Volatility Decay and Diversification Role of Timberland as the Investment Horizon Lengthens

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiyi Zhang ◽  
Bin Mei
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Private Equity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
Asset Portfolio ◽  
Public Equity

Abstract Under the mean-variance efficiency framework, we investigate the role of timberland asset in a mixed-asset portfolio in the United States. Starting from a single period (quarterly) view, we first reveal the crucial role of serial correlation in defining an asset’s financial performance. Accordingly, we modify return, volatility, and correlation for multiyear horizons to account for the nature of long-term investments. Our results show that, although timberland is persistent in all portfolios, private-equity timberland can be substituted by other liquid assets, including public-equity timberland, as the lengthening holding period substantially reduces their volatilities. We conclude that private-equity timberland is a risk diversifier regardless of the length of the investment horizon, whereas public-equity timberland becomes a suitable diversifier only for long-term investors with high risk tolerance. Study Implications: Serial correlation influences an asset’s return, risk, and correlation with other assets as the investment horizon lengthens. Volatilities of large-cap stocks and public timber real estate investment trusts decay significantly when the holding period is longer than three years. Therefore, these liquid assets become more efficient in the long run. Regardless of the length of the investment horizon, private-equity timberland acts as a risk diversifier in a mixed-asset portfolio, whereas public-equity timberland is a suitable diversifier only for high risk, long-term investors.

Do lump-sum investing strategies really outperform dollar-cost averaging strategies?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Lu ◽  
Vu Tran Hoang ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Performance Measure ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
Lump Sum

Purpose The literature has demonstrated that lump-sum (LS) outperforms dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in uptrend markets while DCA outperforms LS only when the asset price is mean-reverted or downtrend. To bridge the gap in the literature, this study aims to use both Sharpe ratio (SR) and economic performance measure (EPM) to compare the performance of DCA and LS under both accumulative and disaccumulative approaches when the asset price is simulated to be uptrend. Design/methodology/approach This study uses both disaccumulative and accumulative approaches to compare DCA with LS and uses both SR and EPM to evaluate their performance when the asset price is simulated to be uptrend. Instead of using the annualized returns that are commonly used by other DCA studies, we compute the holding-period returns in the comparison in this paper. Findings The simulation shows that no matter which approach is used, DCA outperforms LS in nearly all the cases in the less uptrend markets while DCA still performs better than LS in many cases of the uptrend markets, especially when the market is more volatile and investment horizon is long, regardless which approach the authors used. The authors also find more evidence supporting DCA over LS by using EPM, which is more suitable in the analysis because the returns generated by DCA are positive skewed and flat-tailed that are ignored when SR is used. Research limitations/implications The authors conclude that DCA is a better trading strategy than LS for investment even in the uptrend market, especially on high risky assets. Practical implications Investors could consider choosing DCA instead of LS as their trading strategy, especially when they prefer long term investment and investing in high-risk assets. Social implications Fund managers could consider recommending DCA to their customers, especially when they prefer long term investment and investing in high-risk assets. Originality/value This is the own study and, as far as the authors know, this is the first study in the literature uses both SR and EPM to compare the performance of DCA and LS under both accumulative and disaccumulative approaches when the asset price is simulated to be uptrend.

The Artist as Environmentalist: Ansel Adams, Policy Entrepreneurship, and the Growth of Environmentalism

Public Voices ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
John C. Morris
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Entrepreneur ◽  
Policy Entrepreneurship ◽  
Ansel Adams

The role of the policy entrepreneur in the policy process forms an integral part of our understanding of the formulation and implementation of policy in the United States. For all its theoretical importance, however, little work has been done to develop or test the propositions of entrepreneurship offered by Kingdon (1984). By examining the life of Ansel Adams (1902-1984), this paper explores more fully the concept of policy entrepreneurship and seeks to develop a more robust concept that accounts for the long-term, diffuse series of activities that precede Kingdon’s “stream coupling” in the policy process. The analysis suggests that such an approach offers some promise for capturing a broader spectrum of policy activity.

