scholarly journals How Does Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Perform with Conventional National Surveys?

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 449-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew K. Buttice ◽  
Benjamin Highton
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Substantial Variation ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
National Surveys ◽  
Empirical Inquiry

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a method to estimate public opinion across geographic units from individual-level survey data. If it works with samples the size of typical national surveys, then MRP offers the possibility of analyzing many political phenomena previously believed to be outside the bounds of systematic empirical inquiry. Initial investigations of its performance with conventional national samples produce generally optimistic assessments. This article examines a larger number of cases and a greater range of opinions than in previous studies and finds substantial variation in MRP performance. Through empirical and Monte Carlo analyses, we develop an explanation for this variation. The findings suggest that the conditions necessary for MRP to perform well will not always be met. Thus, we draw a less optimistic conclusion than previous studies do regarding the use of MRP with samples of the size found in typical national surveys.

Policy Mood and Political Sophistication: Why Everybody Moves Mood

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 433-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER K. ENNS ◽  
PAUL M. KELLSTEDT
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
General Social Survey ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Political Sophistication ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Opinion Change

This article presents evidence that both micro (individual level) and macro (aggregate level) theories of public opinion overstate the importance of political sophistication for opinion change. It is argued that even the least politically sophisticated segment of society receives messages about the economy and uses this information to update attitudes about political issues. To test this hypothesis, the authors have used General Social Survey data to construct a 31-item measure of policy mood, disaggregated by political sophistication, that spans from 1972 to 2004. They found that all the subgroups generally changed opinion at the same time, in the same direction, and to about the same extent. Furthermore, they show that groups at different sophistication levels change opinions for predominantly the same reasons.

Minority Groups and Judicial Legitimacy: Group Affect and the Incentives for Judicial Responsiveness

2017 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 270-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Zilis
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
National Survey ◽  
Attitude Change ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Social Groups ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
Novel Model

This paper introduces a new perspective into the literature on judicial legitimacy by examining the incentives for courts to cater to a popular majority and offering a novel model of legitimacy that has consequences for judicial responsiveness. The account integrates into the literature classic research on how strategic social groups shape public opinion. I theorize that citizens use their perceptions of the judiciary’s support for various social groups as a means to assess the institution overall. From this insight, I derive specific expectations about the conditions under which the Supreme Court’s protection of minority groups like gays and immigrants can damage its legitimacy. Using national survey data, I demonstrate that dislike for the beneficiaries of recent Court rulings systematically diminishes the institution’s legitimacy. The influence of these group-based considerations shapes individual-level attitude change and can be observed at various points in time.

Racial Attitudes in America

2019 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
pp. 450-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Patton Moberg ◽  
Maria Krysan ◽  
Deanna Christianson
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Racial Attitudes ◽  
General Social Survey ◽  
Racial Equality ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Time Points ◽  
National Surveys ◽  
Election Studies

ABSTRACT Racial attitudes are multidimensional, and the corresponding picture we get from survey data on racial attitudes is complex. Tracing the results of major national surveys that provide trends over at least 10 years, and with at least three time points (primarily the General Social Survey and the National Election Studies), this article reveals that complexity. Some survey questions show dramatic changes in support of racial equality, while others reveal stagnation or even increasing negativity or disinterest. The article also describes the differences between whites and blacks in patterns and trends. Although compared to some issues, the survey record on racial attitudes is robust and lengthy, we draw attention to important ways in which it is uneven. We conclude by highlighting areas for future research that focus on improved survey measures that will capture more fully the complexity of contemporary public opinion on racial matters.

The Link Between Voting and Life Satisfaction in Latin America

2011 ◽  
Vol 53 (04) ◽  
pp. 101-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Weitz-Shapiro ◽  
Matthew S. Winters
Keyword(s):  
Life Satisfaction ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Compulsory Voting ◽  
Causal Direction ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractWhat is the relationship between voting and individual life satisfaction in Latin America? While studies of Western Europe suggest that voters are happier than nonvoters, this relationship has not been explored in the younger democracies of the developing world, including those of Latin America. Using multilevel regression models to examine individual-level survey data, this study shows a positive correlation between voting and happiness in the region, noting, however, that the relationship is attenuated in those countries that have enforced compulsory voting. We then explore the causal direction of this relationship: while the existing literature points to voting as a possible determinant of individual happiness, it is also possible that happier individuals are more likely to vote. Three different strategies are used to disentangle this relationship. On balance, the evidence suggests that individual happiness is more likely to be a cause rather than an effect of voting in Latin America.

