scholarly journals Thermal tolerance, acclimatory capacity and vulnerability to global climate change

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piero Calosi ◽  
David T Bilton ◽  
John I Spicer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Thermal Tolerance ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Marine Animals ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Diving Beetles ◽  
Mountain Systems ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Upper Thermal Tolerance

Despite evidence that organismal distributions are shifting in response to recent climatic warming, we have little information on direct links between species' physiology and vulnerability to climate change. We demonstrate a positive relationship between upper thermal tolerance and its acclimatory ability in a well-defined clade of closely related European diving beetles. We predict that species with the lowest tolerance to high temperatures will be most at risk from the adverse effects of future warming, since they have both low absolute thermal tolerance and poor acclimatory ability. Upper thermal tolerance is also positively related to species' geographical range size, meaning that species most at risk are already the most geographically restricted ones, being endemic to Mediterranean mountain systems. Our findings on the relationship between tolerance and acclimatory ability contrast with results from marine animals, suggesting that generalizations regarding thermal tolerance and responses to future rapid climate change may be premature.

scholarly journals Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

scholarly journals Intraspecific variation in thermal tolerance differs between tropical and temperate fishes

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. H. Nati ◽  
M. B. S. Svendsen ◽  
S. Marras ◽  
S. S. Killen ◽  
J. F. Steffensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Intraspecific Variation ◽  
Fish Species ◽  
Thermal Tolerance ◽  
Evolutionary History ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
Temperate Species ◽  
Tropical Species ◽  
Upper Thermal Tolerance

AbstractHow ectothermic animals will cope with global warming is a critical determinant of the ecological impacts of climate change. There has been extensive study of upper thermal tolerance limits among fish species but how intraspecific variation in tolerance may be affected by habitat characteristics and evolutionary history has not been considered. Intraspecific variation is a primary determinant of species vulnerability to climate change, with implications for global patterns of impacts of ongoing warming. Using published critical thermal maximum (CTmax) data on 203 fish species, we found that intraspecific variation in upper thermal tolerance varies according to a species’ latitude and evolutionary history. Overall, tropical species show a lower intraspecific variation in thermal tolerance than temperate species. Notably, freshwater tropical species have a lower variation in tolerance than freshwater temperate species, which implies increased vulnerability to impacts of thermal stress. The extent of variation in CTmax among fish species has a strong phylogenetic signal, which may indicate a constraint on evolvability to rising temperatures in tropical fishes. That is, in addition to living closer to their upper thermal limits, tropical species may have higher sensitivity and lower adaptability to global warming compared to temperate counterparts. This is evidence that freshwater tropical fish communities, worldwide, are especially vulnerable to ongoing climate change.

scholarly journals Thermal Tolerance of Fruit-Feeding Butterflies (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) in Contrasting Mountaintop Environments

Insects ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Diniz e Silva ◽  
Marina Vale Beirão ◽  
Danon Clemes Cardoso
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Critical Temperature ◽  
Thermal Tolerance ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Campo Rupestre ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Physiological Constraints ◽  
Resistant Species ◽  
Complicated Task ◽  
Forest Islands

Ectothermic organisms, such as insects, are highly temperature dependent and are good models for studies that predict organisms’ responses to global climate change. Predicting how climate change may affect species distributions is a complicated task. However, it is possible to estimate species’ physiological constraints through maximum critical temperature, which may indicate if the species can tolerate new climates. Butterflies are useful organisms for studies of thermal tolerance. We tested if species have different thermal tolerances and if different habitats influence the thermal tolerance of the butterflies present in Brazil’s campo rupestre (open areas) and forest islands (shaded areas). A total of 394 fruit-feeding butterflies, comprising 45 species, were tested. The results separated the species into two statistically different groups: the resistant species with maximum critical temperature of 53.8 ± 7.4 °C, and the non-resistant species with maximum critical temperature of 48.2 ± 7.4 °C. The species of butterflies displayed differences in maximum critical temperature between the campo rupestre and forest islands that can be related to the two distinct habitats, but this did not correlate phylogenetically. Species from the forest islands were also divided into two groups, “resistant” and “non-resistant”, probably due to the heterogeneity of the habitat; the forest islands have a canopy, and in the understory, there are shaded and sunny areas. Species from forest islands, especially species that displayed lower thermal tolerance, may be more susceptible to global warming.

