Secularization Accelerates in High-Income Countries
Although intergenerational population replacement involves long time lags, cultural change can reach a tipping point at which new norms become dominant. Social desirability effects then reverse polarity: instead of retarding cultural changes, they accelerate them. In the shift from pro-fertility norms to individual-choice norms, this point has been reached in a growing number of settings, starting with the younger and more secure strata of high-income societies, accelerating secularization. Analysis of religious change in countries from which time-series survey evidence was available from 1981 to 2007 found that the publics of 33 of the 49 countries had become more religious during this period. From 2007 to 2020, the dominant trend reversed itself, with 42 of the 49 countries showing declining religiosity. The most dramatic shift was found among the American public, which in 2007 had shown virtually no change since 1981, but from 2007 to 2020 showed the largest shift away from religion of any country for which we have data.