scholarly journals SO081LITHIUM EXPOSURE AND OCCURENCE OF CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE IN THE IRISH HEALTH SYSTEM: A COHORT STUDY

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Behan ◽  
Leonard Browne ◽  
Stack Austin
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Health System ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Kidney Function ◽  
Ckd Progression ◽  
Duration Of Treatment

Abstract Background and Aims Lithium is implicated as a causative factor in the development and progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Few studies have assessed the independent impact of plasma levels and duration of lithium therapy on CKD progression. We examined the influence of lithium on CKD progression in the Irish health system. Method We utilised data from the Irish Kidney Disease Surveillance System (IKDSS) to explore associations of lithium levels and duration of exposure with kidney function in a regional cohort. A retrospective cohort study was conducted between 1999 to 2014 from the Midwest Region. All adult patients with lithium levels were identified and followed longitudinally. Kidney function was assessed at baseline and longitudinally using serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the CKD-EPI. Patients with < 2 lithium values, missing data on creatinine were excluded. The index date was the date of the first lithium blood test. Toxicity from lithium was defined as levels >1.2mmol/L as per NICE guidelines while duration of treatment was calculated based on patient –years of exposure as determined by positive blood lithium levels. Relationships between baseline kidney function, lithium levels, duration of exposure and each patients most recent eGFR value on follow up were assessed using multiple linear regression Results We identified 1,978 patients exposed to lithium from 1999-2014, mean age was 47.4 (15.6), 45.1% were men, eGFR [median (IQR)] at baseline was 84.4 (32.1) ml/min1.73m and the median duration of exposure was 3.0 years (IQR=4 years). Frequency of lithium testing increased from 1.77 in 1999 to 2.66 in 2014. In multiple linear regression, the final eGFR on follow-up was significantly lower in older patients (-0.48 ml/min/1.73m per year increase in age), P<0.001; in patients with elevated baseline lithium levels (-2.18 ml/min1.73m lower per unit increase), P<0.05, with long duration of exposure (-1.42 ml/min/1.73m lower for each year on lithium), P<0.001, and for patients with low GFR at baseline (P<0.001). Together these variables explained 58% of the variation in the final model. Conclusion Both the magnitude of and the duration of lithium exposure are both independently associated with CKD progression among lithium users in the Irish health system. Higher baseline lithium values had a more deleterious impact on kidney function. Continued efforts should be expended in minimising the risks of lithium induced nephrotoxicity through switching to alternatives and dose reduction when over possible. Funding This study is funded by the Health Research Board and the Midwest Research and Education Foundation (MKid).

Smoking, Smoking Cessation, and Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease: Results From KNOW-CKD Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangmi Lee ◽  
Shinchan Kang ◽  
Young Su Joo ◽  
Changhyun Lee ◽  
Ki Heon Nam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Function ◽  
Primary Outcome ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Ckd Progression ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Never Smokers

