scholarly journals 2MACE score predicts cardiovascular adverse events in real-world atrial fibrillation patients under rivaroxaban therapy. Data from EMIR study

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Esteve Pastor ◽  
F Marin ◽  
M Anguita ◽  
M Sanmartin ◽  
C Rafols ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Atrial Fibrillation (AF) patients have higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). In 2015, the 2MACE score (2 points for metabolic syndrome and age ≥75, and 1 point for myocardial infarction [MI] or revascularization, congestive heart failure [ejection fraction ≤40%] and thromboembolism [stroke or transient ischemic attack]) was described to stratify cardiovascular risk and 2MACE≥3 was related with high risk of MACE in AF patients but a long-term validation in prospective patients under direct anticoagulants has not been performed yet. The aim of this study was to analyse the incidence of cardiovascular events and to validate the 2MACE score as predictor of MACEs. Methods EMIR study [acronym from 'Estudio observacional para la identificaciόn de los factores de riesgo asociados a eventos cardiovasculares Mayores en pacientes con fIbrilaciόn auricular no valvular tratados con un anticoagulante oral directo (Rivaroxaban)'] was an observational, multicenter, post-authorization and prospective study that involved AF patients under oral anticoagulation with rivaroxaban at least 6 months before enrolment. We analyzed baseline clinical characteristics and adverse events after 2.5 years of follow up: annual incidence of thromboembolic events, MACE (composite of nonfatal MI, coronary revascularization and cardiac death) and cardiovascular mortality were analyzed. Results We analyzed 1,433 patients (55.5% women, mean 74.2±9.7 years). 385 (26.9%) patients had 2MACE score ≥3 and of those high-risk patients, 42.1% had previous coronary disease, 12.5% had previous peripheral artery disease, 40.7% had diabetes mellitus, 39% heart failure and 50% had chronic kidney disease (GFR<60 ml/min). After 2.5 (2.2–2.6) years of follow-up, we observed patients with 2MACE score ≥3 had higher rate of adverse events (Table), specially of higher rate of cardiovascular mortality and MACE. Patients with 2MACE score ≥3 had RR 4.09 (2.59–6.45; p<0.001) for MACE. Indeed, patients with 2MACE score ≥3 had around 6-fold risk of cardiovascular death due heart failure than patients with 2MACE score <3 (0.17%/year vs 1.09%/year; p=0.003). 2MACE score had suitable predictive performance for MACE (AUC 0.638 [(0.534–0.742); p=0.010). Conclusion In a Real-world AF patients under rivaroxaban therapy from EMIR registry, the 2MACE score is a good predictor of long-term cardiovascular events, MACE and major bleeding. A 2MACE score ≥3 categorize patients at “high-risk” with almost 4-fold risk of MACE in a long-term follow-up. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): Bayer Hispania S.L. Table 1. Adverse events according to 2MACE

2018 ◽  
Vol 118 (02) ◽  
pp. 279-287 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Esteve-Pastor ◽  
José Rivera-Caravaca ◽  
Inmaculada Roldán-Rabadán ◽  
Vanessa Roldán ◽  
Javier Muñiz ◽  
...  

