The Possibility of Temporal Bias

2021 ◽  
pp. 246-280
Author(s):  
Dale Dorsey
Keyword(s):  
The Past ◽  
Prudential Rationality ◽  
The Future ◽  
Near Future ◽  
David Brink ◽  
Far Future ◽  
Temporal Bias

This chapter discusses whether prudential rationality ought to permit of temporal biases: biases toward goods in the near future in comparison to the far future, and goods in the future in comparison to the past. I argue that there are strong rationales for such biases and that extant arguments offered by Meghan Sullivan, David Brink, Meghan Sullivan and Preston Greene, and Tom Dougherty against such biases fail.

Memory of Futures

KronoScope ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Adam
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Modification ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
The Other ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Memory Aids ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
The One ◽  
Far Future

AbstractWe think of memories as being focused on the past. However, our ability to move freely in the temporal realm of past, present and future is far more complex and sophisticated than commonsense would suggest. In this paper I am concerned with our capacity to produce and extend ourselves into the far future, for example through nuclear power or the genetic modification of food, on the one hand, and our inability to know the potential, diverse and multiple outcomes of this technologically constituted futurity, on the other. I focus on this discrepancy in order to explore what conceptual tools are available to us to take account of long-term futures produced by the industrial way of life. And I identify some historical approaches to the future on the assumption that the past may well hold vital clues for today's dilemma, hence my proposal to engage in 'memory of futures'. I conclude by considering the potential of 'memory aids for the future' as a means to better encompass in contemporary concerns the long-term futures of our making.

scholarly journals A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (8) ◽  
pp. E1740-E1748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Thorstad ◽  
Phillip Wolff
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Future Thinking ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Far Future

We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people’s thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people’s tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people’s tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

Aeronautics-1903; aerospace-2003; ? ? 2103

2005 ◽  
Vol 219 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-260
Author(s):  
J E Allen
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
Energy Substitution ◽  
The Future ◽  
Manned Flight ◽  
Aeronautical Engineering ◽  
Wilbur Wright ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Rare Opportunity

The centenary of the first manned flight was a unique occasion permitting a rare opportunity to range far into both the past and the future. Most of aeronautics must inevitably be focussed on the near future and immediate actions. However, there are some very long-term underlying issues which are invisible from a day-to-day perspective, but which should not be overlooked as they can be used very often to guide decisions that might otherwise be unsound. In Part 1, the paper reviews the major breakthroughs that have impelled aeronautics along a startling trajectory of success, with some mention of the uncertain beginnings, when even Wilbur Wright considered that all his aerodynamic theories were in a muddle. In that spirit, in Part 2, some attempts are made to anticipate possible breakthroughs that might happen in the 21st century. However, aeronautics does not stand alone. Considerations, such as other transport modes, energy substitution, non-vehicular transport, and the consequences of major global political alignments, will be reviewed in order to seek new aeronautical challenges of the future. Some other long-term, but non-aeronautical engineering, initiatives relevant to the IMechE are introduced and discussed in the appendix

scholarly journals An Application of ARIMA Model to Forecast the Dynamics of COVID-19 Epidemic in India

2021 ◽  
pp. 097215092098865
Author(s):  
Rupinder Katoch ◽  
Arpit Sidhu
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
National Level ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Final Size ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Near Future

The swiftly growing and overwhelming epidemic in India has intensified the question: What will the trend and magnitude of impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) be in India in the near future? To answer the present question, the study requires ample historical data to make an accurate forecast of the blowout of expected confirmed cases. All at once, no prediction can be certain as the past seldom reiterates itself in the future likewise. Besides, forecasts are influenced by a number of factors like reliability of the data and psychological factors like perception and reaction of the people to the hazards arising from the epidemic. The present study presents a simple but powerful and objective, that is, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach, to analyse the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in India in the time window 30 January 2020 to 16 September 2020 and to predict the final size and trend of the epidemic over the period after 16 September 2020 with Indian epidemiological data at national and state levels. With the assumption that the data that have been used are reliable and that the future will continue to track the same outline as in the past, underlying forecasts based on ARIMA model suggest an unending increase in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in India in the near future. The present article suggests varying epidemic’s inflection point and final size for underlying states and for the mainland, India. The final size at national level is expected to reach 25,669,294 in the next 230 days, with infection point that can be expected to be projected only on 23 April 2021. The study has enormous potential to plan and make decisions to control the further spread of epidemic in India and provides objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the coming days corresponding to the respective COVID periods of the underlying regions.

