The role and limitations of scoring systems

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Wunsch ◽  
Andrew A. Kramer
Keyword(s):  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Molecular Level ◽  
Severity Of Illness ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Clinical Assessments ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Individual Care ◽  
Severity Scores

Scoring systems for critically-ill patients provide a measure of the severity of illness of patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). They are primarily based on patient characteristics, physiological derangement, and/or clinical assessments. Severity scores themselves allow for risk-adjusting outcomes, but they can also be used to provide a prediction of the overall risk of death, length of stay, or other outcome for critically ill patients. This allows for comparison of outcomes between different cohorts of patients or between observed and predicted ICU performance. There are a number of general ICU scoring systems that are in use. All scoring systems have limitations. Future scoring systems may include prediction of longer-term outcomes, and assimilation of granular data temporally and at the molecular level that could result in more personalized severity scores to help guide individual care decisions.

scholarly journals Increased insulin resistance in intensive care: longitudinal retrospective analysis of glycaemic control patients in a New Zealand ICU

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 204201882110121
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Knopp ◽  
J. Geoffrey Chase ◽  
Geoffrey M. Shaw
Keyword(s):  
Insulin Resistance ◽  
Insulin Sensitivity ◽  
Glycaemic Control ◽  
Diagnostic Category ◽  
Severity Of Illness ◽  
Insulin Metabolism ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Severity Scores ◽  
High Insulin

Background: Critical care populations experience demographic shifts in response to trends in population and healthcare, with increasing severity and/or complexity of illness a common observation worldwide. Inflammation in critical illness impacts glucose–insulin metabolism, and hyperglycaemia is associated with mortality and morbidity. This study examines longitudinal trends in insulin sensitivity across almost a decade of glycaemic control in a single unit. Methods: A clinically validated model of glucose–insulin dynamics is used to assess hour–hour insulin sensitivity over the first 72 h of insulin therapy. Insulin sensitivity and its hour–hour percent variability are examined over 8 calendar years alongside severity scores and diagnostics. Results: Insulin sensitivity was found to decrease by 50–55% from 2011 to 2015, and remain low from 2015 to 2018, with no concomitant trends in age, severity scores or risk of death, or diagnostic category. Insulin sensitivity variability was found to remain largely unchanged year to year and was clinically equivalent (95% confidence interval) at the median and interquartile range. Insulin resistance was associated with greater incidence of high insulin doses in the effect saturation range (6–8 U/h), with the 75th percentile of hourly insulin doses rising from 4–4.5 U/h in 2011–2014 to 6 U/h in 2015–2018. Conclusions: Increasing insulin resistance was observed alongside no change in insulin sensitivity variability, implying greater insulin needs but equivalent (variability) challenge to glycaemic control. Increasing insulin resistance may imply greater inflammation and severity of illness not captured by existing severity scores. Insulin resistance reduces glucose tolerance, and can cause greater incidence of insulin saturation and resultant hyperglycaemia. Overall, these results have significant clinical implications for glycaemic control and nutrition management.

scholarly journals Severe liver dysfunction complicating course of COVID-19 in the critically ill: multifactorial cause or direct viral effect?

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Roedl ◽  
Dominik Jarczak ◽  
Andreas Drolz ◽  
Dominic Wichmann ◽  
Olaf Boenisch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critically Ill ◽  
Liver Dysfunction ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Severity Of Illness ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Severe Liver ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
Severe Liver Dysfunction ◽  
Global Threat ◽  
The University

