Why so little is being done about the catastrophic risks

Catastrophe ◽  
2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A. Posner
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Child Pornography ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Catastrophic Risks ◽  
Extinction Events ◽  
The Cost

I have said that the dangers of catastrophe are growing. One reason is the rise of apocalyptic terrorism. Another, however—because many of the catastrophic risks are either created or amplified by science and technology—is the breakneck pace of scientific and technological advance. A clue to that pace is that between 1980 and 2000 the average annual growth rate of scientific and engineering employment in the United States was 4.9 percent, more than four times the overall employment growth rate. Growth in the number of scientific personnel of the other countries appears to have been slower, but still significant, though statistics are incomplete. Of particular significance is the fact that the cost of dangerous technologies, such as those of nuclear and biological warfare, and the level of skill required to employ them are falling, which is placing more of the technologies within reach of small nations, terrorist gangs, and even individual psychopaths. Yet, great as it is, the challenge of managing the catastrophic risks is receiving less attention than is lavished on social issues of far less intrinsic significance, such as race relations, whether homosexual marriage should be permitted, the size of the federal deficit, drug addiction, and child pornography. Not that these are trivial issues. But they do not involve potential extinction events or the modestly less cataclysmic variants of those events. So limited is systematic analysis of the catastrophic risks that there are no estimates of what percentage either of the federal government’s total annual research and development (R & D) expenditures (currently running at about $120 billion), or of its science and technology expenditures (that is, R & D minus the D), which are about half the total R & D budget, are devoted to protection against them. Not that R & D is the only expenditure category relevant to the catastrophic risks. But it is a very important one. We do know that federal spending on defense against the danger of terrorism involving chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapons rose from $368 million in 2002 (plus $203 million in a supplemental appropriation) to more than $2 billion in 2003.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Energy Consumption in the United States: An Overview

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindsey Kahn ◽  
Hamidreza Najafi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
Average Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
End User ◽  
End Use ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Lockdown measures and mobility restrictions implemented to combat the spread of the novel COVID-19 virus have impacted energy consumption patterns, particularly in the United States. A review of available data and literature on the impact of the pandemic on energy consumption is performed to understand the current knowledge on this topic. The overall decline of energy use during lockdown restrictions can best be identified through the analysis of energy consumption by source and end-user breakdown. Using monthly energy consumption data, the total 9-months use between January and September for the years 2015–2020 are calculated for each end-use. The cumulative consumption within these 9 months of the petroleum, natural gas, biomass, and electricity energy by the various end-use sectors are compared to identify a shift in use throughout time with the calculation of the percent change from 2019 to 2020. The analysis shows that the transportation sector experienced the most dramatic decline, having a subsequent impact on the primary energy it uses. A steep decline in the use of petroleum and natural gas by the transportation sector has had an inevitable impact on the emission of carbon dioxide and other air pollutants during the pandemic. Additionally, the most current data for the consumption of electricity by each state and each end-user in the times before and during the pandemic highlights the impact of specific lockdown procedures on energy use. The average total consumption for each state was found for the years 2015–2019. This result is used calculation of yearly growth rate and average annual growth rate in 2020 for each state and end-user. The total average annual growth rate for 2020 was used to find a correlation coefficient between COVID-19 case and death rates as well as population density and lockdown duration. To further examine the relationship a correlation coefficient was calculated between the 2020 average annual growth rate for all sectors and average annual growth rate for each individual end-user.

Scientometric Study of Poultry Industry Research Publications: A Global Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (S1) ◽  
pp. 25-30
Author(s):  
Jisha Antony ◽  
S. Raja ◽  
P. Dhanya
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Publication Output ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
United States Department ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Poultry Industry ◽  
Prolific Author ◽  
Poultry Science

This study analysis ‘Publication output of Poultry industry’ in the Scopus database during the period 2008 to 2017. The analysis revealed that the total 4248 documents indexed in the database during the selected period of study. The highest productive year is 2017 with 610 publications (14.36%) and the lowest is 2008 with 268 publications (6.31%). 77.87% of publications are scholarly articles. The most prolific author is S.C. Ricke. With 25(0.59%) papers followed by K. Dhama with 22 (0.52 %/) papers. The most productive country is the United States with 1071 publications. The famous Journal in this field is ‘Poultry science’ with 255 publications (6%) and the journals ‘World S Poultry Science Journal’ with 115 publications (2.71%) and ‘Avian Diseases’ with 113 publications (2.66%) occupies the second and third ranks respectively. From the institutional output, the United States Department of Agriculture, Washington DC dominates the other institutions with the output of 138 articles (3.25%). The poultry industry is a multidisciplinary subject and it includes articles with different areas and the main subject areas are found to be Agricultural and Biological Sciences having 2168 documents followed by Immunology and Microbiology with 988 documents. This study also analysis Annual Growth Rate, Relative growth rate, doubling time.