Abstract Introduction In patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), studies investigating the association between smoking and deterioration of kidney function are scarce. Aims and Methods We analyzed data for 1,951 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥15 mL/min/1.73 m2 enrolled in the KoreaN cohort study for Outcome in patients With Chronic Kidney Disease (KNOW-CKD) from 2011 to 2016. Patients were categorized by smoking load. Primary outcome was a composite of a ≥50% reduction in eGFR, initiation of dialysis, or kidney transplantation. Results There were 967 never-smokers and 369, 276, and 339 smokers who smoked <15, 15 to 29, ≥30 pack-years, respectively. During a mean follow-up of 3.0 years, the incidence rates (95% confidence interval [CI]) of the primary outcome were 54.3 (46.4–63.5), 46.9 (35.9–61.4), 69.2 (52.9–90.6), and 76.3 (60.7–96.0) events per 1,000 person-yr in never-, <15, 15 to 29, and ≥30 pack-year smokers. In cause-specific hazard model after adjustment of confounding factors, smokers were associated with 1.09 (0.73–1.63), 1.48 (1.00–2.18), and 1.94 (1.35–2.77) fold increased risk (95% CI) of primary outcome in <15, 15–29, and ≥30 pack-year smokers compared with never-smokers. The association of longer smoking duration with higher risk of CKD progression was evident particularly in patients with eGFR < 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 and proteinuria ≥ 1.0 g/g. In contrast, the risk of adverse kidney outcome decreased with longer smoking-free periods among former-smokers. Conclusions These findings suggest potentially harmful effects of the degree of exposure to smoking on the progression of CKD. Implications Among patients with CKD, there has been lack of studies on the association between smoking and CKD progression and studies to date have yielded conflicting results. In this prospective cohort study involving Korean CKD patients, smoking was associated with significantly higher risk of worsening kidney function. Furthermore, the risk of adverse kidney outcome was incrementally higher as smoking pack-years were higher. As the duration of smoking cessation increased, the hazard ratios for adverse kidney outcome were attenuated, suggesting that quitting smoking may be a modifiable factor to delay CKD progression.

scholarly journals Associations between urinary cysteine-rich protein 61 excretion and kidney function decline in outpatients with chronic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study in Taiwan

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. e051165
Author(s):  
Chun-Fu Lai ◽  
Jian-Jhong Wang ◽  
Ya-Chun Tu ◽  
Chia-Yu Hsu ◽  
Hon-Yen Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Function ◽  
Creatinine Ratio ◽  
Discriminative Performance ◽  
Cysteine Rich Protein ◽  
Kidney Function Decline ◽  
Egfr Decline

ObjectivesTo examine whether urinary excretion of cysteine-rich protein 61 (Cyr61), an acknowledged proinflammatory factor in kidney pathologies, increases in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with subsequent rapid kidney function decline.DesignAn observational cohort study.SettingIn the nephrology outpatient clinics of a tertiary hospital in Taiwan.ParticipantsWe enrolled 138 adult CKD outpatients (n=12, 32, 18, 18, 29 and 29 in stages 1, 2, 3a, 3b, 4 and 5 CKD, respectively) between February and October 2014 and followed them for 1 year. Their mean age was 60.46±13.16 years, and 51 (37%) of them were women.Primary outcome measuresUrinary Cyr61 levels were measured by ELISA. Rapid kidney function decline was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline rate ≥ 4 mL/min/1.73 m2/year or developing end-stage renal disease during subsequent 3-month or 1-year follow-up period. Models were adjusted for demographic and clinical variables.ResultsThe urine Cyr61-to-creatinine ratio (UCyr61CR) increased significantly in patients with stage 4 or 5 CKD. Multivariable linear regression analysis showed that log(UCyr61CR) was positively correlated with log(urine protein-to-creatinine ratio) (p<0.001) but negatively correlated with baseline eGFR (p<0.001) and hypertension (p=0.007). Complete serum creatinine data during the follow-up were available for 112 patients (81.2%). Among them, multivariable logistic regression identified log(UCyr61CR) was independently associated with rapid kidney function decline (adjusted OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.27 to 4.15) during the subsequent 3 months. UCyr61CR improved the discriminative performance of clinical models to predict 3-month rapid kidney function decline. In contrast, log(UCyr61CR) was not associated with rapid eGFR decline during the entire 1-year follow-up.ConclusionsElevated urinary Cyr61 excretion is associated with rapid short-term kidney function deterioration in patients with CKD. Measuring urinary Cyr61 excretion is clinically valuable for monitoring disease trajectory and may guide treatment planning.

scholarly journals Chronic kidney disease progression among patients with type 2 diabetes identified in US administrative claims: a population cohort study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csaba P Kovesdy ◽  
Danielle Isaman ◽  
Natalia Petruski-Ivleva ◽  
Linda Fried ◽  
Michael Blankenburg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Disease Progression ◽  
Administrative Claims ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Ckd Stage

