scholarly journals Quantifying greenhouse-gas emissions from atmospheric measurements: a critical reality check for climate legislation

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1943) ◽  
pp. 1925-1942 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray F. Weiss ◽  
Ronald G. Prinn
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Inverse Modelling ◽  
Carbon Equivalent ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Regional Emissions

Emissions reduction legislation relies upon ‘bottom-up’ accounting of industrial and biogenic greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions at their sources. Yet, even for relatively well-constrained industrial GHGs, global emissions based on ‘top-down’ methods that use atmospheric measurements often agree poorly with the reported bottom-up emissions. For emissions reduction legislation to be effective, it is essential that these discrepancies be resolved. Because emissions are regulated nationally or regionally, not globally, top-down estimates must also be determined at these scales. High-frequency atmospheric GHG measurements at well-chosen station locations record ‘pollution events’ above the background values that result from regional emissions. By combining such measurements with inverse methods and atmospheric transport and chemistry models, it is possible to map and quantify regional emissions. Even with the sparse current network of measurement stations and current inverse-modelling techniques, it is possible to rival the accuracies of regional ‘bottom-up’ emission estimates for some GHGs. But meeting the verification goals of emissions reduction legislation will require major increases in the density and types of atmospheric observations, as well as expanded inverse-modelling capabilities. The cost of this effort would be minor when compared with current investments in carbon-equivalent trading, and would reduce the volatility of that market and increase investment in emissions reduction.

scholarly journals A Study on Selecting Greenhouse Gas Reduction Options: A Simulation Analysis for Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13530
Author(s):  
Anh Quynh Tang ◽  
Takeshi Mizunoya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Ghg Mitigation ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Subsidy Rate

When it comes to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, both bottom-up and top-down policies have limitations. Bottom-up policies are region-specific and cannot be applied at the national level. Top-down policies may not balance the considerations of economic growth and the environment. Therefore, a combined approach is necessary. This Vietnamese case study investigates optimal GHG mitigation options for both economic development and emission reduction by simulating four scenarios characterized by the different carbon tax and subsidy rates. Interventions, like replacing old buses with low-carbon buses and conventional electricity generation with solar power, are considered in a dynamic input–output framework. The objective function is Green GDP—industries’ total value added reflecting GHG emissions’ social cost. The simulation model comprises four cases: business as usual, low subsidy rate (up to 10%), medium subsidy rate (up to 20%), and high subsidy rate (up to 30%), which are analyzed on parameters, including economic development, GHG emissions, and development of innovative sectors, like transportation and electricity. In three cases with different subsidy rates, the optimal carbon tax is simulated at the rate of USD 1/tCO2 equivalent, the lowest rate among the world’s current carbon prices. In addition, the medium subsidy (up to 20%) option yields the most competent scheme, with the highest GHG emission reduction and economic development effectiveness.

Top-down Atmospheric Inventories of CO2 and CH4 to Support the Global Stocktakes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Crisp ◽  
Mark Dowell ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Time Resolved ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
Task Team ◽  
Developed Nations

<p>Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to report GHG emissions and removals to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which will evaluate progress toward the NDCs through Global Stocktakes (GSTs) conducted at five-year intervals, the first of which is scheduled in 2023. National emission reports are based on “bottom-up” inventories of emissions or removals, derived from statistics such as the number tons of coal or barrels of oil delivered to the commercial, residential, industrial or transportation sectors or the number of acres of forest converted to agriculture. These methods can provide accurate estimates for fossil fuel emissions, but are somewhat less reliable for tracking changes in emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) or rapid changes in emissions due to disturbance events, such as hurricanes, drought, wildfires, or climate change.</p><p>CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub>  emissions and removals can also be estimated using high resolution, time-resolved measurements of their concentrations in the atmosphere. These data are analyzed with atmospheric inverse models to derive the flux distribution needed to match the observed atmospheric concentrations in the presence of the winds. These top-down atmospheric inventories complement bottom-up inventories by providing an integrated constraint on emissions from all sources and removals by all sinks. They are less source specific than bottom-up inventories, but are ideal for tracking rapid changes in large emitters or changes in emissions or uptake by forests, crops or the ocean associated with human activities, severe weather or climate change.</p><p>The GHG Task Team of the Joint CEOS/CGMS Working Group on Climate has embarked on an ambitious effort to use available ground-based and space based atmospheric measurements of CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> to develop a pilot, top-down atmospheric inventory to support the 2023 GST. CO<sub>2</sub> estimates derived from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) data will be combined with surface CO<sub>2</sub> measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) and its partners to construct a CO<sub>2</sub> inventory. CH<sub>4</sub> estimates derived from Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) and the Copernicus Sentinel 5 Precursor (S5P) data will be combined with ground based GHG data to construct a CH<sub>4</sub> inventory. These inventories will be compared with results from a parallel effort within CEOS to produce space-based bottom-up inventories for emissions and removals by AFOLU to provide more source specific constraints on emissions and removals.</p><p>With the current measurement and modeling capabilities, these pilot inventories may not improve the results delivered by developed nations, where high-quality bottom-up inventories have been produced for decades. They should have greater value in the developing world, where countries have much less experience and resources for developing inventories and/or a much larger fraction of their emissions come from AFOLU. They are also expected to yield much greater insight into the evolution of the natural carbon cycle as it responds to human activities, extreme weather and climate change. The pilot products prepared for the 2023 Global Stocktake will provide the basis for iterative improvements in the products and their delivery to users for future GSTs.</p>

scholarly journals Limitations of the radon tracer method (RTM) to estimate regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – a case study for methane in Heidelberg

