scholarly journals Modelling the propagation of social response during a disease outbreak

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (104) ◽  
pp. 20141105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shannon M. Fast ◽  
Marta C. González ◽  
James M. Wilson ◽  
Natasha Markuzon
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Response ◽  
Global Media ◽  
Social Responses ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
2009 H1n1

Epidemic trajectories and associated social responses vary widely between populations, with severe reactions sometimes observed. When confronted with fatal or novel pathogens, people exhibit a variety of behaviours from anxiety to hoarding of medical supplies, overwhelming medical infrastructure and rioting. We developed a coupled network approach to understanding and predicting social response. We couple the disease spread and panic spread processes and model them through local interactions between agents. The social contagion process depends on the prevalence of the disease, its perceived risk and a global media signal. We verify the model by analysing the spread of disease and social response during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Mexico City and 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome and 2009 H1N1 outbreaks in Hong Kong, accurately predicting population-level behaviour. This kind of empirically validated model is critical to exploring strategies for public health intervention, increasing our ability to anticipate the response to infectious disease outbreaks.

Emotional determinants of public responses to the risk of epidemics and pandemics: a systematic review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonis A. Kousoulis ◽  
Mark R. Francis ◽  
Imogen Grant ◽  
Heidi J Larson
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Intervention Uptake

Abstract Background Understanding how people’s emotions influence their health decisions and behaviours at a population level is fundamental to designing effective communication strategies and public health interventions for infectious disease outbreaks. This review identifies relevant research to assess the role of emotional determinants and their impact on public responses to the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, specifically in relation to the uptake of public health interventions. Methods A comprehensive systematic review was conducted exploring the differences in public responses by emotion, infection, outcome and region. A basic consensus approach was followed in which emotional stimuli were categorised as being either pleasant or unpleasant, and predisposing people to bivalent behaviour (i.e., approach or withdrawal). All primary research studies published in five global databases between 1988-2019 were eligible for inclusion. Binomial tests (against a test proportion of 0.5 or 50% for each study outcome) were performed using the direction of effect observed in each study, i.e., either favouring or not favouring intervention uptake. Results A total of 75 studies from 28 different nations were eligible for inclusion in the review. A total of 97 correlations were made between 12 emotions, 10 infectious diseases, and the uptake of seven types of public health interventions. Unpleasant emotions were evoked much more often than pleasant following public health risk communications, with fear and anxiety being the most common. Overall, moderate anxiety-related emotions (worry, anxiety, stress, concern) seemed to be much more significant motivators for public action compared to extreme unpleasant emotions (fear, panic, hopelessness, shame), which had a statistically significantly negative effect on the uptake of public health interventions in several cases. Pleasant emotions (empathy, hope) also showed promise as motivators for public health intervention uptake, but more research is needed to corroborate this. Conclusions The results of this review show that the public’s emotional responses to epidemics in the past 30 years have played a clear role in determining how successful the rollout of public health interventions has been. Emotions need to be considered in crisis communications, and these research findings can help inform communications strategies in the evolving context of the COVID-19 pandemic and future infectious disease outbreaks.

scholarly journals Predicting social response to infectious disease outbreaks from internet-based news streams

2017 ◽  
Vol 263 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 551-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shannon M. Fast ◽  
Louis Kim ◽  
Emily L. Cohn ◽  
Sumiko R. Mekaru ◽  
John S. Brownstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Social Response ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

scholarly journals The impact of community containment implementation timing on the spread of COVID-19: A simulation study

F1000Research ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Attayeb Mohsen ◽  
Ahmed Alarabi
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Final Outcome ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Network Graph ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Spread Parameters ◽  
The Impact

