Inference in the Real World

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amos Golan
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Simple Formulation ◽  
Exact Inference ◽  
Size Distribution Of Firms ◽  
Level Information ◽  
Theoretical Application ◽  
Available Information

In this chapter I provide a mix of detailed cross-disciplinary examples to illustrate the method in real-world settings. The examples in this chapter illustrate modeling and inference in a relatively simple set of problems. After exploring single-parameter applications under very limited information, I consider multi-parameter problems, beginning with the inference of a two-parameter size distribution of firms. This demonstrates a main characteristic of social science problems where the available information is most often insufficient to provide a very exact inference. Then a simple ecological example is formulated. It provides an interesting theoretical application of analyzing complex ecological networks based on very limited macro-level information. The chapter concludes with a simple formulation of efficient network and information aggregation. A few shorter examples are provided as well.

scholarly journals DPUK Cohort Explorer: An Interactive Visualisation Tool

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura North
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Data Transfer ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
World Data ◽  
Visualisation Tool ◽  
Field Level ◽  
Level Information ◽  
Data Portal ◽  
Portal Website ◽  
Interactive Visualisation

IntroductionThe Dementias Platform UK (DPUK) Cohort Explorer is an interactive, online visualisation tool that allows users to explore data for a number of DPUK cohorts. Over 30 variables across cohorts have been harmonised, including information on demographics, lifestyle, cognition, health, and genetic biomarkers. Objectives and ApproachThe tool has been developed to complement existing DPUK cohort metadata to provide a visual representation of participant numbers and field-level information for a selection of cohorts. This enables users to determine a cohort’s eligibility before applying for access to a cohort’s data, and aid in shaping potential hypotheses. Developed using Microsoft PowerBI, the Explorer hosts a subset of the cohort’s baseline, harmonised data, allowing a user to interrogate the visualisations of the uploaded data in a secure manner on the DPUK Data Portal website. Visualisations are linked so that participant numbers and distributions can be explored interactively. ResultsThis approach allows the user to explore the harmonised data across a number of cohorts simultaneously whilst setting and adjusting filters that are of interest to the user’s search criteria. This provides a better understanding of the real-world data and enables the user to determine the feasibility of each cohort for potential studies, whilst facilitating meaningful comparisons across cohorts. The tool currently visualises five DPUK cohorts with a total of 82,391 participants, however it is being incrementally developed with more cohorts being added continually. Conclusion / ImplicationsBy combing an easy-to-use, interactive dashboard with harmonised sets of real-world data, the tool allows the user to explore, interrogate and better understand field-level information in a secure manner with zero data transfer. This provides more insight for the user when applying for access to a cohort dataset using the DPUK Data Portal and may help the user to make more informed decisions and/or hypotheses.

Sound is Not a Simulation

2010 ◽  
pp. 44-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda O Keeffe
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Virtual World ◽  
Computer Game ◽  
Urban Spaces ◽  
Social Meaning ◽  
Social Significance ◽  
The Social ◽  
Game Player ◽  
Prior Investigation

In order to design a computer game soundscape that allows a game player to feel immersed in their virtual world, we must understand how we navigate and understand the real world soundscape. In this chapter I will explore how sound, particularly in urban spaces, is increasingly categorised as noise, ignoring both the social significance of any soundscape and how we use sound to interpret and negotiate space. I will explore innovative methodologies for identifying an individual’s perception of soundscapes. Designing virtual soundscapes without prior investigation into their cultural and social meaning could prove problematic.

scholarly journals Economic interventions to ameliorate the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and health: an international comparison

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaun Danielli ◽  
Raman Patria ◽  
Patrice Donnelly ◽  
Hutan Ashrafian ◽  
Ara Darzi
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
International Comparison ◽  
Real World ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Economic Collapse ◽  
Available Information ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic continues to challenge governments and policymakers worldwide. They have rightfully prioritised reducing the spread of the virus through social distancing interventions. However, shuttered business and widespread restrictions on travel and mobility have led to an economic collapse with increasing uncertainty of how quickly recovery will be achieved. Methods The authors carried out a review of publicly available information on the economic intervention’s countries have put in place to ameliorate the impact of COVID-19. Results The strategies and scale of economic interventions have been broad, ranging from 2.5% to a reported 50% of Gross Domestic Product. Conclusions Numerous countries are beginning to ease lockdown restrictions and restart economies in different ways. There is therefore evolving, real-world data that should be used dynamically by governments and policymakers. The strategies on restarting the economy must be balanced against the uncertainty of a possible second wave of COVID-19. A nuanced approach to easing restrictions needs to take into account not only immediate risk to life but longer-term risks of widening inequalities and falling life expectancy.

