P5639Risk stratification for mortality using electrocardiographic markers based on 24-hour holter recordings: the JANIES-SHD study

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Kinoshita ◽  
K Hashimoto ◽  
K Yoshioka ◽  
Y Miwa ◽  
K Yodogawa ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Recent guidelines have stated that reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is the gold standard marker for identifying patients at risk for cardiac mortality. Although reduced LVEF identifies patients at an increased risk of cardiac arrest, sudden cardiac deaths (SCDs) occur considerably more often in patients with relatively preserved LVEF. Current guidelines on SCD risk stratification do not adequately cover this general population pool. Several noninvasive electrocardiographic (ECG) risk stratifiers that reflect depolarization abnormality, repolarization abnormality, and autonomic imbalance have been evaluated so far. With current therapeutic advances using new medicines or devices, an LVEF is often preserved in patients with structural heart disease (SHD). However, the usefulness of noninvasive ECG markers for risk stratification in such a patient population has not yet been elucidated. Purpose This study aimed to assess clinical indices and ECG markers based on 24-hour Holter ECG recordings for predicting cardiac mortality in patients with SHD who have left ventricular dysfunction (LVD) but relatively preserved LVEF. Methods In total, 1,829 patients were enrolled into the Japanese Multicenter Observational Prospective Study (JANIES study). In this study, we analyzed data of 719 patients (569 men, age 64±13 years) with SHD including mainly ischemic heart disease (65.8%). As ECG markers based on 24-hour Holter recordings, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT), ventricular late potentials, and heart rate turbulence (HRT) were assessed. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, and the secondary endpoint was fatal arrhythmic events. Results During a mean follow-up of 21±11 months, all-cause mortality was eventually observed in 39 patients (5.4%). Among those patients, 32 patients (82%) suffered from cardiac causes such as heart failure and arrhythmia. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that after adjustment for age and LVEF, documented NSVT (hazard ratio=2.82, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.38–5.76, P=0.005) and abnormal HRT (hazard ratio=2.31, 95% CI: 1.15–4.65, P=0.02) were significantly associated with the primary endpoint. These two ECG markers also had significant predictive values with the secondary endpoint. The combined assessment documented NSVT and abnormal HRT improved predictive accuracy. Conclusion This study demonstrated that combined assessment of documented NSVT and abnormal HRT based on 24-hour Holter ECG recordings are recommended for predicting future serious events in SHD patients who have relatively preserved LVEF. Acknowledgement/Funding Grants-in-Aid (21590909, 24591074, and 15K09103 to T.I.) for Scientific Research from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technol

Author(s):  
Yuanwei Xu ◽  
Jiayi Lin ◽  
Yaodan Liang ◽  
Ke Wan ◽  
Weihao Li ◽  
...  