Background: Community containment is one of the common methods used to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks. The effectiveness of such a method depends on how strictly it is applied and the timing of its implementation. An early start and being strict is very effective; however, at the same time, it impacts freedom and economic opportunity. Here we created a simulation model to understand the effect of the starting day of community containment on the final outcome, that is, the number of those infected, hospitalized and those that died, as we followed the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We used a stochastic recursive simulation method to apply disease outbreak dynamics measures of COVID-19 as an example to simulate disease spread. Parameters are allowed to be randomly assigned between higher and lower values obtained from published COVID-19 literature. Results: We simulated the dynamics of COVID-19 spread, calculated the number of active infections, hospitalizations and deaths as the outcome of our simulation and compared these results with real world data. We also represented the details of the spread in a network graph structure, and shared the code for the simulation model to be used for examining other variables. Conclusions: Early implementation of community containment has a big impact on the final outcome of an outbreak.

scholarly journals Public perceptions of COVID-19 in Australia: perceived risk, knowledge, health-protective behaviours, and vaccine intentions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Faasse ◽  
Jill Newby
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Protective Behaviours

AbstractWidespread and sustained engagement with health-protective behaviours (i.e., hygiene and distancing) is critical to successfully managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence from previous emerging infectious disease outbreaks points to the role of perceived risk, worry, media coverage, and knowledge in shaping engagement with health-protective behaviours as well as vaccination intentions. The current study examined these factors in 2,174 Australian residents. An online survey was completed between 2-9 March 2020, at an early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia. Results revealed that two thirds of respondents were at least moderately worried about a widespread COVID-19 outbreak in Australia (which subsequently occurred). Worry about the outbreak and closely following media coverage were consistent predictors of health-protective behaviours (both over the previous month, and intended behaviours in the case of a widespread outbreak) as well as vaccination intentions. Health-behaviour engagement over the previous month was lower in some demographic groups, including males and younger individuals (18-29 age group). These was a substantial mismatch between respondents’ expected symptoms of infection and emerging evidence that a meaningful proportion of people who contract the novel coronavirus will experience asymptomatic infection (i.e., they will not experience symptoms associated with COVID-19). Only 0.3% of those in the current study believed that they personally would not experience any symptoms if they were infected. Uncertainty and misconceptions about COVID-19 were common, including one third of respondents who reported being unsure whether people are likely have natural or existing immunity. There was also uncertainty around whether specific home remedies (e.g., vitamins, saline rinses) would offer protection, whether the virus could spread via the airborne route, and whether the virus was human made and deliberately released. Such misconceptions are likely to cause concern for members of the public. These results point to areas of uncertainty that could be usefully targeted by public education campaigns, as well as psychological and demographic factors associated with engagement with health-protective behaviours. These findings offer potential pathways for interventions to encourage health-protective behaviours to reduce the spread of COVID-19.

Infectious Diseases After Tsunami Aceh (Indonesia) Experience

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 754-758
Author(s):  
Nasronudin ◽  
◽  
Juniastuti ◽  
Retno H. Oktamia ◽  
Maria I. Lusida ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Public Health Care ◽  
Upper Respiratory Infection ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Medical Needs ◽  
Laboratory Capacity

An earthquake of magnitude 9 on the Richter scale followed by a tsunami devastated large swaths of northern Indonesia within minutes on December 26, 2004. The response to this disaster has been a rapid, national and international co-coordinated effort. Combined teams were multidisciplinary, consisting of health workers such as surgeons, anesthetiststraumatologists, emergency primary care workers, nurses, microbiologists and laboratory technicians, public health physicians, very importantly logisticians, and others. The need for critical clinical care was greatest in the first 1-2 weeks, then it quickly declined. After the initial crisis period, needs quickly changed to reestablishing public health care with an emphasis on Sphere standards such as promoting access to clean water, good sanitation, adequate nutrition and access to health workers for treatment and control of common conditions such as diarrhea, malaria, and respiratory diseases. The introduction of immunization programs for diseases to victims in vulnerable location was also an important public health intervention. No major disease outbreaks occurred following the Aceh tsunami. This was in part because of most of the displaced population settled into many small places/areas with at least rudimentary sanitation. No large camps that would support the rapid spread of disease were built. There were, however, still many diseases with epidemic potential found in tsunami-affected areas. In Aceh, the rate of diarrhea as a disease of immediate concern was 16%. Acute upper respiratory infection and pneumonia as diseases related to over-crowding were found to be 21%, 20% and 3%, respectively. The number of persons with malaria as a disease posing threats in the first month was no greater (4%) than previously, because there was an established-large vector control project. Proper national and international coordination and total health response considering public health, laboratory capacity and medical needs are important lessons to learn for anticipating the possibility of infectious disease outbreaks following the tsunami in Aceh.