Abstract Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD), one of the most common complications of type 2 diabetes (T2D), is associated with poor health outcomes and high healthcare expenditures. As the CKD population increases, a better understanding of the prevalence and progression of CKD is critical. However, few contemporary studies have explored the progression of CKD relative to its onset in T2D patients using established markers derived from real-world care settings. Methods This retrospective, population-based cohort study assessed CKD progression among adults with T2D and with newly recognized CKD identified from US administrative claims data between 1 January 2008 and 30 September 2018. Included were patients with T2D and laboratory evidence of CKD as indicated by the established estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin:creatinine ratio (UACR) criteria. Disease progression was described as transitions across the eGFR- and UACR-based stages. Results A total of 65 731 and 23 035 patients with T2D contributed to the analysis of eGFR- and UACR-based CKD stage progression, respectively. CKD worsening was observed in approximately 10–17% of patients over a median follow-up of 2 years. Approximately one-third of patients experienced an increase in eGFR values or a decrease in UACR values during follow-up. Conclusions A relatively high proportion of patients were observed with disease progression over a short period of time, highlighting the need for better identification of patients at risk of rapidly progressive CKD. Future studies are needed to determine the clinical characteristics of these patients to inform earlier diagnostic and therapeutic interventions aimed at slowing disease progression.

scholarly journals Dietary Micronutrients and Risk of Chronic Kidney Disease: A Cohort Study with 12 Year Follow-Up

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1517
Author(s):  
Juyeon Lee ◽  
Kook-Hwan Oh ◽  
Sue-Kyung Park
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Epidemiologic Study ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Dietary Guidelines ◽  
Dietary Intakes ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Ckd Stage

We investigated the association between dietary micronutrient intakes and the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the Ansan-Ansung study of the Korean Genome and Epidemiologic Study (KoGES), a population-based prospective cohort study. Of 9079 cohort participants with a baseline estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and a urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) <300 mg/g and who were not diagnosed with CKD, we ascertained 1392 new CKD cases over 12 year follow-up periods. The risk of CKD according to dietary micronutrient intakes was presented using hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) in a full multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for multiple micronutrients and important clinico-epidemiological risk factors. Low dietary intakes of phosphorus (<400 mg/day), vitamin B2 (<0.7 mg/day) and high dietary intake of vitamin B6 (≥1.6 mg/day) and C (≥100 mg/day) were associated with an increased risk of CKD stage 3B and over, compared with the intake at recommended levels (HR = 6.78 [95%CI = 2.18–21.11]; HR = 2.90 [95%CI = 1.01–8.33]; HR = 2.71 [95%CI = 1.26–5.81]; HR = 1.83 [95%CI = 1.00–3.33], respectively). In the restricted population, excluding new CKD cases defined within 2 years, an additional association with low folate levels (<100 µg/day) in higher risk of CKD stage 3B and over was observed (HR = 6.72 [95%CI = 1.40–32.16]). None of the micronutrients showed a significant association with the risk of developing CKD stage 3A. Adequate intake of micronutrients may lower the risk of CKD stage 3B and over, suggesting that dietary guidelines are needed in the general population to prevent CKD.

scholarly journals Analysis of blood gas beyond bicarbonate in outpatients with stage 3–5 chronic kidney disease

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilter Bozaci ◽  
Ali Nazmi Can Doğan ◽  
Merve Aktar ◽  
Alev Mahşer ◽  
Gizem Yıldırım ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Metabolic Acidosis ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Mixed Type ◽  
Base Excess ◽  
Blood Gas ◽  
Ckd Progression ◽  
Group 1