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (23) ◽  
pp. 17907-17926
Author(s):  
Ingeborg Levin ◽  
Ute Karstens ◽  
Samuel Hammer ◽  
Julian DellaColetta ◽  
Fabian Maier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Inversion Layer ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Point Sources ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Tracer Method ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Ch4 Emissions ◽  
Annual Variations

Abstract. Correlations of nighttime atmospheric methane (CH4) and 222radon (222Rn) observations in Heidelberg, Germany, were evaluated with the radon tracer method (RTM) to estimate the trend of annual nocturnal CH4 emissions from 1996–2020 in the footprint of the station. After an initial 30 % decrease in emissions from 1996 to 2004, there was no further systematic trend but small inter-annual variations were observed thereafter. This is in accordance with the trend of total emissions until 2010 reported by the EDGARv6.0 inventory for the surroundings of Heidelberg and provides a fully independent top-down verification of the bottom-up inventory changes. We show that the reliability of total nocturnal CH4 emission estimates with the RTM critically depends on the accuracy and representativeness of the 222Rn exhalation rates estimated from soils in the footprint of the site. Simply using 222Rn fluxes as estimated by Karstens et al. (2015) could lead to biases in the estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes as large as a factor of 2. RTM-based GHG flux estimates also depend on the parameters chosen for the nighttime correlations of CH4 and 222Rn, such as the nighttime period for regressions and the R2 cut-off value for the goodness of the fit. Quantitative comparison of total RTM-based top-down flux estimates with bottom-up emission inventories requires representative high-resolution footprint modelling, particularly in polluted areas where CH4 emissions show large heterogeneity. Even then, RTM-based estimates are likely biased low if point sources play a significant role in the station footprint as their emissions may not be fully captured by the RTM method, for example, if stack emissions are injected above the top of the nocturnal inversion layer or if point-source emissions from the surface are not well mixed into the footprint of the measurement site. Long-term representative 222Rn flux observations in the footprint of a station are indispensable in order to apply the RTM method for reliable quantitative flux estimations of GHG emissions from atmospheric observations.

scholarly journals Verification of greenhouse gas emission reductions: the prospect of atmospheric monitoring in polluted areas

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1943) ◽  
pp. 1906-1924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingeborg Levin ◽  
Samuel Hammer ◽  
Elke Eichelmann ◽  
Felix R. Vogel
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Transport Modelling

Independent verification of greenhouse gas emissions reporting is a legal requirement of the Kyoto Protocol, which has not yet been fully accomplished. Here, we show that dedicated long-term atmospheric measurements of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), continuously conducted at polluted sites can provide the necessary tool for this undertaking. From our measurements at the semi-polluted Heidelberg site in the upper Rhine Valley, we find that in the catchment area CH 4 emissions decreased on average by 32±6% from the second half of the 1990s until the first half of the 2000s, but the observed long-term trend of emissions is considerably smaller than that previously reported for southwest Germany. In contrast, regional fossil fuel CO 2 levels, estimated from high-precision 14 CO 2 observations, do not show any significant decreasing trend since 1986, in agreement with the reported emissions for this region. In order to provide accurate verification, these regional measurements would best be accompanied by adequate atmospheric transport modelling as required to precisely determine the relevant catchment area of the measurements. Furthermore, reliable reconciliation of reported emissions will only be possible if these are known at high spatial resolution in the catchment area of the observations. This information should principally be available in all countries that regularly report their greenhouse gas emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Down scaling to regional assessment of greenhouse gas emissions to enable consistency in accounting for emissions reduction projects and national inventory accounts for northern beef production in Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra J. Eady ◽  
Guillaume Havard ◽  
Steven G. Bray ◽  
William Holmes ◽  
Javi Navarro
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Beef Production ◽  
National Inventory ◽  
State Territory