scholarly journals The Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI): Part 3 – Coding protocol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Lesnikowski ◽  
Lea Berrang-Ford ◽  
A.R. Siders ◽  
Neal Haddaway ◽  
Robbert Biesbroek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Human Adaptation ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Review Protocol ◽  
Reduce Risk

Abstract Context: It is now widely accepted that the climate is changing, and that societal response will need to be rapid and comprehensive to prevent the most severe impacts. A key milestone in global climate governance is to assess progress on adaptation. To-date, however, there has been negligible robust, systematic synthesis of progress on adaptation or adaptation-relevant responses globally. Aim: The purpose of this review protocol is to outline the methods used by the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) to systematically review human adaptation responses to climate-related changes that have been documented globally since 2013 in the scientific literature. The broad question underpinning this review is: Are we adapting to climate change? More specifically, we ask ‘what is the evidence relating to human adaptation-related responses that can (or are) directly reducing risk, exposure, and/or vulnerability to climate change?’ Methods: We review scientific literature 2013-2019 to identify documents empirically reporting on observed adaptation-related responses to climate change in human systems that can directly reduce risk. We exclude non-empirical (theoretical & conceptual) literature and adaptation in natural systems that occurs without human intervention. Included documents were coded across a set of questions focused on: Who is responding? What responses are documented? What is the extent of the adaptation-related response? What is the evidence that adaptation-related responses reduce risk, exposure and/or vulnerability? Once articles are coded, we conduct a quality appraisal of the coding and develop ‘evidence packages’ for regions and sectors. We supplement this systematic mapping with an expert elicitation exercise, undertaken to assess bias and validity of insights from included/coded literature vis a vis perceptions of real-world adaptation for global regions and sectors, with associated confidence assessments. Related protocols: This protocol represents Part 3 of a 5-part series outlining the phases of this initiative. Part 3 outlines the methods used to extract data on adaptation from documents (coding), as well as procedures for data quality assurance. See Figure 1.

scholarly journals The nexus of oil, conflict, and climate change vulnerability of pastoral communities in Northwest Kenya

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1163-1200 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Schilling ◽  
R. Locham ◽  
T. Weinzierl ◽  
J. Vivekananda ◽  
J. Scheffran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Oil Exploration ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change

Abstract. Turkana, in northwest Kenya, is the country's poorest and least developed county. Pastoralism in Turkana is well adapted to the harsh climatic conditions but an increase in drought frequency associated with global climate change and intensifying violent conflicts between pastoral groups, poses significant challenges for local communities. The conflicts are especially violent in the border region between the Turkana and the Pokot communities. In this very region significant oil reserves have been found recently. The first aim of this paper is to analyse how the oil exploration affects the communities' vulnerability to climate change. Secondly, the paper explores the risk of the oil explorations to create new conflicts or aggravate existing ones. The primary method of the study is qualitative field research supplemented with a geo-spatial analysis of conflict data. The field research was conducted in October 2013 and April 2014 in three villages with different levels of engagement with the oil exploration. At the time of the research, oil exploration was expected close to Lokwamosing while it had recently started in the vicinity of Lopii and had been ongoing for a longer time close to Nakukulas. The findings suggest that the oil exploration increases the community's vulnerability to climate change. Further, unmet community expectations for water, employment and development pose a significant risk for violent conflict between local communities and the operating oil company. Intercommunal conflict over water and land could increase as well.

