scholarly journals School Uniforms, Short-Run Participation, and Long-Run Outcomes: Evidence from Kenya

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David K Evans ◽  
Mũthoni Ngatia
Keyword(s):  
Educational Interventions ◽  
School Uniforms ◽  
Completion Rates ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
School Uniform ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Improve Access

Abstract In recent decades, the number of evaluated interventions to improve access to school has multiplied, but few studies report long-term impacts. This paper reports the impact of an educational intervention that provided school uniforms to children in poor communities in Kenya. The program used a lottery to determine who would receive a school uniform. Receiving a uniform reduced school absenteeism by 37 percent for the average student (7 percentage points) and by 55 percent for children who initially had no uniform (15 percentage points). Eight years after the program began, there is no evidence of sustained impact of the program on highest grade completed or primary school completion rates. A bounding exercise suggests no substantive positive, long-term impacts. These results contribute to a small literature on the long-run impacts of educational interventions and demonstrate the risk of initial impacts depreciating over time.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals The Impact of Exchange Rate on Bangladesh’s Export: A Cointegration Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-30
Author(s):  
Takrima Sayeda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of the paper is to see if there is any relationship exist between free floating exchange rate and export performance of Bangladesh. It inspects the monthly data of exchange rate and export value for the time period between year 2000 and 2017. It utilized the Johansen [1] cointegration approach to identify the extent of long run and short run relationship between them. The study could not establish neither any long term trend nor any short term dynamics between the variables. Respective variables are significantly related to their own immediate past values. Distant past values do not have any implications. This study suggests that short run macroeconomic policy would be beneficial to influence the foreign exchange market and eventually the performance of export of Bangladesh.

scholarly journals Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-266
Author(s):  
G. Ganchev ◽  
◽  
I. Todorov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria’s economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999–2020. Four control variables (the shares of gross capital formation, household consumption, and exports in GDP as well as the economic growth in the euro area) are included in the model to account for the influence of non-fiscal factors on Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between Bulgaria’s economic growth and the independent variables in the ARDL. In the short term, Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate is affected by its own past values and the previous values of the shares of direct tax revenue, exports, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue in GDP. In the long term, Bulgaria’s economic growth is influenced by its own previous values and the past values of the share of household consumption in GDP and the euro area’s real GDP growth rate. Fiscal instruments can be used to stabilize Bulgaria’s growth in the short run but they are neutral in the long run. The direct tax revenue, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue are highly effective and can be used as tools for invigorating and stabilizing Bulgaria’s economic growth in the short run. However, in the long term, the real GDP growth rate can be hastened only by encouraging domestic demand (final consumption expenditure of households) and promoting exports. This research cannot answer the question of whether flat income taxation stabilizes the economy or not, since it does not separate the impact of tax rate changes from the influence of tax base modifications.

scholarly journals The impact of Indonesian oil price (CPI) and macroeconomics on investments in the manufacturing sector in Indonesia

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 338
Author(s):  
Handri Handri ◽  
Hendrati Dwi Mulyaningsih ◽  
Achmad Kemal Hidayat ◽  
Rudi Kurniawan ◽  
Ani Wahyu Rachmawati
Keyword(s):  
Energy Source ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Background: Indonesia consumes oil as the main energy source in the production process and as a result of the development of the manufacturing industry. Thus, investment in manufacturing stocks will be affected by oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic conditions. Changes in oil prices will affect the performance of the manufacturing sector which in turn affects manufacturing stock prices. This paper aims to examine the impact of Indonesia's oil price shocks and macroeconomic factors on stock price movements in the manufacturing sector. Methods: This study uses monthly data for the 2009-2016 period in the manufacturing sector, and 67 stocks were selected on the basis consistently available in the period of the research. The cointegration and causality technique was used in this paper; firstly we applied a unit-panel root test, Secondly, we performed a residual test to indicate whether there was cointegration among variables in the long run equilibrium, and short the short run, we used a Granger causality test. Results: The panel unit root test (both Shin and Fisher) and the Pedroni cointegration residual test show that the data is stationary at 1%  level of significance, thus all variables simultaneously achieve long-run equilibrium, and in the short run, the Granger causality test shows that there is one way direction causality Conclusions: For long-term investment in manufacturing stocks, investors must consider the exchange rate, as it is also as a determining factor in influencing the movement of manufacturing stock prices, inflation, and the production index. Meanwhile, weakening of the rupiah in the short run will also determine investment conditions due to the dependency on raw materials for production from foreign sources. The price of oil as an energy source in the manufacturing sector does not have a long-term relationship with other variables.