Authorship Pattern and Collaboration Coefficient of Library Professional’s Competency on Research Publications During 1999-2018: A Scientometric Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-89
Author(s):  
Nutan Gaud ◽  
M. P. Singh ◽  
Bhoopendra Singh
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Scientometric Analysis ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Authorship Pattern ◽  
Relative Growth ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Scopus Database

The present study aims to analysis authorship pattern and collaboration coefficient of library professional’s competency publications research from 1999-2018. The data has been downloaded by Scopus database. A total number of published articles during the period of study was 433 in the particular database on the topic of ‘professional’s competency’. The study examine various scientometric parameter such as authorship pattern, year wise distribution of publication, determine the annual growth rate and compound annual growth rate of publication, relative growth rate and doubling time of publication and so many. After the analysis, it is found that the highest 11.78% of an article published in the year 2015. The highest growth rate in 2000 and the lowest in 1999. The United States published highest 174 article and secured first place in top five countries wish distribution of the publication. Majority of the article is published by single authors is 171 articles during the period of study.

scholarly journals Mapping the Research Trends on Information Literacy of Selected Countries during 2008 2017 A Scientometric Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 125-130
Author(s):  
Manoj Kumar Verma ◽  
Ravi Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Information Literacy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Scientometric Analysis ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Measurement Tools ◽  
Prolific Authors

The growth rate of literature on ‘Information Literacy’ during the period of 10 years i.e. (2008-2017) in which a total of 9496 research papers were published in the field of Information Literacy is analysed. A scientometric study is one of the most famous measurement tools to identify and find out the publications trends in the field of sciences. The study analysed and examined the different scientometric parameters i.e. year wise distributions of publications, annual growth rate, compound annual growth rate, relative growth rate and doubling time, most productive authors, geographical distributions and found that the maximum 1234 (12.99 %) were published in 2016, 25.679 per cent annual growth rate was recorded in the year 2010 and the maximum 10.212 per cent CAGR recorded in 2009. The maximum RGR 0.795 and Dt. 5.824 were recorded in 2009 and 2017, respectively. The most prolific authors were Wolf, M.S with 65 publication, followed by 31 publication by Pinto, M. The maximum citations were recorded in the 2010 i.e. 14298, followed by 13594 citation in 2011. The maximum 5770 of contributions were published by the United States, followed by the United Kingdom with 1028 contribution.

scholarly journals PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF INCOME CAPITALIZATION METHOD IN BUSINESS VALUATION – SOME HIGHLIGHTS

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-30
Author(s):  
Lyubomir Todorov
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Cost Of Equity ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Business Valuation ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
The Cost

The paper describes the advantages and disadvantages of the income approach in business valuation, the essence of the method of income capitalization, as well as the peculiarities related to its application. Two main variants of the method are presented, depending on the choice of income to be capitalized. The first option is based on the net cash flow and is mainly applied to the valuation of enterprises with high investment absorption and, respectively, high share of depreciation in total expenses. The second option is based on net profit and is preferred by valuers when valuing low investment absorption firms or holding companies.A practical case study is presented to evaluate a holding company related to the determination of the market value of a minority share package. The cost of equity of the rated entity is determined by the CAPM model modifications for emerging markets. At the end, conclusions have been drawn and some problems have been described that appraisers should pay attention to. The Income Capitalization method has an easy algorithm, but its practical application is not so simple. Both fundamental knowledge and experience, as well as evaluators' attention are required, as a number of factors and circumstances must be taken into account regarding: the choice of income to be capitalized, the choice of variant for valuation methodology, model for determining the cost of equity or the weighted average cost of capital, determining the “small firm risk premium”, determining the normalized income, the long-term rate of income growth, adjustments for minority or majority ownership, adjustments for marketability and others. In this method, the market value of equity (VE) is highly sensitive to the discount rate (the cost of capital), the long-term growth rate and the capitalization rate, respectively. Even small differences in these parameters can lead to a large difference in the value of the estimate. This requires precision and good argumentation on the part of the valuers regarding the pricing of equity, the cost of debt and the long-term average annual growth rate of income.For companies with stable incomes and good prospects for development, this method provides a relatively accurate estimate of the market value of equity. However, it must be borne in mind that the future is always uncertain. In this regard, appraisers should make a sufficiently accurate assessment of the level of business risk and financial risk of the entity being evaluated.

