Sequential modelling of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake cluster using multisource satellite observations and quantitative assessment of Coulomb stress change

2020 ◽  
Vol 221 (1) ◽  
pp. 451-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Xu ◽  
Qiang Chen ◽  
Jingjing Zhao ◽  
Xianwen Liu ◽  
Yinghui Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Normal Fault ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Potential Zone ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Sequence Of Events

SUMMARY A sequence of earthquake events consisting of three large shocks occurred in Central Italy from August to October in 2016 with the duration of almost 2 months. The preliminary study on the seismic mechanism suggests that the sequence of events is the result from the activity of the SW dipping Mt Bove–Mt Vettore–Mt Gorzano normal fault system. For investigation and understanding of the coseismic faulting of the seismogenic fault alignment, we collect a set of comprehensive satellite observations including the Sentinel-1A, ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 and GPS data to map the coseismic surface deformation and estimate the source models in this study. The derived faulting model for the first Amatrice event is characterized by two distinct slip asperities suggesting that it is a predominantly normal dip-slip motion with slight strike-slip component. The second event, Visso earthquake is almost a purely normal rupture. The third Norcia event is dominated by the normal dip-slip rupture of the seismogenic fault, and has propagated up to the ground with significant slip. The three faulting models are then utilized to quantify the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) change over the seismic zone. First, the CFS change on the subsequent two seismogenic faults of the earthquake sequence is estimated, and the derived positive CFS change induced by the preceding earthquakes suggests that the early events have positive effects on triggering the subsequent seismicity. We then explore the response relation of the aftershocks including 961 events with magnitudes larger than M 3.0 to the CFS change over the seismic zone. It suggests that the rupture pattern of the aftershocks is similar to the major shocks with predominantly normal dip-slip. To assess the risk of the future seismic hazard, we analyse quantitatively the spatial distribution of aftershock occurrence and CFS transfer at the seismogenic depth, indicating that the ruptures of the three major shocks do partly release the accumulated strain on the associated fault alignment as well as the dense aftershock, but the CFS increase zone with few aftershocks in the southwest of the eastern Quaternary fault alignment of Central Italy poses the potential of further rupture. In particular, the distribution of aftershock migration also suggests that the north extension of the Mt Bove fault is the potential zone with rupture risk.

scholarly journals On the complexity of surface ruptures during normal faulting earthquakes: excerpts from the 6 April 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) earthquake (<i>M</i><sub>w</sub> 6.3)

Solid Earth ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 389-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Bonini ◽  
D. Di Bucci ◽  
G. Toscani ◽  
S. Seno ◽  
G. Valensise
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Normal Fault ◽  
Normal Faulting ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Geological Evidence ◽  
Central Italy Earthquake ◽  
Seismological Data ◽  
Seismogenic Source ◽  
Earthquake Potential

Abstract. Over the past few years the assessment of the earthquake potential of large continental faults has increasingly relied on field investigations. State-of-the-art seismic hazard models are progressively complementing the information derived from earthquake catalogs with geological observations of active faulting. Using these observations, however, requires full understanding of the relationships between seismogenic slip at depth and surface deformation, such that the evidence indicating the presence of a large, potentially seismogenic fault can be singled out effectively and unambiguously. We used observations and models of the 6 April 2009, Mw 6.3, L'Aquila, normal faulting earthquake to explore the relationships between the activity of a large fault at seismogenic depth and its surface evidence. This very well-documented earthquake is representative of mid-size yet damaging earthquakes that are frequent around the Mediterranean basin, and was chosen as a paradigm of the nature of the associated geological evidence, along with observational difficulties and ambiguities. Thanks to the available high-resolution geologic, geodetic and seismological data aided by analog modeling, we reconstructed the full geometry of the seismogenic source in relation to surface and sub-surface faults. We maintain that the earthquake was caused by seismogenic slip in the range 3–10 km depth, and that the slip distribution was strongly controlled by inherited discontinuities. We also contend that faulting was expressed at the surface by pseudo-primary breaks resulting from coseismic crustal bending and by sympathetic slip on secondary faults. Based on our results we propose a scheme of normal fault hierarchization through which all surface occurrences related to faulting at various depths can be interpreted in the framework of a single, mechanically coherent model. We stress that appreciating such complexity is crucial to avoiding severe over- or under-estimation of the local seismogenic potential.

