Marshal

2021 ◽  
pp. 147-152
Author(s):  
William Klinger ◽  
Denis Kuljiš
Keyword(s):  
Advanced Age ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Postwar Europe ◽  
The Us

This chapter recounts how the Comintern had been pushed into the background after moving first to Kuybyshev and then to Ufa, and finally away from the Moscow vortex. It tells of the eventual expiration of the Comintern in the summer of 1943, during which Fascist Italy also collapsed between July and September. It also refers to Vladimir Nazor, a well-known poet who joined the Partisans despite his advanced age, who wrote a few poems that were set to music by composer Oskar Danon in the glory of the newly minted Marshal Tito. The chapter discusses the arrival of the US delegation in Tehran for the Allied conference codenamed “Eureka” in November 1943 with a bundle of raw estimates and worst-case scenarios. It mentions Harry Hopkins, Roosevelt's special advisor, who anticipated Soviet domination in postwar Europe.

Occupational exposure to antimony trioxide: a risk assessment

2020 ◽  
pp. oemed-2020-106980
Author(s):  
Samantha Schildroth ◽  
Gwendolyn Osborne ◽  
Anna R Smith ◽  
Caryn Yip ◽  
Caroline Collins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Occupational Exposure ◽  
Cancer Risk ◽  
Flame Retardants ◽  
Human Cancer ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Antimony Trioxide ◽  
Occupational Cancer ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
The Us ◽  
Occupational Settings

ObjectivesThe US National Toxicology Program (NTP) recently recommended in its Report on Carcinogens Monograph for Antimony Trioxide that antimony trioxide be listed as ‘reasonably anticipated to be a human carcinogen’ based on sufficient evidence of carcinogenicity in experimental animals and supporting evidence from mechanistic studies. Our goal was to estimate the possible human cancer risk from occupational exposure to antimony trioxide.MethodsWe selected data from 2-year inhalation studies in male and female mice conducted by the NTP and performed cancer dose–response analyses using cancer models and benchmark dose methods developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency. In these analyses, we generated benchmark doses and cancer slope factors for antimony trioxide, and then estimated human cancer risk under various exposure scenarios. Typical and worst-case inhalation scenarios in multiple occupational settings were used in risk estimation.ResultsIn typical case scenarios, the occupational cancer risk from antimony trioxide was estimated to be 0.025 (25 in 1000) for persons working with flame retardants in plastics and textiles for 40 years. Under worst-case scenarios, the occupational cancer risk was estimated to be 0.11 (110 in 1000) for persons working with flame retardants in plastics and textiles. At the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration Permissible Exposure Limit, the cancer risk for occupational inhalation exposure of antimony trioxide was estimated to be 0.096 (96 in 1000).ConclusionThe risk estimates calculated in this study suggest that exposure to antimony trioxide at levels present in certain occupational settings results in a large increase in the risk of developing cancer.

Unsettled Issues in Commercial Vehicle Platooning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Savings ◽  
Commercial Vehicles ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Braking Performance ◽  
Vehicle Platooning ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us ◽  
Normal Human ◽  
Driver Acceptance ◽  
High Level

Platooning has the potential to reduce the energy consumption of commercial vehicles while improving safety; however, both advantages are currently difficult to quantify due to insufficient data and the wide range of variables affecting models. Platooning will significantly reduce the use of energy when compared to trucks driven alone, or at a safe distance for a driver without any automated assistance. Platooning will also reduce stopping distances—multiple states in the US have passed laws authorizing truck platoons to operate at shorter gaps than are authorized for normal, human-driven trucks. However, drivers typically do not currently leave the recommended gaps and, therefore, already gain much of the potential energy savings by drafting lead vehicles, albeit illegally. The automated systems associated with platooning cannot be programmed to flout safety recommendations in the way that human drivers routinely do. Therefore, actual energy savings may be minimal while safety may be greatly improved. More data will be needed to conclusively demonstrate a safety gain. Recommended safe gaps are currently highly generalized and must necessarily assume worst-case braking performance. Using a combination of condition monitoring and vehicle-to-vehicle communications, platooning systems will be able to account for the braking performance of other vehicles within the platoon. If all the vehicles in a platoon have a high level of braking performance, the platoon will be able to operate in a more efficient, tighter formation. Driver acceptance of platooning technology will increase as the systems become more effective and do not displace jobs. The increased loading of infrastructure must also be considered, and there may be requirements for upgrades on bridges or restrictions on platooning operation.

