scholarly journals The impact of temperature changes on vector-borne disease transmission: Culicoides midges and bluetongue virus

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (128) ◽  
pp. 20160481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel P. C. Brand ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Bluetongue Virus ◽  
Optimal Temperature ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

It is a long recognized fact that climatic variations, especially temperature, affect the life history of biting insects. This is particularly important when considering vector-borne diseases, especially in temperate regions where climatic fluctuations are large. In general, it has been found that most biological processes occur at a faster rate at higher temperatures, although not all processes change in the same manner. This differential response to temperature, often considered as a trade-off between onward transmission and vector life expectancy, leads to the total transmission potential of an infected vector being maximized at intermediate temperatures. Here we go beyond the concept of a static optimal temperature, and mathematically model how realistic temperature variation impacts transmission dynamics. We use bluetongue virus (BTV), under UK temperatures and transmitted by Culicoides midges, as a well-studied example where temperature fluctuations play a major role. We first consider an optimal temperature profile that maximizes transmission, and show that this is characterized by a warm day to maximize biting followed by cooler weather to maximize vector life expectancy. This understanding can then be related to recorded representative temperature patterns for England, the UK region which has experienced BTV cases, allowing us to infer historical transmissibility of BTV, as well as using forecasts of climate change to predict future transmissibility. Our results show that when BTV first invaded northern Europe in 2006 the cumulative transmission intensity was higher than any point in the last 50 years, although with climate change such high risks are the expected norm by 2050. Such predictions would indicate that regular BTV epizootics should be expected in the UK in the future.

Waterborne Diseases and Climate Change: Impact and Implications

2018 ◽  
pp. 469-484
Author(s):  
Maha Bouzid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Significant Burden ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adaptation Options

Waterborne diseases are caused by a multitude of pathogens and associated with a significant burden in both developed and developing countries. While the assessment of the adverse impacts of climate change on human heath from infectious diseases has mainly focused on vector-borne diseases, waterborne diseases prevalence and transmission patterns are also likely to be impacted by environmental change. This chapter will outline relevant waterborne pathogens, summarise the impact of climate change on disease transmission and explore climate change adaptation options in order to reduce the increased burden of waterborne diseases.

Waterborne Diseases and Climate Change

2017 ◽  
pp. 1041-1055
Author(s):  
Maha Bouzid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Waterborne Pathogens ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Significant Burden ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adaptation Options

Waterborne diseases are caused by a multitude of pathogens and associated with a significant burden in both developed and developing countries. While the assessment of the adverse impacts of climate change on human heath from infectious diseases has mainly focused on vector-borne diseases, waterborne diseases prevalence and transmission patterns are also likely to be impacted by environmental change. This chapter will outline relevant waterborne pathogens, summarise the impact of climate change on disease transmission and explore climate change adaptation options in order to reduce the increased burden of waterborne diseases.

Waterborne Diseases and Climate Change: Impact and Implications

2017 ◽  
pp. 89-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maha Bouzid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Significant Burden ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adaptation Options

Waterborne diseases are caused by a multitude of pathogens and associated with a significant burden in both developed and developing countries. While the assessment of the adverse impacts of climate change on human heath from infectious diseases has mainly focused on vector-borne diseases, waterborne diseases prevalence and transmission patterns are also likely to be impacted by environmental change. This chapter will outline relevant waterborne pathogens, summarise the impact of climate change on disease transmission and explore climate change adaptation options in order to reduce the increased burden of waterborne diseases.

Waterborne Diseases and Climate Change

2019 ◽  
pp. 1201-1216
Author(s):  
Maha Bouzid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Waterborne Pathogens ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Significant Burden ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adaptation Options

Waterborne diseases are caused by a multitude of pathogens and associated with a significant burden in both developed and developing countries. While the assessment of the adverse impacts of climate change on human heath from infectious diseases has mainly focused on vector-borne diseases, waterborne diseases prevalence and transmission patterns are also likely to be impacted by environmental change. This chapter will outline relevant waterborne pathogens, summarise the impact of climate change on disease transmission and explore climate change adaptation options in order to reduce the increased burden of waterborne diseases.

scholarly journals The contribution of changes to tax and social security to stalled life expectancy trends in Scotland: a modelling study

2020 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-214770
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Richardson ◽  
Martin Taulbut ◽  
Mark Robinson ◽  
Andrew Pulford ◽  
Gerry McCartney
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Tax Credits ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Group Sex ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Welfare Reforms ◽  
Detrimental Impact