scholarly journals Analysis of Global Pediatric Cancer Research and Publications

2020 ◽  
pp. 9-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleni Syrimi ◽  
Grant Lewison ◽  
Richard Sullivan ◽  
Pamela Kearns
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Research ◽  
Pediatric Cancer ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Research Activity ◽  
Geographical Differences ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Proxy Measure ◽  
The Cost

This study sought to investigate the amount of global research activity and investment in pediatric cancer research, using publications as a proxy measure, and to understand geographical differences in research activity. To do this, we used a quantitative method—bibliometrics—to analyze Web of Science publications in the 10 years from 2007 to 2016. We found that global pediatric cancer research outputs have increased from 2,937 in 2007 to 4,513 in 2016, at an annual growth rate of 4.3%. This rate is slower than for both cancer research as a whole and general pediatric research. The increase in output was due almost entirely to China. International collaboration was similar to that in cancer research overall, with the highest levels among countries in close geographical proximity. Hematological and CNS childhood cancers are the main areas for research. Genetics and prognosis were the main research domains, and there was little work on radiotherapy or palliative care. In terms of citations, the best-performing countries were the Netherlands, the United States, and the United Kingdom. On the basis of estimates of the cost of research papers in different countries, the total world pediatric cancer research expenditure is estimated to have been 1.54 billion US dollars (USD) in 2013, and 1.79 billion USD in 2016. Our data suggest that current global policy toward pediatric cancer needs significant review and change to increase investments, balance research portfolios, and improve research that is relevant to low- and middle-income countries.

scholarly journals Growth and Instability in Production and Export of Almond in Afghanistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (04) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Wahid Sultani ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
World Production ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
High Instability

The almond is native to Iran and surrounding countries as well as Asia. In 2017, world production of almonds was 2.2 million tones, with the United States providing 46% of the total. According to FAO Afghanistan is one of the 10 top producers of almonds. The study examined the growth and instability of area, production, export and consumption of almond in Afghanistan from 2000 to 2017. Exponential function fitted to estimate compound annual growth rates (CAGR) in area, production, export and consumption of almond, and Cuddy – Della Valle indices are used in the study. The compound growth rates for area, production and productivity of almonds in Afghanistan were 5.77 %, 7.37 % and 1.52 % respectively. Area under almond crop exhibited medium (19,52) instability, where production and productivity shown high (50.05 and 49.01) instability respectively, during this period. Almond consumption grew by 6.75 per cent and export grew with compound annual growth rate of 6.12 per cent from the year 2000 to 2017.Both export and consumption of almond registered high instability in this period.

Definitions, Key Characteristics, and Generations of Mobile Games

2009 ◽  
pp. 289-295 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eui Jun Jeong ◽  
Dan J. Kim
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Digital Media ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Mobile Games ◽  
Wireless Environment ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
The World ◽  
Game Industry ◽  
Definition Of

In the emerging wireless environment of digital media communications represented as ubiquitous and convergence, rapid distribution of handheld mobile devices has brought the explosive growth of the mobile content market. Along with the development of the mobile content industry, mobile games supported by mobile features such as portability (mobility), accessibility (generality), and convenience (simplicity) have shown the highest growth rate in the world game market these days. In-Stat/MDR (2004) and Ovum (2004) expect that the mobile games’ annual growth rate between 2005 and 2009 will be around 50% in the United States and 30% in the world. According to KGDI (2005) and CESA (2005), compared to the rate of the whole game market (5%) of the world, it is about six times higher, and it exceeds the rate of video console (10%) and online games (25%). Mobile games thus are predicted to be one of the leading platforms in the world game market in 10 years’ time. In addition, as the competition among game companies has been enhanced with the convergence of game platforms, mobile games are being regarded as a breakthrough for the presently stagnant game market, which has focused on heavy users. However, due to the relative novelty of mobile games, there are a few visible barriers in the mobile game industry. First, definitions and terminologies and key characteristics related to mobile games are not clearly arranged as yet. Second, there is little research on the classification and development trends of mobile games. Therefore, this article is designed to contribute insights into these barriers in three ways. Firstly, the article provides narrow and broad definitions of mobile games. Secondly, key characteristics, platforms, and service types of mobile games are discussed. Finally, following the broad definition of mobile games, this article classifies mobile games as one to fourth generations and one pre-generation. Characteristics and examples of each generation are also presented.