Evidence for contemporary vertical fault displacement from precise leveling data near the New Madrid seismic zone, western Kentucky

1981 ◽  
Vol 71 (6) ◽  
pp. 1933-1942
Author(s):  
F. Steve Schilt ◽  
Robert E. Reilinger
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Apparent Movement ◽  
Normal Fault ◽  
Elastic Half Space ◽  
Focal Mechanisms ◽  
New Madrid Seismic Zone ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
The Times ◽  
Western Kentucky ◽  
New Madrid

Abstract Relative vertical displacements of bench marks in extreme western Kentucky have been determined by comparison of successive leveling surveys in 1947 and 1968. The resulting pattern of apparent surface deformation shows steep offset which can be closely modeled by a normal fault buried in an elastic half-space. The offset is located near the northern boundary of the Mississippi Embayment and the New Madrid seismic zone, an area where faults have previously been inferred on the basis of both geological and geophysical evidence. If the apparent movement is due to slip along a fault, several lines of evidence (regional structure, earthquake data, and lineations) suggest that the postulated fault trends NNE. Thirteen earthquakes were recorded in this area between the times of leveling; focal mechanisms exist for three of these. The nearest of these three focal mechanisms to the leveling offset implies normal faulting. The magnitude of the earthquake, however, appears to be too small to account for the amount of slip required by the fault model. Thus the apparent deformation may have accumulated with several undetected small earthquakes, or gradually as aseismic creep.

scholarly journals Workflow of Digital Field Mapping and Drone-Aided Survey for the Identification and Characterization of Capable Faults: The Case of a Normal Fault System in the Monte Nerone Area (Northern Apennines, Italy)

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 616
Author(s):  
Mauro De Donatis ◽  
Mauro Alberti ◽  
Mattia Cipicchia ◽  
Nelson Muñoz Guerrero ◽  
Giulio F. Pappafico ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Italy ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Normal Fault ◽  
Field Work ◽  
Digital Data ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Seismic Profiles ◽  
Postgraduate Students ◽  
Recent Earthquakes

Field work on the search and characterization of ground effects of a historical earthquake (i.e., the Cagli earthquake in 1781) was carried out using terrestrial and aerial digital tools. The method of capturing, organizing, storing, and elaborating digital data is described herein, proposing a possible workflow starting from pre-field project organization, through reiteration of field and intermediate laboratory work, to final interpretation and synthesis. The case of one of the most important seismic events in the area of the northern Umbria–Marche Apennines provided the opportunity to test the method with both postgraduate students and researchers. The main result of this work was the mapping of a capable normal fault system with a great number of observations, as well as a large amount of data, from difficult outcrop areas. A GIS map and a three-dimensional (3D) model, with the integration of subsurface data (i.e., seismic profiles and recent earthquake distribution information), allowed for a new interpretation of an extensional tectonic regime of this Apennines sector, similar to one of the southernmost areas of central Italy where recent earthquakes occurred on 2016.

scholarly journals Surface Faulting Caused by the 2016 Central Italy Seismic Sequence: Field Mapping and LiDAR/UAV Imaging

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 1585-1610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Gori ◽  
Emanuela Falcucci ◽  
Fabrizio Galadini ◽  
Paolo Zimmaro ◽  
Alberto Pizzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Imaging Techniques ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Normal Fault ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Surface Rupture ◽  
Field Mapping ◽  
Central Italy Earthquake ◽  
Levels Of Detail ◽  
Main Fault ◽  
Surface Ruptures

The three mainshock events (M6.1 24 August, M5.9 26 October, and M6.5 30 October 2016) in the Central Italy earthquake sequence produced surface ruptures on known segments of the Mt. Vettore–Mt. Bove normal fault system. As a result, teams from Italian national research institutions and universities, working collaboratively with the U.S. Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance Association (GEER), were mobilized to collect perishable data. Our reconnaissance approach included field mapping and advanced imaging techniques, both directed towards documenting the location and extent of surface rupture on the main fault exposure and secondary features. Mapping activity occurred after each mainshock (with different levels of detail at different times), which provides data on the progression of locations and amounts of slip between events. Along the full length of the Mt. Vettore–Mt. Bove fault system, vertical offsets ranged from 0–35 cm and 70–200 cm for the 24 August and 30 October events, respectively. Comparisons between observed surface rupture displacements and available empirical models show that the three events fit within expected ranges.

scholarly journals Brief communication: Co-seismic displacement on 26 and 30 October 2016 (<i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 5.9 and 6.5) – earthquakes in central Italy from the analysis of a local GNSS network

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 1885-1892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgio De Guidi ◽  
Alessia Vecchio ◽  
Fabio Brighenti ◽  
Riccardo Caputo ◽  
Francesco Carnemolla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Geodetic Network ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Seismic Sequence ◽  
Epicentral Area ◽  
Seismic Displacement ◽  
Fault Trace ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite

