scholarly journals Can Helping the Sick Hurt the Able? Incentives, Information and Disruption in a Welfare Reform

2019 ◽  
Vol 129 (624) ◽  
pp. 3189-3218
Author(s):  
Felix Koenig ◽  
Barbara Petrongolo ◽  
John Van Reenen ◽  
Nitika Bagaria
Keyword(s):  
Welfare Reform ◽  
Unemployment Insurance ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Unemployment Benefit ◽  
Disability Benefit ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Political Costs ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Uk

Abstract The UK Jobcentre Plus reform sharpened bureaucratic incentives to help disability benefit recipients (relative to unemployment insurance recipients) into jobs. In the long run, the policy raised exits off diasability benefits by 10% and left unemployment outflows roughly unchanged, consistent with (i) beneficial effects of reorganising welfare offices for both groups, and (ii) a shift in bureaucrats' efforts towards getting disability benefit recipients into jobs relative to those on unemployment benefit. The policy accounted for about 30% of the decline in the aggregate disability rolls between 2003 and 2008. In the short run, however, we detect a reduction in unemployment exits and no effect on disability exits, suggesting important initial disruption effects from the big reorganisation. This highlights the difficulty of welfare reform as policymakers may focus on the short-run political costs rather than the long-run economic benefits.

Reducing the Impact of Unemployment through Work-Sharing: Some Industrial Relations Considerations

1983 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noah M. Meltz ◽  
Frank Reid
Keyword(s):  
Local Level ◽  
Industrial Relations ◽  
National Level ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Labour Relations ◽  
Work Sharing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The Canadian Government has introduced a work-sharing program in which lay offs are avoided by reducing the work week and using unemployment insurance funds to pay workers short-time compensation. Compared to the lay-off alternative, there appear to be economic benefits to work-sharing for both management and employees. Reaction to the scheme has been generally positive at the union local level and the firm level, but it has been negative at the national level of both labour and management. These divergent views can be explained mainly as a result of short-run versus long-run perspectives. Managers at the firm level see the immediate benefit of improved labour relations and the avoidance of the costs of hiring and training replacements for laid-off workers who do not respond when recalled. The national business leaders are more concerned with work incentive and efficiency aspects of work-sharing.

Is Reputation Good or Bad? An Experiment

2010 ◽  
Vol 100 (5) ◽  
pp. 2187-2204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brit Grosskopf ◽  
Rajiv Sarin
Keyword(s):  
Laboratory Experiment ◽  
Harmful Effect ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Other Regarding ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Other Regarding Preferences ◽  
Do So

We investigate the impact of reputation in a laboratory experiment. We do so by varying whether the past choices of a long-run player are observable by the short-run players. Our framework allows for reputation to have either a beneficial or a harmful effect on the long-run player. We find that reputation is seldom harmful and its beneficial effects are not as strong as theory suggests. When reputational concerns are at odds with other-regarding preferences, we find the latter overwhelm the former. (JEL C91, D12, D82, D83, Z13)

A Long View of the UK Business Cycle

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 72-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagjit S. Chadha ◽  
Charles Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk ◽  
External Sector

We outline a number of ‘stylised’ facts on the UK business cycle obtained from analysis of the long-run UK annual dataset. The findings are to some extent standard. Consumption and investment are pro-cyclical, with productivity playing a dominant role in explaining business cycle fluctuations at all horizons. Money neutrality obtains over the long run but there is clear evidence of non-neutrality over the short run, particularly at the business cycle frequencies. Business cycle relationships with the external sector via the real exchange rate and current account are notable. Postwar, the price level is counter-cyclical and real wages are pro-cyclical, as are nominal interest rates. Modern general equilibrium macroeconomic models capture many of these patterns.

scholarly journals Untangling the nonlinear “knots” of UK’s housing prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1083-1103
Author(s):  
Constantinos Alexiou ◽  
Sofoklis Vogiazas
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Uk

