scholarly journals Simulating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions limiting transmission in COVID-19 epidemics using a membrane computing model

microLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Campos ◽  
J M Sempere ◽  
J C Galán ◽  
A Moya ◽  
C Llorens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Membrane Computing ◽  
Immunological Response ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Work Activities ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Single Intervention ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Parameters ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Computing Models

ABSTRACT Epidemics caused by microbial organisms are part of the natural phenomena of increasing biological complexity. The heterogeneity and constant variability of hosts, in terms of age, immunological status, family structure, lifestyle, work activities, social and leisure habits, daily division of time, and other demographic characteristics make it extremely difficult to predict the evolution of epidemics. Such prediction is, however, critical for implementing intervention measures in due time and with appropriate intensity. General conclusions should be precluded, given that local parameters dominate the flow of local epidemics. Membrane computing models allows us to reproduce the objects (viruses, hosts) and their interactions (stochastic but also with defined probabilities) with an unprecedented level of detail. Our LOIMOS model helps reproduce the demographics and social aspects of a hypothetical town of 10,320 inhabitants in an average European country where COVID-19 is imported from the outside. The above-mentioned characteristics of hosts and their lifestyle are minutely considered. For the data in the Hospital and the ICU we took advantage of the observations at the Nursery Intensive Care Unit of the Consortium University General Hospital, Valencia, Spain (included as author). The dynamics of the epidemics are reproduced and include the effects on viral transmission of innate and acquired immunity at various ages. The model predicts the consequences of delaying the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (between 15 and 45 days after the first reported cases) and the effect of those interventions on infection and mortality rates (reducing transmission by 20%, 50%, and 80%) in immunological response groups. The lockdown for the elderly population as a single intervention appears to be effective. This modelling exercise exemplifies the application of membrane computing for designing appropriate multilateral interventions in epidemic situations.

scholarly journals Simulating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions limiting transmission in COVID-19 epidemics using a membrane computing model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Baquero ◽  
Marcelino Campos ◽  
Jose-Maria Sempere ◽  
Juan-Carlos Galan ◽  
Andres Moya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Membrane Computing ◽  
Immunological Response ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Work Activities ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Single Intervention ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Parameters ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Computing Models

Epidemics caused by microbial organisms are part of the natural phenomena of increasing biological complexity. The heterogeneity and constant variability of hosts, in terms of age, immunological status, family structure, lifestyle, work activities, social and leisure habits, daily division of time, and other demographic characteristics make it extremely difficult to predict the evolution of epidemics. Such prediction is, however, critical for implementing intervention measures in due time and with appropriate intensity. General conclusions should be precluded, given that local parameters dominate the flow of local epidemics. Membrane computing models allows us to reproduce the objects (viruses, hosts) and their interactions (stochastic but also with defined probabilities) with an unprecedented level of detail. Our LOIMOS model helps reproduce the demographics and social aspects of a hypothetical town of 10,320 inhabitants in an average European country where COVID-19 is imported from the outside. The above-mentioned characteristics of hosts and their lifestyle are minutely considered. The dynamics of the epidemics are reproduced and include the effects on viral transmission of innate and acquired immunity at various ages. The model predicts the consequences of delaying the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (between 15 and 45 days after the first reported cases) and the effect of those interventions on infection and mortality rates (reducing transmission by 20%, 50%, and 80%) in immunological response groups. The lockdown for the elderly population as a single intervention appears to be effective. This modelling exercise exemplifies the application of membrane computing for designing appropriate interventions in epidemic situations.

scholarly journals Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon A. Rella ◽  
Yuliya A. Kulikova ◽  
Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis ◽  
Fyodor A. Kondrashov
Keyword(s):  
Resistant Strain ◽  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Current Vaccine ◽  
Transmission Reduction ◽  
Resistant Strains ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractVaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.

scholarly journals COVID-19 prediction in South Africa: Understanding the unascertained cases -- the hidden part of the epidemiological iceberg

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuelin Gu ◽  
Bhramar Mukherjee ◽  
Sonali Das ◽  
Jyotishka Datta
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background: Understanding the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains a critical epidemiological problem in South Africa that reported the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths from the African continent. Methods: In this study, we applied two existing epidemiological models, an extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed model (eSIR) and SAPHIRE, to fit the daily ascertained infected (and removed) cases from March 15 to July 31 in South Africa. To combine the desirable features from the two models, we further extended the eSIR model to an eSEIRD model. Results: Using the eSEIRD model, the COVID-19 transmission dynamics in South Africa was characterized by the estimated basic reproduction number (R0) at 2.10 (95%CI: [2.09,2.10]). The decrease of effective reproduction number with time implied the effectiveness of interventions. The low estimated ascertained rate was found to be 2.17% (95%CI: [2.15%, 2.19%]) in the eSEIRD model. The overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) was estimated as 0.04% (95%CI: [0.02%, 0.06%]) while the reported case fatality ratio was 4.40% (95% CI: [<0.01%, 11.81%]). As of December 31, 2020, the cumulative number of ascertained cases and total infected would reach roughly 801 thousand and 36.9 million according to the long-term forecasting. Conclusions: The dynamics based on our models suggested a decline of COVID-19 infection and that the severity of the epidemic might be largely mitigated through strict interventions. Besides providing insights on the COVID-19 dynamics in South Africa, we develop powerful forecasting tools that allow incorporating ascertained rate and IFR estimation and inquiring into the effect of intervention measures on COVID-19 spread.