Abstract Background SARS-CoV-2 caused a pandemic and global threat for human health. Presence of liver injury was commonly reported in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, reports on severe liver dysfunction (SLD) in critically ill with COVID-19 are lacking. We evaluated the occurrence, clinical characteristics and outcome of SLD in critically ill patients with COVID-19. Methods Clinical course and laboratory was analyzed from all patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICU of the university hospital. SLD was defined as: bilirubin ≥ 2 mg/dl or elevation of aminotransferase levels (> 20-fold ULN). Results 72 critically ill patients were identified, 22 (31%) patients developed SLD. Presenting characteristics including age, gender, comorbidities as well as clinical presentation regarding COVID-19 overlapped substantially in both groups. Patients with SLD had more severe respiratory failure (paO2/FiO2: 82 (58–114) vs. 117 (83–155); p < 0.05). Thus, required more frequently mechanical ventilation (95% vs. 64%; p < 0.01), rescue therapies (ECMO) (27% vs. 12%; p = 0.106), vasopressor (95% vs. 72%; p < 0.05) and renal replacement therapy (86% vs. 30%; p < 0.001). Severity of illness was significantly higher (SAPS II: 48 (39–52) vs. 40 (32–45); p < 0.01). Patients with SLD and without presented viremic during ICU stay in 68% and 34%, respectively (p = 0.002). Occurrence of SLD was independently associated with presence of viremia [OR 6.359; 95% CI 1.336–30.253; p < 0.05] and severity of illness (SAPS II) [OR 1.078; 95% CI 1.004–1.157; p < 0.05]. Mortality was high in patients with SLD compared to other patients (68% vs. 16%, p < 0.001). After adjustment for confounders, SLD was independently associated with mortality [HR3.347; 95% CI 1.401–7.999; p < 0.01]. Conclusion One-third of critically ill patients with COVID-19 suffer from SLD, which is associated with high mortality. Occurrence of viremia and severity of illness seem to contribute to occurrence of SLD and underline the multifactorial cause.

scholarly journals Regulation and Prognostic Relevance of Symmetric Dimethylarginine Serum Concentrations in Critical Illness and Sepsis

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Koch ◽  
Ralf Weiskirchen ◽  
Jan Bruensing ◽  
Hanna Dückers ◽  
Lukas Buendgens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Illness ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Multiorgan Failure ◽  
Microvascular Dysfunction ◽  
Serum Levels ◽  
Serum Concentrations ◽  
Symmetric Dimethylarginine ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Severity Scores

In systemic inflammation and sepsis, endothelial activation and microvascular dysfunction are characteristic features that promote multiorgan failure. As symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA) impacts vascular tension and integrity via modulating nitric oxide (NO) pathways, we investigated circulating SDMA in critical illness and sepsis. 247 critically ill patients (160 with sepsis, 87 without sepsis) were studied prospectively upon admission to the medical intensive care unit (ICU) and on day 7, in comparison to 84 healthy controls. SDMA serum levels were significantly elevated in critically ill patients at admission to ICU compared to controls and remained stably elevated during the first week of ICU treatment. The highest SDMA levels were found in patients with sepsis. SDMA levels closely correlated with disease severity scores, biomarkers of inflammation, and organ failure (renal, hepatic, and circulatory). We identified SDMA serum concentrations at admission as an independent prognostic biomarker in critically ill patients not only for short-term mortality at the ICU but also for unfavourable long-term survival. Thus, the significant increase of circulating SDMA in critically ill patients indicates a potential pathogenic involvement in endothelial dysfunction during sepsis and may be useful for mortality risk stratification at the ICU.

Severity of Illness Scoring Systems in Critical Care

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark T. Keegan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Critical Care ◽  
Organ Failure ◽  
Severity Of Illness ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
The United States ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Fourth Generation ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Predicted Risk

Critical care consumes about 4% of national health expenditure and 0.65% of United States gross domestic product. There are approximately 94,000 critical care beds in the United States, and provision of critical care services costs approximately $80 billion per year. The enormous costs and the heterogeneity of critical care have led to scrutiny of patient outcomes and cost-effectiveness by a variety of governmental and nongovernmental organizations; furthermore, individual critical care practitioners and their hospitals should evaluate the care delivered. This review discusses scoring systems in medicine, critical care systems, development, validation, performance, and customization of the models, adult intensive care unit (ICU) prognostic models, model use, limitations, prognostic models in trauma care, perioperative scoring systems, assessment of organ failure, severity of illness and organ dysfunction scoring in children, and future directions. Figures show the distribution of predicted risk of death using two different prediction models among a population of patients who ultimately are observed to either live or die, a comparison of  “expected” deaths (based on the expectation that the predicted probability from the model is correct) to observed deaths within each of the 10 deciles of predicted risk, the importance of disease in the risk of death equation,  and the revised Rapaport-Teres graph for ICUs in the Project IMPACT validation set. Tables list three main ICU prognostic models, study characteristics and performance of the fourth-generation prognostic models, variables included in the fourth-generation prognostic models, potential uses of adult ICU prognostic models, variables included in the calculation of the organ failure scores, and sequential organ failure assessment. This review contains 4 highly rendered figures, 6 tables, and 293 references

scholarly journals The mortality of critically ill patients was not associated with inter-hospital transfer due to a shortage of ICU beds - a single-centre retrospective analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Oras ◽  
Marko Strube ◽  
Christian Rylander
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Saps 3 ◽  
Propensity Score Model ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Tertiary Centre ◽  
Hospital Transfer ◽  
Secondary Analyses