Background One-third of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients have chronic kidney disease (CKD), a condition that itself increases thromboembolic and major bleeding risks, especially in patients with severe CKD. Bleeding would be accentuated by suboptimal anticoagulation control with vitamin K antagonists (VKA). Purpose This article aimed to investigate the incidence of cardiovascular events, mortality and quality of anticoagulation in relation to CKD in a ‘real-world’ prospective cohort of AF patients included in the FANTASIIA registry. Methods We analysed consecutive AF patients who were prospectively recruited with a year of follow-up. The quality of anticoagulation was estimated by time in therapeutic range (TTR). The annual incidence of events was analysed. Results We studied 1,936 patients (male: 55.7%, mean: 73.8 ± 9.4 years): 445 (22.9%) had normal function, 698 (36.1%) had mild CKD, 713 (36.8%) had moderate CKD and 80 (4.2%) had severe CKD. Patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (severe CKD) had lower TTR (53.3 ± 25.6% vs. 61.8 ± 25.1%, p = 0.007) and higher proportion of poor TTR (67.2 vs. 51.8%; p = 0.014) than patients with eGFR ≥30 mL/min/1.73 m2. Severe CKD was significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 9.33; p = 0.002), major bleeding (HR: 2.94; p = 0.036) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (HR: 4.93; p = 0.004). Importantly, 375 patients (21.1%) showed a deteriorating eGFR of ≥10 mL/min during the follow-up, with significantly higher mortality and cardiovascular events. Conclusion In a prospective and real-world AF registry, approximately 67% of patients with severe CKD had poor anticoagulation control while taking VKA. The presence of severe CKD was an independent factor for cardiovascular mortality, MACE and major bleeding. Worsening eGFR of only ≥10 mL/min during follow-up was significantly associated with mortality and major bleeding.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Samuel ◽  
M Abrahamowicz ◽  
J Joza ◽  
V Essebag ◽  
L Pilote

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are common co-existing conditions. Randomized trial data suggests a reduction in all-cause mortality with catheter ablation (CA) in selected patients, however, whether these results are replicable in a real-world population and persist in the long-term remains to be shown. Purpose To evaluate the long-term effectiveness of CA in AF-HF patients in reducing the incidence of: a) all-cause mortality b) HF hospitalizations, and c) major morbidities (stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) and major bleeding). Methods A population-based administrative cohort was created of AF-HF patients with government prescription coverage in Quebec, Canada (1999–2015). Patients who underwent CA (cases) were matched 1:2 to controls using risk-set sampling. Cases were matched on time in the cohort and frequency of hospitalizations. Measured time-invariant confounders were controlled for using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and included age, sex, clinical characteristics, presence of cardiac implantable electronic devices, and medication use. Multivariable Cox models adjusted the association of CA with the outcomes for the time varying confounders of the presence of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), anticoagulation use (warfarin or direct oral anticoagulation), and any antiarrhythmic (AAD) use during follow-up. For non-fatal outcomes, the competing risk of death was accounted for using the Lunn-McNeil approach. Results Of the 87,676 AF-HF patients, 298 underwent CA and were matched to 591 controls. After IPTW, the distribution of covariates was balanced between cases and controls [age 65.6±11.0 vs 61.6±11.6; women 24% vs 20%; CHA2DS2-Vasc score 3.2±2.3 vs 2.9±2.1; CA vs non-CA, respectively; standardized mean differences <0.1 for all]. Over a median follow-up of 3.3 (IQR 1.1–6.4) years, 19 (7.3%) of CA patients died compared to 144 (24.6%) non-CA patients. After weighting and adjustment, CA was associated with a statistically significant reduction in the incidence of all-cause mortality [adjusted HR 0.5 (95% CI 0.3–0.9)]. In addition, there was no statistically significant difference in the incidence of HF hospitalizations over the follow-up [CA: 22.5% vs non-CA: 27.1%; adjusted HR 0.9 (95% CI 0.6–1.2)]. The incidences of stroke/TIA (1.7% vs 6.8%) and major bleeding (1.7% vs 4.9%) for CA vs non-CA were not statistically different. Conclusion In a matched population-based AF-HF cohort, CA was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality compared to patients who did not undergo CA. Although no difference in the risk of HF hospitalizations, stroke/TIA, and major bleeding was detected between CA and non-CA patients, larger studies are warranted. Acknowledgement/Funding Canadian Institute of Health Research; Fonds de recherché du Quebec-Santé, Clinical Research Scholar Award (V. Essebag) and Doctoral Award (M. Samuel)


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan ◽  
Danish Iltaf Satti ◽  
Yan Hiu Athena Lee ◽  
Jeremy Man Ho Hui ◽  
Teddy Tai Loy Lee ◽  
...  