Abstract. On 24 August 2016 a strong earthquake (Mw = 6.0) affected central Italy and an intense seismic sequence started. Field observations, DInSAR (Differential INterferometry Synthetic-Aperture Radar) analyses and preliminary focal mechanisms, as well as the distribution of aftershocks, suggested the reactivation of the northern sector of the Laga fault, the southern part of which was already rebooted during the 2009 L'Aquila sequence, and of the southern segment of the Mt Vettore fault system (MVFS). Based on this preliminary information and following the stress-triggering concept (Stein, 1999; Steacy et al., 2005), we tentatively identified a potential fault zone that is very vulnerable to future seismic events just north of the earlier epicentral area. Accordingly, we planned a local geodetic network consisting of five new GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) stations located a few kilometres away from both sides of the MVFS. This network was devoted to working out, at least partially but in some detail, the possible northward propagation of the crustal network ruptures. The building of the stations and a first set of measurements were carried out during a first campaign (30 September and 2 October 2016). On 26 October 2016, immediately north of the epicentral area of the 24 August event, another earthquake (Mw = 5.9) occurred, followed 4 days later (30 October) by the main shock (Mw = 6.5) of the whole 2016 summer–autumn seismic sequence. Our local geodetic network was fully affected by the new events and therefore we performed a second campaign soon after (11–13 November 2016). In this brief note, we provide the results of our geodetic measurements that registered the co-seismic and immediately post-seismic deformation of the two major October shocks, documenting in some detail the surface deformation close to the fault trace. We also compare our results with the available surface deformation field of the broader area, obtained on the basis of the DInSAR technique, and show an overall good fit.

scholarly journals Co-Seismic Deformation and Fault Slip Model of the 2017 Mw 7.3 Darbandikhan, Iran–Iraq Earthquake Inferred from D-InSAR Measurements

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 2521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zicheng Huang ◽  
Guohong Zhang ◽  
Xinjian Shan ◽  
Wenyu Gong ◽  
Yingfeng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Sedimentary Cover ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
Crystalline Basement ◽  
Geometrical Parameters ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Blind Thrust ◽  
Seismic Deformation

The 12 November 2017 Darbandikhan earthquake (Mw 7.3) occurred along the converence zone. Despite the extensive research on this earthquake, none of this work explained whether this earthquake rupture was limited to the thick sedimentary cover or it extends to the underlying crystalline basement rock (or both). Besides, whether this region will generate devastating earthquakes again and whether there is a one-to-one correlation between these anticlines and blind-reverse faults need further investigation. In this study, we derived the co-seismic interferograms from the Sentinel-1A/B data and successfully described the surface deformation of the main seismic zone. The fringe patterns of both the ascending and descending interferograms show that the co-seismic deformation is dominated by horizontal movements. Then, using the along- and across-track deformation fields of different orbits, we retrieved the three-dimensional deformation field, which suggests that the Darbandikhan earthquake may be a blind thrust fault close to the north–south direction. Finally, we inverted the geometrical parameters of the seismogenic fault and the slip distribution of the fault plane. The results show that the source fault has an average strike of 355.5° and a northeast dip angle of −17.5°. In addition, the Darbandikhan earthquake has an average rake of 135.5°, with the maximum slip of 4.5 m at 14.5 km depth. On the basis of the derived depth and the aftershock information provided by the Iranian Seismological Center, we inferred that this event primarily ruptured within the crystalline basement and the seismogenic fault is the Zagros Mountain Front Fault (MFF). The seismogenic region has both relatively low historical seismicity and convergent strain rate, which suggests that the vicinity of the epicenter may have absorbed the majority of the energy released by the convergence between the Arabian and the Eurasian plates and may generate Mw > 7 earthquakes again. Moreover, the Zagros front fold between the Lurestan Arc and the Kirkuk Embayment may be generated by the long-distance slippage of the uppermost sedimentary cover in response to the sudden shortening of the MFF basement. We thus conclude that the master blind thrust may control the generation of the Zagros front folding.