Forms of physical activity of the elderly

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 221-228
Author(s):  
Piotr Czarnecki ◽  
◽  
Justyna Podgórska-Bednarz ◽  
Lidia Perenc ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Elderly People ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Good Health ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Polish Society ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Key Phrases ◽  
The Impact

Introduction. Physical activity is known to be an important factor influencing health throughout human life. This issue has become crucial for public health due to the aging of the population in both developed and developing countries. Aim. is to present a literature review on the forms of physical activity undertaken by the elderly, as well as on issues related to physical activity and the population aging. Material and methods. The study was prepared on the basis of a review of Polish and foreign literature. The following databases and data sources were used: EBSCO, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar. An additional source of data were the websites of the Central Statistical Office. Strictly defined key phrases were used during the collection of literature. The work has been divided into thematic subsections on the aging of the society, the impact of physical activity on health and the main topic, i.e. forms of physical activity selected by the elderly. Analysis of the literature. The number of elderly people in Polish society has increased by almost 3.7 million over three decades. Therefore, an important topic is prophylaxis aimed at increasing the number of days in good health, largely covering the broadly understood activation of the elderly. The available data indicate that only 12% of elderly people undertake physical activity once a week. The most common form of spending free time actively is walking (as many as 73% of people in this population declare this form of physical activity in one of the presented studies). Conclusion. Organized forms of physical activity are undertaken much less frequently by the analyzed age group mainly due to financial limitations and limited availability of sports infrastructure.

A REVIEW ON THE BENEFITS OF HORTICULTURAL THERAPY FOR RETIREMENT COMMUNITY IN MALAYSIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Amirul Amin Ismail ◽  
Ismail Samsuddin ◽  
Azman Zainonabidin ◽  
Harlina Mohd Ali
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Retirement Community ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Horticultural Therapy ◽  
Seamless Integration ◽  
Ageing Society ◽  
After Effects ◽  
Malaysian Population ◽  
The Impact

By the year 2030, Malaysian population will experience the after effects of the rapid growth of ageing society. This paper investigates the impact of seamless integration of horticultural activity in the new residential typology of retirement community. It is believed that horticultural therapy is not only beneficial for physical and psychological but also promotes socialisation opportunities among the elderly. Comparative analysis method on selected precedent studies has been carried out and analysed in accordance with Malaysian context. Initial findings indicate that a retirement community with horticultural activity gives therapy for healthier well-being. This therapeutic activity can be apositive change in elderly lifestyle and essential towards the establishment of retirement community in Malaysia. 

The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Children‘s Behaviors and Language

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 796-806
Author(s):  
Sana M Kamal ◽  
Ali Al-Samydai ◽  
Rudaina Othman Yousif ◽  
Talal Aburjai
Keyword(s):  
Social Relations ◽  
Child Psychology ◽  
Simple Random Sample ◽  
Community Pharmacies ◽  
The World ◽  
Female Children ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

COVID-19 pandemic has spread across the world, which considered a relative of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), with possibility of transmission from animals to human and effect each of health and economic. Several preventative strategies and non-pharmaceutical interventions have been used to slow down the spread of COVID-19. The questionnaire contained 36 questions regarding the impact of COVID-19 quarantine on children`s behaviors and language have been distributed online (Google form). Data collected after asking parents about their children behavior during quarantine, among the survey completers (n=469), 42.3% were female children, and 57.7 were male children. Results showed that quarantine has an impact on children`s behaviors and language, where stress and isolationism has a higher effect, while social relations had no impact. The majority of the respondents (75.0%) had confidence that community pharmacies can play an important role in helping families in protection their children`s behaviors and language as they made the highest contact with pharmacists during quarantine. One of the main recommendations that could be applied to help parents protection and improvement their children`s behaviors and language in quarantine condition base on simple random sample opinion is increasing the role of community pharmacies inpatient counseling and especially towards children after giving courses to pharmacists in child psychology and behavior. This could be helpful to family to protect their children, from any changing in them behaviors and language in such conditions in the future if the world reface such the same problem.

