War and Chance

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
International Affairs ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Osama Bin Laden

War and Chance analyzes the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs. It explains how the most important kinds of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective, and yet how scholars, practitioners, and pundits can still debate these issues in clear and structured ways. Altogether, the book shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any kind of foreign policy analysis or decision. The book substantiates this argument by examining critical episodes in the history of U.S. national security policy, such as strategic planning in Vietnam, assessments of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs, and the search for Osama bin Laden. The book also draws on a diverse range of quantitative evidence, including a database containing nearly one million geopolitical forecasts and experimental studies involving hundreds of national security professionals.

Government Officials, Academics, and the Process of Formulating U.S. National Security Policy Toward Africa

1990 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-20
Author(s):  
Larry W. Bowman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Phone Call ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
The Government ◽  
Research Contract ◽  
The U.S

Relationships between U.S. government officials and academic specialists working on national security and foreign policy issues with respect to Africa are many and complex. They can be as informal as a phone call or passing conversation or as formalized as a consulting arrangement or research contract. Many contacts exist and there is no doubt that many in both government and the academy value these ties. There have been, however, ongoing controversies about what settings and what topics are appropriate to the government/academic interchange. National security and foreign policy-making in the U.S. is an extremely diffuse process.

Introduction

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Policy Analysts ◽  
Bay Of Pigs

This chapter describes widespread skepticism regarding the value of assessing uncertainty in international politics. “Agnostics” argue that assessments of uncertainty in international politics are too unreliable to be useful for shaping major foreign policy decisions. “Rejectionists” argue that attempting to assess uncertainty in international politics can be counterproductive, surrounding foreign policy analyses with illusions of rigor or exposing foreign policy analysts to excessive criticism. “Cynics” claim that foreign policy analysts and decision makers have self-interested motives to avoid assessing uncertainty. The chapter explains how these ideas lead many scholars, practitioners, and pundits to avoid holding careful debates about the risks surrounding major foreign policy choices. The chapter describes how this aversion to probabilistic reasoning appears in several high-profile cases, such as President Kennedy’s decision to authorize the Bay of Pigs invasion and President Obama’s decision to raid Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

scholarly journals From Embargo to Blockade: An Evaluation of the United States Sanctions against Iran in the Context of the Use of Economic Impact Tools in Foreign Poli

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuri Gökhan Toprak
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
International Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Executive Orders ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The Us

The concept of influence can be defined as a tool of international actors, a form of power, the ability to overcome obstacles in order to achieve different purposes or the desired result in the process of power relations established between actors in international politics. According to the approach that aims to reach the concept of influence as the desired result, in the process of setting up influence states try to influence each other through different methods and tools in which can be used through states’ own capacities. In addition to political and military tools, economic impact tools related to the field of foreign trade and finance are frequently used today. Economic impact tools, such as external aid, which may be positive or rewarding, may also be negative or punitive in a range from the boycott to the blockade. The study aims to provide a qualitative assessment of the United States' (US) economic sanctions against Iran in the context of the use of economic impact tools in international politics. In order to achieve this aim, 12 executive orders issued by the US on the grounds that Iran poses a threat to its national security, foreign policy and economy will be examined. In the conclusion of the study, the assumption that the US sanctions against Iran almost for 40 years has become a multilateral structure such as commercial and financial blockade from a structure related to bilateral relations such as boycott and embargo will be tested.

scholarly journals The Influence of France and Italy's (Central)European projects on Yugoslavia's Re-evaluation of regional pacts (1927–1933)

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (2/2020) ◽  
pp. 39-60
Author(s):  
Srđan Mićić
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Security Policy ◽  
Central European ◽  
European Projects

This paper analyzes the impacts of the French and Italian plans for the political, military, and economic reorganization of European affairs on the Yugoslav reconsideration of regional pacts in national security policy and foreign policy, and the consequences of that reassessment on the Yugoslav standpoint toward the reorganizations of the Little Entente and its role in European affairs.

scholarly journals Ensuring national security: political-legal aspects

2021 ◽  
pp. 26-41
Author(s):  
Grigorii Aleksandrovich Maistrenko
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Social Relations ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Scientific Methods ◽  
Legal Method ◽  
The Russian Federation