Reshaping the Economic Structure in Argentina: The Role of External Debt during the Macri Administration (2015–2019)

2021 ◽  
pp. 048661342097642
Author(s):  
Juan E. Santarcángelo ◽  
Juan Manuel Padín
Keyword(s):  
External Debt ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
The United States ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Financial Capital ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Long Term Effects

Argentina’s right-wing shift in the 2015 presidential election concluded twelve years of center-left rule. The elected president, Mauricio Macri, claimed that the economy would experience normalization of existing imbalances and recover its strength in a “new political era.” However, the new administration quickly restored the dominance of neoliberal economic policies through a comprehensive set of initiatives, which centrally included the return to international financial debt and equity markets and submission to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) rules. This article analyzes Argentina’s external-debt-growth process and discusses its objectives and long-term effects. This paper posits that the indebtedness process carried out by the Macri administration—and its modality—not only increased the relevance of financial capital in the Argentine economy but also structurally conditioned any future nonorthodox alternative path of development. This outcome cannot be understood without taking into account the deliberate role of the United States, the IMF, and the top companies that operate in Argentina, as well as the complicity of many political sectors. JEL Classification: H63, F34, F63

Financial impact of high land prices on the viability of winery startup projects

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Santos ◽  
Vincent Richman ◽  
Aidong Hu
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Land Prices ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose Does it make economic sense to invest in winery startups with high land prices? This paper aims to apply a capital budgeting analysis for a startup project to investigate the role of land prices in the decision-making of a wine entrepreneur. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a capital budgeting analysis to evaluate the value of a winery project using the six investment criteria: net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), modified IRR, profitability index, payback period (PB) and discounted PB. Findings This study finds that high land prices are economically justifiable (NPV is greater or equal to zero) when the weighted average capital cost is sufficiently low for investors who are able to diversify risks and with access to a cheap source of funds. Additionally, this study demonstrates that wine entrepreneurs need a long-term investment horizon because the recovery of the initial investment in winery startup projects takes many years. Research limitations/implications The startup winery projects are heavily influenced by wine pricing, production and cost assumptions. As a result, different assumptions made at other wine regions may result in slightly different outcomes for the acceptability of the wine startup projects. Practical implications High land prices are economically justified for investors and entrepreneurs with the ability to diversify risk and access to cheap financial resources. As such, land prices can be a critical obstacle for individual entrepreneurs who experience a lack of capital. Social implications In the famous wine regions of the world, high land prices may result in more wineries being owned by the capital rich wine conglomerates. Originality/value This paper provides estimations of land prices based on financial methods to discuss the justification of observed prices and the implications regarding the ability of investors and entrepreneurs to access capital.

Planning or Improvisation

2020 ◽  
pp. 116-120
Author(s):  
Alasdair Roberts
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Governance Strategies ◽  
The Face ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge

This chapter assesses the role of planning in the design of governance strategies. Enthusiasm for large-scale planning—also known as overall, comprehensive, long-term, economic, or social planning—boomed and collapsed in twentieth century. At the start of that century, progressive reformers seized on planning as the remedy for the United States' social and economic woes. By the end of the twentieth century, enthusiasm for large-scale planning had collapsed. Plans could be made, but they were unlikely to be obeyed, and even if they were obeyed, they were unlikely to work as predicted. The chapter then explains that leaders should make plans while being realistic about the limits of planning. It is necessary to exercise foresight, set priorities, and design policies that seem likely to accomplish those priorities. Simply by doing this, leaders encourage coordination among individuals and businesses, through conversation about goals and tactics. Neither is imperfect knowledge a total barrier to planning. There is no “law” of unintended consequences: it is not inevitable that government actions will produce entirely unexpected results. The more appropriate stance is modesty about what is known and what can be achieved. Plans that launch big schemes on brittle assumptions are more likely to fail. Plans that proceed more tentatively, that allow room for testing, learning, and adjustment, are less likely to collapse in the face of unexpected results.

