Ebb Tide of the West

2020 ◽  
pp. 216-250
Author(s):  
David Kilcullen
Keyword(s):  
High Tide ◽  
Current Approach ◽  
Great Power ◽  
Weak States ◽  
Strategic Responses ◽  
The West ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
High Point ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Failing States

This chapter explores the declining efficacy of the Western military model since 2003, canvasses various strategic responses to it—including doubling down on the current approach, embracing decline, and “going Byzantine”—and recommends a strategy of strategic delay. It argues that the high point of Western military dominance in the post–Cold War era—the “high tide of the West”—coincided with the failed decapitation strike against Saddam Hussein in March 2003, and that since then Western powers have acted as if they were still in a Woolseyan security environment (where the principal threats originated from weak states, failing states and nonstate actors) when actually the environment was post-Woolseyan; that is, characterized by a return of state-based threats and great-power military competition. The chapter considers three possible responses to this problem, evaluates their strengths and weaknesses, and concludes that our best bet (though by no means a certain solution) is to play for time, adopt a light footprint offshore balancing strategy, and attempt to create space for a potentially acceptable successor order to emerge.

The PLA and Chinese National Security Policy: Leaderships, Structures, Processes

1996 ◽  
Vol 146 ◽  
pp. 360-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Swaine
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Major Power ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Chinese Case ◽  
Internal Change ◽  
Territorial Claims

China's rise as a major power constitutes one of the most significant strategic events of the post-Cold War period. Many policy-makers, strategists and scholars express significant concern over the implications of China's growing military and economic capabilities for the future security environment in Asia and beyond. Such concern derives in part from an anticipation of the systemic security problems that have historically accompanied the emergence of a new power. In the Chinese case, however, these anxieties are greatly compounded by the rapidity of internal change under way in China, the general lack of knowledge about Chinese strategic ambitions, the existence of many unresolved Chinese territorial claims, the intense suspicion and even hostility toward the West harboured by China's leadership, and China's internal political and social instabilities.

Sarajevo, February 1994: the first Russia-NATO crisis of the post-Cold War era

2003 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jim Headley
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Great Power ◽  
Market Place ◽  
The West ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
East West

This article analyses the Russian reaction to the Sarajevo crisis of February 1994 when NATO threatened air strikes in response to the market-place mortar explosion. I argue that Russia's shift to a realist great-power policy led to a crisis with the West as Russia sought to demonstrate its great power credentials, protect what it saw as specific Russian interests in the Balkans, and limit the role of NATO in conflict resolution, while Western leaders aimed to demonstrate NATO credibility and its new post-Cold War role as peace-keeper/peace-maker. This was the first major East-West crisis since the end of the Cold War, and Russian responses and actions foreshadowed its reactions to the Kosovo crisis.

scholarly journals ‘But in Asia we too are Europeans’: Russia’s multifaceted engagement with the standard of civilisation

2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 432-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Kaczmarska
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Cold War ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Great Power ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
The West ◽  
Colonial Era ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Do So

The standard of civilisation served Western states to hierarchically organise international politics and reproduce Western pre-eminence. Russia, depending on the historical period, has been interpreted as either an ardent follower or a major challenger to Western projects, but it has been markedly absent from debates regarding the standard. This article proposes to engage Russia in the standard of civilisation discussion with reference to the standard’s two most considered expositions: the colonial-era ‘original’ and what the literature interprets as the standard’s contemporary revival. In order to do so, I trace Russia’s nineteenth-century colonial practices and analyse Russia’s selected policies towards post-Soviet states in the post–Cold War period. On the basis of these explorations, I argue that Russia’s application of the standard of civilisation goes beyond the mere reproduction of hierarchical arrangements between an imagined centre and peripheries. The practices of the standard of civilisation have been employed to improve Russia’s desired, and imagined, status in international politics – that of a great power equal to the West. From that it follows that the concept of the standard of civilisation should be recognised as ordering relations not only of the strong and the weak but also of those in position of power in international politics.

