A Computational Model for Estimating the Progression of COVID-19 Cases in the US West and East Coasts

AbstractThe ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is of global concern and has recently emerged in the US. In this paper, we construct a stochastic variant of the SEIR model to make a quasi-worst-case scenario prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US West and East Coasts. The model is then fitted to current data and implemented using Runge-Kutta methods. Our computation results predict that the number of new cases would peak around mid-April 2000 and begin to abate by July, and that the number of cases of COVID-19 might be significantly mitigated by having greater numbers of functional testing kits available for screening. The model also showed how small changes in variables can make large differences in outcomes and highlights the importance of healthcare preparedness during pandemics.Author SummaryCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has escalated into a global pandemic and has recently emerged in the US. While some countries have managed to contain COVID-19 efficiently, other countries previously thought to have been well-prepared for outbreaks due to higher living standards and healthcare quality have witnessed an unexpected number of cases. It is currently unclear how the US can cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, especially after mishaps during the initial stages. Our study combines conditions unique to the US and transmission dynamics in regions affected most by COVID-19 to produce a quasi-worse-case scenario of COVID-19 in the US and shows the importance of healthcare preparedness during pandemics.

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A Computational Model for Estimating the Progression of COVID-19 Cases in the US West and East Coast Population Regions

Experimental Results ◽

10.1017/exp.2020.45 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1 ◽

Author(s):

Yao-Yu Yeo ◽

Yao-Rui Yeo ◽

Wan-Jin Yeo

Keyword(s):

East Coast ◽

Current Data ◽

Transmission Dynamics ◽

Functional Testing ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

The Us ◽

Global Concern ◽

Parameter Values ◽

Us West

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COVID-19, an Opportunity for Developing Countries?

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2020.548708 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Lee Smith ◽

Nicola Veronese ◽

Vincenzo Racalbuto ◽

Damiano Pizzol

Keyword(s):

Low Income ◽

Large Scale ◽

World Health ◽

Low Income Countries ◽

Prevention Measures ◽

Viral Reservoirs ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Global Pandemic ◽

Health Organization

The COVID-19 outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) as global pandemic in March 2020. Considering the necessity to implement rapid response to control the pandemic and the fragility and the state of need of low income countries, it will be mandatory to develop a global approach in order to reduce the spread of infection and the creation of community viral reservoirs. So far, we could hypothesize a worst case scenario in which when the COVID-19 outbreak hits a peak in Africa and in low-income countries, the majority of such countries will be unprepared, with low resources allocated for affording the viral emergency and the consequences will be catastrophic with no lesson learnt. In the best case scenario, the COVID-19 will not affect Africa or South America on a large scale and, if the prevention measures will be implemented, we could register a lower incidence of hygiene linked diseases that still represent leading causes of death.

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The best-case heuristic in risk prediction: Hopes and fears in a global health pandemic (COVID-19)

10.31234/osf.io/pcj4f ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Hallgeir Sjåstad ◽

Jay Joseph Van Bavel

Keyword(s):

Risk Prediction ◽

Infection Risk ◽

Policy Support ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Worst Case Scenario ◽

Global Pandemic ◽

Average Person ◽

Precautionary Action ◽

Heuristic Study

During the current global pandemic (Coronavirus/COVID-19), policy-makers and citizens in numerous countries have been unprepared to respond, or been responding too late. Why are so many people hesitant to take precautionary action? In three experiments on health risk prediction (N = 2,300 Americans), we identified two kinds of relative optimism. Participants reported their "most realistic" prediction of infection risk for themselves and the average person, and then made similar predictions either in a best-case scenario or a worst-case scenario. Consistent with a best-case heuristic, Study 1 showed that participants made "realistic" predictions that were closer to their own best-case scenario than to their worst-case scenario. The infection risk was also rated as lower for oneself than for the average person in all three scenarios, extending classic findings of comparative optimism to a broader space of possible outcomes. Study 2 was a pre-registered direct replication, in which both kinds of optimism were successfully replicated in a large representative sample. Correlational analyses revealed that higher risk predictions were associated with higher levels of emotional distress, but also with pro-social intentions and stronger support of public health lockdown policies. Although a clear (bipartisan) majority supported the lockdown policies, right-leaning conservatives made lower risk predictions and expressed lower policy support than left-leaning liberals. Resistance to lockdown policies was also associated with the belief in national superiority in pandemic preparedness. Study 3 was a pre-registered conceptual replication, finding that the best-case heuristic generalized to predicted waiting time for a COVID-19 vaccine and predicted relationship satisfaction.

