Models and Surveillance Systems to Detect and Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 1508-1515 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M Barker
Keyword(s):  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Data Systems ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Data Services ◽  
Surveillance Programs ◽  
Electronic Data Systems

Abstract Over the past 20 yr, many models have been developed to predict risk for West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) disease in the human population. These models have aided our understanding of the meteorological and land-use variables that drive spatial and temporal patterns of human disease risk. During the same period, electronic data systems have been adopted by surveillance programs across much of the United States, including a growing interest in integrated data services that preserve the autonomy and attribution of credit to originating agencies but facilitate data sharing, analysis, and visualization at local, state, and national scales. At present, nearly all predictive models have been limited to the scientific literature, with few having been implemented for use by public-health and vector-control decision makers. The current article considers the development of models for spatial patterns, early warning, and early detection of WNV over the last 20 yr and considers some possible paths toward increasing the utility of these models for guiding interventions.

scholarly journals Long-term surveillance defines spatial and temporal patterns implicating Culex tarsalis as the primary vector of West Nile virus in Iowa, USA

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brendan M. Dunphy ◽  
Kristofer B. Kovach ◽  
Ella J. Gehrke ◽  
Eleanor N. Field ◽  
Wayne A. Rowley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Culex Tarsalis ◽  
Mosquito Vectors ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
West Nile

AbstractWest Nile virus (WNV) has become the most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease in the United States, causing ∼50,000 cases since its introduction in 1999. Transmitted primarily by Culex species, WNV transmission requires the complex interplay between bird reservoirs and mosquito vectors, with human cases the result of epizootic spillover. To better understand the intrinsic factors that drive these interactions, we have compiled infection data from sentinel chickens, mosquito vectors, and human cases in Iowa over a 15 year period (2002-2016) to better understand the spatial and temporal components that drive WNV transmission. Supplementing these findings with mosquito abundance, distribution, and host preferences data, we provide strong support that Culex tarsalis is the most important vector of human WNV infections in the region. Finally, we identify underlying climatic factors (temperature and drought) that are associated with inter-annual trends in WNV intensity. Together, our analysis provides new insights into WNV infection patterns in multiple hosts and highlights the importance of long-term surveillance to understand the dynamics of mosquito-borne-disease transmission.

scholarly journals Assessing Ultra-Fine-Scale Factors to Improve Human West Nile Virus Disease Models in the Chicago Area

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny Uelmen ◽  
Patrick Irwin ◽  
William Brown ◽  
Surendra Karki ◽  
Marilyn O'Hara Ruiz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cook County ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Chicago Area ◽  
Mosquito Infection

Abstract Background: Since 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has moved rapidly across the United States, resulting in tens of thousands of human cases. Both the number of human cases and the level of mosquito infection (MIR) vary across time and space and are related to numerous abiotic and biotic forces, ranging from differences in microclimates to socio-demographic factors. Because the interactions among these multiple factors affect the locally variable risk of WNV illness, it has been especially difficult to model human disease risk across varying spatial and temporal scales. Cook and DuPage Counties, comprising the city of Chicago and surrounding suburbs, are among the areas hardest hit by WNV in the United States. Despite active mosquito control efforts, there is consistent annual WNV presence, resulting in more than 285 confirmed WNV human cases and 20 deaths in the past 5 years in Cook County alone. Methods: A previous WNV model for the greater Chicago area identified the fifty-five most high and low risk study areas in the Northwest Mosquito Abatement District (NWMAD), an enclave ¼ the size of the previous study area. In these locations, human WNV risk was stratified by strength of predictive success, as indicated by differences in studentized residuals. Within these areas, an additional two-years of field collections and data processing was added to a 10-year WNV dataset and assessed by an ultra-fine-scale multivariate logistic regression model.Results: Multivariate statistical approaches revealed that this ultra-fine-scale model resulted in fewer explanatory variables while improving upon the fit of the existing model. Beyond mosquito infection rates and climatic factors, efforts to acquire additional covariates only slightly improve model predictive performance. Conclusions: These results suggest human WNV illness in the Chicago area may be associated with fewer, but increasingly critical, key variables at finer scales. Given limited resources, this study suggests a large variation in the significance to model performance, and provides guidance in covariate selection for optimal WNV human illness modeling.

scholarly journals 338. Analysis of Etiologies of Aseptic Meningitis within a Nation-Wide Hospital Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S239-S239
Author(s):  
Arunmozhi S Aravagiri ◽  
Scott Kubomoto ◽  
Ayutyanont Napatkamon ◽  
Sarah Wilson ◽  
Sudhakar Mallela
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Aseptic Meningitis ◽  
Epidemiologic Study ◽  
The United States ◽  
Positive Test ◽  
Diagnostic Tools ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Varicella Zoster ◽  
The Us