Analysis of freight train collision risk in the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 233 (8) ◽  
pp. 817-830 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tejashree Turla ◽  
Xiang Liu ◽  
Zhipeng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Freight Train ◽  
The Us ◽  
Traffic Exposure

Rail transportation is pivotal for the national economy. Despite being rare, a train accident can potentially result in severe consequences, such as infrastructure damage costs, casualties, and environmental impacts. An understanding of accident frequency, severity, and risk is important for rail safety management. In the United States, extensive prior research has focused on risk analyses of train derailments and highway–rail grade crossing accidents. Relatively less work has been conducted regarding train collision risk. The US Federal Railroad Administration identifies various accident causes, among which the authors of this study have analyzed the major collision causes. For each major accident cause, the authors have analyzed its resultant collision frequency, severity (in terms of damage cost or casualties), and correspondingly the risk, which is the combination of the frequency and severity. The analysis was based on train collision data in the United States from 2001 to 2015. This analysis focuses on freight trains in the United States, due to their immense traffic exposure. On the temporal scale, collision rate (the number of collisions normalized by traffic exposure) has an approximately 5% annual reduction. In terms of collision cause, failures to obey signals, overspeeds, and violations of mainline operating rules accounted for more collisions than other causes. Two alternative risk measures, namely the expected consequence and conditional value at risk, were used to evaluate the freight train collision risk on main tracks, accounting for both the average and worst-case scenarios. This collision risk analysis methodology may provide the US Department of Transportation and railroad industry with information and decision support for identifying, evaluating, and implementing cost-effective risk mitigation strategies.

Sludge disposal: ethics and expediency

2000 ◽  
Vol 42 (9) ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. A. Vesilind
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
Wastewater Treatment Plants ◽  
Health Effect ◽  
Health Protection ◽  
Wastewater Sludge ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Regulatory Decision ◽  
Sludge Disposal ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Epa

The United State Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) attempted to set health-based regulations for sludge disposal and used worst-case scenarios to estimate the detrimental health effect. In the absence of adequate information, this exercise led them to err so much on the conservative side that the regulations became unrealistic and would not have been accepted by the public. So the US EPA decided to do what was expedient – to establish regulations that allow most wastewater treatment plants to dispose of their sludges, knowing that these regulations are better than none at all. Such regulatory decision-making has ethical ramifications because it involves distributing costs and benefits between affected citizens. The principle of expediency as articulated by Earle Phelps calls for a regulator to optimize the benefits of health protection while minimizing costs within the constraints of technical feasibility. Phelps' expediency principle, proposed over fifty years ago, is still a useful application of ethics using scientific knowledge to set dynamic and yet enforceable environmental regulations. In the case of sludge disposal, the US EPA made an ethical decision based on the principle of expediency, weighing the moral good of human health protection versus the moral harm of taking wealth by requiring costly wastewater sludge treatment and disposal.

Optimal Inflation for the US Economy

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 29-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto M Billi
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

This paper studies the optimal long-run inflation rate (OIR) in a small New Keynesian model, where the only policy instrument is a short-term nominal interest rate that may occasionally run against a zero lower bound (ZLB). The model allows for worst-case scenarios of misspecification. The analysis shows first, if the government optimally commits, the OIR is below 1 percent annually. Second, if the government re-optimizes each period, the OIR rises markedly to 17 percent. Third, if the government commits only to an inertial Taylor rule, the inflation bias is eliminated at very low cost in terms of welfare for the representative household. (JEL E12, E31, E43, E52, E58)

UN Special Session on Disarmament: Opportunity for New Initiatives

1978 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane M.O. Sharp
Keyword(s):  
Special Session ◽  
International Treaties ◽  
Bargaining Process ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Negotiated Agreements ◽  
The Us ◽  
To Come ◽  
Near Future

This paper argues that the 1978 United Nations Special Session on Disarmament (UNSSOD) provides an ideal opportunity for governments to consider the feasibility of national initiatives in disarmament as distinct from relying primarily on negotiated agreements. Traditional arms control diplomacy, inadequate at best, may be completely misdirected. Instead of building confidence and reducing force levels, the bargaining process inherent in the pursuit of formal international treaties tends not only to exacerbate tensions but also to generate more armaments. Extra forces have been rationalized to support particular negotiating positions, and defense planners have been encouraged to assess military requirements in relative terms, as a function of worst-case estimates of the capabilities and intentions of potential adversaries, rather than in absolute terms, as a function of basic national security needs. An attempt is made here to establish criteria on which effective disarmament initiatives might be based and judged in the long term. While these criteria are intended to be generally applicable, the leadership for any new approach to the armaments problem will probably have to come from Washington; specific proposals thus focus on measures which appear feasible for the US in the near future, and which the Carter Administration could conceivably initiate at the UNSSOD.

scholarly journals A Computational Model for Estimating the Progression of COVID-19 Cases in the US West and East Coast Population Regions

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao-Yu Yeo ◽  
Yao-Rui Yeo ◽  
Wan-Jin Yeo
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Functional Testing ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Concern ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Us West