Business Applications of Social Agent-Based Simulation

2000 ◽  
Vol 03 (01n04) ◽  
pp. 451-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Bonabeau
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Real World ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Theme Park ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Agent ◽  
Business Applications ◽  
Market Simulation

Agent-based simulation is a powerful simulation modeling technique that has seen a number of applications in the last five years, including applications to real-world business problems. In this chapter I introduce agent-based simulation and review three applications to business problems: a theme park simulation, a stock market simulation, and a bankwide simulation.

Treatment patterns among patients with higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes in a real-world setting: Electronic medical record (EMR)-based data.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (8_suppl) ◽  
pp. 247-247
Author(s):  
Bruce Jeffrey Dezube ◽  
Jill Bell ◽  
Aaron Galaznik ◽  
Eileen Farrelly ◽  
Marlo Blazer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Index Date ◽  
Treatment Guidelines ◽  
Specific Treatment ◽  
Cell Transplant ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Nccn Guidelines ◽  
Real World Setting

247 Background: Treatment decisions in MDS are based on a prognostic scoring system that divides pts into five distinct risk categories (NCCN 2016). Treatment guidelines for HR MDS pts include hypomethylating agents (HMAs) alone (azacitidine & decitabine), high-intensity induction chemotherapy (IC), & stem cell transplant (SCT) alone or after HMAs. Limited information is available on how these recommendations are applied in practice. This study evaluated the real-world treatment of HR MDS pts. Methods: Newly diagnosed HR MDS pts who were ≥18 years old & initiated first-line therapy (1LT) were retrospectively identified from a large United States EMR database between 1/1/2008 & 7/31/2015. As complete cytogenetics were not available in the database, HR was based on: ICD coding: ≥1 inpatient claim with an HR MDS ICD-9/10 code (ICD-9 code: 238.73; ICD-10 codes: D46.20, D46.21, D46.22), or ≥2 outpatient claims with an MDS ICD-9/10 code, or an adapted HR MDS algorithm (NCCN Guidelines in Oncology for MDS v.1.2016; Greenberg, et al. Blood. 2012;120:2454-65; Schanz et al. J Clin Oncol. 2012;30:820-9). The first MDS claim served as the index date. 1LT was defined as an MDS-specific treatment initiated on or after the index date. Pts were followed until death, progression to acute myeloid leukemia (AML), loss to follow-up, or end of study (9/30/2015). Results: 720 newly diagnosed HR MDS pts were identified; of these, 229 (32%) pts received MDS-specific treatment. Median time to treatment was 22 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 10, 74). HMAs were the most common agents in the 1LT with 60% (n= 138) & 24% (n=54) receiving azacitidine & decitabine, respectively. Lenalidomide was used in 7.4% of pts (n=17), 4.8% received SCT alone (n=11), & 3.9% (n=9) received IC. At median follow-up of 9.4 months (IQR: 4.3, 18.4), 38% (n=86) died & 28% (n=63) progressed to AML. Conclusions: Despite guidelines, most HR MDS pts in a real-world setting were not treated with MDS-specific treatment. Among treated pts, 1LT with HMAs & azacitidine predominated. Subsequent research is needed to understand reasons for lack of treatment.

Treatment patterns and clinical outcomes among patients (pts) with HER2+ advanced breast cancer (ABC) and germline BRCA1/2 mutation(s) (gBRCA1/2mut): Results from a US real-world study.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e13076-e13076
Author(s):  
Elias Obeid ◽  
Rohan Parikh ◽  
Elizabeth Esterberg ◽  
Bhakti Arondekar ◽  
Abigail Hitchens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Targeted Therapy ◽  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Real World ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Parp Inhibitors ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Additional Data Collection ◽  
Line Setting

