scholarly journals Large-scale sport events and COVID-19 infection effects: Evidence from the German professional soccer ’experiment’

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Breidenbach ◽  
Timo Mitze
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Significant Treatment ◽  
Professional Soccer ◽  
Sport Events

Abstract This paper studies the effects of large-scale sport events with live spectators on COVID-19 infection trends at the local population level. Specifically, we compare the development of incidence rates in 41 German NUTS-3 districts hosting a professional soccer match with at least 1,000 spectators vis-á -vis similar districts without hosting a match. Our empirical analysis builds on difference-in-difference and dynamic event study estimation for panel data. Synthetic control method is applied as robustness check. While our findings generally do not point to significant treatment effects for the full sample of match locations, we find some noteworthy exceptions: Districts hosting first league matches with an above median number of spectators (approx. >6, 300) and, particularly, matches without strict face mask requirements experienced a significant relative rise in incidence rates 14 days after the match. We also find that intra-district mobility increases on matchdays in treated districts highlighting the significance of professional soccer matches as mobility-based transmission channel.

scholarly journals Identification of the geographical extent of an area benefiting from a transportation project: A generalized synthetic control

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-45
Author(s):  
Takara Kunimi ◽  
Hajime Seya
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation System ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Land Prices ◽  
Multiple Treatment ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Actual Outcome ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Treated Site

In evaluating the benefits of an infrastructure project, it is essential to consider who is benefiting from the project and where benefits are located. However, there is no established way to accurately determine the latter. To fill this methodological gap, this study proposes an approach for the ex-post identification of the geographical extent of an area benefiting from a transportation project based on a generalized synthetic control method. Specifically, it allows comparing multiple treatment units with their counterfactuals in a single run—changes in land prices (actual outcome) at each treated site are compared to the counterfactual outcome, and the individual (i.e., unit-level) treatment effect on the treated site is then estimated. This approach is empirically applied to a large-scale Japanese heavy railway, the Tsukuba Express line project. Our approach enables the detection of 1) the complicated spatial shape of benefit incidence; 2) negative spillovers; and 3) the increase in options (train routes), typically not considered in a benefit evaluation system based on the hedonic approach, but which can be capitalized into land prices.

scholarly journals The Effects of Stringent Interventions for Coronavirus Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Tian ◽  
Wenxiang Luo ◽  
Yukang Jiang ◽  
Minqiong Chen ◽  
Canhong Wen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Expected Number ◽  
Significant Treatment ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Urban City ◽  
Longitudinal Effects ◽  
Great Public Health

The pandemic of COVID-19 has caused severe public health consequences around the world. Many interventions of COVID-19 have been implemented. It is of great public health and societal importance to evaluate the effects of interventions in the pandemic of COVID-19. In this paper, with help of synthetic control method, regression discontinuity and a Susceptible-Infected and infectious without isolation-Hospitalized in isolation-Removed (SIHR) model, we evaluate the horizontal and longitudinal effects of stringent interventions implemented in Wenzhou, a representative urban city of China, where stringent interventions were enforced to curb its own epidemic situation with rapidly increasing newly confirmed cases. We found that there were statistically significant treatment effects of those stringent interventions which reduced the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19. Those reduction effects would increase over time. Also, if the stringent interventions were delayed by 2 days or mild interventions were implemented instead, the expected number of cumulative confirmed cases would have been nearly 2 times or 5 times of the actual number. The effects of stringent interventions are significant in mitigating the epidemic situation of COVID-19. The slower the interventions were implemented, the more severe the epidemic would have been, and the stronger the interventions would have been required.

scholarly journals Implications of vaccination and waning immunity

2009 ◽  
Vol 276 (1664) ◽  
pp. 2071-2080 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.M. Heffernan ◽  
M.J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Model Formulation ◽  
Immunological Mechanisms ◽  
Waning Immunity ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
Disease Free

For infectious diseases where immunization can offer lifelong protection, a variety of simple models can be used to explain the utility of vaccination as a control method. However, for many diseases, immunity wanes over time and is subsequently enhanced (boosted) by asymptomatic encounters with the infection. The study of this type of epidemiological process requires a model formulation that can capture both the within-host dynamics of the pathogen and immune system as well as the associated population-level transmission dynamics. Here, we parametrize such a model for measles and show how vaccination can have a range of unexpected consequences as it reduces the natural boosting of immunity as well as reducing the number of naive susceptibles. In particular, we show that moderate waning times (40–80 years) and high levels of vaccination (greater than 70%) can induce large-scale oscillations with substantial numbers of symptomatic cases being generated at the peak. In addition, we predict that, after a long disease-free period, the introduction of infection will lead to far larger epidemics than that predicted by standard models. These results have clear implications for the long-term success of any vaccination campaign and highlight the need for a sound understanding of the immunological mechanisms of immunity and vaccination.