BackgroundLife expectancy (LE) improvements have stalled, and UK tax and welfare ‘reforms’ have been proposed as a cause. We estimated the effects of tax and welfare reforms from 2010/2011 to 2021/2022 on LE and inequalities in LE in Scotland.MethodsWe applied a published estimate of the cumulative income impact of the reforms to the households within Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles. We estimated the impact on LE by applying a rate ratio for the impact of income on mortality rates (by age group, sex and SIMD quintile) and calculating the difference between inflation-only changes in benefits and the reforms.ResultsWe estimated that changes to household income resulting from the reforms would result in an additional 1041 (+3.7%) female deaths and 1013 (+3.8%) male deaths. These deaths represent an estimated reduction of female LE from 81.6 years to 81.2 years (−20 weeks), and male LE from 77.6 years to 77.2 years (−23 weeks). Cuts to benefits and tax credits were modelled to have the most detrimental impact on LE, and these were estimated to be most severe in the most deprived areas. The modelled impact on inequalities in LE was widening of the gap between the most and least deprived 20% of areas by a further 21 weeks for females and 23 weeks for males.InterpretationThis study provides further evidence that austerity, in the form of cuts to social security benefits, is likely to be an important cause of stalled LE across the UK.

scholarly journals Sheep scab spatial distribution: the roles of transmission pathways

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Joanne Nixon ◽  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Richard Wall
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Infected Sheep ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Psoroptes Ovis ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Sheep Scab ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Ovine psoroptic mange (sheep scab) is a highly pathogenic contagious infection caused by the mite Psoroptes ovis. Following 21 years in which scab was eradicated in the UK, it was inadvertently reintroduced in 1972 and, despite the implementation of a range of control methods, its prevalence increased steadily thereafter. Recent reports of resistance to macrocyclic lactone treatments may further exacerbate control problems. A better understanding of the factors that facilitate its transmission are required to allow improved management of this disease. Transmission of infection occurs within and between contiguous sheep farms via infected sheep-to-sheep or sheep–environment contact and through long-distance movements of infected sheep, such as through markets. Methods A stochastic metapopulation model was used to investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the spatial pattern of outbreaks. A range of model scenarios were considered following the initial infection of a cluster of highly connected contiguous farms. Results Scab spreads between clusters of neighbouring contiguous farms after introduction but when long-distance movements are excluded, infection then self-limits spatially at boundaries where farm connectivity is low. Inclusion of long-distance movements is required to generate the national patterns of disease spread observed. Conclusions Preventing the movement of scab infested sheep through sales and markets is essential for any national management programme. If effective movement control can be implemented, regional control in geographic areas where farm densities are high would allow more focussed cost-effective scab management. Graphical Abstract

scholarly journals Impacts of the Fossil Fuel Divestment Movement: Effects on Finance, Policy and Public Discourse

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 2529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noam Bergman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Fiduciary Duty ◽  
Student Groups ◽  
Finance Industry ◽  
Fossil Fuel Industry ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The fossil fuel divestment movement campaigns for removing investments from fossil fuel companies as a strategy to combat climate change. It is a bottom-up movement, largely based in university student groups, although it has rapidly spread to other institutions. Divestment has been criticised for its naiveté and hard-line stance and dismissed as having little impact on fossil fuel finance. I analyse the impact of divestment through reviewing academic and grey literature, complemented by interviews with activists and financial actors, using a theoretical framework that draws on social movement theory. While the direct impacts of divestment are small, the indirect impacts, in terms of public discourse shift, are significant. Divestment has put questions of finance and climate change on the agenda and played a part in changing discourse around the legitimacy, reputation and viability of the fossil fuel industry. This cultural impact contributed to changes in the finance industry through new demands by shareholders and investors and to changes in political discourse, such as rethinking the notion of ‘fiduciary duty.’ Finally, divestment had significant impact on its participants in terms of empowerment and played a part in the revitalisation of the environmental movement in the UK and elsewhere.