Purpose Housing prices in the UK offer an inspiring, yet a complex and under-explored research area. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the critical factors that affect UK’s housing prices. Design/methodology/approach The authors utilize the recently developed nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) over the period 1969–2016. Findings The authors find that both the long-run and short-run impact of the price-to-rent (PTR) ratio and credit-to-GDP ratio on house prices (HP) is asymmetric whilst ambiguous results are established for mortgage rates, industrial production and equities. Apart from the novel framework of analysis, this study also establishes a positive association between HP and the PTR ratio which suggests a speculative behaviour and could imply the formation of a housing bubble. Originality/value It is the first study for the UK housing market that explores the underlying fundamental relationships by looking at nonlinearities hence, allowing HP to be tied by asymmetric relationships in the long as well as in the short run. Modelling the inherent nonlinearities enhances significantly the understanding of UK housing market which can prove useful for policymaking and forecasting purposes.

scholarly journals Are EU Members’ Economies an “Engine” of the EU Candidates’ Economies?

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-117
Author(s):  
Marija Radulović ◽  
Milan Kostić
Keyword(s):  
Developing Country ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Research background: Economic relations between countries members of the EU and EU candidates are very strong. Germany and France have the leading economies of the EU, are in the top ten economies worldwide, and drivers of EU development. Serbia has strong economic relations with Germany and France, especially with Germany. Therefore, it is necessary to examine whether Germany and France impact the development of Serbia. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to determine if there is a positive influence of a developed country on a developing country. The aim of the paper is to determine whether there is a long- and short-term positive relationship between Germany and France (EU members) and the Serbian economy (EU candidate). Research methodology: A Vector Error Correction Model is used to analyze quarterly data from 2002Q2 to 2018Q2. Results: The results showed a statistically significant long-term relationship between Germany and France and Serbia’s real GDPs, so EU members have a long-term positive impact on the economy of EU candidates. In the case of the French, there is a short-run positive impact on the Serbian economy. For Germany, it is not the case. Novelty: This paper fills the literature gap about the influence of a developed country on a developing country. Recommendations for policymakers in EU candidates could be that if they want to motivate people to accept the process of access to the EU, they must provide them with more information about long-run economic benefits from the association to the EU.

scholarly journals Taking the high road: The politics of win-win approaches

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Gingrich
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Healthy Ageing ◽  
Elderly Age ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Uk ◽  
High Road

Abstract Background Policy is rarely a direct reflection of public opinion. Party systems and patterns of political competition shape the way issues are presented in politics and the incentive politicians have to act on them. Despite the alleged pro-elderly bias of many political institutions in European countries, and the potential for some types of spending on the elderly to provide broader social benefits, policymakers often do not introduce the most effective policies for supporting healthy ageing. Methods Political manifestos and voting patterns will be examined in order to determine how/if public opinions are translating into changes in government that want to tear down the welfare state and blame it on ageing. Results Although it is true that public spending (e.g. pensions, health) on the elderly remains more extensive and insulated from cuts than other forms of spending, second, in many (not all) countries policies that would help the elderly age in a healthy way are to introduced. These latter policies, which include spending on the poorest elderly, ensuring access to high quality home care and other services, and investing in declining regions where elderly people are often disproportionately likely to live, often are limited. Conclusions Where cross-class/cross-generational coalitions come together to address gender inequities (among the elderly and working age), and develop public services, high road models are possible. Where conflict is framed largely inter-generationally, the well-being of pensioners may be preserved in the short-run, but less investment in the long-run infrastructure of healthy ageing emerges. To make these arguments, the paper shows descriptive patterns of policy developments from the 1980s to today, combined with a brief case study of the UK.

scholarly journals The Political Costs of Reforms

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (08) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Ciminelli ◽  
Davide Furceri ◽  
Jun Ge ◽  
Jonathan Ostry ◽  
Chris Papageorgiou
Keyword(s):  
Developing Economies ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
The Political ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Political Costs ◽  
Reform Strategies ◽  
Political Cost ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
Policy Agendas