Shallow structural setting of an active normal fault zone in the 30 October 2016 Mw 6.5 central Italy earthquake imaged through a multidisciplinary geophysical approach.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Villani ◽  
Stefano Maraio ◽  
Pier Paolo Bruno ◽  
Lisa Serri ◽  
Vincenzo Sapia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Fault Zone ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Normal Fault ◽  
Alluvial Fan ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Depth Range ◽  
Inversion Algorithm ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Refraction Tomography

&lt;p&gt;We investigate the shallow structure of an active normal fault-zone that ruptured the surface during the 30 October 2016 Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquake (central Italy) using a multidisciplinary geophysical approach. The survey site is located in the Castelluccio basin, an intramontane Quaternary depression in the hangingwall of the SW-dipping Vettore-Bove fault system. The Norcia earthquake caused widespread surface faulting affecting also the Castelluccio basin, where the rupture trace follows the 2 km-long Valle delle Fonti fault (VF), displaying a ~3 m-high fault scarp due to cumulative surface slip of Holocene paleo-earthquakes. We explored the subsurface of the VF fault along a 2-D transect orthogonal to the coseismic rupture on recent alluvial fan deposits, combining very high-resolution seismic refraction tomography, multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW), reflection seismology and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We acquired the ERT profile using an array of 64 steel electrodes, 2 m-spaced. Apparent resistivity data were then modeled via a linearized inversion algorithm with smoothness constraints to recover the subsurface resistivity distribution. The seismic data were recorded by&amp;#160; a190 m-long single array centered on the surface rupture, using 96 vertical geophones 2 m-spaced and a 5 kg hammer source.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Input data for refraction tomography are ~9000 handpicked first arrival travel-times, inverted through a fully non-linear multi-scale algorithm based on a finite-difference Eikonal solver. The data for MASW were extracted from common receiver configurations with 24 geophones; the dispersion curves were inverted to generate several S-wave 1-D profiles, subsequently interpolated to generate a pseudo-2D Vs section. For reflection data, after a pre-processing flow, the picking of the maximum of semblance on CMP super-gathers was used to define a velocity model (VNMO) for CMP ensemble stack; the final stack velocity macro-model (VNMO) from the CMP processing was smoothed and used for post-stack depth conversion. We further processed Vp, Vs and resistivity models through the K-means algorithm, which performs a cluster analysis for the bivariate data set to individuate relationships between the two sets of variables. The result is an integrated model with a finite number of homogeneous clusters.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the depth converted reflection section, the subsurface of the VF fault displays abrupt reflection truncations in the 5-60 m depth range suggesting a cumulative fault throw of ~30 m. Furthermore, another normal fault appears in the in the footwall. The reflection image points out alternating high-amplitude reflections that we interpret as a stack of alluvial sandy-gravels layers that thickens in the hangingwall of the VF fault. Resistivity, Vp and Vs models provide hints on the physical properties of the active fault zone, appearing as a moderately conductive (&lt; 150 &amp;#8486;m) elongated body with relatively high-Vp (~1500 m/s) and low-Vs (&lt; 500 m/s). The Vp/Vs ratio &gt; 3 and the Poisson&amp;#8217;s coefficient &gt; 0.4 in the fault zone suggest this is a granular nearly-saturated medium, probably related to the increase of permeability due to fracturing and shearing. The results from the K-means cluster analysis also identify a homogeneous cluster in correspondence of the saturated fault zone.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Machine-Learning-Based High-Resolution Earthquake Catalog Reveals How Complex Fault Structures Were Activated during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Sequence

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-19
Author(s):  
Yen Joe Tan ◽  
Felix Waldhauser ◽  
William L. Ellsworth ◽  
Miao Zhang ◽  
Weiqiang Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Italy ◽  
Normal Fault ◽  
Earthquake Sequence ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Earthquake Triggering ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Arrival Times ◽  
Complex Fault ◽  
Fault Structures

Abstract The 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence occurred on an 80 km long normal-fault system. The sequence initiated with the Mw 6.0 Amatrice event on 24 August 2016, followed by the Mw 5.9 Visso event on 26 October and the Mw 6.5 Norcia event on 30 October. We analyze continuous data from a dense network of 139 seismic stations to build a high-precision catalog of ∼900,000 earthquakes spanning a 1 yr period, based on arrival times derived using a deep-neural-network-based picker. Our catalog contains an order of magnitude more events than the catalog routinely produced by the local earthquake monitoring agency. Aftershock activity reveals the geometry of complex fault structures activated during the earthquake sequence and provides additional insights into the potential factors controlling the development of the largest events. Activated fault structures in the northern and southern regions appear complementary to faults activated during the 1997 Colfiorito and 2009 L’Aquila sequences, suggesting that earthquake triggering primarily occurs on critically stressed faults. Delineated major fault zones are relatively thick compared to estimated earthquake location uncertainties, and a large number of kilometer-long faults and diffuse seismicity were activated during the sequence. These properties might be related to fault age, roughness, and the complexity of inherited structures. The rich details resolvable in this catalog will facilitate continued investigation of this energetic and well-recorded earthquake sequence.