AbstractObjectivesMetabolic acidosis is a common disorder seen in course of chronic kidney disease (CKD). In this study, we aimed to investigate the association of Base excess (BE), Anion gap (AG) and Delta Ratio with progression of CKD, renal replacement therapy (RRT) requirement and mortality in patients with stage 3–5 CKD.MethodsA total of 212 patients with stage 3–5 CKD were included in this study. Patients were divided into two groups according to the baseline BE level. Patients were also grouped according to the delta ratio such as non- AG, High AG and mixed type.ResultsMean BE level was significantly lower (−4.7 ± 4.0 vs. −3.3 ± 4.3; p=0.02) in patients with CKD progression. The patients in group 1 (n: 130) (Be<−2.5) revealed more CKD progression (%53 vs. %32; p=0.002), and RRT requirement (%35 vs. %15; p=0.001). Baseline BE <−2.5 (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.16 to 0.91; p<0.05) and baseline GFR (odds ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90 to 0.97; p<0.001) were independently related to RRT requirement. Delta BE was independently associated with mortality (odds ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.85–0.96; p<0.01).ConclusionsLow BE levels were associated with CKD progression and RRT requirement. BE change is associated with mortality during the follow-up of those patients.

scholarly journals Non-linear progression of chronic kidney disease and associated factors in hypertensive patients: a 4-year cohort study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciana Saraiva da Silva ◽  
Tiago Ricardo Moreira ◽  
Rodrigo Gomes da Silva ◽  
Rosângela Minardi Mitre Cotta
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Associated Factors ◽  
Multivariate Analyses ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Ckd Progression ◽  
Hypertensive Patients ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Non Linear

Abstract Background Recent studies suggest that the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is not linear, but we do not have clear evidence on this issue, especially in hypertensive patients. We sought to evaluate the progression of CKD and associated factors over four years in a cohort of hypertensive patients. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study during the years 2012 and 2016, with hypertensive patients diagnosed with CKD (n = 113). The progression of CKD was assessed through the evolution of the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and the change in the stage of CKD between 2012 and 2016. Sociodemographic, economic, lifestyle, clinical, anthropometric, and biochemical variables were evaluated. The strength of the association between CKD progression and explanatory variables was assessed by odds ratio (OR) and their respective 95% confidence intervals using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Results Regarding progression, 78.1% of the CKD patients did not progress over four years. When assessing the CKD trajectory (2012–2016) through the evolution of GFR, there was a mean reduction of 1.3 mL/min/1.73m² in four years. In the group that progressed, there was a reduction of 13 mL/min/1.73m², while in the group that did not progress, there was an increase of 2 mL/min/1.73m². In the multivariate analyses, age (p = 0.047), diabetes mellitus (DM) (p = 0.042), and urea (p = 0.050) were independently associated with CKD progression. Conclusions The findings of the present study showed a non-linear progression of CKD over the four years, contrary to what is traditionally expected. Age, DM and urea were independently associated with CKD progression.

scholarly journals HMOX1 and Acute Kidney Injury in Sickle Cell Anemia

Blood ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 130 (Suppl_1) ◽  
pp. 686-686
Author(s):  
Santosh L. Saraf ◽  
Maya Viner ◽  
Ariel Rischall ◽  
Binal Shah ◽  
Xu Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Sickle Cell ◽  
Sickle Cell Anemia ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Ckd Progression ◽  
Kdigo Guidelines