Piecing Together the Democratic Peace: The CSCE, Norms, and the “Construction” of Security in Post–Cold War Europe

1999 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 505-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Flynn ◽  
Henry Farrell
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Community Building ◽  
Great Power ◽  
Democratic Peace ◽  
Collective Security ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
And Control

The end of the Cold War has profoundly transformed Europe's security situation. Although traditional security issues remain important, the most immediate threats to security since 1989 have originated not from relations between states, but from instability and conflict within states that has threatened to spill over into the interstate arena. States' efforts to shape and control this new security environment have resulted in a unique hybrid arrangement containing elements of traditional alliances, great power concerts, state and community building, and collective security.

Numerical Model of Current Speed in Bojong Salawe Beach, Pangandaran West Java Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
Subiyanto Subiyanto ◽  
Nira na Nirwa ◽  
Yuniarti Yuniarti ◽  
Yudi Nurul Ihsan ◽  
Eddy Afrianto
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
High Tide ◽  
Movement Pattern ◽  
Numerical Data ◽  
Current Speed ◽  
The West ◽  
Instantaneous Speed ◽  
The Difference ◽  
West Monsoon ◽  
Current Movement

The purpose of this study was to determine the hydrodynamic conditions at Bojong Salawe beach. The method used in this research is a quantitative method, where numerical data is collected to support the formation of numerical models such as wind, bathymetry, and tide data. The hydrodynamic model will be made using Mike 21 with the Flow Model FM module to determine the current movement pattern based on the data used. In the west monsoon with a maximum instantaneous speed of 0.04 - 0.08 m/s, while in the east monsoon it moves with a maximum instantaneous speed of 0,4 – 0,44 m/s. The dominant direction of current movement tends to the northeast. The results indicate the current speed during the east monsoon is higher than the west monsoon. The difference in the current speed is also influenced by the tide conditions; higher during high tide and lower during low tide. Monsoons also have a role in the current movements, though the effect is not very significant.

scholarly journals The Sino-Russian Relationship: Fellow Travellers in the West-dominated World

2018 ◽  
Vol 236 ◽  
pp. 1197-1205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Kaczmarski
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Cold War ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Grand Strategy ◽  
The West ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Dividing Line

A decade ago, Beijing's relations with Moscow were of marginal interest to China scholars. Topics such as growing Sino-American interdependence-cum-rivalry, engagement with East Asia or relations with the developing world overshadowed China's relationship with its northern neighbour. Scholars preoccupied with Russia's foreign policy did not pay much attention either, regarding the Kremlin's policy towards China as part and parcel of Russia's grand strategy directed towards the West. The main dividing line among those few who took a closer look ran between sceptics and alarmists. The former interpreted the post-Cold War rapprochement as superficial and envisioned an imminent clash of interests between the two states. The latter, a minority, saw the prospect of an anti-Western alliance.

scholarly journals Russia living from its past

2019 ◽  
pp. 171-183
Author(s):  
Isabela de Andrade Gama
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Cold War ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Great Power ◽  
Ontological Security ◽  
The West ◽  
Western Countries ◽  
Inferior Status ◽  
The Cold War

Since the end of the Cold War Russia has been treated as a defeated state. Western countries usually perceive Russia not only as a defeated state but also relating it to Soviet Union. Beyond that the West has Orientalized Russia, segregating it from the “western club” of developed states. But Russia’s recovery from the collapse of the 90’s made it more assertive towards the West. It’s proposed here that this assertiveness is due to it’s orientalization, it’s inferior status perceived by the West. The inferior perception by the West has triggered a process of identity’s reconstruction which will be analyzed through a perspective of ontological security. The more Russia has it’s great power status denied, the more aggressive it becomes regarding it’s foreign policy. As the international hierarchy continues to treat Russia as that of “behind” the modern states, and the more it feels marginalized, it will double down on efforts to regain its great power status it will have to dispose power. Russia’s ontological insecurity might lead it to a path of aggressiveness.

scholarly journals Strategic Responses to Wicked Problems of Heritage Management: Experiences from the West Link Infrastructure Project in Gothenburg, Sweden

