Emigration and Political Contestation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret E Peters ◽  
Michael K Miller
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Instrumental Variables ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Global Patterns ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Democratic Norms

Abstract How does migration affect global patterns of political violence and protest? While political scientists have examined the links between trade and conflict, less attention has been paid to the links between migration and conflict. In this paper, we show that greater emigration reduces domestic political violence by providing exit opportunities for aggrieved citizens and economic benefits to those who remain. Emigration also reduces non-violent forms of political contestation, including protests and strikes, implying that high emigration rates can produce relatively quiescent populations. However, larger flows of emigrants to democracies can increase non-violent protest in autocracies, as exposure to freer countries spreads democratic norms and the tools of peaceful opposition. We use instrumental variables analysis to account for the endogeneity of migration flows and find robust results for a range of indicators of civil violence and protest from 1960 to 2010.

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Tir ◽  
Johannes Karreth
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Conflict Management ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Intergovernmental Organizations ◽  
State Fragility ◽  
International Environment

After summarizing the theoretical arguments and findings of this book, we discuss key lessons learned from our study. The international environment has a significant influence on civil war development and prevention. Amplifying their conflict-preventing influence on member-states, highly structured intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) often coordinate their activities, especially in the area of political violence and state fragility. We then identify a number of tangible, economic incentives as the main pathways of this influence. Overall, this book suggests that the economic benefits of peace provide a potent temptation—for both governments and rebels—to settle low-level armed conflict before it can escalate to full-scale civil war. With these lessons learned, we also identify suggestions for both the research into and practice of conflict management. The chapter closes by pointing to opportunities for making use of our findings to further capitalize on the role of highly structured IGOs in civil war prevention.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Forecasting Model for Scientific Migration in the Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1196-1209
Author(s):  
A.E. Sudakova ◽  
◽  
A.A. Tarasyev ◽  
D.G. Sandler ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Migration Factors ◽  
Dynamic Forecasting ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
Key Indicators ◽  
Scientific Migration

The population migration has attracted attention for more than a decade. As migration consequences differ in terms of characteristics and directions, governments worldwide are looking for solutions to regulate migration flows. The study aims to systematise push-pull factors of migration by analysing existing cases, as well as to build a model for predicting migration considering the quantitative interpretation of such factors. While migration factors are quite similar regardless of the country of residence, their main differences are compatibility and hierarchy. The most frequently mentioned factors include the expectation of income increase, improvement in the quality of life, professional aspects. Simultaneously, a certain pattern emerges: if a migrant’s material and economic needs are satisfied in the country of departure, they pay more attention to intangible/non-economic benefits (quality of life, infrastructure, etc.). A dynamic forecasting model for scientific migration has been developed based on the theory of positional games. The model demonstrates the changes in migration flows by describing the behaviour of a rational individual who seeks to maximise benefits from migration. The result of the simulation is a short-term forecast of trends in scientific migration of Ural scholars to key migration countries. The model predicts the intensification of migration flows to the leading Asian countries, their alignment with flows to America, and a decrease in migration to European countries. This forecast is characterised by a direct dependence of the dynamics of scientific migration flows on the socio-economic development of migration destinations. Practical implications of this study include the development of a predictive model describing migration flows in the short term as an analytical tool and systematisation of pull-push factors as key indicators for managing the migration flows of scientists. In addition, the research proposes measures positively affecting the balance of scientific migration.

scholarly journals Safety at work and immigration

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-221
Author(s):  
Cristina Bellés-Obrero ◽  
Nicolau Martin Bassols ◽  
Judit Vall Castello
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Instrumental Variables ◽  
Workplace Safety ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Administrative Dataset ◽  
Native Workers ◽  
Workplace Accidents ◽  
Immigration Debate ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
The Universe

Abstract This paper examines the effect of immigration on workplace safety, an understudied outcome in the literature. We use a novel administrative dataset of the universe of workplace accidents reported in Spain from 2003 to 2015 and follow an instrumental variables (IV) strategy based on the distribution of early migrants across provinces. Our results show that the massive inflow of immigrants between 2003 and 2009 reduced the number of workplace accidents by 10,980 for native workers (7% of the overall reduction during that period). This decline in workplace accidents is driven by Spanish-born workers shifting away from manual occupations to occupations involving more interpersonal interactions. Immigrant flows during the economic crisis (2010–2015) had no impact on natives’ workplace safety. The scarcity of jobs during that period may have prevented shifts between occupations. Finally, we find no effects of immigration on the workplace safety of immigrants. These results add a previously unexplored dimension to the immigration debate that should be taken into account when evaluating the costs and benefits of migration flows.

scholarly journals Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Schutte ◽  
Jonas Vestby ◽  
Jørgen Carling ◽  
Halvard Buhaug
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Forced Migration ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Poor Understanding ◽  
Migration Potential ◽  
Contextual Characteristics ◽  
Migration Flows

AbstractRecent research suggests that climate variability and change significantly affect forced migration, within and across borders. Yet, migration is also informed by a range of non-climatic factors, and current assessments are impeded by a poor understanding of the relative importance of these determinants. Here, we evaluate the eligibility of climatic conditions relative to economic, political, and contextual factors for predicting bilateral asylum migration to the European Union—form of forced migration that has been causally linked to climate variability. Results from a machine-learning prediction framework reveal that drought and temperature anomalies are weak predictors of asylum migration, challenging simplistic notions of climate-driven refugee flows. Instead, core contextual characteristics shape latent migration potential whereas political violence and repression are the most powerful predictors of time-varying migration flows. Future asylum migration flows are likely to respond much more to political changes in vulnerable societies than to climate change.

