics of the soil, sea, ice and air for the past and the future climate. Therefore, the service provides relevant bio-climatic indicators on the basis of a wealth of available variables from the latest ERA5 reanalysis datasets and the CMIP5 global climate projections available in CDS. In order to provide information at high resolution and minimize inconsistencies between observed and modelled variables, different downscaling and bias-correction techniques are applied. A common requirement is a universal and flexible interface to the bio-climatic indicators in an easy-to-use and coherent platform that is applicable for different fauna and flora species of interest. Therefore, different applications have been developed within CDS for generating bio-climate suitability envelopes from the high-resolution indicators and to evaluate climate suitability and impacts for the species under present and future climate. Finally, the service is currently tested and refined on the basis of specific use cases. Special attention is given to their transferability to other global and topical studies, hence maximizing external user uptake throughout existing research and policy networks.</p>

Impact of climate change on soil erosion and the efficiency of soil conservation practices in Austria

2010 ◽  
Vol 148 (5) ◽  
pp. 529-541 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. KLIK ◽  
J. EITZINGER
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Conservation ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThe goal of the present study was to assess the impact of selected soil protection measures on soil erosion and retention of rainwater in a 1·14 km2 watershed used for agriculture in the north-east of Austria. Watershed conditions under conventional tillage (CT), no-till (NT) and under grassland use were simulated using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) soil erosion model. The period 1961–90 was used as a reference and results were compared to future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and A2 (2040–60).The simulations for the NT and grassland options suggested runoff would decrease by 38 and 75%, respectively, under the current climatic conditions. The simulation results suggest that, under future climate scenarios, the effectiveness of the selected soil conservation measures with respect to runoff will be similar, or decreased by 16–53%.The actual average net soil losses in the watershed varied from 2·57 t/ha/yr for conventional soil management systems to 0.01 t/ha/yr for grassland. This corresponds to a maximum average annual loss of about 0·2 mm, which is considered to be the average annual soil formation rate and therefore an acceptable soil loss. The current soil/land use does not exceed this limit, with most of the erosion occurring during spring time. Under future climate scenarios, the simulations suggested that CT would either decrease soil erosion by up to 55% or increase it by up to 56%. Under these conditions, the acceptable limits will partly be exceeded. The simulations of NT suggested this would reduce annual soil loss rates (compared to CT) to 0·2 and 1·4 t/ha, i.e. about the same or slightly higher than for NT under actual conditions. The simulation of conversion to grassland suggested soil erosion was almost completely prevented.The selected soil conservation methods maintain their protective effect on soil resources, independent of the climate scenario. Therefore, with small adaptations, they can also be recommended as sustainable soil/land management systems under future climatic conditions.However, based on the available climate scenarios, climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainstorms were only considered in a limited way in the present work. As the general future trend indicates a strong increase of rainstorms with high intensity during summer months, the results of the present study may be too optimistic.

scholarly journals Potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two wild vectors of Chagas disease in Chile: Mepraia spinolai and Mepraia gajardoi

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubén Garrido ◽  
Antonella Bacigalupo ◽  
Francisco Peña-Gómez ◽  
Ramiro O. Bustamante ◽  
Pedro E. Cattan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Chagas Disease ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Pacific Side ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Risk Situation

Abstract Background Mepraia gajardoi and Mepraia spinolai are endemic triatomine vector species of Trypanosoma cruzi, a parasite that causes Chagas disease. These vectors inhabit arid, semiarid and Mediterranean areas of Chile. Mepraia gajardoi occurs from 18° to 25°S, and M. spinolai from 26° to 34°S. Even though both species are involved in T. cruzi transmission in the Pacific side of the Southern Cone of South America, no study has modelled their distributions at a regional scale. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the potential geographical distribution of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi under current and future climate scenarios. Methods We used the Maxent algorithm to model the ecological niche of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi, estimating their potential distributions from current climate information and projecting their distributions to future climatic conditions under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Future predictions of suitability were constructed considering both higher and lower public health risk situations. Results The current potential distributions of both species were broader than their known ranges. For both species, climate change projections for 2070 in RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios showed different results depending on the methodology used. The higher risk situation showed new suitable areas, but the lower risk situation modelled a net reduction in the future potential distribution areas of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi. Conclusions The suitable areas for both species may be greater than currently known, generating new challenges in terms of vector control and prevention. Under future climate conditions, these species could modify their potential geographical range. Preventive measures to avoid accidental human vectorial transmission by wild vectors of T. cruzi become critical considering the uncertainty of future suitable areas projected in this study.

