Subjective Probability and International Politics

2019 ◽  
pp. 51-68
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Policy Analyst ◽  
Subjective Judgments ◽  
Osama Bin Laden ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

This chapter explores the theoretical foundations of assessing uncertainty in international politics. It begins by explaining that virtually all important assessments of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective. The chapter’s second section explains how it is possible to believe that these subjective judgments are meaningless, but that this argument carries logical implications that no foreign policy analyst could accept. The chapter’s third section demonstrates that, conditional on believing that assessments of subjective probability contain any meaningful insight, it is always possible to express that insight in clear and structured ways, including through the use of numeric percentages. The chapter shows how its theoretical framework can help to resolve difficult analytic problems, focusing in particular on debates among U.S. intelligence analysts about the chances that Osama bin Laden was living in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in the spring of 2011.

War and Chance

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
International Affairs ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Osama Bin Laden

War and Chance analyzes the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs. It explains how the most important kinds of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective, and yet how scholars, practitioners, and pundits can still debate these issues in clear and structured ways. Altogether, the book shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any kind of foreign policy analysis or decision. The book substantiates this argument by examining critical episodes in the history of U.S. national security policy, such as strategic planning in Vietnam, assessments of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs, and the search for Osama bin Laden. The book also draws on a diverse range of quantitative evidence, including a database containing nearly one million geopolitical forecasts and experimental studies involving hundreds of national security professionals.

Toward a Theory of International Politics

1955 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 733-746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth W. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Human Relations ◽  
Levels Of Abstraction ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Analysis Theory ◽  
Moving Front ◽  
Special Priority

Recently a group of scholars, analysts, and diplomatists met for a weekend conference on theoretical approaches to international politics. Their discussion was inspired by the widespread and growing interest in conceptual and theoretical problems illustrated by parallel efforts in the study of politics, economics, law, and human relations. In the field of foreign relations the impulse toward theory comes from practitioners as well as philosophers. Indeed a former Secretary of State maintains that our most urgent need is for “an applicable body of theory in foreign policy.” Practical men with first-hand diplomatic experience point to the need for rational generalizations and intellectual structures to extract meaning from the jet stream of contemporary events. The intellectual processes by which practical judgments are made along a moving front of events clearly demand inquiry and analysis. Theory in the study of international politics perhaps derserves a special priority because of the urgency of the problem and the stridency of the debate generated by competing approaches each claiming to have preempted the field. Perhaps what is called for is a sorting out and assessment of the intellectual factors that go into diverse theories of international politics at varying levels of abstraction and generality. This sorting out was one of the objectives of the conferees. Similarly this paper seeks to review the nature and purpose of theory, its limitations, and the characteristics of the chief types of theory in international politics.

scholarly journals L’état des études internationales au Canada : un survol de la recherche scientifique

2005 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 337-360
Author(s):  
Arpad Abonyi ◽  
Ivan J. Sylvain ◽  
Brian W. Tomlin
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Small Group ◽  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Scientific Study ◽  
Scholarly Journals ◽  
Four Dimensions ◽  
Systematic Survey ◽  
Issue Area

This article depicts the configuration of approaches to the scientific study of foreign policy and international politics in Canada, as represented in a systematic survey of research written in Canada and published in forty scholarly journals, some from as early as 1945 up to 1975. Scientific studies found in this sample were analyzed along four dimensions : theoretical basis ; issue area ; units upon which the investigation is based ; and method of analysis. Scientific study of international relations emerged as a largely recent yet growing phenomenon of the last decade. It constitutes a unique subfield outside the mainstream of research, and is concentrated among a relatively small group of individuals and even fewer institutions. Études internationales emerged as the single most important channel of communication for this subfield in Canada

Leibniz’s Political Vision for Europe

2015 ◽  
pp. 663-683
Author(s):  
Friedrich Beiderbeck
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Roman Empire ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Holy Roman Empire ◽  
Power Politics ◽  
Louis Xiv ◽  
Church Politics ◽  
Cultural Structures