scholarly journals Climate-change risk analysis for global urban forests

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez ◽  
John B Baumgartner ◽  
Linda J Beaumont ◽  
Jonathan Lenoir ◽  
David A Nipperess ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Urban Forests ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Urban forests (i.e. all vegetation present in urban areas), provide environmental and socio-economic benefits to more than half of the global population. Projected climate change threatens these benefits to society. Here, we assess vulnerability to climate change of 16,006 plant species present in the urban forests of 1,010 cities within 93 countries, using three vulnerability metrics: exposure, safety margin and risk. Exposure expresses the magnitude of projected changes in climate in a given area, safety margin measures species' sensitivity to climate change, and risk is the difference between exposure and safety margin. We identified 9,676 (60.5%) and 8,344 (52.1%) species exceeding their current climatic tolerance (i.e. safety margin) for mean annual temperature (MAT) and annual precipitation (AP), respectively. By 2050, 13,479 (84.2%) and 9,960 (62.2%) species are predicted to be at risk from projected changes in MAT and AP, respectively, with risk increasing in cities at lower latitudes. Our results can aid evaluation of the impacts of climate change on urban forests and identify the species most at risk. Considering future climates when selecting species for urban plantings will enhance the long-term societal benefits provided by urban forests, including their contribution to mitigating the magnitude and impacts of climate change.

Unexpected global patterns in plant vulnerability to climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Tomas Sentinella ◽  
William B. Sherwin ◽  
Catherine A. Offord ◽  
Angela Moles
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Tropical Environments ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Grasslands ◽  
Upper Limits ◽  
The Difference

Understanding how species will respond to climate change is critically important for managing our ecosystems into the future. However, surprisingly little is known about the distribution of risk based on the actual thermal tolerances of species, especially plants. We used germination records from 776 species to provide a global map of plant warming risk – the difference between maximum germination temperature and the predicted 2070 temperature. We then tested a series of hypotheses about factors associated with high risk. Many of our predictions were overturned. For example, although a great deal of attention has been paid to the risks faced by tropical forests, we found that the biomes most at risk were tropical grasslands, savannas and shrublands. Similarly, while we expected Australian species to have a lower warming risk due to its already variable conditions, our data showed that Australia had the highest average warming risk. Conversely, European species faced the lowest risk, with no plants examined in this study predicted to exceed their upper limits by 2070. Plants from regions with higher seasonality and higher canopy cover had lower warming risk, but the absolute range of annual temperature had no effect on risk. Therefore, the underlying factors contributing to warming risk warrant further examination. Overall, our results highlight that the regions most at risk from warming are not necessarily those with the most warming, but regions where species are closest to their upper limits. More attention needs to be given to high risk tropical environments, especially non-forest tropical environments which face the highest risk. In summary, while much of the world’s biota faces substantial threats from climate change, researchers may be surprised about where the effects are most acute.

scholarly journals The nexus of oil, conflict, and climate change vulnerability of pastoral communities in northwest Kenya

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 703-717 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Schilling ◽  
R. Locham ◽  
T. Weinzierl ◽  
J. Vivekananda ◽  
J. Scheffran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Oil Exploration ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change

Abstract. Turkana, in northwest Kenya, is the country's poorest and least developed county. Pastoralism in Turkana is well adapted to the harsh climatic conditions, but an increase in drought frequency associated with global climate change and intensifying violent conflicts between pastoral groups poses significant challenges for local communities. The conflicts are especially violent in the border region between the Turkana and the Pokot communities. In this very region significant oil reserves have recently been found. The first aim of this paper is to analyse how the oil exploration affects the communities' vulnerability to climate change. Secondly, the paper explores the risk of the oil explorations creating new conflicts or aggravating existing ones. The primary method of the study is qualitative field research supplemented with a geo-spatial analysis of conflict data. The field research was conducted in October 2013 and April 2014 in three villages with different levels of engagement with the oil exploration. At the time of the research, oil exploration was expected close to Lokwamosing, while it had recently started in the vicinity of Lopii and had been ongoing for a longer time close to Nakukulas. The findings suggest that the oil exploration increases the community's vulnerability to climate change. Further, unmet community expectations for water, employment and development pose a significant risk for violent conflict between local communities and the operating oil company. Intercommunal conflict over water and land could increase as well.

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