Background: Dyslipidaemia is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. However, the long-term prognostic value of visit-to-visit cholesterol variability for the risks of heart failure (HF) is uncertain. We investigated the associations between cholesterol variability and the risk of HF and adverse cardiovascular events. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included patients attending family medicine clinics in Hong Kong during 2000-2003 with follow-up until 2019. Patients with at least three sets of blood cholesterol (low-density (LDL-C) and high-density (HDL-C) lipoprotein cholesterol) levels available at different visits were included. Patients with prior HF, myocardial infarction (MI), use of HF medications, and pregnancy were excluded. Visit-to-visit variability was calculated using standard deviation and coefficient of variation (CV). The primary outcome was HF. The secondary outcomes were cardiovascular mortality, and myocardial infarction. Results: A total of 5662 patients were included (2152 males; mean age 63.3+/-12.4 years; mean follow-up 15.3+/-4.6 years). Higher variability of HDL-C (hazard ratio (HR) for CV: 13.757 [6.261, 30.226], p<0.0001) predicted new-onset HF. Higher variability of LDL-C (HR for CV: 3.885 [1.942, 7.775], p=0.0001) and HDL-C (HR for CV: 39.118 [13.583, 112.657], p<0.0001) predicted higher risk of MI, but not cardiovascular mortality. These associations remained significant in patients without baseline usage of lipid-lowering medication(s) (N=4068), but were all insignificant in patients with baseline usage of lipid-lowering medication(s) (N=1594). Conclusion: Higher visit-to-visit cholesterol variability was varyingly associated with significantly increased long-term risks of HF and adverse cardiovascular events. Such associations may be negated by using lipid-lowering medication(s).


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
K Stepien ◽  
P Furczynska ◽  
M Zalewska ◽  
K Nowak ◽  
A Wlodarczyk ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Recently heart failure (HF) has been found to be a new dementia risk factor, nevertheless their relations in patients following HF decompensation remain unknown. Purpose We sought to investigate whether a screening diagnosis for dementia (SDD) in this high-risk population may predict unfavorable long-term clinical outcomes. Methods 142 patients following HF decompensation requiring hospitalization were enrolled. Within a median time of 55 months all patients were screened for dementia with ALFI-MMSE scale whereas their compliance was assessed with the Morisky Medication Adherence Scale. Any incidents of myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), revascularization, HF hospitalization and bleedings during follow-up were collected. Results SDD was established in 37 patients (26%) based on the result of an ALFI-MMSE score of &lt;17 points. By multivariate analysis the lower results of the ALFI-MMSE score were associated with a history of stroke/TIA (β=−0.29, P&lt;0.001), peripheral arterial disease (PAD) (β=−0.20, P=0.011) and lower glomerular filtration rate (β=0.24, P=0.009). During the follow-up, patients with SDD were more often rehospitalized following HF decompensation (48.7% vs 28.6%, P=0.014) than patients without SDD, despite a similar level of compliance (P=0.25). Irrespective of stroke/TIA history, SDD independently increased the risk of rehospitalization due to HF decompensation (HR 2.22, 95% CI 1.23–4.01, P=0.007). Conclusions As shown for the first time in literature patients following decompensated HF, a history of stroke/TIA, PAD and impaired renal function independently influenced SDD. In this high-risk population, SDD was not associated with patients' compliance but irrespective of the stroke/TIA history it increased the risk of recurrent HF hospitalization. The survival free of rehospitalization Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
S.L Xu ◽  
J Luo ◽  
H.Q Li ◽  
Z.Q Li ◽  
B.X Liu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) complicating acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has been associated with poor survival, but the clinical implication of NOAF on subsequent heart failure (HF) is still not well studied. We aimed to investigate the relationship between NOAF following AMI and HF hospitalization. Methods This retrospective cohort study was conducted between February 2014 and March 2018, using data from the New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Complicating Acute Myocardial Infarction in ShangHai registry, where all participants did not have a documented AF history. Patients with AMI who discharged alive and had complete echocardiography and follow-up data were analyzed. The primary outcome was HF hospitalization, which was defined as a minimum of an overnight hospital stay of a participant who presented with symptoms and signs of HF or received intravenous diuretics. Results A total of 2075 patients were included, of whom 228 developed NOAF during the index AMI hospitalization. During up to 5 years of follow-up (median: 2.7 years), 205 patients (9.9%) experienced HF hospitalization and 220 patients (10.6%) died. The incidence rate of HF hospitalization among patients with NOAF was 18.4% per year compared with 2.8% per year for those with sinus rhythm. After adjustment for confounders, NOAF was significantly associated with HF hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.14, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.30–4.28; p&lt;0.001). Consistent result was observed after accounting for the competing risk of all-cause death (subdistribution HR: 3.06, 95% CI: 2.18–4.30; p&lt;0.001) or performing a propensity score adjusted multivariable model (HR: 3.28, 95% CI: 2.39–4.50; p&lt;0.001). Furthermore, the risk of HF hospitalization was significantly higher in patients with persistent NOAF (HR: 5.81; 95% CI: 3.59–9.41) compared with that in those with transient NOAF (HR: 2.61; 95% CI: 1.84–3.70; p interaction = 0.008). Conclusion NOAF complicating AMI is strongly associated with an increased long-term risk of heart. Cumulative incidence of outcome Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): 1. National Natural Science Foundation of China, 2. Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Kato ◽  
K Usuda ◽  
H Tada ◽  
T Tsuda ◽  
K Takeuchi ◽  
...  