This chapter examines Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz’s political vision for Europe, beginning with his views on the Holy Roman Empire and the Peace of Westphalia. It considers how Leibniz viewed Germany’s political and cultural structures and his support for the Reich, along with his thoughts on order, security, and law. It also discusses Leibniz’s modern notion of state and his ideas of territorial power, diplomacy, and international politics; his views on France’s foreign policy under Louis XIV and the War of Spanish Succession (1701–1713/14); and his dispute with Abbé de Saint Pierre over peace and balance of power in Europe. Finally, the chapter looks at Leibniz’s pronouncements on denominational issues and church politics, particularly the presence of Protestants and Catholics in Germany, and his arguments with regards to the House of Hanover and the role played by Great Britain in power politics as a counterbalance to French hegemony.

Conclusion

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Bentley
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Politics ◽  
International Community ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Chemical Weapons ◽  
Prominent Feature ◽  
Core Dynamics ◽  
International Discourse

OBAMA’S FOREIGN policy on Syria put the chemical weapons taboo front and centre of international politics. This has always been a prominent feature of international discourse. But now, where the taboo constituted (a) an imperative for, and justification of, US foreign policy, and (b) the basis of key diplomatic negotiations, so the norm came to dominate the entire crisis. As such, this would seem to substantiate the inherent claim behind the taboo, i.e. that chemical weapons are so offensive that possession and use cannot be tolerated. Furthermore, that violation cannot take place without a significant and norm-driven response from the international community, and especially from its hegemon. This view, however, is far too simplistic. Specifically, it ignores two core dynamics of the taboo’s use (where these map onto the two parts to this book):...

On Cognitive Computing

2012 ◽  
pp. 83-97
Author(s):  
Yingxu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Computational Intelligence ◽  
Autonomic Computing ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Autonomous Agent ◽  
Cognitive Computing ◽  
Cognitive Informatics ◽  
Intelligent Computing ◽  
Agent Systems ◽  
The Brain ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Inspired by the latest development in cognitive informatics and contemporary denotational mathematics, cognitive computing is an emerging paradigm of intelligent computing methodologies and systems, which implements computational intelligence by autonomous inferences and perceptions mimicking the mechanisms of the brain. This article presents a survey on the theoretical framework and architectural techniques of cognitive computing beyond conventional imperative and autonomic computing technologies. Theoretical foundations of cognitive computing are elaborated from the aspects of cognitive informatics, neural informatics, and denotational mathematics. Conceptual models of cognitive computing are explored on the basis of the latest advances in abstract intelligence and computational intelligence. Applications of cognitive computing are described from the aspects of autonomous agent systems and cognitive search engines, which demonstrate how machine and computational intelligence may be generated and implemented by cognitive computing theories and technologies toward autonomous knowledge processing.

Conceptual and Theoretical Foundations of Social Capital

2009 ◽  
pp. 18-42
Author(s):  
Ben Kei Daniel
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Capital ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Analytical Tool ◽  
The Social ◽  
Scientific Legitimacy ◽  
Basic Understanding ◽  
Work Done ◽  
Conceptual Foundations ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Social capital is a complex multifaceted and litigious theory, discussed in the Social Sciences and the Humanities. It is a theory increasingly researchers questioned its scientific legitimacy and yet paradoxically many other researchers continuously use it as a conceptual and theoretical framework to explain the structural and functional operations of communities. This Chapter discusses work done on the theory. It covers some of the theoretical controversy with a goal of aligning its conceptualization and distinguishing it from other types of capitals. The Chapter is organized first the basic theoretical and conceptual foundations of social capital are described. The aim is to present the reader with a basic understanding of what constitutes social capital, by opening discussion about various forms of capital(s)—as discussed in the disciplines of Economics and Sociology. Second, the Chapter discusses the origin of the theory as well as the work of key scholars who have contributed to the development of the theory. Furthermore, in order to identify the strengths and the weaknesses of the theory, the Chapter provides the reader with analysis of benefits and shortcomings of social capital both as a theoretical and analytical tool for studying communities.

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