Defining and Modeling State-Dependent Dynamic Systems

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Esarey ◽  
Jacqueline H. R. DeMeritt
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Systems ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
State Dependence ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Methodological Strategy

A state-dependent dynamic system is one in which (1) the marginal effect ofxonyat timet() depends on the prior value of the dependent variable, and (2) the persistence of the dependent variable () depends onxt. We present a methodological strategy for dealing with state-dependent dynamic systems and demonstrate the consequences of ignoring state-dependence. As an applied example, we find evidence of state-dependence in the relationship between presidential approval and economic performance: high unemployment rates are most damaging to presidential approval among presidents with the highest initial approval ratings.

scholarly journals The Impact of Economic Growth on Gender Specific Unemployment in the EU

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuzana Brincikova ◽  
Lubomir Darmo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Gender Specific ◽  
Higher Sensitivity ◽  
The Eu

Abstract The relationship between unemployment and economic growth is known as Okun´s Law. Okun´s Law is used to estimate the reaction of unemployment rate on change in GDP growth. The purpose of this paper is therefore to examine the possibly asymmetric relationship between changes in output and gender specific unemployment rates by estimating Okun´s coefficients for all countries of the EU, as well as for selected groups of the EU countries. These groups include countries with similar characteristics that differ from other groups and represent the diversity among the EU. The results confirm that male unemployment is more sensitive to changes in GDP than the unemployment of females. Furthermore, findings differ on the country´s specifics with higher sensitivity in countries with lower economic performance.

Does Public Opinion Constrain Presidential Unilateralism?

2019 ◽  
Vol 113 (4) ◽  
pp. 1071-1077 ◽  
Author(s):  
DINO P. CHRISTENSON ◽  
DOUGLAS L. KRINER
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Institutional Constraints ◽  
American Democracy ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Executive Orders ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Unilateral Action ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Whether presidential unilateralism is normatively advantageous or parlous for American democracy may depend on the extent to which a check remains on its exercise and abuse. Because the formal institutional constraints on unilateral action are weak, an emerging literature argues that the most important checks on unilateralism may be political, with public opinion playing a pivotal role. However, existing scholarship offers little systematic evidence that public opinion constrains unilateral action. To fill this gap, we use vector autoregression with Granger-causality tests to examine the relationship between presidential approval and executive orders. Contra past speculation that presidents increasingly issue executive orders as a last resort when their stock of political capital is low, we find that rising approval ratings increase the frequency of major unilateral action. Low approval ratings, by contrast, limit the exercise of unilateral power.

Presidential Approval Ratings as a Variable in the Agenda-Building Process

1991 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 672-679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne Wanta
Keyword(s):  
News Media ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Gallup Poll ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Building Process ◽  
The Press ◽  
Presidential Approval Ratings ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Poll Data

The agenda of the president, press and public obviously have a relationship to each other, and this study finds the president can interfere with the relationship between the news media and public by presenting an agenda of issues that differs from the press' agenda. Based on a content analysis of the president's weekly summary of activities/documents and Gallup Poll data from 1970 to 1988, this investigation suggests president and press, in a sense, compete for public attention and that the president is more likely to win attention when his popularity is high.

FINANCIAL CRISES AND THE PUBLICATION OF THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS OF BANKS IN SPAIN, 1844–1868

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mercedes Bernal Lloréns
Keyword(s):  
19Th Century ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Limited Liability ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Early Response ◽  
Banking Regulations ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Relationship

Financial crises have had a decisive influence on banking regulations in Spain. During the mid-19th century the publication of the financial statements of banks was considered key to the stability of the financial system. All new joint stock banking companies were to publish their statements in the Madrid Gazette in return for the privilege of limited liability. Similar obligations were placed on issuing banks. The copious publication of financial statements coincided with a period of financial prosperity. However, the crises that followed from 1864 to 1868 led to a reduction in the official publication of statements. This paper is concerned with an early response to crises in financial reporting. The study focuses on the relationship between the publication of accounting statements by banks and the GDP in Spain during the mid-19th century. The results suggest that the frequency of publication of financial statements may be an indicator of economic performance.

State-dependent signalling in queueing networks

1994 ◽  
Vol 26 (02) ◽  
pp. 436-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Henderson ◽  
B. S. Northcote ◽  
P. G. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Queueing Networks ◽  
State Dependence ◽  
Product Form ◽  
Batch Size ◽  
Single Server ◽  
Negative Customers ◽  
Affect Control ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Equilibrium Distributions

It has recently been shown that networks of queues with state-dependent movement of negative customers, and with state-independent triggering of customer movement have product-form equilibrium distributions. Triggers and negative customers are entities which, when arriving to a queue, force a single customer to be routed through the network or leave the network respectively. They are ‘signals' which affect/control network behaviour. The provision of state-dependent intensities introduces queues other than single-server queues into the network. This paper considers networks with state-dependent intensities in which signals can be either a trigger or a batch of negative customers (the batch size being determined by an arbitrary probability distribution). It is shown that such networks still have a product-form equilibrium distribution. Natural methods for state space truncation and for the inclusion of multiple customer types in the network can be viewed as special cases of this state dependence. A further generalisation allows for the possibility of signals building up at nodes.

scholarly journals A copula-based multivariate hidden Markov model for modelling momentum in football

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marius Ötting ◽  
Roland Langrock ◽  
Antonello Maruotti
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Hidden Markov Models ◽  
Markov Models ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
State Dependence ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Sports Fans ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Different Levels

AbstractWe investigate the potential occurrence of change points—commonly referred to as “momentum shifts”—in the dynamics of football matches. For that purpose, we model minute-by-minute in-game statistics of Bundesliga matches using hidden Markov models (HMMs). To allow for within-state dependence of the variables, we formulate multivariate state-dependent distributions using copulas. For the Bundesliga data considered, we find that the fitted HMMs comprise states which can be interpreted as a team showing different levels of control over a match. Our modelling framework enables inference related to causes of momentum shifts and team tactics, which is of much interest to managers, bookmakers, and sports fans.

Polls and Elections : Terror, War, and the Economy in George W. Bush's Approval Ratings: The Importance of Salience in Presidential Approval

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 318-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles W. Ostrom ◽  
Alon P. Kraitzman ◽  
Brian Newman ◽  
Paul R. Abramson
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Approval Ratings

scholarly journals NÍVEL DE EVIDENCIAÇÃO AMBIENTAL E DESEMPENHO ECONÔMICO DE EMPRESAS: APLICANDO A ANÁLISE ENVOLTÓRIA DE DADOS

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 198-226
Author(s):  
Ilse Maria Beuren ◽  
Sabrina Do Nascimento ◽  
Irani Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Information Disclosure ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Environmental Disclosure ◽  
Environmental Information Disclosure ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
The Relationship

The study poses to investigate the relationship between the level of environmental disclosure and economic performance of open capital companies as classified by the Você S/A – As Melhores Empresas para Você Trabalhar (The Best Companies to Work) guide. A descriptive study, employing a quantitative approach, was conducted via documental analysis of financial statements of the therein featured, 21 open capital companies. Survey results evidence that: a) in the environmental disclosure categorization, 680 data entries were found, ranging from 99 deemed complete information, 126 as incomplete and 455 absent; b) in terms of environmental disclosure score levels, 55% of the companies were graded as unsatisfactory, 35% regular and 9% good; and c) the relationship between corporate environmental disclosure levels and economic performance revealed bleak correlation. Thus, once employing the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology, the study concludes that not all companies that presented higher environmental information disclosure levels attained efficient economic performance.

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