Venous Thromboembolic Diseases

2014 ◽  
pp. 346-355
Author(s):  
Gregory Piazza ◽  
Samuel Z. Goldhaber
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Laboratory Testing ◽  
Clinical Findings ◽  
Venous Thromboembolic ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Practical Recommendations

This chapter reviews the pathophysiology of VTE, including its risk factors and long-term consequences. Diagnostic algorithms that integrate clinical findings, laboratory testing, and imaging are described. The role of risk stratification for identification of high-risk PE patients is highlighted. Options for the management of VTE are reviewed. Finally, practical recommendations for the prevention of VTE are provided.

Iran: Adversaries and Nuclear Reversal

2020 ◽  
pp. 152-179
Author(s):  
Rupal N. Mehta
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
International Community ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
Case Study Analysis ◽  
Comprehensive Plan

This chapter presents an in-depth case study analysis of the Iranian nuclear program from its inception to the country’s ultimate decision to renounce its nuclear ambitions in 2015. The chapter begins by examining the trajectory of the Iranian nuclear program and some of the initial attempts by the international community to persuade Iran to end it. Using archival and interview-based data, this analysis demonstrates the powerful role of inducements offered by the United States and other members of the international community, in conjunction with the election of President Rouhani, that provided a window of opportunity that ultimately led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The chapter concludes with an update about the long-term viability of the Iran deal.

Radiotherapy after Prostatectomy

2002 ◽  
Vol 88 (6) ◽  
pp. 445-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Sanguineti ◽  
Paola Franzone ◽  
Laura Culp ◽  
Michela Marcenaro ◽  
Salvina Barra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Radical Prostatectomy ◽  
Adjuvant Radiotherapy ◽  
Potential Role ◽  
Specific Antigen ◽  
Salvage Treatment ◽  
Salvage Radiotherapy ◽  
Risk Of Failure

Aims and background The role of radiotherapy after prostatectomy is controversial. This paper tries to give some guidelines for everyday practice through an analysis of literature data. Methods The potential role of radiotherapy in the adjuvant and salvage setting is discussed. We also report and interpret available literature data for both settings. Results As regards an increase in or detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) after radical prostatectomy, about 40–50% of patients are rendered bNED with local salvage radiotherapy, but only 10–50% are long-term (5 years) biochemically controlled. A timely salvage treatment is crucial to optimize control probability. As regards adjuvant radiotherapy for undetectable postoperative PSA in patients at high risk of failure as judged on pathology, results are more encouraging. Recent data report bNED rates ≥70% at 5 years. Conclusions Although results are far from satisfactory, salvage radiotherapy should be considered for every patient with an increased or detectable PSA after surgery. Adjuvant radiotherapy seems preferable to salvage radiotherapy for patients at high (>30%) risk of failure.

Long-Term Risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome: Prognostic Role of Complete Blood Cell Count

Angiology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 71 (9) ◽  
pp. 831-839
Author(s):  
Nuccia Morici ◽  
Valentina Molinari ◽  
Silvia Cantoni ◽  
Andrea Rubboli ◽  
Laura Antolini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Coronary Syndrome ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Blood Cell ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Blood Cell Count ◽  
Prognostic Role ◽  
Coronary Syndrome

Individual parameters of complete blood count (CBC) have been associated with worse outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, the prognostic role of CBC taken as a whole has never been evaluated for long-term incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Patients were grouped according to their hematopoietic cells’ inflammatory response at different time points during hospital stay. Patients with admission white blood cell count >10 × 109/L, discharge hemoglobin <120 g/L, and discharge platelet count >250 × 109/L were defined as “high-risk CBC.” Among 1076 patients with ACS discharged alive, 129 (12%) had a “high-risk CBC” and 947 (88%) had a “low-risk CBC.” Patients with “high-risk CBC” were older and had more comorbidities. Over a median follow-up of 665 days, they experienced a higher incidence of MACE compared to “low-risk CBC” patients (18.6% vs 8.1%). After adjustment for age, age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index, female sex, cardiac arrest, suboptimal discharge therapy, coronary artery bypass, and ejection fraction, a high-risk CBC was significantly associated with increased MACE occurrence (adjusted hazard ratio 1.80; 95% CI: 1.09-3.00). The CBC was a prognostic marker in patients with ACS, and its evaluation at admission and discharge could better classify patient’s risk and improve therapeutic management.

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