Abstract Background Patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) are increasingly being transferred between ICUs due to a shortage of ICU beds, although this practice is potentially harmful. However, in tertiary units, the transfer of patients who are not in need of highly specialized care is often necessary. The aim of this study was to assess the association between a 90-day mortality and inter-hospital transfer due to a shortage of ICU beds in a tertiary centre. Methods Data were retrieved from the local ICU database from December 2011 to September 2019. The primary analysis was a risk-adjusted logistic regression model. Secondary analyses comprised case/control (transfer/non-transfer) matching. Results A total of 573 patients were transferred due to a shortage of ICU beds, and 8106 patients were not transferred. Crude 90-day mortality was higher in patients transferred due to a shortage of beds (189 patients (33%) vs 2188 patients (27%), p = 0.002). In the primary, risk-adjusted analysis, the risk of death at 90 days was similar between the groups (odds ratio 0.923, 95% confidence interval 0.75–1.14, p = 0.461). In the secondary analyses, a 90-day mortality was similar in transferred and non-transferred patients matched according to SAPS 3-score, age, days in the ICU and ICU diagnosis (p = 0.407); SOFA score on the day of discharge, ICU diagnosis and age (p = 0.634); or in a propensity score model (p = 0.229). Conclusion Mortality at 90 days in critically ill patients treated in a tertiary centre was not affected by transfer to another intensive care units due to a shortage of beds. We found this conclusion to be valid under the assumption that patients are carefully selected and that the transports are safely performed.

scholarly journals Biomarker-assisted identification of sepsis-related acute liver impairment: a frequent and deadly condition in critically ill patients

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (9) ◽  
pp. 1422-1431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens-Ulrik Stæhr Jensen ◽  
Lars Peters ◽  
Theis S. Itenov ◽  
Morten Bestle ◽  
Katrin M. Thormar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Prognostic Impact ◽  
Surgical Intensive Care ◽  
Positive Interaction ◽  
Liver Impairment ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Co Morbidity ◽  
All Cause Mortality

Abstract Background The prognostic impact of mild/moderate liver impairment among critically ill patients is not known. We aimed to determine whether acute liver impairment, as measured by several biomarkers, (i) is frequent, (ii) influences prognosis and (iii) to determine whether such an effect is specific for infected critically ill patients. Methods A biomarker and clinical cohort study based on a randomized controlled trial. All-cause mortality was the primary endpoint. Biomarkers hyaluronic acid (HA), bilirubin, albumin, alkaline phosphatase and the international normalized ratio (INR) were determined. Multivariable statistics were applied to estimate risk increase according to liver biomarker increase at baseline and the model was adjusted for age, APACHE II, severe sepsis/septic shock vs. milder infection, chronic alcohol abuse Charlson’s co-morbidity index, cancer disease, surgical or medical patient, body mass index, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, mechanical ventilation and the other biomarkers. Time-to-event graphs were used. The patients were critically ill patients (n = 1096) from nine mixed medical/surgical intensive care units without known hepatobiliary disease. Results HA levels differed between infected patients (median 210.8 ng/mL [IQR: 93.2–556.6]) vs. the non-infected (median 56.8 ng/mL [IQR: 31.9–116.8], p < 0.001). Serum HA quartiles 2, 3 and 4 were independent predictors of 90-day all-cause mortality for the entire population (infected and non-infected). However, the signal was driven by the infected patients (positive interaction test, no signal in non-infected patients). Among infected patients, HA quartiles corresponded directly to the 90-day risk of dying: 1st quartile: 57/192 = 29.7%, 2nd quartile: 84/194 = 43.3%, 3rd quartile: 90/193 = 46.6%, 4th quartile: 101/192 = 52.3 %, p for trend: <0.0001. This finding was confirmed in adjusted analyses: hazard ratio vs. 1st quartile: 2nd quartile: 1.3 [0.9–1.8], p = 0.14, 3rd quartile: 1.5 [1.1–2.2], p = 0.02, 4th quartile: 1.9 [1.3–2.6], p < 0.0001). High bilirubin was also an independent predictor of mortality. Conclusions Among infected critically ill patients, subtle liver impairment, (elevated HA and bilirubin), was associated with a progressive and highly increased risk of death for the patient; this was robust to adjustment for other predictors of mortality. HA can identify patients at high risk.

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