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Effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Heloderma alvarezi (Squamata, Helodermatidae)

ZooKeys ◽

10.3897/zookeys.1070.69186 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1070 ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Aarón Gómez-Cruz ◽

Nancy G. Santos-Hernández ◽

José Alberto Cruz ◽

Daniel Ariano-Sánchez ◽

Christian Ruiz-Castillejos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Current Data ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Human Footprint ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The Impact

Climate change represents a real threat to biodiversity conservation worldwide. Although the effects on several species of conservation priority are known, comprehensive information about the impact of climate change on reptile populations is lacking. In the present study, we analyze outcomes on the potential distribution of the black beaded lizard (Heloderma alvarezi Bogert & Martin del Campo, 1956) under global warming scenarios. Its potential distribution, at present and in projections for the years 2050 and 2070, under both optimistic and pessimistic climate change forecasts, were computed using current data records and seven bioclimatic variables. General results predict a shift in the future potential distribution of H. alvarezi due to temperature increase. The optimistic scenario (4.5 W/m2) for 2070 suggests an enlargement in the species’ distribution as a response to the availability of new areas of suitable habitat. On the contrary, the worst-case scenario (7 W/m2) shows a distribution decrease by 65%. Moreover, the range distribution of H. alvarezi is directly related to the human footprint, which consequently could magnify negative outcomes for this species. Our research elucidates the importance of conservation strategies to prevent the extinction of the black beaded lizard, especially considering that this species is highly threatened by aversive hunting.

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Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e527312012-643 ◽

2008 ◽

Author(s):

Sonia Savelli ◽

Susan Joslyn ◽

Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽

Queena Chen

Keyword(s):

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Worst Case Scenario ◽

Anchoring Effects

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Too WEIRD, Too Fast: Preprints about COVID-19 in the Psychological Sciences

10.31234/osf.io/5w7du ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Arathy Puthillam

Keyword(s):

Overwhelming Majority ◽

Global Pandemic ◽

The Us ◽

The World ◽

The Face ◽

Conducting Research ◽

Psychological Studies

That American and European participants are overrepresented in psychological studies has been previously established. In addition, researchers also often tend to be similarly homogenous. This continues to be alarming, especially given that this research is being used to inform policies across the world. In the face of a global pandemic where behavioral scientists propose solutions, we ask who is conducting research and on what samples. Forty papers on COVID-19 published in PsyArxiV were analyzed; the nationalities of the authors and the samples they recruited were assessed. Findings suggest that an overwhelming majority of the samples recruited were from the US and the authors were based in US and German institutions. Next, men constituted a large proportion of primary and sole authors. The implications of these findings are discussed.

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EXPEDITION TO MALI, 2020

Journal of the Institute of Oriental Studies RAS ◽

10.31696/2618-7302-2020-3-12-28 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 12-28

Author(s):

D. V. Vaniukova ◽

◽

P. A. Kutsenkov ◽

Keyword(s):

Mass Murder ◽

The State ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Traditional Art ◽

Peter The Great ◽

State Museum ◽

Bobo Dioulasso ◽

Oriental Studies ◽

The Village

The research expedition of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences has been working in Mali since 2015. Since 2017, it has been attended by employees of the State Museum of the East. The task of the expedition is to study the transformation of traditional Dogon culture in the context of globalization, as well as to collect ethnographic information (life, customs, features of the traditional social and political structure); to collect oral historical legends; to study the history, existence, and transformation of artistic tradition in the villages of the Dogon Country in modern conditions; collecting items of Ethnography and art to add to the collection of the African collection of the. Peter the Great Museum (Kunstkamera, Saint Petersburg) and the State Museum of Oriental Arts (Moscow). The plan of the expedition in January 2020 included additional items, namely, the study of the functioning of the antique market in Mali (the “path” of things from villages to cities, which is important for attributing works of traditional art). The geography of our research was significantly expanded to the regions of Sikasso and Koulikoro in Mali, as well as to the city of Bobo-Dioulasso and its surroundings in Burkina Faso, which is related to the study of migrations to the Bandiagara Highlands. In addition, the plan of the expedition included organization of a photo exhibition in the Museum of the village of Endé and some educational projects. Unfortunately, after the mass murder in March 2019 in the village of Ogossogou-Pel, where more than one hundred and seventy people were killed, events in the Dogon Country began to develop in the worst-case scenario: The incessant provocations after that revived the old feud between the Pel (Fulbe) pastoralists and the Dogon farmers. So far, this hostility and mutual distrust has not yet developed into a full-scale ethnic conflict, but, unfortunately, such a development now seems quite likely.

