Managing Transboundary Rivers to Avert Conflict and Facilitate Cooperation

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neda Zawahri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Interstate Conflict ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Transboundary Rivers ◽  
Transboundary Water ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Transboundary Water Resources

Increasing populations, climate change, and industrialization are challenging states’ ability to meet domestic demands for scarce freshwater resources. In fact, world leaders and international organizations are warning of the increasing potential for interstate conflict and tension over transboundary rivers. Relying on qualitative and quantitative analysis, experts have analyzed means by which states can peacefully manage their transboundary basins. Despite substantial improvements in our understanding of some of the factors influencing riparian conflicts along with the forces leading to treaty formation, treaty design, and treaty effectiveness, several controversies remain, including the influence of the balance of power within the basin, the role of water shortages, and the effectiveness of treaties in managing transboundary water disputes. In addition, there are a number of understudied topics that require future research. These include the influence of climate change and increasing abstraction of groundwater resources on the management of transboundary water resources.

Physiological and morphological effects of climate change

2019 ◽  
pp. 120-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew E. McKechnie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Heat Events

The direct impacts of higher temperatures on birds are manifested over timescales ranging from minutes and hours to years and decades. Over short timescales, acute exposure to high temperatures can lead to hyperthermia or dehydration, which among arid-zone species occasionally causes catastrophic mortality events. Over intermediate timescales of days to weeks, high temperatures can have chronic sub-lethal effects via body mass loss or reduced nestling growth rates, negatively affecting sev eral fitness components. Long-term effects of warming manifested over years to decades involve declining body mass or changes in appendage size. Key directions for future research include elucidating the role of phenotypic plasticity and epigenetic processes in avian adaptation to climate change, examining the role of stress pathways in mediating responses to heat events, and understanding the consequences of higher temperatures for species that traverse hot regions while migrating.

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES: LESSONS FROM CURRENT RESEARCH AND NEEDS FROM FUTURE RESEARCH

2012 ◽  
Vol 03 (02) ◽  
pp. 1250005 ◽  
Author(s):  
ARUN S. MALIK ◽  
STEPHEN C. SMITH
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Autonomous Adaptation ◽  
Adaptation Decision ◽  
Planned Adaptation ◽  
The Relationship

We put in perspective the papers in this special issue by characterizing different forms of adaptation to climate change and discussing the role of adaptation in a developing country context. We highlight adaptation decision-making under uncertainty, empirics of autonomous adaptation, and data and methodological challenges. We identify unresolved questions, emphasizing interactions between autonomous and planned adaptation, adaptation externalities, and the relationship between adaptation and conflict.

scholarly journals Deep Learning based assessment of groundwater level development in Germany until 2100

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Wunsch ◽  
Tanja Liesch ◽  
Stefan Broda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
The Past ◽  
Skill Scores

<p>Clear signs of climate stress on groundwater resources have been observed in recent years even in generally water-rich regions such as Germany. Severe droughts, resulting in decreased groundwater recharge, led to declining groundwater levels in many regions and even local drinking water shortages have occurred in past summers. We investigate how climate change will directly influence the groundwater resources in Germany until the year 2100. For this purpose, we use a machine learning groundwater level forecasting framework, based on Convolutional Neural Networks, which has already proven its suitability in modelling groundwater levels. We predict groundwater levels on more than 120 wells distributed over the entire area of Germany that showed strong reactions to meteorological signals in the past. The inputs are derived from the RCP8.5 scenario of six climate models, pre-selected and pre-processed by the German Meteorological Service, thus representing large parts of the range of the expected change in the next 80 years. Our models are based on precipitation and temperature and are carefully evaluated in the past and only wells with models reaching high forecasting skill scores are included in our study. We only consider natural climate change effects based on meteorological changes, while highly uncertain human factors, such as increased groundwater abstraction or irrigation effects, remain unconsidered due to a lack of reliable input data. We can show significant (p<0.05) declining groundwater levels for a large majority of the considered wells, however, at the same time we interestingly observe the opposite behaviour for a small portion of the considered locations. Further, we show mostly strong increasing variability, thus an increasing number of extreme groundwater events. The spatial patterns of all observed changes reveal stronger decreasing groundwater levels especially in the northern and eastern part of Germany, emphasizing the already existing decreasing trends in these regions</p>

scholarly journals Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and the Potential for Interstate Conflict in South Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 109-122
Author(s):  
Michael Klare
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Interstate Conflict ◽  
Security Analysts ◽  
River Systems ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Himalayan Glaciers ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Impact

Ever since American security analysts began to consider the impact of global warming on international security, water has been viewed as an especially critical factor. In many parts of the developing world, water supplies are already insufficient to meet societal requirements, and, by shrinking these supplies further, climate change will cause widespread hardship, unrest, and conflict. But exactly what role water plays in this equation has been the subject of considerable reassessment over time. When analysts first examined warming’s impacts, they largely assumed that climate-related water scarcities would most likely provoke conflict within nations; only later did analysts look closely at the possibility of conflicts arising between states, typically in the context of shared river systems. This risk appears particularly acute in South Asia, where several highly-populated countries, including China, India, and Pakistan, rely on river systems which depend for part of their flow on meltwater from the Himalayan glaciers, which are contracting as a result of climate change. In the absence of greater efforts by these countries to address this peril in a collaborative, equitable manner, looming water shortages could combine with other antagonisms to trigger armed conflict, possibly entailing the use of nuclear weapons.

scholarly journals The Role of Felt Responsibility in Climate Change Political Participation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sammi Munson ◽  
John Kotcher ◽  
Edward Maibach ◽  
Seth A Rosenthal ◽  
Anthony Leiserowitz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Behavioral Intent ◽  
Significant Positive Relationship ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Past Behavior ◽  
Felt Responsibility ◽  
Nationally Representative

Abstract This research letter investigates the role of feelings of responsibility to reduce climate change (i.e., “felt responsibility”) as an antecedent to climate change related political behaviors and intentions, including willingness to join a campaign, likelihood of supporting pro-climate presidential candidates, and past contact with elected officials. Using nationally representative survey data (n = 1,029) we find that felt responsibility has a significant positive relationship with future behavioral intent, but not past behavior. Implications and future research are discussed.

