scholarly journals 2007–2012 Food Price Spikes and Crisis—A Decade and a Half Later

2021 ◽  
pp. 139-195
Author(s):  
Uma Lele ◽  
Manmohan Agarwal ◽  
Sambuddha Goswami
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
The Us ◽  
Biofuel Policies ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Perfect Storm

The food price crisis, which intermittently lasted from 2006 to about 2012–13, raised a number of issues about the roles of markets and states in ensuring food security at home and globally. This issue has arisen once again in 2020, as a result of COVID-19, undoing years of progress, but it is being resolved differently than the earlier crisis. There are fewer trade restrictions. Among the issues that the food price crisis raised was the domino effect of the US biofuel policies on maize, wheat, and rice prices in 2007–8, leading to a “perfect storm,” and policy responses of large exporters, leading to key debates about global interdependence, national vs. global objectives, and policy measures adopted by some countries—some of these debates have remained unresolved. Implications for the COVID-19 pandemic and the post-COVID-19 world are drawn in the chapter, regarding trade vs. stabilization, information systems, safety nets, and investment strategies.

scholarly journals The macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro: a Bayesian VARX approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordana Djurovic ◽  
Vasilije Djurovic ◽  
Martin M. Bojaj
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Health Expenditures ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Policy Measures

Abstract This study examines, diagnoses, and assesses appropriate macroeconomic policy responses of the Montenegrin Government to the outbreak of COVID-19. The model econometrically measures the macroeconomic costs using a Bayesian VARX Litterman/Minessota prior to the pandemic disease in terms of demand and supply loss due to illness and closed activities and their effects on GDP growth in various pandemic scenarios. We explore five economic scenarios—shocks—using the available data from January 2006 to December 2019, following real out-of-sample forecasts generated from January 2020 to December 2020. Sensitivity scenarios spanning January 2020 to June 2020 from ± 10 to ± 60% were analyzed. We observed what happens to the supply and demand sides, namely, GDP, tourism, capital stock, human capital, health expenditures, economic freedom, and unemployment. The results show a toll on the GDP, tourism, unemployment, capital stock, and especially human capital for 2020. The recommended policy measures are public finance spending initiatives focused on securing employment and keeping highly qualified staff in Montenegrin companies. Considering all uncertainties, the rebound of the Montenegrin economy could take a few years to reach pre-COVID 19 output levels.

scholarly journals The Impact of Policy Measures on Human Mobility, COVID-19 Cases, and Mortality in the US: A Spatiotemporal Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 996
Author(s):  
Yun Li ◽  
Moming Li ◽  
Megan Rice ◽  
Haoyuan Zhang ◽  
Dexuan Sha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Social distancing policies have been regarded as effective in containing the rapid spread of COVID-19. However, there is a limited understanding of policy effectiveness from a spatiotemporal perspective. This study integrates geographical, demographical, and other key factors into a regression-based event study framework, to assess the effectiveness of seven major policies on human mobility and COVID-19 case growth rates, with a spatiotemporal emphasis. Our results demonstrate that stay-at-home orders, workplace closures, and public information campaigns were effective in decreasing the confirmed case growth rate. For stay-at-home orders and workplace closures, these changes were associated with significant decreases (p < 0.05) in mobility. Public information campaigns did not see these same mobility trends, but the growth rate still decreased significantly in all analysis periods (p < 0.01). Stay-at-home orders and international/national travel controls had limited mitigation effects on the death case growth rate (p < 0.1). The relationships between policies, mobility, and epidemiological metrics allowed us to evaluate the effectiveness of each policy and gave us insight into the spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms by which these measures work. Our analysis will provide policymakers with better knowledge regarding the effectiveness of measures in space–time disaggregation.

Crude Oil Price and Food Security Related Variables in Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu ◽  
Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

Objective - This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between crude oil price and food security related variables (crude palm oil price, exchange rate, food import, food price index, food production index, income per capita and government development expenditure) in Malaysia using a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. Methodology/Technique - The data covered the period of 1980-2014. Impulse response functions (IRFs) was applied to examine what will be the results of crude oil price changes to the variables in the model. To explore the impact of variation in crude oil prices on the selected food security related variables forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) was employed. Findings - Findings from IRFs suggest there are positive effects of oil price changes on food import and food price index. The VDC analyses suggest that crude oil price changes have relatively largest impact on real crude palm oil price, food import and food price index. This study would suggest to revisiting the formulation of food price policy by including appropriate weight of crude oil price volatility. In terms of crude oil palm price determination, the volatility of crude oil prices should be taken into account. Overdependence on food imports also needs to be reduced. Novelty - As the largest response of crude oil price volatility on related food security variables food vouchers can be implemented. Food vouchers have advantages compared to direct cash transfers since it can be targeted and can be restricted to certain types of products and group of people. Hence, it can act as a better aid compared cash transfers. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Crude oil price, Food security related variables, IRF, VAR, VDC

The Effects of Currency Protectionism on the Exports of the Trade Partners - A Composite Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Emmanouil Karakostas
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Main Question ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Currency Competition ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
Quantitative Tool

The competitive exchange rate devaluation (or currency protectionism) is a phenomenon of global political economy, which goes hand in hand with trade activities. The causes, consequences and effects of monetary protectionism for the concerned countries have been thoroughly analyzed on the basis of existing literature. An important element of analysis is the different effects of the implementation of protectionist policy measures on trading partners. An example of currency protectionism nowadays is the currency competition between the US and China. Although the US is the "hegemon" of the modern international economic-political system, China's continuous, upward and rapid economic course has weakened the primacy of the US, with consequences that are perceived in the global economic system. Of course, China has been accused of practices of economic "mercantilism." On the basis of these mercantilist accusations, a kind of war broke out with the US. But the main question is this: how are the exports of trading partners affected by this currency competition? To be able to answer this question more fully, a quantitative tool should be created that can interpret the effects of currency competition on trading partners. This study will try answering this question by using the case study of U.S. - China currency competition. The methodology applied is the creation of a Composite Index.

Climate Change And Food Security In Nepal

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 9-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krishna Prasad Pant
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Farm Production ◽  
Agriculture And Environment ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Government

Climate change is posing a threat on present and future food security in low income countries. But, the actual effect of the climate change on food security is not known. Using secondary data reported by the government, the paper examines the effects of climate change on food security in Nepal in the context of policies of commercialization of farm production. Statistical analysis is used to delineate the situation of food security in the country and regression analysis for exploring the effects of global warming on domestic production of major cereals. The results are discussed at global, national, household and individual levels empirically and qualitatively. The results suggest that a rise in minimum temperature decreases the productivity of rice increasing threat of food insecurity. The paper suggests some policy measures for improving food security situation in the country and open up some areas for further research. The Journal of Agriculture and Environment Vol:13, Jun.2012, Page 9-19 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/aej.v13i0.7582

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI IMPOR BERAS DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-201
Author(s):  
Yona Namira ◽  
Iskandar Andi Nuhung ◽  
Mudatsir Najamuddin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
The Us ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Spss Software

This study aims to 1) identify factors that affect the import of rice in Indonesia 2) analyze the influence of these factors on imports of rice in Indonesia. The data used in this research are time series data from 1994 to 2013 from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Commerce, National Logistics Agency (Bulog), and Bank Indonesia. Multiple linear regression through SPSS software version 21 was employed to analyze the data. The test results together indicated the variables of productions, consumptions, stocks of rice, domestic rice prices, international rice prices and the rupiah against the US dollar affect the imports of rice in Indonesia.

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