Welcoming the Unwelcome: Refugee Flows, Refugee Rights, and Political Violence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burcu Savun
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Fundamental Rights ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Freedom Of Movement ◽  
Perception Of Threat ◽  
Refugee Policies ◽  
Opposing Effects

Abstract This article examines refugee-related violence by exploring the effect of extensive refugee rights on the risk of civil conflict and violent attacks against refugees by local population. The provision of fundamental rights, such as the freedom of movement, can reduce refugee groups’ grievances, the risk of radicalization, and the ability of militant organizations to recruit refugees, thereby decreasing the risk of civil conflict. Regarding the behavior of local population toward refugees, two opposing effects of refugee rights may be at play. Extensive refugee policies may trigger civilian backlash by aggravating the perception of threat posed by refugees and increase the risk of civilian attacks against refugees. On the other hand, allowing refugees to integrate into society may provide economic benefits for locals and facilitate socialization between groups, reducing the motivation of citizens to target refugees. Using an original global dataset on refugee rights, I find that liberal refugee policies are associated with a reduction in the risk of civil conflict as well as anti-refugee violence in host states. This suggests that host governments and international organizations should give greater priority to guaranteeing refugee rights and promoting income-generating activities among uprooted populations to minimize potential security risks associated with refugees.

scholarly journals Elite rhetoric can undermine democratic norms

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (23) ◽  
pp. e2024125118
Author(s):  
Katherine Clayton ◽  
Nicholas T. Davis ◽  
Brendan Nyhan ◽  
Ethan Porter ◽  
Timothy J. Ryan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Job Performance ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Panel Survey ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Stability ◽  
Democratic Norms

Democratic stability depends on citizens on the losing side accepting election outcomes. Can rhetoric by political leaders undermine this norm? Using a panel survey experiment, we evaluate the effects of exposure to multiple statements from former president Donald Trump attacking the legitimacy of the 2020 US presidential election. Although exposure to these statements does not measurably affect general support for political violence or belief in democracy, it erodes trust and confidence in elections and increases belief that the election is rigged among people who approve of Trump’s job performance. These results suggest that rhetoric from political elites can undermine respect for critical democratic norms among their supporters.

scholarly journals Migration of Ukrainians at the pre-industrial stage of social development

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (52) ◽  
pp. 138-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lesia Didkivska
Keyword(s):  
Social Development ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Far East ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Labour Migration ◽  
Northern Caucasus ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Left Bank ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Migration Flows

The subject of the research is the migration history of Ukrainians at the pre-industrial stage of social development. The purpose of the article is the historical and economic analysis of migration trends and the identification of geographical vectors of the first migration flows on Ukrainian lands and the institutional factors and socioeconomic consequences of the spread of migration sentiment among the population during the period. The result of the study is the identification of features of the first migration flows in the Ukrainian territory, the classification of migration according to its causes, the identification of directions of the resettlement of Ukrainians and the consequences of emigration of Ukrainians. It was revealed that the labour migration of Ukrainians was preceded by political migration related to the regular attacks of Tatars and Turks, the fall of Kievan Rus, the loss of national statehood, the colonization of Ukrainian lands by foreign states. In spite of a number of negative consequences, the Ukrainian people received both economic benefits and qualitative progress in state-building. At the same time, labour migration led to the irreversible loss of the economically active working population, above all the peasantry, who were the most important group among Ukrainian emigrants. The main factors contributing to the labour migration of Ukrainians were similar: institutional (abolition of serfdom), demographic (reduction of mortality rate, while maintaining high fertility), socio-economic (low-income Ukrainian peasants, mass impoverishment and low standards of living), innovative infrastructure (development of the newest means of communication and large geographical discoveries) that encouraged intercountry resettlement. However, the vector of migratory flows of Ukrainians was rather diverse: Ukrainians under Austro-Hungary (Galicia, Northern Bukovina and Transcarpathian Ukraine) were covered by intercontinental migration (USA, Canada, Brazil and Argentina), while the peasants of the Left Bank and Central Ukraine migrated to the Northern Caucasus and the Far East.

Sri Lanka: Political violence and ethnic conflict.

1998 ◽  
Vol 53 (7) ◽  
pp. 771-777 ◽  
Author(s):  
John D. Rogers ◽  
Jonathan Spencer ◽  
Jayadeva Uyangoda
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Ethnic Conflict
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