scholarly journals Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. e0009182
Author(s):  
Cameron Nosrat ◽  
Jonathan Altamirano ◽  
Assaf Anyamba ◽  
Jamie M. Caldwell ◽  
Richard Damoah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
Mosquito Abundance ◽  
Targeted Interventions ◽  
Extreme Climate Events ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Climate Events ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and variability influence temperature and rainfall, which impact vector abundance and the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Freshwater availability and temperature affect dengue vector populations via a variety of biological processes and thus influence the ability of mosquitoes to effectively transmit disease. However, the effect of droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold waves is not well understood. Using vector, climate, and dengue disease data collected between 2013 and 2019 in Kenya, this retrospective cohort study aims to elucidate the impact of extreme rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and the risk of arboviral infections. To define extreme periods of rainfall and land surface temperature (LST), we calculated monthly anomalies as deviations from long-term means (1983–2019 for rainfall, 2000–2019 for LST) across four study locations in Kenya. We classified extreme climate events as the upper and lower 10% of these calculated LST or rainfall deviations. Monthly Ae. aegypti abundance was recorded in Kenya using four trapping methods. Blood samples were also collected from children with febrile illness presenting to four field sites and tested for dengue virus using an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We found that mosquito eggs and adults were significantly more abundant one month following an abnormally wet month. The relationship between mosquito abundance and dengue risk follows a non-linear association. Our findings suggest that early warnings and targeted interventions during periods of abnormal rainfall and temperature, especially flooding, can potentially contribute to reductions in risk of viral transmission.

scholarly journals Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Popula-Tion-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1180
Author(s):  
Tinevimbo Shiri ◽  
Marc Evans ◽  
Carla A. Talarico ◽  
Angharad R. Morgan ◽  
Maaz Mussad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Debate persists around the risk–benefit balance of vaccinating adolescents and children against COVID-19. Central to this debate is quantifying the contribution of adolescents and children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential impact of vaccinating these age groups. In this study, we present a novel SEIR mathematical disease transmission model that quantifies the impact of different vaccination strategies on population-level SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical outcomes. The model employs both age- and time-dependent social mixing patterns to capture the impact of changes in restrictions. The model was used to assess the impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on the natural history of the COVID-19 pandemic across all age groups, using the UK as an example. The base case model demonstrates significant increases in COVID-19 disease burden in the UK following a relaxation of restrictions, if vaccines are limited to those ≥18 years and vulnerable adolescents (≥12 years). Including adolescents and children in the vaccination program could reduce overall COVID-related mortality by 57%, and reduce cases of long COVID by 75%. This study demonstrates that vaccinating adolescents and children has the potential to play a vital role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, and subsequent COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, across all ages. Our results have major global public health implications and provide valuable information to inform a potential pandemic exit strategy.

scholarly journals Population dynamics modelling : Impact of climate change on tick populations

2016 ◽  
Vol Volume 22 - 2016-2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leila Khouaja ◽  
Slimane Ben Miled ◽  
Hassan Hbid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Physiological State ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Disease Evolution ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Host Interaction ◽  
Animaux Domestiques ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Dynamics Modelling

Epidemiology had an important development these last years allowing the resolution of a large number of problems and had good prediction on disease evolution. However, the transmission of several vector-borne diseases is closely connected to environmental protagonists, specially in the parasite-host interaction. Moreover, understanding the disease transmission is related to studying the ecology of all protagonists. These two levels of complexity(epidemiology and ecology) cannot be separated and have to be studied as a whole in a systematic way. Our goal is to understand the interaction of climate change on the evolution of a disease when the vector has ecological niche that depends on physiological state of development. We are particularly interested in tick vector diseases which are serious health problem affecting humans as well as domestic animals in many parts of the world. These infections are transmitted through a bite of an infected tick, and it appears that most of these infections are widely present in some wildlife species. L'épidémiologie a connu un développement important ces dernières années. Cette discipline a permis une meilleure compréhension del'évolution de maladies. Cependant, plusieurs maladies à transmission vectorielle sont étroitement liées aux protagonistes environnementaux. Ce constat est particulièrement vrai dans le contexte des interactions du parasite avec son hôte. De plus, comprendre la transmission de maladie est lié à l'étude de l'écologie de tous les protagonistes. Notre objectif est de comprendre l'influence du changement climatique sur l'évolution des maladies lorsque la niche écologique du vecteur dépend de l'état de développement physiologique de son hôte. Nous sommes particulièrement intéressés par les maladies vectorielles à tiques qui constituent un grave problème de santé touchant l'être humain et les animaux domestiques dans de nombreuses régions du monde. Ces infections sont généralement transmises par la piqûre d'une tique infectée et il apparaît que la plupart de ces infections sont largement présentées dans certaines espèces fauniques

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