Unexpected global patterns in plant vulnerability to climate change

Understanding how species will respond to climate change is critically important for managing our ecosystems into the future. However, surprisingly little is known about the distribution of risk based on the actual thermal tolerances of species, especially plants. We used germination records from 776 species to provide a global map of plant warming risk – the difference between maximum germination temperature and the predicted 2070 temperature. We then tested a series of hypotheses about factors associated with high risk. Many of our predictions were overturned. For example, although a great deal of attention has been paid to the risks faced by tropical forests, we found that the biomes most at risk were tropical grasslands, savannas and shrublands. Similarly, while we expected Australian species to have a lower warming risk due to its already variable conditions, our data showed that Australia had the highest average warming risk. Conversely, European species faced the lowest risk, with no plants examined in this study predicted to exceed their upper limits by 2070. Plants from regions with higher seasonality and higher canopy cover had lower warming risk, but the absolute range of annual temperature had no effect on risk. Therefore, the underlying factors contributing to warming risk warrant further examination. Overall, our results highlight that the regions most at risk from warming are not necessarily those with the most warming, but regions where species are closest to their upper limits. More attention needs to be given to high risk tropical environments, especially non-forest tropical environments which face the highest risk. In summary, while much of the world’s biota faces substantial threats from climate change, researchers may be surprised about where the effects are most acute.

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Is the Sri Lankan ecotourism industry threatened by climate change? A case study of Rekawa coastal wetland using contingent visitation approach

Environment and Development Economics ◽

10.1017/s1355770x19000391 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 25 (3) ◽

pp. 226-243

Author(s):

Nesha Dushani Salpage ◽

Margrethe Aanesen ◽

Oscar Amarasinghe

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

At Risk ◽

Coastal Wetland ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Demographic Characteristics ◽

Sri Lankan ◽

Environmental Index ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

The Difference

AbstractThis study investigates intended visitation behavior of tourists toward Rekawa wetland under anticipated climate change (CC) scenarios. An interview-based contingent visitation survey was conducted with 365 foreign and domestic tourists to estimate the effects of CC on future visitation. Based on two IPCC scenarios using two direct and three indirect climatic factors, we composed a CC environmental index. The results show a decline in number of trips equal to 43 per cent and 53 per cent under scenarios 1 and 2 respectively, but the difference is not significant. Foreign and domestic tourists differ significantly with regard to socio-demographic characteristics and beliefs about CC effects at Rekawa. Controlling for such differences, we demonstrate that foreign tourists are less likely than domestic tourists to reduce future visitation to Rekawa due to CC impacts. Still, the future of ecotourism at Rekawa wetland is at risk if adaptation measures are not taken to meet CC impacts.

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Climate-change risk analysis for global urban forests

10.1101/2021.05.09.443030 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez ◽

John B Baumgartner ◽

Linda J Beaumont ◽

Jonathan Lenoir ◽

David A Nipperess ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

At Risk ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Safety Margin ◽

Urban Forests ◽

Economic Benefits ◽

Mean Annual Temperature ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Urban forests (i.e. all vegetation present in urban areas), provide environmental and socio-economic benefits to more than half of the global population. Projected climate change threatens these benefits to society. Here, we assess vulnerability to climate change of 16,006 plant species present in the urban forests of 1,010 cities within 93 countries, using three vulnerability metrics: exposure, safety margin and risk. Exposure expresses the magnitude of projected changes in climate in a given area, safety margin measures species' sensitivity to climate change, and risk is the difference between exposure and safety margin. We identified 9,676 (60.5%) and 8,344 (52.1%) species exceeding their current climatic tolerance (i.e. safety margin) for mean annual temperature (MAT) and annual precipitation (AP), respectively. By 2050, 13,479 (84.2%) and 9,960 (62.2%) species are predicted to be at risk from projected changes in MAT and AP, respectively, with risk increasing in cities at lower latitudes. Our results can aid evaluation of the impacts of climate change on urban forests and identify the species most at risk. Considering future climates when selecting species for urban plantings will enhance the long-term societal benefits provided by urban forests, including their contribution to mitigating the magnitude and impacts of climate change.

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Estimation of Prevalence of Osteoporosis Using OSTA and Its Correlation with Sociodemographic Factors, Disability and Comorbidities

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16132338 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (13) ◽

pp. 2338 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Peizhi Wang ◽

Edimansyah Abdin ◽

Saleha Shafie ◽

Siow Ann Chong ◽

Janhavi Ajit Vaingankar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

High Risk ◽

Protective Factor ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Risk Index ◽

Sociodemographic Factors ◽

World Health ◽

Factors Associated ◽

Prevention Of Osteoporosis ◽

Health Organization

Osteoporosis is a growing concern for an aging society. The study aimed to estimate the prevalence of older adults who were at risk of osteoporosis and explore factors associated with osteoporosis. The relationship between the risk of osteoporosis, chronic conditions and disability was also explored. We hypothesized that respondents with high risk index of osteoporosis would be associated with greater disability. Participants aged 60 years and above (N = 2565) who were representative of Singapore’s multiethnic population were recruited. The Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA) was used to classify the risk of osteoporosis. Information on sociodemographic details and chronic diseases were collected, while severity of disability was measured using the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0. The overall prevalence of the respondents who were at risk of osteoporosis was 52%. Those belonging to an older age, Chinese, female, never married or widowed, lower education and retired were associated with a higher risk of osteoporosis. A diagnosis of diabetes or hypertension was a protective factor against the risk of osteoporosis. High risk of osteoporosis was not associated with disability. Our findings highlighted specific factors associated with the risk of osteoporosis that could be useful for the prevention of osteoporosis and fractures.