scholarly journals ASPEK HUKUM PELAKSANAAN VAKSINASI COVID-19 DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 1263
Author(s):  
Stephanie PD ◽  
Enjelina S ◽  
Angelica MF ◽  
Imelda Martinelli
Keyword(s):  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
World Health ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
Presidential Decree ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Right

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines the 2019-nCoV type of corona virus as a pandemic of a new type of disease spread throughout the world, this is not only a public health case, but will touch every sector. The COVID-19 (cov-19) pandemic has resulted in an emergency for the healthy condition of the Indonesian people, so President Joko Widodo has issued Presidential Decree No. 11/2020. In "procuring vaccines and implementing vaccinations for the prevention of the COVID-19 pandemic" President Joko Widodo stipulates Presidential Decree No. 14/2021. In choosing health facilities and infrastructure independently & responsibly, every human being has the right to choose according to his wishes, due to the pandemic conditions that concern the interests of the people and the state, so giving vaccinations is actually voluntary because emergency conditions can be forced. Although there is already a legal umbrella for Law No. 4/1984: "Infectious Disease Outbreaks" and Law No. 6/2018: "Health Quarantine", many in the field agree and vice versa on the implementation of vaccination in the community. The purpose of the study is to understand the nature of the administration of the corona vaccine according to the laws and regulations adopted and the factors that occur in society. Using a normative method with a qualitative approach. Giving vaccines to the community is forced. limited availability of vaccines; there are those who support there are those who are antipathy from the community regarding the implementation of vaccination; uneven distribution. The reason for the community's refusal to receive the Covid-19 vaccine is due to different trusts, this is supported by the lack of communication channels as well as the delivery of information that is not well targeted, the data on the type of vaccine is limited in information, the availability of the Covid-19 vaccine, as well as safe conditions. The government should fully support the Nusantara vaccine and the Merah Putih vaccine developed by Indonesian researchers. World Health Organizatioan (WHO) mendefinisikan Virus corona jenis Virus 2019-nCoV sebagai pandemi jenis penyebaran penyakit baru keseluruh dunia, hal ini bukan hanya kasus kesehatan masyarakat, tapi akan menyentuh setiap sektor. Pandemi covid-19(cov-19) mengakibatkan kedaruratan kondisi sehat khalayak Indonesia, sehingga Presiden Joko Widodo menetapkan KeppresNo.11/2020. Dalam “pengadaan vaksin dan pelaksanaan vaksinasi untuk penanggulangan pandemi covid-19” Presiden Joko widodo menetapkan Perpres No.14/2021. Dalam memilih sarana juga prasarana kesehatan secara mandiri & bertangggungjawab tiap manusia punya hak memilih sesuai dengan keinginannya, berhubung kondisi pandemi yang menyangkut kepentingan rakyat dan negara lebih diutamakan, jadi pemberian vaksinasi yang sebenaranya bersifat volunteer karena kondisi darurat bisa bersifat dipaksakan. Meskipun sudah ada payung hukum UU No.4/1984:”Wabah Penyakit Menular” serta UU No.6/2018:“Kekarantinaan Kesehatan”, tapi dilapangan banyak yang setuju dan sebaliknya pada pelaksanaan vaksinasi dimasyarakat. Tujuan penelitian untuk memahami sifat dari pemberian vaksin corona menurut peraturan perundangan yang dianut dan faktor- faktor yang terjadi di masyarakat.  Memakai metode normatif dengan pendekatan kualitatif. Pemberian vaksin kepada masyarakat bersifat memaksa. keterbatasan ketersedian vaksin; ada yang mendukung ada yang antipati dari masyarakat terkait pelaksanaan vaksinasi; penyaluran yang tidak merata. Alasan penolakan masyarakat dalam menerima vaksin Covid-19 dikarenakan adanya trust yang berbeda,  hal ini didukung kurangnya alur komunikasi juga cara penyampaian informasi yang kurang tepat sasaran, data jenis vaksin terbatas informasinya, ketersediaan vaksinCov-19, juga syarat aman. Pemerintah selayaknya mendukung penuh vaksin Nusantara dan vaksin Merah Putih  yang dikembangkan para peneliti Indonesia.