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Risk-Based Robust Bidding Strategies for EVs’ Aggregators in Day-ahead Markets with Uncertainty

10.36227/techrxiv.12771257 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ahmed Abdelmoaty ◽

Wessam Mesbah ◽

Mohammad A. M. Abdel-Aal ◽

Ali T. Alawami

Keyword(s):

Robust Optimization ◽

Electricity Market ◽

Real Life ◽

Optimization Approach ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Bidding Strategies ◽

Wind Generators ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Optimal Bidding

In the recent electricity market framework, the profit of the generation companies depends on the decision of the operator on the schedule of its units, the energy price, and the optimal bidding strategies. Due to the expanded integration of uncertain renewable generators which is highly intermittent such as wind plants, the coordination with other facilities to mitigate the risks of imbalances is mandatory. Accordingly, coordination of wind generators with the evolutionary Electric Vehicles (EVs) is expected to boost the performance of the grid. In this paper, we propose a robust optimization approach for the coordination between the wind-thermal generators and the EVs in a virtual<br>power plant (VPP) environment. The objective of maximizing the profit of the VPP Operator (VPPO) is studied. The optimal bidding strategy of the VPPO in the day-ahead market under uncertainties of wind power, energy<br>prices, imbalance prices, and demand is obtained for the worst case scenario. A case study is conducted to assess the e?effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of the VPPO's profit. A comparison between the proposed model and the scenario-based optimization was introduced. Our results confirmed that, although the conservative behavior of the worst-case robust optimization model, it helps the decision maker from the fluctuations of the uncertain parameters involved in the production and bidding processes. In addition, robust optimization is a more tractable problem and does not suffer from<br>the high computation burden associated with scenario-based stochastic programming. This makes it more practical for real-life scenarios.<br>

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The Unparalleled Growth of COVID-19 Publications (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.21903 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Paul Fontelo ◽

Mrigendra Bastola ◽

Craig Locatis ◽

Fang Liu

Keyword(s):

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽

Evidence Base ◽

Research Papers ◽

Global Pandemic ◽

The Us ◽

International Collaborative ◽

Number Of Publications ◽

Collaborative Publishing

UNSTRUCTURED The global pandemic of COVID-19 has generated an unprecedented number of research papers from clinicians and scientists worldwide. We searched PubMed for articles on coronaviruses from 1970 to June 2020. Surges of publications occurred in 2003 from SARS and, again in 2012 from MERS. Although the name COVID-19, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was only announced by WHO in February 2020, the number of publications has already exceeded 16000 by June this year. China and the US lead in publications, but a significant number also come from countries hardest hit by the illness. International collaborative publishing is significant. Since these publications are generally free to access worldwide, it provides a rich evidence base for clinicians and scientists combatting the COVID-19 pandemic.

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A Thermally Conductive Pt/AAO Catalyst for Hydrogen Passive Autocatalytic Recombination

Catalysts ◽

10.3390/catal11040491 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 491

Author(s):

Alina E. Kozhukhova ◽

Stephanus P. du Preez ◽

Aleksander A. Malakhov ◽

Dmitri G. Bessarabov

Keyword(s):

Electron Microscopy ◽

Particle Size ◽

Combustion Temperature ◽

Volume Fraction ◽

Morphological Characteristics ◽

Al Alloy ◽

Impregnation Method ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Thermal Distribution

In this study, a Pt/anodized aluminum oxide (AAO) catalyst was prepared by the anodization of an Al alloy (Al6082, 97.5% Al), followed by the incorporation of Pt via an incipient wet impregnation method. Then, the Pt/AAO catalyst was evaluated for autocatalytic hydrogen recombination. The Pt/AAO catalyst’s morphological characteristics were determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The average Pt particle size was determined to be 3.0 ± 0.6 nm. This Pt/AAO catalyst was tested for the combustion of lean hydrogen (0.5–4 vol% H2 in the air) in a recombiner section testing station. The thermal distribution throughout the catalytic surface was investigated at 3 vol% hydrogen (H2) using an infrared camera. The Al/AAO system had a high thermal conductivity, which prevents the formation of hotspots (areas where localized surface temperature is higher than an average temperature across the entire catalyst surface). In turn, the Pt stability was enhanced during catalytic hydrogen combustion (CHC). A temperature gradient over 70 mm of the Pt/AAO catalyst was 23 °C and 42 °C for catalysts with uniform and nonuniform (worst-case scenario) Pt distributions. The commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code STAR-CCM+ was used to compare the experimentally observed and numerically simulated thermal distribution of the Pt/AAO catalyst. The effect of the initial H2 volume fraction on the combustion temperature and conversion of H2 was investigated. The activation energy for CHC on the Pt/AAO catalyst was 19.2 kJ/mol. Prolonged CHC was performed to assess the durability (reactive metal stability and catalytic activity) of the Pt/AAO catalyst. A stable combustion temperature of 162.8 ± 8.0 °C was maintained over 530 h of CHC. To confirm that Pt aggregation was avoided, the Pt particle size and distribution were determined by TEM before and after prolonged CHC.

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