Abstract 206: Projected Estimates of Prevalence and Annual Growth Rate of Atrial Fibrillation in the United States from a Dynamic Age-Period Progression Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Colilla ◽  
Ann Crow ◽  
Teresa Simon ◽  
Daniel E Singer ◽  
William Petkun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Progression Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
The Us ◽  
Incident Cases

Background: Estimates from epidemiologic studies projecting the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the US have varied widely in the literature, ranging from 2.7 million cases to 6.1 million cases for 2010. While the prevalence of AF is increasing due to an aging population, the extended survival of the elderly population and increases in other AF risk factors in the US population have not been factored into the current published AF prevalence projections. The large range of prevalence estimates for AF may be due to several factors, including study design, time period when study participants were ascertained, increases in AF over time, changes in AF diagnostic tools, and aging demographics. Methods: In an effort to quantify the population size for AF, a yearly annual incidence rate was estimated over a 7-year period (2002-2009) using data from a large US health insurance claims database (i3, n=45,871). Prevalence estimates were modeled for each year based on US population age and gender distribution and mortality rates. The US AF prevalence was computed (upweighted to age-standardized US census data) in a dynamic age-period cohort progression (Markov chain) model, which back-tracked prevalence to 1990 from incidence rates and projected trends forward to 2020. Results: The number of prevalent chronic plus current year incident cases of AF for 2010 was estimated at 5.2 million cases and was projected to increase to 8.4 million by 2020 (Figure). The estimated AF incidence was projected to double from approximately 200 cases/100,000 in 2010 to over 450 cases/100,000 in 2020, equating to an annual growth rate of 4.7%. Conclusion: These estimates, derived from the largest longitudinal study sample reported thus far, with a dynamic age-period cohort progression model, suggest that the diagnosed AF population in the US in 2010 was approximately 5.2 million cases, which falls within the wide range previously reported in the literature and may represent a more precise estimate.

Trends in Medicare reimbursement for neurosurgical procedures: 2000 to 2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 132 (2) ◽  
pp. 649-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack M. Haglin ◽  
Kent R. Richter ◽  
Naresh P. Patel
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Neurosurgical Procedures ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Medicare Reimbursement ◽  
Reimbursement Rate ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Percent Change

OBJECTIVEThere is currently a paucity of literature evaluating procedural reimbursements and financial trends in neurosurgery. A comprehensive understanding of the economic trends and financial health of neurosurgery is important to ensure the sustained success and growth of the specialty moving forward. The purpose of this study was to evaluate monetary trends of the 10 most common spinal and cranial neurosurgical procedures in Medicare reimbursement rates from 2000 to 2018.METHODSThe Physician Fee Schedule Look-Up Tool from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services was queried for each of the top 10 most utilized Current Procedural Terminology codes in both spinal and cranial neurosurgery, and comprehensive reimbursement data were extracted. The raw percent change in Medicare reimbursement rate from 2000 to 2018 was calculated for each procedure and averaged. This was then compared to the percent change in consumer price index over the same time. Using data adjusted for inflation, trend analysis was performed for all included procedures. Adjusted R-squared and both the average annual and the total percent change in reimbursement were calculated based on these adjusted trends for all included procedures. Likewise, the compound annual growth rate was calculated for all procedures.RESULTSWhen all reimbursement data were adjusted for inflation, the average reimbursement for all procedures decreased by an average of 25.80% from 2000 to 2018. From 2000 to 2018, the adjusted reimbursement rate for all included procedures decreased by an average of 1.59% each year and experienced an average compound annual growth rate of −1.66%, indicating a steady annual decline in reimbursement when adjusted for inflation.CONCLUSIONSThis is the first study to evaluate comprehensive trends in Medicare reimbursement in neurosurgery. When adjusted for inflation, Medicare reimbursement for all included procedures has steadily decreased from 2000 to 2018, with similar rates of decline observed between cranial and spinal neurosurgery procedures. Increased awareness and consideration of these trends will be important moving forward for policy makers, hospitals, and neurosurgeons as continued progress is made to advance agreeable reimbursement models that allow for the sustained growth of neurosurgery in the United States.

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