Abstract Aims To evaluate the prognostic value of left ventricular (LV) remodelling index (RI) in idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) patients. Methods and results We prospectively enrolled 412 idiopathic DCM patients and 130 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers who underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging between September 2013 and March 2018. RI was defined as the cubic root of the LV end-diastolic volume divided by the mean LV wall thickness on basal short-axis slice. The primary endpoint included all-cause mortality and heart transplantation. The secondary endpoint included the primary endpoint and heart failure (HF) readmission. During the median follow-up of 28.1 months (interquartile range: 19.3–43.0 months), 62 (15.0%) and 143 (34.7%) patients reached the primary and secondary endpoints, respectively. Stepwise multivariate Cox regression showed that RI [hazard ratio (HR) 1.20, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11–1.30, P < 0.001], late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) presence and log (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) were independent predictors of the primary endpoint, while RI (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.08–1.23, P < 0.001) and extracellular volume were independent predictors of the secondary endpoint. The addition of RI to LV ejection fraction (EF) and LGE presence showed significantly improved global χ2 for predicting primary and secondary endpoints (both P < 0.001). Furthermore, RI derived from echocardiography also showed independent prognostic value for primary and secondary endpoints with clinical risk factors. Conclusions RI is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality, heart transplantation, and HF readmission in DCM patients and provides incremental prognostic value to LVEF and LGE presence.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
E Cenko ◽  
M Van Der Schaar ◽  
J Yoon ◽  
Z Vasiljevic ◽  
S Kedev ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Patients with diabetes and non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) have an increased risk of mortality and adverse outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Purpose We aimed to investigate the impact of early, within 24 hours PCI compared with only routine medical treatment on clinical outcomes in a large international cohort of patients with NSTE-ACS and diabetes. Methods We identified 1,250 patients with diabetes and NSTE-ACS from a registry-based population between October 2010 and April 2016. The primary endpoint was 30-day all-cause mortality. The secondary endpoint was the composite outcome of 30-day all-cause mortality and left ventricular dysfunction (ejection fraction <40%). We undertook analyses to explore the heterogeneity of treatment effects using meta-classification (MC) algorithms followed by propensity score matching and inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) from a landmark of 24 hours from hospitalization. Results Of 1,250 NSTE-ACS first-day survivors with diabetes (median age 67 years; 59%, men), 470 (37.6%) received early PCI and 780 routine medical treatment. The overall 30-day all-cause mortality rates were higher in the routine medical treatment than the early PCI group (6.3% vs. 2.5%). The prediction results of the MC algorithms accounted for only one interaction term that was statistically significant: age ≥65 years. After propensity-matched analysis as well as IPTW, early PCI was associated with reduced 30-day all-cause mortality in the older age (OR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.14 to 0.92 and 0.43; 95% CI: 0.21 to 0.86, respectively), whereas younger age had no association with the primary endpoint. Similar results were also obtained for the secondary endpoint. Conclusions Among patients with diabetes hospitalized for NSTE-ACS, an early, within 24 hours, PCI strategy is associated with reduced odds of 30-day mortality only for patients aged 65 years or over. MC algorithms provide accurate identification of treatment effect modifiers.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Kinoshita ◽  
H Yuzawa ◽  
R Wada ◽  
S Yao ◽  
K Yano ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Recent guidelines have stated that reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is the gold standard marker for identifying patients at risk for cardiac mortality. Although reduced LVEF identifies patients at an increased risk of cardiac arrest, sudden cardiac deaths (SCDs) occur considerably more often in patients with relatively preserved LVEF. Current guidelines on SCDs risk stratification do not adequately cover this general population pool. Heart rate variability (HRV) and heart rate turbulence (HRT) are non-invasive electrocardiography (ECG)-based techniques capable of providing relevant information on the cardiac autonomic nervous modulation. Although a large body of evidence about autonomic nervous modulation markers has been reported, the usefulness of HRV and HRT parameters for risk stratification in such patients with relatively preserved LVEF has not yet been elucidated. Purpose This study aimed to evaluate HRV and HRT parameters for predicting cardiac mortality in patients with structural heart disease (SHD), including ischemic heart disease, dilated cardiomyopathy and valvular heart disease, who have mid-range left ventricular dysfunction (LVD). Methods We prospectively enrolled 229 patients (187 men, age 63 ± 13 years) with SHD who have mid-range LVD (LVEF &gt; 40%). HRV and HRT parameters based on 24-hour ambulatory ECG recordings (Fukuda Denshi Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan) were evaluated as follows; SDNN, triangular index, high and low frequency HRV, turbulence onset and slope. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to assess the association between these cardiac autonomic nervous modulation and mortality. Results During a mean follow-up of 21 ± 11 months, all-cause mortality was seen in 11 (4.8%) patients. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that reduced SDNN (&lt;50ms), reduced triangular index (&lt;20ms) and HRT category 2 were significantly associated with the primary endpoint (P &lt; 0.05). When HRT category 2 combined with reduced SDNN, Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that this combination more strongly associates with the primary endpoint (hazard ratio =7.91, 95%CI, 1.82-34.2; P = 0.006). Conclusion Dual cardiac autonomic nervous modulation assessment which combined HRT and HRV could be a superior technique to predict mortality in patients with relatively preserved LVEF.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
B.M.L Rocha ◽  
G.J Lopes Da Cunha ◽  
P.M.D Lopes ◽  
P.N Freitas ◽  
F Gama ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is recommended in the evaluation of selected patients with Heart Failure (HF). Notwithstanding, its prognostic significance has mainly been ascertained in those with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) &lt;40% (i.e., HFrEF). The main goal of our study was to assess the role of CPET in risk stratification of HF with mid-range (40–49%) LVEF (i.e., HFmrEF) compared to HFrEF. Methods We conducted a single-center retrospective study of consecutive patients with HF and LVEF &lt;50% who underwent CPET from 2003–2018. The primary composite endpoint of death, heart transplant or HF hospitalization was assessed. Results Overall, 404 HF patients (mean age 57±11 years, 78.2% male, 55.4% ischemic HF) were included, of whom 321 (79.5%) had HFrEF and 83 (20.5%) HFmrEF. Compared to the former, those with HFmrEF had a significantly higher mean peak oxygen uptake (pVO2) (20.2±6.1 vs 16.1±5.0 mL/kg/min; p&lt;0.001), lower median minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production (VE/VCO2) [35.0 (IQR: 29.1–41.2) vs 39.0 (IQR: 32.0–47.0); p=0.002) and fewer patients with exercise oscillatory ventilation (EOV) (22.0 vs 46.3%; p&lt;0.001). Over a median follow-up of 28.7 (IQR: 13.0–92.3) months, 117 (28.9%) patients died, 53 (13.1%) underwent heart transplantation, and 134 (33.2%) had at least one HF hospitalization. In both HFmrEF and HFrEF, pVO2 &lt;12 mL/kg/min, VE/VCO2 &gt;35 and EOV identified patients at higher risk for events (all p&lt;0.05). In Cox regression multivariate analysis, pVO2 was predictive of the primary endpoint in both HFmrEF and HFrEF (HR per +1 mL/kg/min: 0.81; CI: 0.72–0.92; p=0.001; and HR per +1 mL/kg/min: 0.92; CI: 0.87–0.97; p=0.004), as was EOV (HR: 4.79; CI: 1.41–16.39; p=0.012; and HR: 2.15; CI: 1.51–3.07; p&lt;0.001). VE/VCO2, on the other hand, was predictive of events in HFrEF but not in HFmrEF (HR per unit: 1.03; CI: 1.02–1.05; p&lt;0.001; and HR per unit: 0.99; CI: 0.95–1.03; p=0.512, respectively). ROC curve analysis demonstrated that a pVO2 &gt;16.7 and &gt;15.8 mL/kg/min more accurately identified patients at lower risk for the primary endpoint (NPV: 91.2 and 60.5% for HFmrEF and HFrEF, respectively; both p&lt;0.001). Conclusions CPET is a useful tool in HFmrEF. Both pVO2 and EOV independently predicted the primary endpoint in HFmrEF and HFrEF, contrasting with VE/VCO2, which remained predictive only in latter group. Our findings strengthen the prognostic role of CPET in HF with either reduced or mid-range LVEF. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 593-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Marie K Jepsen ◽  
Anne Langsted ◽  
Anette Varbo ◽  
Lia E Bang ◽  
Pia R Kamstrup ◽  
...  

