scholarly journals Two global ensemble seismicity models obtained from the combination of interseismic strain measurements and earthquake-catalogue information

2020 ◽  
Vol 224 (3) ◽  
pp. 1945-1955
Author(s):  
J A Bayona ◽  
W Savran ◽  
A Strader ◽  
S Hainzl ◽  
F Cotton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Earthquake Catalogue ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Tectonic Earthquake ◽  
Strain Measurements ◽  
Seismicity Models ◽  
Global Seismicity ◽  
Earthquake Models

SUMMARY Global seismicity models provide scientific hypotheses about the rate, location and magnitude of future earthquakes to occur worldwide. Given the aleatory variability of earthquake activity and epistemic uncertainties in seismicity forecasting, the veracity of these hypotheses can only be confirmed or rejected after prospective forecast evaluation. In this study, we present the construction of and test results for two updated global earthquake models, aimed at providing mean estimates of shallow (d ≤ 70 km) seismicity for seismic hazard assessment. These approaches, referred to as the Tectonic Earthquake Activity Model (TEAM) and the World Hybrid Earthquake Estimates based on Likelihood scores (WHEEL) model, use the Subduction Megathrust Earthquake Rate Forecast (SMERF2), an earthquake-rate model for subduction zones constrained by geodetic strain measurements and earthquake-catalogue information. Thus, these global ensemble seismicity models capture two independent components necessary for long-term earthquake forecasting, namely interseismic crustal strain accumulation and sudden lithospheric stress release. The calibration period for TEAM and WHEEL extends from 1977 January 1 to 2013 December 31. Accordingly, we use m ≥ 5.95 earthquakes recorded during the 2014–2019 period to pseudo-prospectively evaluate the forecasting skills of these earthquake models, and statistically compare their performances to that of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1) model. As a result, GEAR1 and WHEEL are the most informative global seismicity models during the pseudo-prospective test period, as both rank with the highest information scores among all participant earthquake-rate forecasts. Nonetheless, further prospective evaluations are required to more accurately assess the abilities of these global ensemble seismicity models to forecast long-term earthquake activity.

A physical constraint on smoothed-seismicity models and the stationary seismicity assumption in long-term forecasting

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Iturrieta ◽  
Danijel Schorlemmer ◽  
Fabrice Cotton ◽  
José Bayona ◽  
Karina Loviknes
Keyword(s):  
Time Window ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Stress And Strain ◽  
Balance Principle ◽  
Seismicity Models ◽  
Smoothed Seismicity ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Seismic Catalog

<p>In earthquake forecasting, smoothed-seismicity models (SSM) are based on the assumption that previous earthquakes serve as a guideline for future events. Different kernels are used to spatially extrapolate each moment tensor from a seismic catalog into a moment-rate density field. Nevertheless, governing mechanical principles remain absent through the model conception, even though crustal stress is responsible for moment release mainly in pre-existent faults. Furthermore, a lately developed SSM by Hiemer et al., 2013 (SEIFA) incorporates active-fault characterization and deformation rates stochastically, so that a geological estimate of moment release could also be taken into account. Motivated by this innovative approach, we address the question: How representative is the stochastic temporal/spatial averaging of SEIFA, of the long-term crustal deformation and stress? In this context, physics-based modeling provides insights about the energy, stress, and strain-rate fields within the crust due to discontinuities found therein. In this work, we aim to understand the required temporal window of SEIFA to satisfy mechanically its underlying assumption of stationarity. We build various SEIFA models within different spatio-temporal subsets of a catalog and confront them with a physics-based model of long-term seismic energy/moment rate. Following, we develop a method based on the moment-balance principle and information theory to compare the spatial similarity between these two types of models. These models are built from two spatially conforming layers of information: a complete seismic catalog and a computerized 3-D geometry of mapped faults along with their long-term slip rate. SEIFA uses both datasets to produce a moment-density rate field, from which later a forecast could be derived. A simple physics-based model is used as proof of concept, such as the steady-state Boundary Element Method (BEM). It uses the fault 3D geometry and slip rates to calculate the long-term interseismic energy rate and elastic stress and strain tensors, accumulated both along the faults and within the crust. The SHARE European Earthquake Catalog and the European Database of Seismogenic Faults are used as a case study, constrained to crustal faults and different spatio-temporal subsets of the Italy region in the 1000-2006 time window. The moment-balance principle is analyzed in terms of its spatial distribution calculating the spatial mutual information (SMI) between both models as a similarity measure. Finally, by using the SMI as a minimization function, we determine the catalog optimal time window for which the predicted moment rate by the SSM is closer to the geomechanical prediction. We emphasize that regardless of the stationarity assumption usefulness in seismicity forecasting, we determine a simple method that provides a physical boundary to data-driven seismicity models. This framework may be used in the future to combine seismicity data and geophysical modeling for earthquake forecasting.</p>