scholarly journals Multiple Lines of Evidence for a Potentially Seismogenic Fault Along the Central-Apennine (Italy) Active Extensional Belt–An Unexpected Outcome of the MW6.5 Norcia 2016 Earthquake

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federica Ferrarini ◽  
Rita de Nardis ◽  
Francesco Brozzetti ◽  
Daniele Cirillo ◽  
J Ramón Arrowsmith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Tectonic Setting ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Normal Fault ◽  
Normal Faults ◽  
Coulomb Stress ◽  
Seismic Sequence ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Seismogenic Source

The Apenninic chain, in central Italy, has been recently struck by the Norcia 2016 seismic sequence. Three mainshocks, in 2016, occurred on August 24 (MW6.0), October 26 (MW 5.9) and October 30 (MW6.5) along well-known late Quaternary active WSW-dipping normal faults. Coseismic fractures and hypocentral seismicity distribution are mostly associated with failure along the Mt Vettore-Mt Bove (VBF) fault. Nevertheless, following the October 26 shock, the aftershock spatial distribution suggests the activation of a source not previously mapped beyond the northern tip of the VBF system. In this area, a remarkable seismicity rate was observed also during 2017 and 2018, the most energetic event being the April 10, 2018 (MW4.6) normal fault earthquake. In this paper, we advance the hypothesis that the Norcia seismic sequence activated a previously unknown seismogenic source. We constrain its geometry and seismogenic behavior by exploiting: 1) morphometric analysis of high-resolution topographic data; 2) field geologic- and morphotectonic evidence within the context of long-term deformation constraints; 3) 3D seismological validation of fault activity, and 4) Coulomb stress transfer modeling. Our results support the existence of distributed and subtle deformation along normal fault segments related to an immature structure, the Pievebovigliana fault (PBF). The fault strikes in NNW-SSE direction, dips to SW and is in right-lateral en echelon setting with the VBF system. Its activation has been highlighted by most of the seismicity observed in the sector. The geometry and location are compatible with volumes of enhanced stress identified by Coulomb stress-transfer computations. Its reconstructed length (at least 13 km) is compatible with the occurrence of MW≥6.0 earthquakes in a sector heretofore characterized by low seismic activity. The evidence for PBF is a new observation associated with the Norcia 2016 seismic sequence and is consistent with the overall tectonic setting of the area. Its existence implies a northward extent of the intra-Apennine extensional domain and should be considered to address seismic hazard assessments in central Italy.

scholarly journals On the complexity of surface ruptures during normal faulting earthquakes: excerpts from the 6 April 2009, L'Aquila (central Italy) earthquake (<i>M</i><sub>w</sub> 6.3)

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 2043-2079
Author(s):  
L. Bonini ◽  
D. Di Bucci ◽  
G. Toscani ◽  
S. Seno ◽  
G. Valensise
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Normal Faults ◽  
Normal Faulting ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Earthquake Catalogues ◽  
Central Italy Earthquake ◽  
Seismological Data ◽  
Seismogenic Source ◽  
Earthquake Potential

Abstract. Over the past few years the assessment of the earthquake potential of large continental faults has increasingly relied on field investigations. State-of-the-art seismic hazard models are progressively complementing the information derived from earthquake catalogues with geological observations of active faulting. Using these observations, however, requires full understanding of the relationships between seismogenic slip at depth and surface deformation, such that the evidence indicating the presence of a large, potentially seismogenic fault can be singled out effectively and unambiguously. We used observations and models of the 6 April 2009, Mw 6.3, L'Aquila, normal faulting earthquake to explore the relationships between the activity of a large fault at seismogenic depth and its surface evidence. This very well-documented earthquake is representative of mid-size yet damaging earthquakes that are frequent around the Mediterranean Basin, and is somehow paradigmatic of the nature of the associated geologic evidence along with observational difficulties and ambiguities. Thanks to available high-resolution geologic, geodetic and seismological data aided by analogue modeling, we reconstructed the full geometry of the seismogenic source in relation with surface and sub-surface faults. We find that the earthquake was caused by seismogenic slip in the range 3–10 km depth, and that the slip distribution was strongly controlled by inherited discontinuities. We also contend that faulting was expressed at the surface by pseudo-primary breaks resulting from coseismic crustal bending and by sympathetic slip on secondary faults. Based on our results we propose a scheme for hierarchizing normal faults through which all surface occurrences related to faulting at depth can be interpreted in the frame of a single, mechanically coherent model. Appreciating such complexity is crucial to avoid severe over- or under-estimation of the local seismogenic potential.

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