Abstract Background Aseptic meningitis can be caused by an array of microorganisms, both bacterial and non-bacterial, as well as non-infectious conditions. Some etiologies of aseptic meningitis require treatment with antibiotics, antiviral, antifungals, anti-parasitic agents, immunosuppressants, and or chemotherapy. There are limited diagnostic tools for diagnosing certain types of aseptic meningitis, therefore knowing the differential causes of aseptic meningitis, and their relative percentages may assist in diagnosis. Review of the literature reveals that there are no recent studies of etiologies of aseptic meningitis in the United States (US). This is an epidemiologic study to delineate etiologies of aseptic meningitis in a large database of 185 HCA hospitals across the US. Methods Data was collected from January 2016 to December 2019 on all patients diagnosed with meningitis. CSF PCR studies, and CSF antibody tests were then selected for inclusion. Results Total number of encounters were 3,149 hospitalizations. Total number of individual labs analyzed was 10,613, and of these 262 etiologies were identified. 23.6% (62) of cases were due to enterovirus, 18.7% (49) due to HSV-2, 14.5% (38) due to West Nile virus, 13.7% (36) due to Varicella zoster (VZV), 10.5% (27) due to Cryptococcus. Additionally, we analyzed the rate of positive test results by region. Nationally, 9.7% of tests ordered for enterovirus were positive. In contrast, 0.5% of tests ordered for HSV 1 were positive. The southeastern United States had the highest rate of positive tests for HSV 2 (7% of tests ordered for HSV 2 were positive). The central United States had the highest rate of positive test for West Nile virus (11% of tests ordered for West Nile were positive). The northeastern region and the highest rate of positive tests for varicella zoster (18%). Table 1: Percentage of positive CSF tests (positive tests/tests ordered) Table 2: Lists the number of HIV patients and transplant patients that had positive CSF PCR/serologies Figure 1: Percentage of positive CSF tests in each region Conclusion Approximately 40% of aseptic meningitis population had treatable etiologies. A third of the Cryptococcus meningitis population had HIV. Furthermore, enteroviruses had the majority of cases within the US, which are similar to studies done in other parts of the world. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals Meteorological Conditions Associated with Increased Incidence of West Nile Virus Disease in the United States, 2004–2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 92 (5) ◽  
pp. 1013-1022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Micah B. Hahn ◽  
Roger S. Nasci ◽  
Mark J. Delorey ◽  
Rebecca J. Eisen ◽  
Andrew J. Monaghan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
The United States ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
West Nile

scholarly journals Integrating Spatiotemporal Epidemiology, Eco-Phylogenetics, and Distributional Ecology to Assess West Nile Disease Risk in Horses

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1811
Author(s):  
John M. Humphreys ◽  
Angela M. Pelzel-McCluskey ◽  
Lee W. Cohnstaedt ◽  
Bethany L. McGregor ◽  
Kathryn A. Hanley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Community Dynamics ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
The United States ◽  
Host Community ◽  
Avian Host ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Phylogenetic Structure ◽  
Vaccination Programs

Mosquito-borne West Nile virus (WNV) is the causative agent of West Nile disease in humans, horses, and some bird species. Since the initial introduction of WNV to the United States (US), approximately 30,000 horses have been impacted by West Nile neurologic disease and hundreds of additional horses are infected each year. Research describing the drivers of West Nile disease in horses is greatly needed to better anticipate the spatial and temporal extent of disease risk, improve disease surveillance, and alleviate future economic impacts to the equine industry and private horse owners. To help meet this need, we integrated techniques from spatiotemporal epidemiology, eco-phylogenetics, and distributional ecology to assess West Nile disease risk in horses throughout the contiguous US. Our integrated approach considered horse abundance and virus exposure, vector and host distributions, and a variety of extrinsic climatic, socio-economic, and environmental risk factors. Birds are WNV reservoir hosts, and therefore we quantified avian host community dynamics across the continental US to show intra-annual variability in host phylogenetic structure and demonstrate host phylodiversity as a mechanism for virus amplification in time and virus dilution in space. We identified drought as a potential amplifier of virus transmission and demonstrated the importance of accounting for spatial non-stationarity when quantifying interaction between disease risk and meteorological influences such as temperature and precipitation. Our results delineated the timing and location of several areas at high risk of West Nile disease and can be used to prioritize vaccination programs and optimize virus surveillance and monitoring.