scholarly journals Pemodelan 2-Dimensi dan 3-Dimensi Penyebaran Bijih Besi Menggunakan Data Resistivitas dan IP di Daerah “A” Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-63
Author(s):  
Siva Dwi Harum ◽  
Elvan Yuniarti ◽  
Dwi Haryanto
Keyword(s):  
Velocity Structure ◽  
Active Movement ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Initial Speed ◽  
Earthquake Relocation ◽  
Tectonic Earthquake ◽  
P Waves ◽  
Earthquake Parameters ◽  
Surrounding Areas ◽  
Central Sulawesi

Sulawesi Island is composed of complex tectonic arrangements. Most earthquake activities in Sulawesi are affected by the Palu - Koro Fault and Matano Fault. Palu - Koro Fault and Matano Fault are one of the faults in Central Sulawesi. Active movement of the fault results in high earthquake activity in the region of Central Sulawesi and its surroundings. This makes the importance of earthquake parameters in Central Sulawesi and surrounding areas. One of the efforts to find out earthquake parameter information accurately is to relocate. The purpose of this study was to conduct hypocenter earthquake relocation and determine the 1-D velocity structure of P waves in Central and surrounding areas using the Coupled Velocity - Hypocenter method with Velest 3.3 software. The data used are tectonic earthquake data from November 2009 to March 2018, data recording stations, and initial speed data. The results of data processing using the Velest 3.3 software are that some of the results of the relocation are close to fault, the final Vp at a depth of 9 km is slower than the initial Vp, the correction of the station obtained in this calculation is in the interval -0.81 to +0.54. 

scholarly journals Precursory pattern of tidal triggering of earthquakes in six regions of China: the possible relation to the crustal heterogeneity

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 2605-2618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Li ◽  
G.-M. Xu
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Earthquake Occurrence ◽  
Crustal Rocks ◽  
Tidal Triggering ◽  
Crustal Heterogeneity ◽  
Tidal Variations ◽  
Prediction Efficiency

Abstract. We found the possible correlation between the precursory pattern of tidal triggering of earthquakes and the crustal heterogeneities, which is of particular importance to the researchers in earthquake prediction and earthquake hazard prevention. We investigated the connection between the tidal variations and earthquake occurrence in the Liyang, Wunansha, Cangshan, Wenan, Luquan and Yaoan regions of China. Most of the regions show a higher correlation with tidal triggering in several years preceding the large or destructive earthquakes compared to other times, indicating that the tidal triggering may inherently relate to the nucleation of the destructive earthquakes during this time. In addition, the analysis results indicate that the Liyang, Cangshan and Luquan regions, with stronger heterogeneity, show statistically significant effects of tidal triggering preceding the large or destructive earthquakes, while the Wunansha, Wenan and Yaoan regions, with relatively weak heterogeneity, show statistically insignificant effects of it, signifying that the precursory pattern of tidal triggering of earthquakes in these six regions is possibly related to the heterogeneities of the crustal rocks. The above results suggest that when people try to find the potential earthquake hazardous areas or make middle–long-term earthquake forecasting by means of precursory pattern of the tidal triggering, the crustal heterogeneity in these areas has to be taken into consideration for the purpose of increasing the prediction efficiency. If they do not consider the influence of crustal heterogeneity on the tidal triggering of earthquakes, the prediction efficiency might greatly decrease.