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Thermal tolerance, acclimatory capacity and vulnerability to global climate change

Biology Letters ◽

10.1098/rsbl.2007.0408 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 99-102 ◽

Cited By ~ 193

Author(s):

Piero Calosi ◽

David T Bilton ◽

John I Spicer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

At Risk ◽

Thermal Tolerance ◽

Global Climate ◽

Marine Animals ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Diving Beetles ◽

Mountain Systems ◽

Future Warming ◽

Upper Thermal Tolerance

Despite evidence that organismal distributions are shifting in response to recent climatic warming, we have little information on direct links between species' physiology and vulnerability to climate change. We demonstrate a positive relationship between upper thermal tolerance and its acclimatory ability in a well-defined clade of closely related European diving beetles. We predict that species with the lowest tolerance to high temperatures will be most at risk from the adverse effects of future warming, since they have both low absolute thermal tolerance and poor acclimatory ability. Upper thermal tolerance is also positively related to species' geographical range size, meaning that species most at risk are already the most geographically restricted ones, being endemic to Mediterranean mountain systems. Our findings on the relationship between tolerance and acclimatory ability contrast with results from marine animals, suggesting that generalizations regarding thermal tolerance and responses to future rapid climate change may be premature.

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A Social and Psychiatric Survey of Unemployment among Young People

Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry ◽

10.3109/00048678409158782 ◽

1984 ◽

Vol 18 (2) ◽

pp. 135-143 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Robert Finlay-Jones ◽

Bob Eckhardt

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

High Risk ◽

Young People ◽

Psychiatric Disorder ◽

Men And Women ◽

The Difference

Unemployment raised the odds of having a psychiatric disorder by a factor of six in this sample of 401 young single people. The effect of unemployment was borne by men and women equally, since the difference between the sexes was preserved in the proportion who had a psychiatric disorder. Those particularly at risk for psychiatric disorder were men who were dismissed, who could not borrow money readily, and who had large debts. Women at high risk were those who resigned, and who could not borrow money readily.

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Divergence of actual and reference evapotranspiration observations for irrigated sugarcane with windy tropical conditions

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-19-583-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

pp. 583-599 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

R. G. Anderson ◽

D. Wang ◽

R. Tirado-Corbalá ◽

H. Zhang ◽

J. E. Ayars

Keyword(s):

Reference Evapotranspiration ◽

Canopy Cover ◽

Stomatal Resistance ◽

Canopy Resistance ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Tropical Environments ◽

Tropical Conditions ◽

The Difference ◽

American Society ◽

Reference Et

Abstract. Standardized reference evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem-specific vegetation coefficients are frequently used to estimate actual ET. However, equations for calculating reference ET have not been well validated in tropical environments. We measured ET (ETEC) using eddy covariance (EC) towers at two irrigated sugarcane fields on the leeward (dry) side of Maui, Hawaii, USA in contrasting climates. We calculated reference ET at the fields using the short (ET0) and tall (ETr) vegetation versions of the American Society for Civil Engineers (ASCE) equation. The ASCE equations were compared to the Priestley–Taylor ET (ETPT) and ETEC. Reference ET from the ASCE approaches exceeded ETEC during the mid-period (when vegetation coefficients suggest ETEC should exceed reference ET). At the windier tower site, cumulative ETr exceeded ETEC by 854 mm over the course of the mid-period (267 days). At the less windy site, mid-period ETr still exceeded ETEC, but the difference was smaller (443 mm). At both sites, ETPT approximated mid-period ETEC more closely than the ASCE equations ((ETPT-ETEC) < 170 mm). Analysis of applied water and precipitation, soil moisture, leaf stomatal resistance, and canopy cover suggest that the lower observed ETEC was not the result of water stress or reduced vegetation cover. Use of a custom-calibrated bulk canopy resistance improved the reference ET estimate and reduced seasonal ET discrepancy relative to ETPT and ETEC in the less windy field and had mixed performance in the windier field. These divergences suggest that modifications to reference ET equations may be warranted in some tropical regions.