What the Future May Hold for the Deaf-Blind Child

1972 ◽  
Vol 66 (10) ◽  
pp. 349-360
Author(s):  
Harry J. Spar
Keyword(s):  
Special Education ◽  
Hard Work ◽  
Good Prospect ◽  
Blind Child ◽  
The Past ◽  
Blind Children ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Blind Persons ◽  
Near Future

□ The development of special education and rehabilitation for deaf-blind persons is still many years behind the stage reached for other handicapped groups. Much of the development has taken place within the past several years. However, enough has already been accomplished to hold good promise for the years ahead; and while we cannot be complacent about expanded and improved opportunities now available for deaf-blind persons, we can take encouragement from the fact that, considering what has been achieved and what can be expected in the near future, a deaf-blind child today enjoys a reasonably good prospect for finding an acceptable place for himself in the world when he reaches adulthood. With continuing faith, hard work, and patience we may hope that, within our lifetime, most deaf-blind children will enjoy opportunities and choices for their future not too greatly different from those enjoyed by their nonhandicapped peers.

scholarly journals Luister na die storie van die kerk: Riglyne vanuit ’n narratief-hermeneutiese perspektief

2003 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yolanda Dreyer
Keyword(s):  
Social Constructionist ◽  
Collective Memories ◽  
Narrative Strategy ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Self Actualization ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Church ◽  
Narrative Hermeneutics

Listening to the story of the church: Guidelines from a narrative hermeneutical perspectiveA church as a denominational entity cannot but contemplate where it would like to be in the near future. Reasons for this are the losses of the past, the issues of the present and the uncertainties of the future. In the article this matter is approached from a narrative hermeneutical perspective within the framework of a social constructionist model. The focus is on: collective memories, the different emphases of narratology and narrative hermeneutics, the dialectic between foundational myths and everyday stories of people’s lives, the recollection of memories within a temporal framework, grand narratives and contra narratives, as well as the relationship between fiction and history. The aim of the article is to show how narrative strategy pertains to engaged hermeneutics and enhances self-actualization.

scholarly journals Behoud in situ, of wat doen we als alles op is?

Paleo-aktueel ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 73-81
Author(s):  
Froukje Veenman
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Archaeological Sites ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
To Come ◽  
Near Future

Out of Archaeology. Even if we may still hope to decrease our ecological footprint in the years to come, our archaeological footprint has increased rapidly over the past years. We still discover, map and excavate archaeological sites and patterns, but at the same time our archaeological ‘stock’ will decrease dramatically. Maybe all that we will have left in the near future in the Netherlands will be restricted to some archaeological reserves, which will be strictly protected areas, with no possibilities for excavation. A picture of the future (2054) is outlined in this article. We have strived to reserve (preserve?) archaeological resources since 2007, but what was actually happening in the field in the first quarter of the 21st century? And what if we run out of archaeology?

Confronting horror, embracing fantasy: A conversation about Lovecraft Country and radical imagination in higher education

2022 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-85
Author(s):  
Jordan Harper ◽  
Henry Jenkins
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Education Policy ◽  
Higher Education Policy ◽  
Education Faculty ◽  
Pivotal Point ◽  
Historical Reality ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
The University ◽  
Far Future

Higher education is at a pivotal point of reflection due to the forces of neoliberalism, anti-Blackness, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the past, higher education has overlooked the university’s far future, opting to focus on readily conspicuous change. Along with this disregarded conversation, these crises present higher education faculty, administrators, and staff an opportunity to critically re-think the future of higher education given what we know now and what we do not. In this dialogic essay between a higher education policy doctoral student and a tenured media and communications professor, the authors peer into the hit HBO series Lovecraft Country and its underlying themes of horror, fantasy, and historical reality to extract vital lessons for higher education. The authors further participate in conversations about utilizing world and storymaking tactics to help higher education envision the university of the future—a future that is radical and boundless.