scholarly journals EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF VISUALI ZATION METHODS OF EARTH QUAKE CATALOGUE MAPS

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 156-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Pődor ◽  
Marta Kiszely
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Investigation ◽  
Earth Quake ◽  
3D Visualization ◽  
Earthquake Catalogue ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Released Energy ◽  
Preliminary Research ◽  
Visualization Techniques

The aim of the study is to find possible solutions to represent earthquake catalogue data and design maps which can help non-professionals to identify those places where earthquakes occurred frequently. The goal is to visualize all available catalogue data sets in a complex way on a single map, displaying the long-term recurrence times of earthquakes. Therefore, raw data and aggregated data were combined with different cartographic visualization techniques to test the applicability of earthquake maps. Preliminary research demonstrates that aggregation can improve the process of retrieving information from earthquake maps and 3D visualization is useful to find the places of earthquakes of highest magnitude. A second result is that 3D visualization is not effective in the comparison of quantities of released energy and the number of earthquakes.

Limited subduction of water to mid-upper mantle depths predicted by the phase assemblages in hydrated peridotites with natural chemical composition at high-PT conditions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nestor Cerpa ◽  
Diane Arcay ◽  
José Alberto Padrón-Navarta
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Thermal State ◽  
Water Flux ◽  
Geochemical Evolution ◽  
Hydrous Minerals ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Global Water

<p>The water exchange between the Earth’s surface and the deep interior is a prime process for the geochemical evolution of our planet and its dynamics. The degassing of water from the mantle takes place through volcanism whereas mantle regassing occurs through the subduction of H<sub>2</sub>O chemically bound to hydrous minerals. The (im)balance between degassing and regassing controls the budget of surficial liquid water over geological timescales, i.e, the long-term global sea level. Continental freeboard constraints show that the mean-sea level has remained relatively constant in the last 540 Ma (changes less than about 100 m), thus suggesting a limited imbalance. However, thermopetrological models of water fluxes at present-day subduction zones predict that regassing exceeds degassing by about 50% which, if extrapolated to the past, would have induced a drop inconsistent with the estimations of the long-term sea-level. We have made the case that these inconsistencies arise from thermodynamic predictions for the hydrated lithospheric mantle mineralogy that are poorly constrained at a high pressure (P) and temperature (T). In our study, we thus have revised the global-water flux calculations in subduction zones using petrological constraints on post-antigorite assemblages from recent laboratory experimental data on natural peridotites under high-PT conditions [e.g. Maurice et al, 2018].</p><p>We model the thermal state of all present-day mature subduction zones along with petrological modeling using the thermodynamic code Perple_X and the most updated version of the thermodynamic database of Holland and Powell [2011]. For the modeling of peridotite, we build a hybrid phase diagram that combines thermodynamic calculations at moderate PT and experimental data at high PT (> 6 GPa- 600˚C). Our updated thermopetrological model reveals that the hydrated mantle efficiently dehydrates upon the breakdown of the hydrous aluminous-phase E before reaching 250 km in all but the coldest subduction zones. Further subducting slab dehydration is expected between 300-350 km depths, regardless of its thermal state, as a result of lawsonite breakdown in the gabbroic crust. Overall, we predict that present-day global water retention in subducting plates beyond a depth of 350 km barely exceeds the estimations of mantle degassing for average thicknesses of subducting serpentinized mantle subducting at the trenches of up to 6 km. Finally, our models quantitatively support the steady-state sea level scenario over geological times.</p><p> </p><p>Maurice, J., Bolfan-Casanova, N., Padrón-Navarta, J. A., Manthilake, G., Hammouda, T., Hénot, J. M., & Andrault, D. (2018). The stability of hydrous phases beyond antigorite breakdown for a magnetite-bearing natural serpentinite between 6.5 and 11 GPa. <em>Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology</em>, 173(10), 86.</p><p>Holland, T. J. B., & Powell, R. (2011). An improved and extended internally consistent thermodynamic dataset for phases of petrological interest, involving a new equation of state for solids. <em>Journal of Metamorphic Geology</em>, 29(3), 333-383.</p>