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1032
Author(s):  
Susanne Fredholm ◽  
Maitri Dore ◽  
Sara Brorström
Keyword(s):  
Wicked Problems ◽  
Heritage Management ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Wicked Problem ◽  
Strategic Responses ◽  
The West ◽  
Infrastructure Planning ◽  
Stakeholder Perspectives ◽  
Working Groups ◽  
Strategy As Practice

Heritage management in infrastructure planning is in this paper regarded as a ‘wicked problem’—a multidimensional and unpredictable activity infused with conflicting stakeholder perspectives. By focusing on the West Link and drawing on theoretical notions of strategy-as-practice, the aim is to identify the circumstances in which paradoxes and dilemmas of wicked problems emerge and examine the professional micro-level strategizing applied to navigate and overcome them. The railway construction was deemed to be a threat to the 17th century fortifications, historical parks and former agricultural properties, today located in the city center. The Swedish government appointed representatives from the Swedish Transport Administration and heritage professionals from national, regional and local levels of government to negotiate how best to deal with these challenges. By means of primary data from interviews and workshops with stakeholders, and document- and correspondence analysis, the results showed how three main challenges hampered a fruitful dialogue and outcome: the inherent complexity of the task, different approaches to heritage and lack of adequate coordination within and between the parties. Strategic responses included action plans, delegation of tasks in reference and working groups, the signing of agreements, reorganization and financing of additional personnel. We discuss the main factors underlining the wickedness of heritage management in infrastructure planning as both processual and collaborative, and the implications of this for practice regarding bringing about more operative and sustainable approaches.

scholarly journals The Russian Federation and Reshaping a Post-Cold War Order

Politeja ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5(62)) ◽  
pp. 161-174
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Bryc
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
World Order ◽  
The United States ◽  
Western World ◽  
The West ◽  
Crimean Peninsula ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
International Standing ◽  
Munich Security Conference

Russia attempts to revise a Western-led liberal world order. However, challenging the West seems to be a strategy aimed at improving Russia’s international standing. This strategy is undoubtedly ambiguous as Russia challenges the West, particularity the United States, and looks for a rapprochement at the same time.The Russian Federation abandoned the West in 2014 as a result of the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula what constituted breaking international law, andengagement into the war in the East Ukraine. Nevertheless, the milestone was not 2014, but 2008 when Russia had decided for the first time to use its militar yforce against Georgia and indirectly against the growing Western military and political presence in this post-Soviet republic. This game changer was hardly a surprise, because several signals of a desire to challenge the Western-led world order had appeared in the past at least twice in president Putin’s speeches in 2007 at Munich Security Conference and in 2014 during Valdai Club session in Sochi. This article seeks to provide a take in the discussion about the way Russia has been trying to reshape the post-Cold War order. This paper probes the notion that Russia has become a revisionist state trying to shape a post-Western world order. Besides, there are a few questions to be answered, first of all whether anti-Westernism is in fact its goal or rather an instrument in regaining more effective impact on international politics and how it may influence the post-ColdWar order despite its reduced political and economic potential.

Conclusion

After Lavinia ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Cold War ◽  
International Relations ◽  
First Century ◽  
European Countries ◽  
The West ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Northern European ◽  
Global Peace ◽  
Legal Rationality

This concluding chapter reflects on marriage in the contemporary West, noting that it has become an affective arrangement. In Britain and the northern European countries that still retain a constitutional form of monarchy, twenty-first-century royalty now prefer their own subjects as marriage partners, even if it means marrying a commoner like Kate Middleton. To the extent that these marriages to indigenous commoners have any bearing on foreign policy, they reaffirm the nationalist sentiments of the post-Westphalian state. The chapter argues that, despite all the legal rationality, global peace remains as elusive now as it was when Europeans tried to settle their quarrels through interdynastic marriage. It suggests that the opposition between the West and its post-Cold War enemies has brought the matter of gender and the place of women once more to the center of international relations.

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