AbstractThe ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is of global concern and has recently emerged in the US. In this paper, we construct a stochastic variant of the SEIR model to estimate a quasi-worst-case scenario prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US West and East Coast population regions by considering the different phases of response implemented by the US as well as transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in countries that were most affected. The model is then fitted to current data and implemented using Runge-Kutta methods. Our computation results predict that the number of new cases would peak around mid-April 2020 and begin to abate by July provided that appropriate COVID-19 measures are promptly implemented and followed, and that the number of cases of COVID-19 might be significantly mitigated by having greater numbers of functional testing kits available for screening. The model is also sensitive to assigned parameter values and reflects the importance of healthcare preparedness during pandemics.

scholarly journals Differential Impact of COVID-19 Risk Factors on Ethnicities in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prashant Athavale ◽  
Vijay Kumar ◽  
Jeremy Clark ◽  
Sumona Mondal ◽  
Shantanu Sur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
National Level ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
The United States ◽  
Advanced Age ◽  
Differential Impact ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Us

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has revealed existing health inequalities in racial and ethnic minority groups in the US. This work investigates and quantifies the non-uniform effects of geographical location and other known risk factors on various ethnic groups during the COVID-19 pandemic at a national level. To quantify the geographical impact on various ethnic groups, we grouped all the states of the US. into four different regions (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West) and considered Non-Hispanic White (NHW), Non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Asian (NHA) as ethnic groups of our interest. Our analysis showed that infection and mortality among NHB and Hispanics are considerably higher than NHW. In particular, the COVID-19 infection rate in the Hispanic community was significantly higher than their population share, a phenomenon we observed across all regions in the US but is most prominent in the West. To gauge the differential impact of comorbidities on different ethnicities, we performed cross-sectional regression analyses of statewide data for COVID-19 infection and mortality for each ethnic group using advanced age, poverty, obesity, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes as risk factors. After removing the risk factors causing multicollinearity, poverty emerged as one of the independent risk factors in explaining mortality rates in NHW, NHB, and Hispanic communities. Moreover, for NHW and NHB groups, we found that obesity encapsulated the effect of several other comorbidities such as advanced age, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease. At the same time, advanced age was the most robust predictor of mortality in the Hispanic group. Our study quantifies the unique impact of various risk factors on different ethnic groups, explaining the ethnicity-specific differences observed in the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings could provide insight into focused public health strategies and interventions.

scholarly journals A Computational Model for Estimating the Progression of COVID-19 Cases in the US West and East Coasts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao-Yu Yeo ◽  
Yao-Rui Yeo ◽  
Wan-Jin Yeo
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Quality ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Functional Testing ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Concern ◽  
Us West

AbstractThe ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is of global concern and has recently emerged in the US. In this paper, we construct a stochastic variant of the SEIR model to make a quasi-worst-case scenario prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US West and East Coasts. The model is then fitted to current data and implemented using Runge-Kutta methods. Our computation results predict that the number of new cases would peak around mid-April 2000 and begin to abate by July, and that the number of cases of COVID-19 might be significantly mitigated by having greater numbers of functional testing kits available for screening. The model also showed how small changes in variables can make large differences in outcomes and highlights the importance of healthcare preparedness during pandemics.Author SummaryCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has escalated into a global pandemic and has recently emerged in the US. While some countries have managed to contain COVID-19 efficiently, other countries previously thought to have been well-prepared for outbreaks due to higher living standards and healthcare quality have witnessed an unexpected number of cases. It is currently unclear how the US can cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, especially after mishaps during the initial stages. Our study combines conditions unique to the US and transmission dynamics in regions affected most by COVID-19 to produce a quasi-worse-case scenario of COVID-19 in the US and shows the importance of healthcare preparedness during pandemics.

Pictures from an Institution

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Blaustein
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Student Organizations ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Marshall Plan ◽  
Military Government ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Postwar Europe ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
American Thought

The founding Americanist institution in postwar Europe took place in a baroque, bomb-damaged castle and had only the tenuous approval of the US military government in Austria. Leopoldskron Castle had been owned by the theater impresario Max Reinhardt before the Nazis expropriated it. The Salzburg Seminar in American Civilization, a transnational collaboration of student organizations and Christian relief agencies, repurposed the castle in 1947 to bring American thought and art to occupied Europe. Scholars, novelists, and poets carried the American word abroad and, in turn, were shaped by their encounters in the ruins. This chapter is the story of that institution’s early years, perched between the imaginary geography of Mitteleuropa and the political geography of the Cold War. The Seminar preceded the Marshall Plan, and its previously unexplored archives yield dramas of denazification, displacement, and the bifurcation of Europe.

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