Abstract Background High plasma B-Type natriuretic peptide (BNP) level is associated with cardiac events or stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, it is still unknown whether BNP predicts worse clinical outcomes after catheter ablation ofAF. Purpose We aimed to see if plasma BNP level is associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) after catheter ablation of AF. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 1,853 participants (73.1% men, mean age 63.3±10.3 years, 60.7% paroxysmal AF) who received first catheter ablation of AF with pre-ablation plasma BNP level measurement and completed follow-up more than 3 months after the procedure from AF Frontier Ablation Registry, a multicenter cohort study in Japan. We evaluated an association between plasma BNP level before catheter ablation and first MACCE in cox-regression hazard models adjusted for known risk factors. MACCE were defined as stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), cardiovascular events or all-cause death. Results The mean plasma BNP level was 120.2±3.7 pg/mL. During a mean follow-up period of 21.9 months, 57 patients (3.1%) suffered MACCE (ischemic stroke 8 [14.0%], hemorrhagic stroke 5 [8.8%], TIA 5 [8.8%], hospitalization for heart failure 11 [19.2%], acute coronary syndrome 9 [15.8%], hospitalization for other cardiovascular events 8 [14.0%] and all-cause death 11 [19.2%]). Plasma BNP level of patients with MACCE were significantly higher than those without MACCE (291.7±47.0 vs 114.7±3.42 pg/mL, P&lt;0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that plasma BNP level (hazard ratio [HR] per 10 pg/mL increase 1.014; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.005–1.023; P=0.001), baseline age (HR 1.052; 95% CI 1.022–1.084; P=0.001), heart failure (HR 2.698; 95% CI 1.512–4.815; P=0.001), old myocardial infarction (HR 3.593; 95% CI 1.675–7.708; P=0.001) and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (HR 2.676; 95% CI 1.337 - 5.355; P=0.005) were independently associated with MACCE. At receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, plasma BNP level before catheter ablation ≥162.7 pg/mL was the best threshold to predict MACCE (area under the curve: 0.71). Kaplan-Meier curve analysis (Figure) showed that the cumulative incidence of MACCE was significantly higher in patients with a BNP ≥162.7 pg/mL than in those with a BNP below 162.7 pg/mL (HR 4.85; 95% CI 2.86–8.21; P&lt;0.001). Conclusions Elevation of plasma BNP level was independently related to the increased risk of MACCE after catheter ablation ofAF. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): Bristol-Meiers Squibb


Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobutoyo Masunaga ◽  
Hisashi Ogawa ◽  
Yuya Aono ◽  
Syuhei Ikeda ◽  
KOSUKE DOI ◽  
...  