Modelling the response of Mediterranean maize yields to projected climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simona Bassu ◽  
Davide Fumagalli ◽  
Andrea Toreti ◽  
Andrej Ceglar ◽  
Francesco Giunta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Sowing Dates

<p>Understanding the effects of different combinations of sowing dates and choice of cultivars on maize yield is essential to develop appropriate climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, we explore the maize yield response of two models to changes in sowing dates and cultivars. In particular, we assess whether crop conditions around flowering can explain the variability of irrigated, potential crop yields across sowing dates and cultivars in Mediterranean climatic conditions where high temperatures may change the length of the grain filling period. Then, we investigate these responses under future climate projected conditions till 2060 by using Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations.</p><p>Main findings show that the approach based on anthesis conditions outperforms the model based on partitioning. This holds both under current and future climate conditions. Finally, both approaches agree on a warmer climate translating into lower yields (13-18%, average reduction with respect to the current climate conditions) than can only be partially offset by changes in phenology and sowing dates.</p>

scholarly journals Odour Impact Assessment in a Changing Climate

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Piringer ◽  
Werner Knauder ◽  
Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer ◽  
Ivonne Anders ◽  
Konrad Andre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stability Classification ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

(1) Background: The impact of odour sources as stock farms on neighbouring residential areas might increase in the future because the relevant climatic parameters will be modified due to climate change. (2) Methodology: Separation distances are calculated for two Central European sites with considerable livestock activity influenced by different orographic and climatic conditions. Furthermore, two climate scenarios are considered, namely, the time period 1981–2010 (present climate) and the period 2036–2065 (future climate). Based on the provided climatic parameters, stability classes are derived as input for local-scale air pollution modelling. The separation distances are determined using the Lagrangian particle diffusion model LASAT. (3) Results: Main findings comprise the changes of stability classes between the present and the future climate and the resulting changes in the modelled odour impact. Model results based on different schemes for stability classification are compared. With respect to the selected climate scenarios and the variety of the stability schemes, a bandwidth of affected separation distances results. (4) Conclusions: The investigation reveals to what extent livestock husbandry will have to adapt to climate change, e.g., with impacts on today’s licensing processes.

scholarly journals Risk of flood to the light of global climate change in Northeastern Argentina

2000 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliseo Popolizio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Quaternary Period ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Northeastern Region

During the 20th century, several catastrophic pluvial and fluvial floods took place over the northeastern region of Argentina. These disastrous floods caused great damage worth hundreds of millions of US dollars. The rehabilitation programme was supported by regional economies. The idea of this paper is to point out the risks of greater floods as a consequence of the global climatic change. The experiences obtained from the palaeogeomorphological research, historical data over the regional rivers, and the climatic and environmental changes are taken into account in this research. The record of the geomorphological study of the region strongly suggests that in past epochs, different wet and dry periods occurred with the global climate change, especially in the Quaternary Period. It is possible to infer that the region is very sensitive to these changes and anthropogenic action. On the other hand, environmental and climatic conditions show a tendency of tropicalising the area. In this case, consequences are unpredictable if the processes are evolving rapidly. It is possible to observe that after the 1960's, the characteristics of the fluvial courses are changing. The changes are in the direction of the maximum and minimum amplitudes with the same mean values. Besides, the frequency of large floods has increased from the 1960’s. The Parana River, the largest fluvial course of the region, serves as a model for the propositions mentioned above. This is because we have historical records from 1748 on high flood levels and hydrometrical measurements from 1900. The northeastern region is a very vast and flat plain with an inefficient drainage system. This physical framework induces pluvial flooding, which covers millions of hectares. True catastrophes develop when pluvial and fluvial floods coincide. The record of overflows has a recurrence period of less than 50 years. This strongly suggests a very high risk. In the 21st century, it is very probable that flooding phenomena greater than known will occur. But no mitigation measures are planned to face them.

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

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