The effect of brain vitalization activity on dementia incidence in elderly at Budi Luhur Nursing Home of Yogyakarta, Kasongan, Bantul

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 43-50
Author(s):  
Firstyono Miftahul Aziz ◽  
Suratini Suratini
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Home ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Control Group ◽  
P Value ◽  
Sampling System ◽  
Randomized Sampling ◽  
Care For The Elderly ◽  
Dementia Incidence ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Impact

For some people, dementia is considered as a disease that is common in elderly, regardless the impact of dementia. Taking care for the elderly with dementia brings stress for the family. It can cause and increase the family burden. Brain vitalization gymnastics is one of the methods to improve memory. The study aims to investigate the effect of brain vitalization activity on dementia incidence in elderly at Budi Luhur Nursing Home of Yogyakarta. The study used Quasi Experimental with Pretest-Posttest control group and randomized sampling system. The samples were taken randomly as many as 26 respondents and were divided into two groups namely 13 respondents of experimental group and 13 respondents of control group. The statistical test used Wilcoxon Match Pairs Test. The result showed that Wilcoxon Match pairs test obtained p value 0,003, which is smaller than 0,005. There is an effect of brain vitalization activity on dementia incidence in elderly at Budi Luhur Nursing Home of Yogyakarta

scholarly journals Does Social Support Affect the Health of the Elderly in Rural China? A Meta-Analysis Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 3471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natuya Zhuori ◽  
Yu Cai ◽  
Yan Yan ◽  
Yu Cui ◽  
Minjuan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Social Support ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Rural China ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Meta Regression ◽  
The Impact

As the trend of aging in rural China has intensified, research on the factors affecting the health of the elderly in rural areas has become a hot issue. However, the conclusions of existing studies are inconsistent and even contradictory, making it difficult to form constructive policies with practical value. To explore the reasons for the inconsistent conclusions drawn by relevant research, in this paper we constructed a meta-regression database based on 65 pieces of relevant literature published in the past 25 years. For more valid samples to reduce publication bias, we also set the statistical significance of social support to the health of the elderly in rural areas as a dependent variable. Finally, combined with multi-dimensional social support and its implications for the health of the elderly, meta-regression analysis was carried out on the results of 171 empirical studies. The results show that (1) subjective support rather than objective support can have a significant impact on the health of the elderly in rural areas, and there is no significant difference between other dimensions of social support and objective support; (2) the health status of the elderly in rural areas in samples involving western regions is more sensitive to social support than that in samples not involving the western regions; (3) among the elderly in rural areas, social support for the older male elderly is more likely to improve their health than that for the younger female elderly; and (4) besides this, both data sources and econometric models greatly affect the heterogeneity of the effect of social support on the health of the elderly in rural areas, but neither the published year nor the journal is significant. Finally, relevant policies and follow-up studies on the impact of social support on the health of the elderly in rural areas are discussed.

scholarly journals The Geriatric Medication Game to Raise Community Pharmacists’ Awareness on Older Adults’ Day-to-Day Challenges

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Aisha F. Badr
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
Community Pharmacists ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Learning Activity ◽  
Simulation Games ◽  
Self Reflection ◽  
Satisfaction Rate ◽  
The Impact

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> In Saudi Arabia; it is estimated that the elderly (aged 60 and above) would reach up to (22.9%) by 2050, compared to (5.6%) in 2017. Simulation games have proven to be a useful and effective method of education in pharmacy schools, as it actively involves participants in the learning process. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of the modified geriatric medication game on community pharmacists’ awareness and attitudes toward older adults with common disabilities. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> A modified geriatric medication game was adopted to stimulate both physical and sensory disabilities in older adults. A total of 9 community pharmacists were gathered in 1 room and were asked to play 2 scenarios each. Self-reflection was assessed and ground theories were analyzed. <b><i>Results:</i></b> All pharmacists felt frustration and anger playing the game (100%), followed by becoming more aware of the extra time and guidance needed with older adults and realized how disabling chronic diseases could be, and felt they needed to improve common perceived attitude towards the elderly (88.89%). Pharmacists also felt empathy, sympathy, and compassion towards this population, needed improvement of common perceived attitude towards older adults, and felt the need to double check with older adults if they have any disabilities before counseling (77.78%). Finally, over half pharmacists (55.5%) wished they had more training on geriatrics during pharmacy school and the need for further review of Beer’s criteria. All pharmacists were satisfied with the game and recommended it to all community pharmacists. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Simulation games are a great way to strengthen awareness and change practice accordingly. Pharmacists improved their awareness and attitude towards the elderly and reported a positive perceived value of this learning activity; with a 100% satisfaction rate. Adding a geriatric course with simulation component is recommended for better geriatric care.

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