scholarly journals A case study of the evaluation of a public health intervention

2006 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley Forssman ◽  
Leena Gupta ◽  
Graham Burgess
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Action ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Health Action

Large public health interventions to control infectious disease outbreaks are common, but rigorous evaluation to improve the quality and effectiveness of these is rarely undertaken. Following a large community-based clinic to prevent a hepatitis A outbreak, a multifaceted and multidisciplinary evaluation was conducted involving consumers, health professionals and industry partners. The results of this evaluation were used to produce practical operational guidelines for the planning and conduct of future interventions. These guidelines have been distributed to all public health units in New South Wales and may be included in the next edition of the NSW Health notifiable diseases manual. The evaluation approach can be applied to all public health interventions across NSW and Australia to assist in the development of operational guidelines, in order to increase the quality of public health action in outbreak prevention.

scholarly journals Intervention Fatigue is the Primary Cause of Strong Secondary Waves in the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 9592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristoffer Rypdal ◽  
Filippo Maria Bianchi ◽  
Martin Rypdal
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Response ◽  
Social Responses ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

As of November 2020, the number of COVID-19 cases was increasing rapidly in many countries. In Europe, the virus spread slowed considerably in the late spring due to strict lockdown, but a second wave of the pandemic grew throughout the fall. In this study, we first reconstruct the time evolution of the effective reproduction numbers R(t) for each country by integrating the equations of the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. We cluster countries based on the estimated R(t) through a suitable time series dissimilarity. The clustering result suggests that simple dynamical mechanisms determine how countries respond to changes in COVID-19 case counts. Inspired by these results, we extend the simple SIR model for disease spread to include a social response to explain the number X(t) of new confirmed daily cases. In particular, we characterize the social response with a first-order model that depends on three parameters ν1,ν2,ν3. The parameter ν1 describes the effect of relaxed intervention when the incidence rate is low; ν2 models the impact of interventions when incidence rate is high; ν3 represents the fatigue, i.e., the weakening of interventions as time passes. The proposed model reproduces typical evolving patterns of COVID-19 epidemic waves observed in many countries. Estimating the parameters ν1,ν2,ν3 and initial conditions, such as R0, for different countries helps to identify important dynamics in their social responses. One conclusion is that the leading cause of the strong second wave in Europe in the fall of 2020 was not the relaxation of interventions during the summer, but rather the failure to enforce interventions in the fall.

scholarly journals Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience

2017 ◽  
Vol 372 (1721) ◽  
pp. 20160371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Cori ◽  
Christl A. Donnelly ◽  
Ilaria Dorigatti ◽  
Neil M. Ferguson ◽  
Christophe Fraser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Population Level ◽  
West African ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
The West ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Exposure Data ◽  
Level Data

Following the detection of an infectious disease outbreak, rapid epidemiological assessment is critical for guiding an effective public health response. To understand the transmission dynamics and potential impact of an outbreak, several types of data are necessary. Here we build on experience gained in the West African Ebola epidemic and prior emerging infectious disease outbreaks to set out a checklist of data needed to: (1) quantify severity and transmissibility; (2) characterize heterogeneities in transmission and their determinants; and (3) assess the effectiveness of different interventions. We differentiate data needs into individual-level data (e.g. a detailed list of reported cases), exposure data (e.g. identifying where/how cases may have been infected) and population-level data (e.g. size/demographics of the population(s) affected and when/where interventions were implemented). A remarkable amount of individual-level and exposure data was collected during the West African Ebola epidemic, which allowed the assessment of (1) and (2). However, gaps in population-level data (particularly around which interventions were applied when and where) posed challenges to the assessment of (3). Here we highlight recurrent data issues, give practical suggestions for addressing these issues and discuss priorities for improvements in data collection in future outbreaks. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control’.

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