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients are likely to have concomitant coronary artery disease (CAD). A new strategy of antithrombotic therapy in AF patients with stable CAD was demonstrated in recent randomized clinical trials. Now that antithrombotic therapy for AF patients with CAD has reached a major turning point, it is important to know the prognostic factors in those patients. Purpose: In this study, we investigated clinical characteristics, cardiovascular events and prognostic factors in AF patients with CAD. Methods: The Fushimi AF Registry, a community-based prospective survey, was designed to enroll all of the AF patients who visited the participating medical institutions in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. Follow up data including prescription status were available in 4,441 patients from March 2011 to November 2019. Of 4,441 patients, 645 patients had a history of CAD at enrollment. Results: The mean age was 76.4±8.6 and 65.9% were male. Averages of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score and HAS-BLED score were 4.41 and 2.35, respectively. Oral anticoagulant (OAC) was prescribed in 52.9% of those patients and antiplatelet drug (APD) was prescribed in 70.4%. The combination of OAC and APD was prescribed in 36.0%. During follow-up period (median 1,495 days), cardiac death occurred in 51 patients, composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in 136, and major bleeding in 77 (1.8, 5.1 and 2.9 per 100 person-years, respectively). In multivariate analysis, factors associated with composite of cardiac death, MI and stroke in AF patients with CAD were low body weight (<=50kg) (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]; 1.62 [1.07-2.47]), previous stroke (1.69 [1.13-2.52]), heart failure (1.47 [1.02-2.11]), hypertension (0.60 [0.41-0.87]) and diabetes mellitus (1.62 [1.13-2.32]). Furthermore, factors associated with major bleeding in AF patients with CAD were anemia (male: hemoglobin<12 g/dl, female: hemoglobin<11 g/dl) (1.82 [1.09-3.04]) and thrombocytopenia (<150,000 /μL) (3.02 [1.29-7.03]). Conclusion: In Japanese AF patients with CAD, low body weight, previous stroke, heart failure, hypertension and diabetes mellitus were associated with cardiovascular events, and anemia and thrombocytopenia were associated with major bleeding.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
C X Song ◽  
R Fu ◽  
J G Yang ◽  
K F Dou ◽  
Y J Yang

Abstract Background Controversy exists regarding the use of beta-blockers (BBs) among patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in contemporary reperfusion era. Previous studies predominantly focused on beta-blockers prescribed at discharge, and the effect of long-term adherence to beta-blocker on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) remains unclear. Objective To explore the association between long-term beta-blocker use patterns and MACE among contemporary AMI patients. Methods We enrolled 7860 patients with AMI, who were discharged alive and prescribed with BBs based on CAMI registry from January 2013 to September 2014. Patients were divided into two groups according to BBs use pattern: Always users group (n=4476) were defined as patients reporting BBs use at both 6- and 12-month follow-up; Inconsistent users group were defined as patients reporting at least once not using BBs at 6- or 12-month follow-up. Primary outcome was defined as MACE at 24-month follow-up, including all-cause death, non-fatal MI and repeat-revascularization. Multivariable cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the association between BBs and MACE. Results Baseline characteristics are shown in table 1. At 2-year follow-up, 518 patients in inconsistent users group (15.6%) and 548 patients in always users group (12.3%) had MACE. After multivariable adjustment, inconsistent use of BBs was associated with higher risk of MACE (HR: 1.323, 95% CI: 1.171–1.493, p<0.001). Table 1 Baseline characteristics Variable Always user (N=4476) Inconsistent user (N=3384) P value Age (years) 60.6±12.0 61.2±12.2 <0.001 Male 3381 (75.7%) 2461 (74.3%) 0.084 Diabetes 892 (20.0%) 610 (18.4%) 0.003 Hypertension 2372 (53.2%) 1543 (46.6%) <0.001 Dyslipidemia 244 (5.5%) 126 (3.8%) <0.001 Prior myocardial infarction 351 (7.9%) 232 (7.0%) <0.001 Heart failure 88 (2.0%) 63 (1.9%) <0.001 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 66 (1.5%) 60 (1.8%) <0.001 Current smoker 2054 (46.1%) 1579 (47.8%) 0.179 Left ventricular ejection fraction (%) 53.7±11.48 54.0±10.9 <0.001 Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events 548 (12.3%) 518 (15.6%) <0.001 Conclusions Our results showed consistent BBs use was associated with reduced risk of MACE among patients with AMI managed by contemporary treatment. Acknowledgement/Funding CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (2016-I2M-1-009)