Many countries are experiencing persistent, weak medium-term growth and limited fiscal space. Against this background, economic policy agendas—in both advanced and developing economies—are focusing increasingly on structural reforms. While there is broad agreement on the economic benefits of structural reforms, the political-economy of reform is less settled. This is because reforms may generate gains only in the longer term while distributional effects may be sizable in the short run, and because governments may lack political capital to confront vocal interest groups. In these circumstances, politicians may hold back on reforms, fearing they will be penalized at the ballot box. The aim of this Staff Discussion Note is to examine whether the fear of a political cost associated with structural reforms is justified by the available evidence, and whether there are lessons from the data about how reform strategies might be designed to mitigate potential political costs. It provides a major addition to recent IMF analysis examining the output and employment effect of reforms

scholarly journals Event Tourism Demand and Selected Macroeconomic Variables: An Econometrics View of the Long-Run and Short-Run Relationships

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-196
Author(s):  
Sally Ann Yu-Ing Yap ◽  
Norazirah Ayob ◽  
Chin-Hong Puah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Normality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Growth Increase ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Event Tourism ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Assessing the substantial economic benefits of event tourism will provide insight into the effectiveness of tourism event in Malaysia.The significance of the tourism event sector has the potential to boost Malaysia’s economic growth, increase the arrivalof international tourists, increase tourist expenditure and further job creations.This study empirically investigates determinantsof event tourism demand in Malaysia during the period of 1991Q1to 2016Q4. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniqueis used to find the long-run cointegration relationshipsof the model. The model is further tested by employing diagnostic tests(Normality test, Serial Autocorrelation, Heteroscedasticity and Ramsey’s RESET test) and stability tests(CUSUM and CUSUMSQ). The empirical analysis of the boundstest indicatesthat there is a long-run cointegration among the variables under study. Besides that, the ARDL model produces reliable results,as all of the computed coefficientsof the independent variables are statistically significant with the expected signs. The findings are consistent witheconomic theory and the model passed all of the diagnostic tests.The findings of this study imply that event demand can be improved significantly when government spending,theexchange rate and tourist receipts increaseand the crude oil price decreases. Hence, government authorities and the private sector should createan integrated plan to enhancethe profit gained through the Malaysian economyfrom event tourism.

scholarly journals Trade Liberalisation in SADC and the Economic Benefits of belonging to an RTA: The case of Tanzania

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nzeyimana Dyegula ◽  
Francis - Lwesya
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Good Prospect ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Trade Regime ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Tariff Reductions

This paper examines the dynamics of trade liberalisation in the Southern Development Community (SADC), region and the economic benefits that Tanzania derives from SADC membership. The paper uses qualitative analysis and trade indices. The findings show that SADC is far behind its agreed schedule of transforming the region into a customs union and SADC intra-regional trade is very low, only South Africa and Mozambique seem to carry the potential to increase intraregional trade and benefit from SADC in the short run. On the other hand, Tanzania's economic benefits from SADC membership have remained trivial, though her exports and market share have been steadily increasing since the mid 1990s. However, Tanzania does not suffer adversely from the dual membership of EAC and SADC regions, despite its membership in the two overlapping RTAs making its trade regime complex because tariff reductions under EAC customs union are not compatible with SADC's hence resulting in problems in implementing the SADC Trade Protocol. However, the country may not need to withdraw  its membership from either EAC or SADC due to signs of good prospect in the long run under the proposed harmonisation of the EAC and SADC trade regime through the Tripartiite Free Trade Area arrangement (COMESA-EAC-SADC).

Stock market co-movement, domestic economic policy and the macroeconomic trilemma: the case of the UK (1922–2016)

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
German Forero-Laverde
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Uk

This article explores the global cycle hypothesis by testing whether the US stock market serves as an explanatory variable for the evolution of expansions and contractions in the UK stock market from 1922 until 2016. Alternatively, it tests an index that groups the stock markets of advanced economies to identify whether this driving force is international. Second, regarding co-movement with the US, the article explores whether its time-varying nature is contingent on the domestic and international economic policy regimes. I find evidence that there is a strong and contemporaneous co-movement between the US and UK stock markets. Additionally, through a VAR model, I identify that the movements in the UK stock market cause, in the Granger sense, changes in the index for advanced economies up to two years later. Furthermore, in the short-run co-movement between the US and UK stock markets is contingent on the macroeconomic trilemma while, in the long run, both domestic and international policy regimes affect the relationship. A final contribution is the design of a new methodology for describing the evolution of financial time series as risk-adjusted above or below average returns to different time horizons: the Local Bull Bear Indicators (LBBIs).

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