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Divergence of reference evapotranspiration observations with windy tropical conditions

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-11-6473-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 6473-6518 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

R. G. Anderson ◽

D. Wang ◽

R. Tirado-Corbalá ◽

H. Zhang ◽

J. E. Ayars

Keyword(s):

Reference Evapotranspiration ◽

Canopy Cover ◽

Stomatal Resistance ◽

Canopy Resistance ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Tropical Environments ◽

Tropical Conditions ◽

The Difference ◽

American Society ◽

Reference Et

Abstract. Standardized reference evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem-specific vegetation coefficients are frequently used to estimate actual ET. However, equations for calculating reference ET have not been well validated in tropical environments. We measured ET (ETEC) using Eddy Covariance (EC) towers at two irrigated sugarcane fields on the leeward (dry) side of Maui, Hawaii, USA in contrasting climates. We calculated reference ET at the fields using the short (ET0) and tall (ETr) vegetation versions of the American Society for Civil Engineers (ASCE) equation. The ASCE equations were compared to the Priestley–Taylor ET (ETPT) and ETEC. Reference ET from the ASCE approaches exceeded ETEC during the mid-period (when vegetation coefficients suggest ETEC should exceed reference ET). At the windier tower site, cumulative ETr exceeded ETEC by 854 mm over the course of the mid-period (267 days). At the less windy site, mid-period ETr still exceeded ETEC, but the difference was smaller (443 mm). At both sites, ETPT approximated mid-period ETEC more closely than the ASCE equations ((ETPT–ETEC) < 170 mm). Analysis of applied water and precipitation, soil moisture, leaf stomatal resistance, and canopy cover suggest that the lower observed ETEC was not the result of water stress or reduced vegetation cover. Use of a custom calibrated bulk canopy resistance improved the reference ET estimate and reduced seasonal ET discrepancy relative to ETPT and ETEC for the less windy field and had mixed performance at the windier field. These divergences suggest that modifications to reference ET equations may be warranted in some tropical regions.

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Global environmental change II: Political economies of vulnerability to climate change

Progress in Human Geography ◽

10.1177/0309132519898254 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 44 (6) ◽

pp. 1172-1184 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Jon Barnett

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

At Risk ◽

Political Economy ◽

Environmental Change ◽

Global Environmental Change ◽

Progress Report ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Global Environmental ◽

Political Economies ◽

Political Economic

Though rarely described as such, vulnerability to climate change is fundamentally a matter of political economy. This progress report provides a reading of contemporary research on vulnerability to climate change through a political economic lens. It interprets the research as explaining the interplay between ideas about vulnerability, the institutions that create vulnerability, and those actors with interests in vulnerability. It highlights research that critiques the idea of vulnerability, and that demonstrates the agency of those at risk as they navigate the intersecting, multi-scalar and teleconnected institutions that shape their choices in adapting to climate change. The report also highlights research that is tracking the way powerful institutions and interests that create vulnerability are themselves adapting by appropriating the cause of the vulnerable, depoliticising the causes of vulnerability, and promoting innovations in finance and markets as solutions. In these ways, political and economic institutions are sustaining themselves and capitalising on the opportunities presented by climate change at the expense of those most at risk.

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Factors associated with single-family home survival in the 2018 Camp Fire, California

10.21203/rs.3.rs-580864/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Eric Knapp ◽

Yana S Valachovic ◽

Stephen L Quarles ◽

Nels G Johnson

Keyword(s):

Canopy Cover ◽

Radiant Heat ◽

Building Code ◽

Fire Damage ◽

Single Family ◽

Construction Time ◽

Factors Associated ◽

Survival Percentage ◽

Before And After ◽

The Difference

Abstract Background The 2018 Camp Fire, which destroyed 18,804 structures in northern California, including most of the town of Paradise, provided an opportunity to investigate vegetation and housing factors associated with home loss and determine whether California's 2008 adoption of exterior building codes for homes in the wildland-urban-interface (WUI) improved survival. We randomly sampled single-family homes constructed: before 1997, 1997 to 2007, and 2008 to 2018, the latter two time periods being before and after changes to the building code. We then quantified the nearby overstory canopy cover and the distance to the nearest destroyed home and structure from aerial imagery. Using post-fire photographs, we also assessed fire damage and assigned a cause for damaged but not destroyed homes. Results Homes built prior to 1997 fared poorly, with only 11.5% surviving, compared with 38.5% survival for homes built in 1997 and after. The difference in survival percentage for homes built immediately before and after the adoption of Chap. 7A in the California Building Code (37% and 44%, respectively), was not statistically significant. Distance to nearest destroyed structure, number of structures destroyed within 100 m, and overstory canopy cover within 100 m of the home were the strongest predictors of survival, but significant interactions with the construction time period suggested that factors contributing to survival differed for homes of different ages. Homes > 18 from a destroyed structure and in areas with overstory canopy cover within 30–100 m of the home of < 53% survived at a substantially higher rate. Most fire damage to surviving homes resulted from radiant heat from nearby burning structures or flame impingement from ignition of near-home combustible materials. Conclusions Strong associations between distance to nearest destroyed structure and vegetation within 100 m and home survival in the Camp Fire indicates building and vegetation modifications are possible that would substantially improve outcomes. Among those include improvements to windows and siding in closest proximity to neighboring structures, treatment of wildland fuels, and eliminating near-home combustibles, especially in areas closest to the home (0-1.5 m).

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