scholarly journals Examining the Effects of the Sacramento Dockless E-Bike Share on Bicycling and Driving

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 368
Author(s):  
Dillon T. Fitch ◽  
Hossain Mohiuddin ◽  
Susan L. Handy
Keyword(s):  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Panel Survey ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Combine Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Bike Share

One way cities are looking to promote bicycling is by providing publicly or privately operated bike-share services, which enable individuals to rent bicycles for one-way trips. Although many studies have examined the use of bike-share services, little is known about how these services influence individual-level travel behavior more generally. In this study, we examine the behavior of users and non-users of a dockless, electric-assisted bike-share service in the Sacramento region of California. This service, operated by Jump until suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic, was one of the largest of its kind in the U.S., and spanned three California cities: Sacramento, West Sacramento, and Davis. We combine data from a repeat cross-sectional before-and-after survey of residents and a longitudinal panel survey of bike-share users with the goal of examining how the service influenced individual-level bicycling and driving. Results from multilevel regression models suggest that the effect of bike-share on average bicycling and driving at the population level is likely small. However, our results indicate that people who have used-bike share are likely to have increased their bicycling because of bike-share.

scholarly journals Party Responsiveness to Public Opinion in Young Democracies

2021 ◽  
pp. 003232172199363
Author(s):  
Raimondas Ibenskas ◽  
Jonathan Polk
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
The Public ◽  
National Surveys ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Established Democracies ◽  
Expert Surveys ◽  
Cross National

Are political parties in young democracies responsive to the policy preferences of the public? Compared to extensive scholarship on party responsiveness in established democracies, research on party responsiveness in young democracies is limited. We argue that weaker programmatic party–voter linkages in post-communist democracies create incentives for parties to respond to their supporters rather than the more general electorate. Such responsiveness occurs in two ways. First, parties follow shifts in the mean position of their supporters. Second, drawing on the research on party–voter congruence, we argue that parties adjust their policy positions to eliminate previous incongruence between themselves and their supporters. Analyses based on a comprehensive dataset that uses expert surveys, parties’ manifestoes and election surveys to measure parties’ positions, and several cross-national and national surveys to measure voters’ preferences provide strong support for this argument.

How Voters Respond to Currency Crises: Evidence From Turkey

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402110602
Author(s):  
David A. Steinberg
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Financial Shocks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
And Migration

A burgeoning literature shows that international trade and migration shocks influence individuals’ political attitudes, but relatively little is known about how international financial shocks impact public opinion. This study examines how one prevalent type of international financial shock—currency crises—shapes mass political attitudes. I argue that currency crises reduce average citizens’ support for incumbent governments. I also expect voters’ concerns about their own pocketbooks to influence their response to currency crises. Original survey data from Turkey support these arguments. Exploiting exogenous variation in the currency’s value during the survey window, I show that currency depreciations strongly reduce support for the government. This effect is stronger among individuals that are more negatively affected by depreciation, and it is moderated by individuals’ perceptions of their personal economic situation. This evidence suggests that international financial shocks can strongly influence the opinions of average voters, and it provides further support for pocketbook theories.

scholarly journals Linking environment and health data to investigate the association between access to unhealthy food and child BMI

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Mizen ◽  
Sarah Rodgers ◽  
Richard Fry ◽  
Ronan Lyons
Keyword(s):  
Health Data ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Retail Food Environment ◽  
Environment And Health ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Unhealthy Eating ◽  
Walk To School ◽  
Child Bmi

IntroductionModelling the daily exposure environment provides evidence for policy and practice. However, the dose-response relationship between exposure to food environments and obesity has not been widely investigated. This study investigated whether increased retail food environment (RFE) exposure in children was associated with a larger body mass index (BMI). Objectives and ApproachIndividually tailored environmental exposures were calculated in a GIS for home and school locations, and modelled walking routes to and from school. Exposures were linked to individual level health data in the SAIL databank for a cohort of individuals aged 11-13 years from south Wales who had BMI measurements. A fully adjusted multilevel regression model was fitted to investigate the association of RFE exposure with BMI. Based on the distance individuals lived from school, we investigated differences between children who have the potential to walk to school (“walkers” lived 4.8km). ResultsHome exposure and exposure along the walk to school was significantly greater for children living in deprived catchments, compared with children living in affluent school catchments (t = -5.25, p Conclusion/ImplicationsIncreased BMI was associated with greater RFE exposure along the walk home from school. The findings suggest that the walk home from school should be the focus for developing interventions and policies to discourage unhealthy eating. Research should be undertaken to better understand child purchasing habits.

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