Abstract BACKGROUND Increased concentrations of remnant cholesterol are causally associated with increased risk of ischemic heart disease. We tested the hypothesis that increased remnant cholesterol is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease. METHODS We included 5414 Danish patients diagnosed with ischemic heart disease. Patients on statins were not excluded. Calculated remnant cholesterol was nonfasting total cholesterol minus LDL and HDL cholesterol. During 35836 person-years of follow-up, 1319 patients died. RESULTS We examined both calculated and directly measured remnant cholesterol; importantly, however, measured remnant cholesterol made up only 9% of calculated remnant cholesterol at nonfasting triglyceride concentrations &lt;1 mmol/L (89 mg/dL) and only 43% at triglycerides &gt;5 mmol/L (443 mg/dL). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality compared with patients with calculated remnant cholesterol concentrations in the 0 to 60th percentiles were 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1–1.4) for patients in the 61st to 80th percentiles, 1.3 (1.1–1.5) for the 81st to 90th percentiles, 1.5 (1.1–1.8) for the 91st to 95th percentiles, and 1.6 (1.2–2.0) for patients in the 96th to 100th percentiles (trend, P &lt; 0.001). Corresponding values for measured remnant cholesterol were 1.0 (0.8–1.1), 1.2 (1.0–1.4), 1.1 (0.9–1.5), and 1.3 (1.1–1.7) (trend, P = 0.006), and for measured LDL cholesterol 1.0 (0.9–1.1), 1.0 (0.8–1.2), 1.0 (0.8–1.3), and 1.1 (0.8–1.4) (trend, P = 0.88). Cumulative survival was reduced in patients with calculated remnant cholesterol ≥1 mmol/L (39 mg/dL) vs &lt;1 mmol/L [log-rank, P = 9 × 10−6; hazard ratio 1.3 (1.2–1.5)], but not in patients with measured LDL cholesterol ≥3 mmol/L (116 mg/dL) vs &lt;3 mmol/L [P = 0.76; hazard ratio 1.0 (0.9–1.1)]. CONCLUSIONS Increased concentrations of both calculated and measured remnant cholesterol were associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease, which was not the case for increased concentrations of measured LDL cholesterol. This suggests that increased concentrations of remnant cholesterol explain part of the residual risk of all-cause mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease.


Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuichi Nakamura ◽  
Akiomi Yoshihisa ◽  
Hiroyuki Kunii ◽  
Mai Takiguchi ◽  
Takeshi Shimizu ◽  
...  