e13076 Background: g BRCA1/2mut ABC represents ~5% of all breast cancer (BC) including pts with HER2+ BC. While HER2-targeted therapy remains an effective tx for those pts, limited information is available on the use and effectiveness of PARP inhibitors (PARPi) for pts with HER2+ g BRCA1/2mut ABC. Recently, NCCN updated its guidelines (v1.2020) to support the use of PARPi in pts with g BRCA1/2mut metastatic BC regardless of subtype. In order to establish a baseline reference point, we assessed real-world tx patterns and clinical outcomes among pts with g BRCA1/2mut HER2+. Methods: Oncologists retrospectively reviewed charts (July-Oct 2019) of randomly selected pts ≥18 y, with g BRCA1/2mut HER2+ABC who received ≥1 cytotoxic chemotherapy (CT) regimen(s) for ABC between Jan 2013-April 2018. Descriptive analysis was performed for 1st line ABC tx patterns. Clinical outcomes (1st line ABC PFS rates) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. PARPi clinical outcomes data was immature given its recent launch. Additional analyses evaluating outcomes in pts receiving PARPi are planned. Results: Of the 225 pts with g BRCA1/2mut ABC included in the study, 48 (21%) female pts had HER2+ disease. Of the g BRCA1/2mut HER2+ pts, 77% were white with a median age of 58 y. Clinical characteristics: 42% HR+/HER2+, 56% HR-/HER2+, 2% had unknown HR/HER2+ ABC. Txs in the 1st line setting for HR+/HER2+ ABC pts (n = 20) included: CT (75%), CT + HER2-targeted therapy (25%) (Table). First-line txs used for HR-/HER2+ ABC pts (n = 27) included: CT + HER2-targeted therapy (78%), CT (15%), other (7%) (Table). 12-month PFS for 1st line HR+/HER2+ pts was 73% and for HR-/HER2+ pts was 69% (Table). Later line tx patterns will be presented. Conclusions: In this analysis of pts with g BRCA1/2mut HR+/HER2+, unexpectedly low rates of HER2-targeted therapy were observed. As expected, high rates of HER2-targeted therapy with CT were observed among g BRCA1/2mut HR-/HER2+ pts. Clinical outcome findings demonstrate the need for more efficacious tx options. Studies assessing clinical outcomes among g BRCA1/2mut HER2+ ABC pts receiving PARPi +/- HER2-targeted tx are warranted. This is a limited sample size; additional data collection including median PFS is ongoing. [Table: see text]

scholarly journals Fuzzy Overclustering: Semi-Supervised Classification of Fuzzy Labels with Overclustering and Inverse Cross-Entropy

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (19) ◽  
pp. 6661
Author(s):  
Lars Schmarje ◽  
Johannes Brünger ◽  
Monty Santarossa ◽  
Simon-Martin Schröder ◽  
Rainer Kiko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Real World ◽  
Supervised Classification ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Classification Problems ◽  
Previous State ◽  
Supervised Methods ◽  
Real World Datasets ◽  
Fuzzy Labels

Deep learning has been successfully applied to many classification problems including underwater challenges. However, a long-standing issue with deep learning is the need for large and consistently labeled datasets. Although current approaches in semi-supervised learning can decrease the required amount of annotated data by a factor of 10 or even more, this line of research still uses distinct classes. For underwater classification, and uncurated real-world datasets in general, clean class boundaries can often not be given due to a limited information content in the images and transitional stages of the depicted objects. This leads to different experts having different opinions and thus producing fuzzy labels which could also be considered ambiguous or divergent. We propose a novel framework for handling semi-supervised classifications of such fuzzy labels. It is based on the idea of overclustering to detect substructures in these fuzzy labels. We propose a novel loss to improve the overclustering capability of our framework and show the benefit of overclustering for fuzzy labels. We show that our framework is superior to previous state-of-the-art semi-supervised methods when applied to real-world plankton data with fuzzy labels. Moreover, we acquire 5 to 10% more consistent predictions of substructures.

scholarly journals Aggregating Frame-Level Information in the Spectral Domain With Self-Attention for Speaker Embedding

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youzhi Tu ◽  
Man-Wai Mak
Keyword(s):  
Low Frequency ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
Spectral Domain ◽  
Feature Maps ◽  
Unseen Data ◽  
Spectral Components ◽  
Level Information ◽  
Global Statistics ◽  
Spectral Representations

<pre><pre>Most pooling methods in state-of-the-art speaker embedding networks are implemented in the temporal domain. However, due to the high non-stationarity in the feature maps produced from the last frame-level layer, it is not advantageous to use the global statistics (e.g., means and standard deviations) of the temporal feature maps as aggregated embeddings. This motivates us to explore stationary spectral representations and perform aggregation in the spectral domain. In this paper, we propose attentive short-time spectral pooling (attentive <u>STSP</u>) from a Fourier perspective to exploit the local stationarity of the feature maps. In attentive <u>STSP</u>, for each utterance, we compute the spectral representations through a weighted average of the windowed segments within each spectrogram by attention weights and aggregate their lowest spectral components to form the speaker embedding. Because most energy of the feature maps is concentrated in the low-frequency region in the spectral domain, attentive <u>STSP</u> facilitates the information aggregation by retaining the low spectral components only. Moreover, due to the segment-level attention mechanism, attentive <u>STSP</u> can produce smoother attention weights (weights with less variations) than attentive pooling and generalize better to unseen data, making it more robust against the adverse effect of the non-stationarity in the feature maps. Attentive <u>STSP</u> is shown to consistently outperform attentive pooling on <u>VoxCeleb1</u>, <u>VOiCES19</u>-eval, <u>SRE16</u>-eval, and <u>SRE18</u>-<u>CMN2</u>-eval. This observation suggests that applying segment-level attention and leveraging low spectral components can produce discriminative speaker embeddings.</pre></pre>