Do Local Immigrant-Welcoming Efforts Increase Immigration? The Detroit Experience

2021 ◽  
pp. 107808742110252
Author(s):  
Xi Huang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Local Population ◽  
The United States ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Skilled Immigrants ◽  
The Past

Immigration policymaking has been active at the local level in the United States over the past few decades. This study examines whether the economic development-oriented immigrant-welcoming efforts that started in 2010 in Detroit have increased the local immigrant population. It uses the synthetic control method to construct a comparison region that resembles Detroit in the preintervention periods to serve as a counterfactual. Empirical results reveal a statistically significant increase in the immigrant share of the population in the metropolitan area during the postintervention period of 2011–2014. The increase is robust to various sets of specifications and placebo tests. The share of high-skilled immigrants in the local population also increased during this time, albeit with a weak statistical significance. These findings point to the potential of immigrant-welcoming programs in attracting and retaining immigrants and immigrant talent.

Do elite soccer players cover longer distance when losing? Differences between attackers and defenders

2020 ◽  
pp. 174795412098227
Author(s):  
Carlos Lago-Peñas ◽  
Anton Kalén ◽  
Miguel Lorenzo-Martinez ◽  
Roberto López-Del Campo ◽  
Ricardo Resta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Tracking System ◽  
Soccer Players ◽  
Running Performance ◽  
Situational Variables ◽  
Total Distance ◽  
Professional Soccer ◽  
Score Line

This study aimed to evaluate the effects playing position, match location (home or away), quality of opposition (strong or weak), effective playing time (total time minus stoppages), and score-line on physical match performance in professional soccer players using a large-scale analysis. A total of 10,739 individual match observations of outfield players competing in the Spanish La Liga during the 2018–2019 season were recorded using a computerized tracking system (TRACAB, Chyronhego, New York, USA). The players were classified into five positions (central defenders, players = 94; external defenders, players = 82; central midfielders, players = 101; external midfielders, players = 72; and forwards, players = 67) and the following match running performance categories were considered: total distance covered, low-speed running (LSR) distance (0–14 km · h−1), medium-speed running (MSR) distance (14–21 km · h−1), high-speed running (HSR) distance (>21 km · h−1), very HSR (VHSR) distance (21–24 km · h−1), sprint distance (>24 km · h−1) Overall, match running performance was highly dependent on situational variables, especially the score-line condition (winning, drawing, losing). Moreover, the score-line affected players running performance differently depending on their playing position. Losing status increased the total distance and the distance covered at MSR, HSR, VHSR and Sprint by defenders, while attacking players showed the opposite trend. These findings may help coaches and managers to better understand the effects of situational variables on physical performance in La Liga and could be used to develop a model for predicting the physical activity profile in competition.

scholarly journals A Strong Seasonality Pattern for Covid-19 Incidence Rates Modulated by UV Radiation Levels

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 574
Author(s):  
Christos Karapiperis ◽  
Panos Kouklis ◽  
Stelios Papastratos ◽  
Anastasia Chasapi ◽  
Antoine Danchin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Uv Radiation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Strong Seasonality

The Covid-19 pandemic has required nonpharmaceutical interventions, primarily physical distancing, personal hygiene and face mask use, to limit community transmission, irrespective of seasons. In fact, the seasonality attributes of this pandemic remain one of its biggest unknowns. Early studies based on past experience from respiratory diseases focused on temperature or humidity, with disappointing results. Our hypothesis that ultraviolet (UV) radiation levels might be a factor and a more appropriate parameter has emerged as an alternative to assess seasonality and exploit it for public health policies. Using geographical, socioeconomic and epidemiological criteria, we selected twelve North-equatorial-South countries with similar characteristics. We then obtained UV levels, mobility and Covid-19 daily incidence rates for nearly the entire 2020. Using machine learning, we demonstrated that UV radiation strongly associated with incidence rates, more so than mobility did, indicating that UV is a key seasonality indicator for Covid-19, irrespective of the initial conditions of the epidemic. Our findings can inform the implementation of public health emergency measures, partly based on seasons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as the pandemic unfolds into 2021.

Applying Synthetic Control Method to Estimate the Impact of the Lava Jato Operation on the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil

2021 ◽  
pp. 2631309X2110178
Author(s):  
Eduardo Carvalho Nepomuceno Alencar ◽  
Bryant Jackson-Green
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Legal Judgments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Control Of Corruption

In 2014, the most prominent anti-corruption investigation in Latin America called Lava Jato, exposed a Brazilian corruption scheme with reverberations in 61 countries, resulting in legal judgments for nearly 5 billion USD in reimbursements thus far. This article applies the synthetic control method on data from 135 countries (2002–2018) to test the hypothesis that Lava Jato impacts the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil. The findings reveal that Lava Jato negatively affects control of corruption, the rule of law, and regulatory quality. There are signs of possible improvement in at least the corruption and the rule of law measures. This paper brings value to the criminological body of literature, notably lacking in the Global South.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document