National security issues are crucial, multifaceted, and integral phenomena of social and political life of the country. This article explores the normative legal framework that regulates this sphere of social relations. The article presents an analysis of the features of legal support for national security as a problem of stabilizing society. Analysis is conducted on the peculiarities of legal support of national security as the problem of stabilization of society. The author notes that the national security policy, first and foremost should be aimed at ensuring geopolitical interests of the Russian Federation, its sovereignty, political stability, and progressive socioeconomic development. Research methodology employs complex and systemic approaches; systemic, functional, historical general scientific methods; analysis and synthesis as private scientific methods; formal-legal analysis of normative legal acts; and comparative legal method. It is claimed that in the sphere of domestic policy, the key prerequisite for achieving the protection of national interests should consists in unification of the nation in order to solve spiritual, cultural and material tasks due to the overall sustainability and consent in the country, nonviolent resolution of domestic social conflicts; while in the sphere of foreign policy – planning and implementation of foreign policy actions from the perspective of ensuring national interests. The author gives practical recommendations for further improvement of national security system of the Russian Federation.

National Security Policy-Making and Cacophony of Voices in the Reagan Administration

1982 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-146
Author(s):  
P.M. Kamath
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
Reagan Administration ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
National Interest ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
National Security Policy

In the post-World War II period “national security” has become the most important concept commanding respect among policy-makers and demanding crippling-silence on the part of the national community. It is not necessary here to examine the reasons1, for this commandeering position given to the concept of national security, but in an objective sense, foreign affairs of any nation in the ultimate analysis is conducted to secure national security. In this sense national security essentially denotes a nation's determination to preserve at any cost some of its interests. Foremost are : territorial integrity, political independence and fundamental governmental institutions.2 In the contemporary world it is also a well established fact that the military, diplomatic and economic aspects of a nation's foreign affairs are inseperably interlinked with one another. While foreign policy aims at serving national interest through peaceful diplomatic means, military policy aims at preparedness to protect national interest in case foreign policy fails. The foreign policy of a nation has also to take into consideration economic states involved in a particular policy consideration. This is particularly true for a super power like the United States. Hence, in a sense, it is appropriate to term the combination of foreign and military policies of a nation as national security policy. Who makes national security policy in the United States? What are the special features of national security policy-making process? It is proposed to answer these questions in this paper with special reference to the Reagan Administration.

Détente and Domestic Politics

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian E. Zelizer
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
International Affairs ◽  
Conservative Movement ◽  
Henry Kissinger ◽  
Presidential Primaries

This chapter examines how domestic politics shaped the foreign policy of détente during the 1970s. It first considers Richard Nixon's pursuit of détente as part of his national security agenda and the role played by Henry Kissinger both under Nixon and Gerald Ford. It then explains how the national security centrism of Nixon and Ford failed to create a stable political majority within the Republican Party and shows how both presidents collided with two factions in the burgeoning conservative movement: neoconservatives from the Democratic Party and hawkish Republicans. It also discusses the 1976 Republican presidential primaries that dealt the final blow to détente within the GOP and suggests that Ronald Reagan's victory in the 1980 presidential election led Republicans to adopt a more militaristic outlook toward international affairs.

Subjective Probability and International Politics

2019 ◽  
pp. 51-68
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Policy Analyst ◽  
Subjective Judgments ◽  
Osama Bin Laden ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

This chapter explores the theoretical foundations of assessing uncertainty in international politics. It begins by explaining that virtually all important assessments of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective. The chapter’s second section explains how it is possible to believe that these subjective judgments are meaningless, but that this argument carries logical implications that no foreign policy analyst could accept. The chapter’s third section demonstrates that, conditional on believing that assessments of subjective probability contain any meaningful insight, it is always possible to express that insight in clear and structured ways, including through the use of numeric percentages. The chapter shows how its theoretical framework can help to resolve difficult analytic problems, focusing in particular on debates among U.S. intelligence analysts about the chances that Osama bin Laden was living in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in the spring of 2011.

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