2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S R Lee ◽  
E K Choi ◽  
K D Han ◽  
S Oh ◽  
G Y H Lip

Abstract Background Although unhealthy or healthy lifestyle behaviors tend to be clustered, studies on the risk of clinical outcomes depending on how the lifestyle behaviors are managed after atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosis remain limited. Purpose We aimed to evaluate the association between a cluster of healthy lifestyle behaviors and the risk of adverse outcomes in patients with AF. Methods Using the Korean National Insurance Service database, patients who were newly diagnosed as nonvalvular AF between 2009 and 2016 and received national health screening examination within 2-year after AF diagnosis were included. A healthy lifestyle behavior score (HLS) was calculated by assigning 1 point each for “non-current” smoking, for non-drinking, and for performing regular exercise from the self-reported questionnaire in health screening examinations. The primary outcome was defined as major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), including ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, and hospitalization for heart failure. The secondary outcomes included individual components of the primary composite outcome and all-cause death. Results A total of 208,662 patients were included and 7.1%, 22.7%, 58.6%, and 11.6% were HLS 0, 1, 2, and 3 group, respectively. After multivariable adjustment, patients with HLS 1, 2, and 3 were associated with lower risks of MACE compared to those with HLS 0 (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.788 [0.762–0.855], 0.654 [0.604–0.708], and 0.579 [0.527–0.636], respectively) (Figure). Increased number of healthy lifestyle behaviors were associated with lower risks of ischemic stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, and all-cause death. The risk reduction of healthy lifestyle combinations was consistently observed in various subgroups, regardless of CHA2DS2-VASc score and oral anticoagulant use. Conclusion Increased number of healthy lifestyle behaviors were significantly associated with lower MACE and all-cause death risks in patients with new-onset AF. These findings support the promotion of a healthy lifestyle to reduce the risk of adverse events in AF patients. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-22
Author(s):  
Farida Hanum Margolang ◽  
Refli Hasan ◽  
Abdul Halim Raynaldo ◽  
Harris Hasan ◽  
Ali Nafiah ◽  
...  

Background: Acute heart failure is a global health problem with high morbidity and mortality. Short term and long term prognosis of these patients is poor. Therefore, early identification of patients at high risk for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) during hospitalization was needed to improve outcome. Creatinine levels at admission could be used as predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events in acute heart failure patients because creatinine is a simple and routine biomarker of renal function examined in patients with acute heart failure. This study aimed to determine whether creatinine can be used as a predictor of major adverse adverse cardiovascular events in patients with acute heart failure.Methods: This study is a prospective cohort study of 108 acute heart failure patients treated at H. Adam Malik Hospital from July 2018 to January 2019. Creatinine cut-off points were determined using the ROC curve, then bivariate and multivariate analyzes were performed to determine predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events during hospitalization.Results: From 108 study subjects, 24 (22.2%) subjects experienced major adverse cardiovascular events during hospitalization. The subjects who died were 20 people (83.4%), subjects with arrhythmia were 2 people (8.3%), and those who had stroke were 2 people (8.3 %). Through the ROC curve analysis, we found creatinine cut-off values of ≥1.7 mg / dl (AUC 0.899, 95% CI 0.840- 0.957, p <0.05). Creatinine ≥1.7 mg/dl could predict major adverse cardiovascular events with a sensitivity of 87.5% and specificity of 79.5%. Multivariate analysis showed that creatinine ≥1.7 mg / dl was an independent factor to predict MACEs during hospitalization in this study (OR 18,310, p 0.001) as well as creatinine clearance and heart rate.Conclusion: Creatinine levels at admission is an independent predictor for major adverse cardiovascular events during hospitalization in acute heart failure patients.


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