Earthquake ruptures tied to long-lived plate interface deformation 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadaya Cubas ◽  
Philippe Agard ◽  
Roxane Tissandier
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Mechanical Analysis ◽  
Physical Parameters ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Interface Deformation ◽  
Earthquake Hazard Assessment ◽  
Interseismic Coupling ◽  
Rate And State Friction

<p>Predicting the spatial extent of mega-earthquakes is an essential ingredient of earthquake hazard assessment. In subduction zones, this prediction mostly relies on geodetic observations of interseismic coupling. However, such models face spatial resolution issues and are of little help to predict full or partial ruptures of highly locked patches. Coupling models are interpreted in the framework of the rate-and-state friction laws. However, these models are too idealized to take into account the effects of a geometrically or rheologically complex plate interface. In this study, we show, from the critical taper theory and a mechanical analysis of the topography, that all recent mega-earthquakes of the Chilean subduction zone are surrounded by distributed interplate deformation emanating from either underplating or basal erosion. This long-lived plate interface deformation builds up stresses ultimately leading to earthquake nucleation. Earthquakes then propagate along a relatively smooth surface and are stopped by segments of heterogeneously distributed deformation. Our results are consistent with long-term features of the subduction margin, with observed short-term deformation as well as physical parameters of recovered subducted fragments. They also provide an explanation for the apparent mechanical segmentation of the megathrust, reconciling many seemingly contradictory observations on the short- and long-term deformation. Consequently, we propose that earthquake segmentation relates to the distribution of deformation along the plate interface and that slip deficit patterns reflect the along-dip and along-strike distribution of the plate interface deformation. Topography would therefore mirror plate interface deformation and could serve to improve earthquake rupture prediction.</p>

Integration of geological and seismological data in earthquakes occurrence models for Italy: towards a unified model for different forecast perspectives

2019 ◽  
Vol 219 (3) ◽  
pp. 2148-2164
Author(s):  
A M Lombardi
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Background Rate ◽  
Etas Model ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Earthquake Predictability ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Different Types

SUMMARY The operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is a procedure aimed at informing communities on how seismic hazard changes with time. This can help them live with seismicity and mitigate risk of destructive earthquakes. A successful short-term prediction scheme is not yet produced, but the search for it should not be abandoned. This requires more research on seismogenetic processes and, specifically, inclusion of any information about earthquakes in models, to improve forecast of future events, at any spatio-temporal-magnitude scale. The short- and long-term forecast perspectives of earthquake occurrence followed, up to now, separate paths, involving different data and peculiar models. But actually they are not so different and have common features, being parts of the same physical process. Research on earthquake predictability can help to search for a common path in different forecast perspectives. This study aims to improve the modelling of long-term features of seismicity inside the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, largely used for short-term forecast and OEF procedures. Specifically, a more comprehensive estimation of background seismicity rate inside the ETAS model is attempted, by merging different types of data (seismological instrumental, historical, geological), such that information on faults and on long-term seismicity integrates instrumental data, on which the ETAS models are generally set up. The main finding is that long-term historical seismicity and geological fault data improve the pseudo-prospective forecasts of independent seismicity. The study is divided in three parts. The first consists in models formulation and parameter estimation on recent seismicity of Italy. Specifically, two versions of ETAS model are compared: a ‘standard’, previously published, formulation, only based on instrumental seismicity, and a new version, integrating different types of data for background seismicity estimation. Secondly, a pseudo-prospective test is performed on independent seismicity, both to test the reliability of formulated models and to compare them, in order to identify the best version. Finally, a prospective forecast is made, to point out differences and similarities in predicting future seismicity between two models. This study must be considered in the context of its limitations; anyway, it proves, beyond argument, the usefulness of a more sophisticated estimation of background rate, inside short-term modelling of earthquakes.

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