Rational Analysis of Grand Strategy
This chapter describes the basic structure of a rational analysis of grand strategy. Rational analysis is an approach, not a school or a theory. It is the approach that is required by and supports sound policy analysis; it is not controversial. Nevertheless, appreciating the structure and requirements of a rational analysis can provide guidance for performing high-quality analysis and for critiquing ongoing debates over grand strategy. All of the major schools of grand strategy in the US debate are built on a rational analysis. The chapter first addresses the terms “grand strategy” and “rational.” It then describes the basic components of a rational grand-strategic analysis: state’s interests (including the distinction between fundamental interests and “derivative interests”), the international environment, theories of state interaction, the options available to a state, the comparison of these options, and a conclusion about which grand strategy will best serve a state’s interests. The final section brief highlights the analytic value of understanding the structure and requirements of rational analyses of grand strategy.