scholarly journals Foreign Inflows and Poverty in Pakistan: A Quantitative Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-164
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zahir Faridi ◽  
Khawaja Asif Mehmood ◽  
Ali Azam
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Host Country ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Economic Condition ◽  
Capital Allocation ◽  
Policy Recommendation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Foreign Inflows (FI) acquire immense importance for an open economy. Theoretical and empirical findings suggest that FI dramatically affect the economic condition of host country. Key issue in this respect is to investigate the impact of FI on poverty. The study was based on data from 1972 to 2017. It is concluded a long term relationship between poverty and FI. At large, FI do exhibit having opposite relationship with poverty. Moreover, poverty being long run macroeconomic problem does have short run causality with some of FI. Granger causality is also confirmed on some of FI and poverty. Policy recommendation is the appropriate capital allocation for the efficient restoration of the results of FI.

The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Asian Countries: a heterogeneous panel data approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dicle Ozdemir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Carbon Fertilization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Heterogeneous Panel

Abstract While climate change is having serious impacts on agriculture and may require ongoing adaptation, short-term threats to global food security are also crucial for developing countries. This study aims to investigate how the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity vary depending upon the short-run and long-run in Asia over the period of 1980–2016. The results confirmed that there is a long-term relationship between agricultural productivity and climate change variables; however, only CO2 emissions could be linked to agricultural productivity in the short-term. Moreover, while the direction of this effect is positive for the short term, it turns into negative in the long term confirming that carbon fertilization in the atmosphere can to some extent have a positive effect on agricultural productivity.

scholarly journals Role of Political Instability in Attracting FDI Inflow to Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-49
Author(s):  
Dil Jan ◽  
Muhammad Sibt e Ali ◽  
Muhammad Taqi ◽  
Sabiha Parveen
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Inverse Relation ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Ease Of Doing Business ◽  
The Impact

Purpose:  The reason of this study is to recognize the impact of key determinants of overseas direct asset in case of Pakistan, based on annual information covering the period of 1981-2018. Design/Methodology/Approach: After checking for still of the sequence, the technique of ARDL is used for estimation of long run parameters estimates and error alteration instrument for short run dynamics. Findings: The results of the study indicate that politically stable environment and long term policies are necessary to attract foreign investors. furthermore, investment profile of any government also matter for direct asset in the country as the study conclusions reveal that marketplace size as well as domestic investment are positively related to foreign direct investment while taxes have negative association with overseas straight investment in the case of Pakistan. Implications/Originality/Value: The most important factor for FDI inflow to Pakistan is interest rate or ease of doing business which has negative sign means inverse relation exists between the two variables.

scholarly journals The Effects of Micro-entrepreneurship Programs on Labor Market Performance: Experimental Evidence from Chile

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Martínez A. ◽  
Esteban Puentes ◽  
Jaime Ruiz-Tagle
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Business Practices ◽  
Business Training ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asset Transfer ◽  
The Impact

We investigate the impact of a program providing asset transfers and business training to low income individuals in Chile, and asked whether a larger asset transfer would magnify the program's impact. We randomly assigned participation in a large scale, publicly run micro-entrepreneurship program and evaluated its effects over 45 months. The program improved business practices, employment, and labor income. In the short run, self-employment increased by 14.8/25.2 percentage points for a small/large asset transfer. In the long run, individuals assigned to a smaller transfer were 9 percentage points more likely to become wage workers, whereas those assigned to larger transfers tended to remain self-employed. (JEL J16, J23, L25, L26, L53, O14, R23)

scholarly journals The Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Morocco: Econometric Analysis Using VECM

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kawthar Aghoutane ◽  
Mohamed Karim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The present work aims to contribute to the empirical literature on the effectiveness of Foreign aid in Morocco. We use the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to jointly capture the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics between Official Development Assistance and economic growth. Other variables such as investment, exports, and government consumption are also included in the model. The results indicate that the foreign aid promotes growth through government consumption in the short term. However, the impact of aid on economic growth becomes negative in the long term.

scholarly journals Does financial liberalization affect negatively emerging stock market stability?

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afef TRABELSI MNIF
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we focus on the impact of financial liberalization on stability of emerging stock market. We identify crises in a group of Latin American (Argentina, Brazil and Chile) and Asian countries (Philippines, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand) during 1975–2005. This paper aims to apply the methodology of CMAX method. Our results indicate that liberalization triggers more unstable stock market in the short run and generate several crises. Still, liberalization seems to generate more stable financial markets in the long run. Financial liberalization does not increase the frequency of crises in emerging countries and at long-term, crises are less several.

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