Background: A history of peripheral artery disease (PAD) is an independent predictor of cardiac mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease. However, it still remains unclear whether PAD predicts worsening heart failure (HF), cardiac and all-cause mortality in HF patients. Methods and Results: Consecutive 388 HF patients admitted to our hospital for the treatment of decompensated HF were divided into 2 groups based on the presence of PAD: HF with PAD (PAD group, n = 103) and HF without PAD (non-PAD group, n = 285). We compared echocardiographic and laboratory findings, and followed the event of worsening HF, cardiac death, non-cardiac death, and all-cause mortality between the two groups. The PAD group, as compared to non-PAD group, had 1) higher age (69.2 vs. 64.5 years old, P=0.001), 2) higher incidence of New York Heart Association functional class III or IV (56.3% vs. 37.2%, P = 0.001), 3) lower levels of hemoglobin (12.3 vs. 12.9 g/dl, P = 0.020), 4) higher levels of B-type natriuretic peptide (591.0 vs. 256.9 pg/ml, P = 0.017), 5) lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) (46.2 vs. 58.9 ml/min/1.73m 2 , P < 0.001), and 6) lower left ventricular ejection fraction (42.0 vs. 48.7%, P < 0.001). In the follow-up period (mean 765.6 days), Kaplan-Meier analyses (Figure) showed that the event-free survival from worsening HF, cardiac death, non-cardiac death and all-cause death was significantly higher in non-PAD group than in PAD group (P = 0.017, P < 0.001, P = 0.001 and P = 0.005, respectively, by a log-rank test). In the Cox proportional hazard analyses after adjusting for age, gender, ejection fraction, estimated GFR, and the presence of ischemic heart disease, PAD was an independent predictor of cardiac death (hazard ratio (HR) 2.09, P = 0.019) and all-cause mortality (HR 2.16, P = 0.002) in HF patients. Conclusions: PAD is an independent predictor of cardiac mortality and all-cause mortality in HF patients.


Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepak L Bhatt ◽  
Robert Giugliano ◽  
Philippe G Steg ◽  
Michael Miller ◽  
Eliot A Brinton ◽  
...  

Introduction: REDUCE-IT was an event-driven trial that randomized 8,179 statin-treated patients with controlled LDL-C and moderately elevated triglycerides to icosapent ethyl (IPE) 4g daily or placebo, with a median of 4.9 years of follow-up. There was a significant reduction in the prespecified adjudicated rates of the primary endpoint (cardiovascular [CV] death, non-fatal myocardial infarction [MI], non-fatal stroke, coronary revascularization, and unstable angina requiring hospitalization) and of the key secondary endpoint (CV death, MI, stroke), as well as in all the primary endpoint components. We sought to determine the effect of IPE on investigator-reported events. Methods: The Clinical Endpoint Committee (CEC) blindly adjudicated investigator-reported events according to a prespecified charter. Medical records and reports were also reviewed to assess for clinical events not reported by investigators. An endpoint management team compiled and electronically provided event packets to the CEC via an adjudication database. The CEC Chair provided final adjudication if the two primary adjudicators could not reach consensus. Results: IPE significantly reduced the rate of the primary endpoint (hazard ratio 0.74, p=0.0000000002) and the key secondary endpoint (hazard ratio 0.75, p=0.000007) as reported by the site investigators, with consistent benefits in each component of the primary endpoint (Table). There was a high degree of concordance between investigator-reported and adjudicated endpoints. Conclusions: Icosapent ethyl significantly reduced multiple types of ischemic events, both by independent, blinded adjudication as well as by investigator-reported assessment. These results underscore the robustness of the benefits of icosapent ethyl seen in REDUCE-IT.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S M Pio ◽  
M R Amanullah ◽  
K Y Sin ◽  
N Ajmone Marsan ◽  
Z P Ding ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The frequency of discordant mean valve gradient (MG) and aortic valve area (AVA) in patients with moderate aortic stenosis (AS) has not been investigated. Objectives Determine the occurrence of discordant gradient in patients with moderate AS (defined by MG <20 mmHg), and how these patients compare with concordant gradient moderate AS (MG >20 mmHg) in terms of patients' characteristics and the impact on long term prognosis. Methods Based on the echocardiographic findings at the time of diagnosis of moderate AS (valve area >1.0 and ≤1.5 cm2), they were re-classified into discordant or concordant gradients, MG <20 mmHg or >20 mmHg, respectively. The clinical endpoint was all-cause mortality. Results Of 522 patients with moderate AS, 95 (18.2%) had discordant gradient moderate AS (MG <20 mmHg). Patients with discordant mean gradient were older, had higher prevalence of previous myocardial infarct, larger left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic volume index, lower LV ejection fraction (EF), stroke volume index and higher LV filling pressure. Compared to patients with concordant gradients, these patients had higher mortality rates (57.9% vs 46.6%, p=0.05) and lower aortic valve replacement rates (33.7% vs 54.9%, p<0.001) during a median follow-up of 6.2 [IQR 3.2–9.0] years. The results of Cox regression analysis are shown on the table. Cox proportional hazard analysis All-cause mortality Univariate analysis Multivariate analysis Hazard ratio (95% CI) P value Hazard ratio (95% CI) P value Age (per 1 year increase) 1.05 (1.03–1.06) <0.001 1.04 (1.02–1.06) <0.001 Diabetes (yes/no) 1.34 (1.03–1.74) 0.031 1.33 (0.97–1.82) 0.072 Previous myocardial infarction (yes/no) 1.73 (1.29–2.34) <0.001 1.01 (0.70–1.46) 0.980 eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73m2 (yes/no) 2.15 (1.68–2.76) <0.001 1.71 (1.25–2.33) 0.001 Left ventricular hypertrophy (yes/no) 1.74 (1.31–2.30) <0.001 1.50 (1.07–2.09) 0.018 Indexed LA volume (per 1 mL/m2 increase) 1.005 (1.001–1.009) 0.008 1.006 (1.001–1.012) 0.040 Tricuspid regurgitation >moderate (yes/no) 2.02 (1.29–3.16) 0.002 1.36 (0.73–2.54) 0.337 Discordant moderate AS (yes/no) 1.81 (1.34–2.45) <0.001 1.42 (1.01–2.01) 0.049 AS, aortic stenosis; CI, confidence interval; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; HR, hazard ratio; LA, Left atrial. Conclusion Discrepant aortic mean gradient in moderate AS is not uncommon and occurs more often in older patients, with higher LV filling pressure and lower EF and stroke volume index. The lower gradient values lead to underestimation of AS severity, and is associated with greater cardiac extra-valvular damage and higher mortality.