scholarly journals Automatable Distributed Regression Analysis of Vertically Partitioned Data Facilitated by PopMedNet: Feasibility and Enhancement Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qoua Her ◽  
Thomas Kent ◽  
Yuji Samizo ◽  
Aleksandra Slavkovic ◽  
Yury Vilk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Real World ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Patient Privacy ◽  
File Transfer ◽  
Level Information ◽  
Partitioned Data ◽  
Analysis Center ◽  
Vertically Partitioned Data ◽  
Technical Capability

BACKGROUND In clinical research, important variables may be collected from multiple data sources. Physical pooling of patient-level data from multiple sources often raises several challenges, including proper protection of patient privacy and proprietary interests. We previously developed an SAS-based package to perform distributed regression—a suite of privacy-protecting methods that perform multivariable-adjusted regression analysis using only summary-level information—with horizontally partitioned data, a setting where distinct cohorts of patients are available from different data sources. We integrated the package with PopMedNet, an open-source file transfer software, to facilitate secure file transfer between the analysis center and the data-contributing sites. The feasibility of using PopMedNet to facilitate distributed regression analysis (DRA) with vertically partitioned data, a setting where the data attributes from a cohort of patients are available from different data sources, was unknown. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study was to describe the feasibility of using PopMedNet and enhancements to PopMedNet to facilitate automatable vertical DRA (vDRA) in real-world settings. METHODS We gathered the statistical and informatic requirements of using PopMedNet to facilitate automatable vDRA. We enhanced PopMedNet based on these requirements to improve its technical capability to support vDRA. RESULTS PopMedNet can enable automatable vDRA. We identified and implemented two enhancements to PopMedNet that improved its technical capability to perform automatable vDRA in real-world settings. The first was the ability to simultaneously upload and download multiple files, and the second was the ability to directly transfer summary-level information between the data-contributing sites without a third-party analysis center. CONCLUSIONS PopMedNet can be used to facilitate automatable vDRA to protect patient privacy and support clinical research in real-world settings.

scholarly journals Real-world experience of CPX-351 as first-line treatment for patients with acute myeloid leukemia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Rautenberg ◽  
Friedrich Stölzel ◽  
Christoph Röllig ◽  
Matthias Stelljes ◽  
Verena Gaidzik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Myeloid Leukemia ◽  
Real World ◽  
Myeloid Leukemia ◽  
Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation ◽  
Residual Disease ◽  
Hematologic Toxicity ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Efficient Treatment ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Acute Myeloid

AbstractTo investigate the efficacy and toxicities of CPX-351 outside a clinical trial, we analyzed 188 patients (median age 65 years, range 26–80) treated for therapy-related acute myeloid leukemia (t-AML, 29%) or AML with myelodysplasia-related changes (AML-MRC, 70%). Eighty-six percent received one, 14% two induction cycles, and 10% received consolidation (representing 22% of patients with CR/CRi) with CPX-351. Following induction, CR/CRi rate was 47% including 64% of patients with available information achieving measurable residual disease (MRD) negativity (<10−3) as measured by flow cytometry. After a median follow-up of 9.3 months, median overall survival (OS) was 21 months and 1-year OS rate 64%. In multivariate analysis, complex karyotype predicted lower response (p = 0.0001), while pretreatment with hypomethylating agents (p = 0.02) and adverse European LeukemiaNet 2017 genetic risk (p < 0.0001) were associated with lower OS. Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) was performed in 116 patients (62%) resulting in promising outcome (median survival not reached, 1-year OS 73%), especially in MRD-negative patients (p = 0.048). With 69% of patients developing grade III/IV non-hematologic toxicity following induction and a day 30-mortality of 8% the safety profile was consistent with previous findings. These real-world data confirm CPX-351 as efficient treatment for these high-risk AML patients facilitating allo-HCT in many patients with promising outcome after transplantation.

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