scholarly journals Predicting long-term hydrological change caused by climate shifting in the 21st Century in the headwater area of the Yellow River Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingyi Hu ◽  
Yiping Wu ◽  
Pengcheng Sun ◽  
Fubo Zhao ◽  
Ke Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Yellow River Basin ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is one of the amplifiers of global climate change. The headwater area of the Yellow River Basin (HYRB) on the QTP is the dominant water source region for the whole Yellow River Basin (YRB). However, the sensitive responses of hydrological processes to the intensifying climate change are exerting high uncertainties to the water cycle in the HYRB. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential climate change under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and their hydrological impacts in this region using the ensemble climate data from eight general circulation models (GCMs) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Compared to the baseline (1976–2015), the projected climate indicated a rise of 7.3–7.8% in annual precipitation, 1.3–1.9°C in maximum air temperature, and 1.2–1.8°C in minimum air temperature during the near future period (2020–2059), and an increment of 9.0–17.9%, 1.5–4.5°C, and 1.3–4.5°C in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, during the far future period (2060–2099). The well-simulated SWAT modeling results suggested that due to a wetter and warmer climate, annual average actual evapotranspiration (AET) would increase obviously in the future (31.9–35.3% during the near future and 33.5–54.3% during the far future), which might cause a slight decrease in soil water. Water yield would decrease by 16.5–20.1% during the near future period, implying a worsening water crisis in the future. Till the end of this century, driven by the increased precipitation, water yield would no longer continue to decrease, with a decline by 15–19.5%. Overall, this study can not only provide scientific understanding of the hydrological responses to the future climate in both semi-arid and alpine areas, but also contribute to the decision support for sustainable development of water resources and protection of eco-environment in the HYRB.

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL EXTREMES IN BEAS BASIN OVER HISTORIC, PRESENT AND FUTURE SCENARIO

2020 ◽  
Vol XLIII-B5-2020 ◽  
pp. 139-147
Author(s):  
V. Sharma ◽  
B. R. Nikam ◽  
P. K. Thakur ◽  
V. Garg ◽  
S. P. Aggarwal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Future Time ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Future Time Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
Model Efficiency ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Abstract. The North West Himalayan basins have always been prone to hydro-meteorological disasters. Among them Beas Basin is one of the highly affected basins. Beas basin is prone to cloudburst which causes huge loss to life and property every year. Increase in these devastating events have been noticed in the recent years. Climatic change is considered as the major driver for this increased occurrence of these events in the recent past. The analysis of long-term hydrological extremes over the basin will help in understanding the pattern of the hydro-meteorological extremes and also predicting its nature in near and far future. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at the grid size of 0.025° × 0.025° has been used in the present study, for simulating the hydrological behaviour of the Beas Basin. The parameterization of the model inputs is derived from Remote Sensing based and field observed datasets. The model was forced with meteorological dataset of ERA-Interim for the past and present time period and CORDEX dataset for the future time period. The model was calibrated using observed discharge data of Nadaun and Sujanpur stations. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency of calibrated model was achieved to be 0.77 and 0.72 and coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.80 and 0.72, respectively. The validation results of the model for the same stations shows the model efficiency to be 0.73 and 0.74 with coefficient of determination (R2) as 0.67 and 0.82, respectively. The well calibrated model was used to simulate the hydrological behaviour of historic period (1979–2000), present period (2001–2017), near future period (2018–2050) and far future period (2051–2099). The exceedance probability curve method has been utilized in estimating the flood peak value for the future time period. The flood peak discharge value for the future time period comes out to be 1050 m3/s. The hydro-meteorological extremes rate per year in each period was found to be 9, 9, 12 and 14, respectively. The hydro-meteorological extremes rate is showing increasing trend in near future and very high increase in far future. The study highlights the probability of occurrence of catastrophic events in coming future. The methodology and results of the present study can be beneficial for sustainable development of the basin to counter the effect of probable hydro-meteorological extremes in coming future.

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