Improving the prediction of arbovirus outbreaks: A comparison of climate-driven models for West Nile virus in an endemic region of the United States

Acta Tropica ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 185 ◽  
pp. 242-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin K. Davis ◽  
Geoffrey P. Vincent ◽  
Michael B. Hildreth ◽  
Lon Kightlinger ◽  
Christopher Carlson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
The United States ◽  
Endemic Region ◽  
West Nile

Using Volunteered Geographic Information to Assess the Spatial Distribution of West Nile Virus in Detroit, Michigan

2013 ◽  
pp. 1170-1182
Author(s):  
Kevin P. McKnight ◽  
Joseph P. Messina ◽  
Ashton M. Shortridge ◽  
Meghan D. Burns ◽  
Bruce W. Pigozzi
Keyword(s):  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Clustering Algorithms ◽  
The United States ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Hotspot Detection ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Dead Bird ◽  
Global And Local

West Nile Virus is a vector-borne flavivirus that affects mainly birds, horses, and humans. The disease emerged in the United States in 1999 and by 2001 had reached Michigan. In clinical human cases, the most common symptoms are fever, weakness, nausea, headache, and changes in mental state. The crow is the most common wildlife host in the life cycle of the virus. The state of Michigan, through the Michigan Department of Community Health, collected the spatial locations of over 8,000 dead birds (Corvidae), statewide, during 2002. The large number of samples made spatial and temporal hotspot detection possible. However, the volunteer reporting method produced a dataset with a direct correlation between the numbers and locations of the dead birds and human population density and accurately identifying hotspots remains a challenge. Geographic variation in dead bird intensity was modeled using both global and local spatial clustering algorithms. Statistical models identified overall spatial structure and local clustering. Identification of hotspots was confounded by limited information about the collection procedures, data availability and quality, and the limitations of each method.

scholarly journals Epidemiological surveillance of West Nile virus in the world and Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. e164335
Author(s):  
Erica Azevedo Costa ◽  
José Joffre Martins Bayeux ◽  
Aila Solimar Gonçalves Silva ◽  
Guilherme Alves De Queiroz ◽  
Beatriz Senra Álvares da Silva Santos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Serological Screening ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

West Nile virus (WNV) is a neurovirulent mosquito-borne Flavivirus that is maintained in nature by a zoonotic transmissioncycle between avian hosts and ornithophilic mosquito vectors, mostly from the Culex genus. Until the 1990s, WNV wasconsidered to be an old-world arbovirus, but in 1999, WNV emerged in the United States (US) and spread rapidly, becoming amajor threat to public health. WNV adapted to the transmission cycle involving American mosquitoes and birds and reachedCentral and South America in subsequent years. In 2003, the National West Nile Fever Surveillance System was created in Brazilbased on serological screening of animals and sentinel vectors, as recommended by the Pan American Health Organization(PAHO) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Since 2008, serological evidence of WNV infection in Brazilian horseshas been reported, and the circulation of WNV has been monitored through the regular serological screening of sentinel horsesand reporting of encephalomyelitis cases. Horses are highly susceptible to WNV infection, and outbreaks of neurologicaldisease among horses often precede human cases. In this regard, equine surveillance has been essential in providing earlywarning to public and animal health authorities in several countries, including Brazil. This demonstrates the need for animaland public health intervention programs to allocate resources to make veterinarians aware of the role they can play in thehuman surveillance processes by monitoring horses. This review discusses the importance of equine surveillance and the gapthat veterinarians can fill on the front line in human surveillance, in Brazil and worldwide, in the context of “One Health”

scholarly journals A 15 Year Evaluation of West Nile Virus in Wisconsin: Effects on Wildlife and Human Health

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1767
Author(s):  
Johnny A. Uelmen ◽  
Charles Brokopp ◽  
Jonathan Patz
Keyword(s):  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Mammalian Species ◽  
Keystone Species ◽  
The United States ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Rural Regions ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Statewide Assessment

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most important and widespread mosquito-borne virus in the United States (U.S.). WNV has the ability to spread rapidly and effectively, infecting more than 320 bird and mammalian species. An examination of environmental conditions and the health of keystone species may help predict the susceptibility of various habitats to WNV and reveal key risk factors, annual trends, and vulnerable regions. Since 2002, WNV outbreaks in Wisconsin varied by species, place, and time, significantly affected by unique climatic, environmental, and geographical factors. During a 15 year period, WNV was detected in 71 of 72 counties, resulting in 239 human and 1397 wildlife cases. Controlling for population and sampling efforts in Wisconsin, rates of WNV are highest in the western and northwestern rural regions of the state. WNV incidence rates were highest in counties with low human population densities, predominantly wetland, and at elevations greater than 1000 feet. Resources for surveillance, prevention, and detection of WNV were lowest in rural counties, likely resulting in underestimation of cases. Overall, increasing mean temperature and decreasing precipitation showed positive influence on WNV transmission in Wisconsin. This study incorporates the first statewide assessment of WNV in Wisconsin.

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