2020 ◽  
pp. 204748732092198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gali Cohen ◽  
David M Steinberg ◽  
Lital Keinan-Boker ◽  
Yuval ◽  
Ilan Levy ◽  
...  

Background Individuals with coronary heart disease are considered susceptible to traffic-related air pollution exposure. Yet, cohort-based evidence on whether preexisting coronary heart disease modifies the association of traffic-related air pollution with health outcomes is lacking. Aim Using data of four Israeli cohorts, we compared associations of traffic-related air pollution with mortality and cancer between coronary heart disease patients and matched controls from the general population. Methods Subjects hospitalized with acute coronary syndrome from two patient cohorts (inception years: 1992–1993 and 2006–2014) were age- and sex-matched to coronary heart disease-free participants of two cycles of the Israeli National Health and Nutrition Surveys (inception years: 1999–2001 and 2005–2006). Ambient concentrations of nitrogen oxides at the residential place served as a proxy for traffic-related air pollution exposure across all cohorts, based on a high-resolution national land use regression model (50 m). Data on all-cause mortality (last update: 2018) and cancer incidence (last update: 2016) were retrieved from national registries. Cox-derived stratum-specific hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated, adjusted for harmonized covariates across cohorts, including age, sex, ethnicity, neighborhood socioeconomic status, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, prior stroke and prior malignancy (the latter only in the mortality analysis). Effect-modification was examined by testing nitrogen oxides-by-coronary heart disease interaction term in the entire matched cohort. Results The cohort (mean (standard deviation) age 61.5 (14) years; 44% women) included 2393 matched pairs, among them 2040 were cancer-free at baseline. During a median (25th–75th percentiles) follow-up of 13 (10–19) and 11 (7–17) years, 1458 deaths and 536 new cancer cases were identified, respectively. In multivariable-adjusted models, a 10-parts per billion nitrogen oxides increment was positively associated with all-cause mortality among coronary heart disease patients (hazard ratio = 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.05–1.22), but not among controls (hazard ratio = 1.00, 0.93–1.08) ( pinteraction = 0.003). A similar pattern was seen for all-cancer incidence (hazard ratioCHD = 1.19 (1.03–1.37), hazard ratioCHD-Free = 0.93 (0.84–1.04) ( pinteraction = 0.01)). Associations were robust to multiple sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Coronary heart disease patients might be at increased risk for traffic-related air pollution-associated mortality and cancer, irrespective of their age and sex. Patients and clinicians should be more aware of the adverse health effects on coronary heart disease patients of chronic exposure to vehicle emissions.


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