The Ecology of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Migratory Birds: An Assessment of the Role of Climate Change and Priorities for Future Research

EcoHealth ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trevon Fuller ◽  
Staffan Bensch ◽  
Inge Müller ◽  
John Novembre ◽  
Javier Pérez-Tris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Future Research

scholarly journals Climate Emergency: UK Universities' Declarations and Their Role in Responding to Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Briony Latter ◽  
Stuart Capstick
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Critical Discourse Analysis ◽  
Critical Discourse ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Promotional Material ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
University Of Bristol ◽  
The University

On April 17, 2019, the University of Bristol became the first university in the United Kingdom (UK) to declare a climate emergency. Against a backdrop of high visibility and public concern about climate change, as well as climate emergency declarations from other sectors, another 36 UK universities followed suit over the next year. This paper explores what these climate emergency declarations show about how UK universities are responding to climate change and wider sustainability concerns, as well as how they view and present themselves in relation to this. Critical Discourse Analysis of the declarations allowed for in-depth scrutiny of the purpose and wider social context of the documents, demonstrating that they function as promotional statements, as presenting a collective voice, and showing a commitment from the universities to action. We argue that while these provide the potential for advancing sustainability within the sector, the tendency to use declarations as publicity and promotional material does detract from new commitments and action. The research contributes to the discussion around the role of universities as institutions with a responsibility both to act on climate change and to shape the broader societal response to it. It also provides insights as to how future research can evaluate universities in relation to their commitments and strategies, and provides suggestions to help ensure they live up to the promises and intentions that they have publicly made.

scholarly journals Reliability Assessment of Agricultural Reservoirs for Water Supply under Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-60
Author(s):  
Dasang Ko ◽  
Yeongcheol Joo ◽  
Taesam Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
The Future ◽  
Storage Rate ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Agricultural Areas

Recently, the frequency of drought occurrence and the resulting damage has increased due to climate change. Frequent severe droughts induce water shortages in agricultural reservoirs. The role of drought monitoring and prediction is critical for mitigating the effects of severe drought in agricultural areas. In this study, a compound standardized storage and precipitation index (CSSPI) was developed that adapted the existing drought index-the standardized precipitation index (SPI)-by adding hydrological data on storage rate. Furthermore, the future storage rate was simulated using autoregressive models (AR) to estimate the future CSSPI. A dataset containing records of reservoirs and precipitation at the three areas of Jungbu, Youngnam, and Honam was applied to estimate the current and future status of the CSSPI. The results indicate that the CSSPIs generated accurately present the past pattern of the observed data and that they can be considered as inputs for predicting future drought conditions.

scholarly journals Ecological mechanisms underlying aridity thresholds in global drylands

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Berdugo ◽  
Blai Vidiella Rocamora ◽  
Ricard Solé ◽  
Fernando T. Maestre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Ecosystem Structure ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Physiological Mechanisms ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Atmospheric Feedbacks ◽  
Ecosystem Structure And Functioning ◽  
Combat Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Changes

With ongoing climate change, the probability of crossing environmental thresholds promoting abrupt changes in ecosystem structure and functioning is higher than ever. In drylands (sites where it rains less than 60% of what is evaporated), recent research has shown how the crossing of three particular aridity thresholds (defining three consecutive phases, namely vegetation decline, soil disruption and systemic breakdown) leads to abrupt changes on ecosystem structural and functional attributes. Despite the importance of these findings and their implications to develop effective monitoring and adaptation actions to combat climate change, we lack a proper understanding of the mechanisms unleashing these abrupt shifts.Here we revise and discuss multiple mechanisms that may explain the existence of aridity thresholds observed across global drylands, and discuss the potential amplification mechanisms that may underpin hypothetical abrupt temporal shifts with climate change. We found that each aridity threshold is likely involving specific processes. In the vegetation decline phase we review mainly physiological mechanisms of plant adaptation to water shortages as main cause of this threshold. In the second threshold we identified three pathways involving mechanisms that propagates changes from plants to soil leading to a soil disruption: erosive mechanisms, mechanisms linked to an aridity-induced shrub encroachment and mechanisms linked to nutrient cycling and circulation. Finally, in the systemic breakdown phase we reviewed plant-plant amplification mechanisms triggered by survival limits of plants that may cause sudden diversity losses and plant-atmospheric feedbacks that may link vegetation collapse with further and critical aridification. By identifying, revising and linking relevant mechanisms to each aridity threshold, we catalogued a set of specific hypotheses and recommendations based on identified knowledge gaps concerning the study of mechanisms of threshold emergence in drylands. Moreover, we were able to establish plausible factors that are context dependent and may influence the occurrence of abrupt changes in time and we created a mechanistic-based conceptual model on how abrupt changes may emerge as aridity increases. This has importance for focusing future research efforts on aridity thresholds and for developing strategies to track, adapt to or even revert these abrupt ecosystem changes in the future.

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