Abstract Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with tubulointerstitial fibrosis and nephron loss and may lead to an increased risk for subsequently developing chronic kidney disease (CKD). In adults with sickle cell anemia (SCA), high rates of CKD have been consistently observed, although the incidence and risk factors for AKI are less clear. We evaluated the incidence of AKI, defined according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines as a rise in serum creatinine by ≥0.3mg/dL within 48 hours or ≥1.5 times baseline within seven days, in 158 of 299 adult SCA patients enrolled in a longitudinal cohort from the University of Illinois at Chicago. These patients were selected based on the availability of genotyping for α-thalassemia, BCL11A rs1427407, APOL1 G1/G2, and the HMOX1 rs743811 and GT-repeat variants. Median values and interquartile range (IQR) are provided. With a median follow up time of 66 months (IQR, 51-74 months), 137 AKI events were observed in 63 (40%) SCA patients. AKI was most commonly observed in the following settings: acute chest syndrome (25%), an uncomplicated vaso-occlusive crisis (VOC)(24%), a VOC with pre-renal azotemia determined by a fractional excretion of sodium &lt;1% or BUN-to-creatinine ratio &gt;20:1 (14%), or a VOC with increased hemolysis, defined as an increase in serum LDH or indirect bilirubin level &gt;1.5 times over the baseline value at the time of enrollment (12%). Compared to individuals who did not develop AKI, SCA adults who developed an AKI event were older (AKI: median and IQR age of 35 (26-46) years, no AKI: 28 (23 - 26) years; P=0.01) and had a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (AKI: median and IQR eGFR of 123 (88-150) mL/min/1.73m2, no AKI: 141 (118-154) mL/min/1.73m2; P=0.02) by the Kruskal-Wallis test at the time of enrollment. We evaluated the association of a panel of candidate gene variants with the risk of developing an AKI event. These included loci related to the degree of hemolysis (α-thalassemia, BCL11A rs1427407), to chronic kidney disease (APOL1 G1/G2 risk variants), and to heme metabolism (HMOX1) . Using a logistic regression model that adjusted for age and eGFR at the time of enrollment, the risk of an AKI event was associated with older age (10-year OR 2.6, 95%CI 1.4-4.8, P=0.002), HMOX1 rs743811 (OR 3.1, 95%CI 1.1-8.7, P=0.03), and long HMOX1 GT-repeats, defined as &gt;25 repeats (OR 2.5, 95%CI 1.01-6.1, P=0.04). Next, we assessed whether AKI is associated with a more rapid decline in eGFR and with CKD progression, defined as a 50% reduction in eGFR, on longitudinal follow up. Using a mixed effects model that adjusted for age and eGFR at the time of enrollment, the rate of eGFR decline was significantly greater in those with an AKI event (β = -0.51) vs. no AKI event (β = -0.16) (P=0.03). With a median follow up time of 66 months (IQR, 51-74 months), CKD progression was observed in 21% (13/61) of SCA patients with an AKI event versus 9% (8/88) without an AKI event. After adjusting for age and eGFR at the time of enrollment, the severity of an AKI event according to KDIGO guidelines (stage 1 if serum creatinine rises 1.5-1.9 times baseline, stage 2 if the rise is 2.0-2.9 times baseline, and stage 3 if the rise is ≥3 times baseline or ≥4.0 mg/dL or requires renal replacement therapy) was a risk factor for CKD progression (unadjusted HR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.3, P=0.02; age- and eGFR-adjusted HR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.5, P=0.03). In conclusion, AKI is commonly observed in adults with sickle cell anemia and is associated with increasing age and the HMOX1 GT-repeat and rs743811 polymorphisms. Furthermore, AKI may be associated with a steeper decline in kidney function and more severe AKI events may be a risk factor for subsequent CKD progression in SCA. Future studies understanding the mechanisms, consequences of AKI on long-term kidney function, and therapies to prevent AKI in SCA are warranted. Disclosures Gordeuk: Emmaus Life Sciences: Consultancy.

Abstract MP08: Whole Exome Sequencing Study Identified A Novel Variant For Kidney Function And Progression Of Chronic Kidney Disease

Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Changwei Li ◽  
Michael Francis ◽  
Adrianna Westbrook ◽  
Ruiyuan Zhang ◽  
Ye Shen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Exome Sequencing ◽  
Whole Exome Sequencing ◽  
Kidney Function ◽  
Cystatin C ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Missense Variant ◽  
Ckd Progression ◽  
Whole Exome

Introduction: Most genetic variants for chronic kidney disease (CKD) have been identified in non-coding regions, with functional roles that are difficult to interpret. Hypothesis: A whole exome sequencing study focusing on coding variants will reveal novel mechanisms of kidney function and CKD. Methods: We performed whole exome sequencing analyses of cystatin C among 29,789 UK Biobank (UKB) participants with further confirmation among 4,297 white and 607 African American participants of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Conditional analyses for loci achieving exome-wide significance ( P <3.5х10 -7 ) were conducted in UKB using both the exome (n=29,789) and imputed GWAS data (n=295,122). Genomic findings were tested for relevance to baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and stringently adjudicated CKD progression events among participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) by race and smoking status, using a base model and a full model ( Table ). Results: We identified a common missense variant, CST9 rs2983640, in a previously reported locus ( CST3 intron rs13038305), of which the minor G allele was associated with lower serum cystatin C level (UKB: beta=-0.03 mg/L, P =7.64х10 -92 ; HRS whites: beta=-0.05 mg/L, P =4.71х10 -6 ; HRS African Americans: beta=-0.03 mg/L, P =0.64; and multi-ethnic meta-analysis beta=-0.03 mg/L, P =2.46х10 -91 ). After controlling for the CST3 variant, the G allele was associated with higher cystatin C level (UKB exome: beta=0.003 mg/L, P =0.04; UKB GWAS: beta=0.003 mg/L, P =1.47х10 -10 ). Similar associations were identified in white CRIC participants (direct effect: beta=-0.05 mg/L, P =0.005; conditional effect: beta=0.004 mg/L, P =0.86). The CST9 rs2983640 G allele was associated with lower baseline eGFR (base model beta=-0.33 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , P =1.98х10 -6 ) and higher hazard of developing CKD progression independent of the reported CST3 variant ( Table ). Conclusions: We identified a novel missense variant influencing cystatin C level and CKD progression.

Abstract MP30: Chronic Kidney Disease Progression and Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease: The Use of Change in Novel Kidney Filtration Markers

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 129 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Casey M Rebholz ◽  
Kunihiro Matsushita ◽  
Elizabeth Selvin ◽  
Morgan E Grams ◽  
Josef Coresh
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Cystatin C ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
Ckd Progression ◽  
Percent Change ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage

Introduction: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression assessed by estimated GFR from creatinine (eGFR-Cr) is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and has been proposed as a surrogate endpoint for clinical trials. It is unclear if CKD progression assessed by change in different filtration markers has similar risk associations with ESRD. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that percent change in novel kidney filtration markers (β 2 -microglobulin and cystatin C) over a 6-year period would be independently associated with increased risk of ESRD during 15 years of follow-up, similar to the risk seen with change in eGFR-Cr. Methods: We conducted prospective analyses of the ARIC study (N=9,703). β 2 -microglobulin, cystatin C, and creatinine were measured at study visits 1 (1990-92) and 2 (1996-98). Incident ESRD (kidney dialysis or transplant) was defined as entry into the U.S. Renal Data System registry between study visit 2 and September 30, 2011. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association between percent change in filtration marker and incident ESRD, adjusting for demographics, kidney disease risk factors, and 1 st measurement of the filtration marker. Results: During a median follow-up of 13.1 years, there were 142 incident ESRD cases. Median eGFR-Cr was 97.3 mL/min/1.73 m 2 at 1 st measurement and 89.0 mL/min/1.73 m 2 at 2 nd measurement. Percent change in eGFR-Cr was moderately correlated with percent change in the inverse of β 2 -microglobulin (r = 0.34) and the inverse of cystatin C (r = 0.36). Progression of CKD (10-25% and >25% decline in filtration function) was associated with increased ESRD risk, with novel markers (β 2 -microglobulin, cystatin C) showing an association at least as strong as the creatinine and eGFR-Cr estimates (Table). Conclusions: CKD progression assessed using novel filtration markers is independently associated with ESRD risk, suggesting the potential utility of measuring change in β 2 -microglobulin and cystatin C in clinical trials.

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