This paper explores the effect of using regional data for livestock attributes on estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the northern beef industry in Australia, compared with using state/territory-wide values, as currently used in Australia’s national GHG inventory report. Regional GHG emissions associated with beef production are reported for 21 defined agricultural statistical regions within state/territory jurisdictions. A management scenario for reduced emissions that could qualify as an Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) project was used to illustrate the effect of regional level model parameters on estimated abatement levels. Using regional parameters, instead of state level parameters, for liveweight (LW), LW gain and proportion of cows lactating and an expanded number of livestock classes, gives a 5.2% reduction in estimated emissions (range +12% to –34% across regions). Estimated GHG emissions intensity (emissions per kilogram of LW sold) varied across the regions by up to 2.5-fold, ranging from 10.5 kg CO2-e kg–1 LW sold for Darling Downs, Queensland, through to 25.8 kg CO2-e kg–1 LW sold for the Pindan and North Kimberley, Western Australia. This range was driven by differences in production efficiency, reproduction rate, growth rate and survival. This suggests that some regions in northern Australia are likely to have substantial opportunities for GHG abatement and higher livestock income. However, this must be coupled with the availability of management activities that can be implemented to improve production efficiency; wet season phosphorus (P) supplementation being one such practice. An ERF case study comparison showed that P supplementation of a typical-sized herd produced an estimated reduction of 622 t CO2-e year–1, or 7%, compared with a non-P supplemented herd. However, the different model parameters used by the National Inventory Report and ERF project means that there was an anomaly between the herd emissions for project cattle excised from the national accounts (13 479 t CO2-e year–1) and the baseline herd emissions estimated for the ERF project (8 896 t CO2-e year–1) before P supplementation was implemented. Regionalising livestock model parameters in both ERF projects and the national accounts offers the attraction of being able to more easily and accurately reflect emissions savings from this type of emissions reduction project in Australia’s national GHG accounts.

scholarly journals The State of the Netherlands v. Urgenda Foundation: Ruling of the Court of Appeal of The Hague (9 October 2018)

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benoit Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
District Court ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
The Hague ◽  
Dangerous Climate Change ◽  
Court Of Appeal

AbstractOn 9 October 2018, the Court of Appeal of The Hague (the Netherlands) upheld the District Court’s decision in the case of Urgenda, thus confirming the obligation of the Netherlands to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 25% by 2020 compared with levels in 1990. This case raised some of the thorniest issues in climate law. As the Netherlands is responsible for only a tiny fraction of global GHG emissions, is it right for a court to hold that a national emissions reduction mitigation target is necessary to prevent dangerous climate change and its impact on human rights? If so, how can this target be determined? The District Court and the Court of Appeal of The Hague have provided inspiring responses, although they are perhaps not entirely convincing.

Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials

Energy Policy ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 37 (12) ◽  
pp. 5125-5139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽  
Monique Hoogwijk ◽  
Terry Barker ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
Stefan Boeters ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Gas Emission ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Reduction Potentials ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction

scholarly journals Local Climate Action Planning as a Tool to Harness Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation and the Equity Potential of Autonomous Vehicles and On-Demand Mobility

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110525
Author(s):  
Serena Alexander ◽  
Asha Weinstein Agrawal ◽  
Benjamin Clark
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Action Planning ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Climate Action

This paper focuses on how cities can use climate action plans (CAPs) to ensure that on-demand mobility and autonomous vehicles (AVs) help reduce, rather than increase, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and inequitable impacts from the transportation system. We employed a three-pronged research strategy involving: (1) an analysis of the current literature on on-demand mobility and AVs; (2) a systematic content analysis of 23 CAPs and general plans (GPs) developed by municipalities in California; and (3) a comparison of findings from the literature and content analysis of plans to identify opportunities for GHG emissions reduction and mobility equity. Findings indicate that policy and planning discussions should consider the synergies between AVs and on-demand mobility as two closely related emerging mobility trends, as well as the key factors (e.g., vehicle electrification, fuel efficiency, use and ownership, access, and distribution, etc.) that determine whether the deployment of AVs would help reduce GHG emissions from transportation. Additionally, AVs and on-demand mobility have the potential to contribute to a more equitable transportation system by improving independence and quality of life for individuals with disabilities and the elderly, enhancing access to transit, and helping alleviate the geographic gap in public transportation services. Although many municipal CAPs and GPs in California have adopted several strategies and programs relevant to AVs and on-demand mobility, several untapped opportunities exist to harness the GHG emissions reduction and social benefits potential of AVs and on-demand mobility.

scholarly journals Toward an Operational Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Monitoring and Verification Support Capacity

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (8) ◽  
pp. E1439-E1451 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Janssens-Maenhout ◽  
B. Pinty ◽  
M. Dowell ◽  
H. Zunker ◽  
E. Andersson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
European Space Agency ◽  
Green Light ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Anthropogenic Co2 ◽  
Operational Capacity

Abstract Under the Paris Agreement (PA), progress of emission reduction efforts is tracked on the basis of regular updates to national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, referred to as bottom-up estimates. However, only top-down atmospheric measurements can provide observation-based evidence of emission trends. Today, there is no internationally agreed, operational capacity to monitor anthropogenic GHG emission trends using atmospheric measurements to complement national bottom-up inventories. The European Commission (EC), the European Space Agency, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, and international experts are joining forces to develop such an operational capacity for monitoring anthropogenic CO2 emissions as a new CO2 service under the EC’s Copernicus program. Design studies have been used to translate identified needs into defined requirements and functionalities of this anthropogenic CO2 emissions Monitoring and Verification Support (CO2MVS) capacity. It adopts a holistic view and includes components such as atmospheric spaceborne and in situ measurements, bottom-up CO2 emission maps, improved modeling of the carbon cycle, an operational data-assimilation system integrating top-down and bottom-up information, and a policy-relevant decision support tool. The CO2MVS capacity with operational capabilities by 2026 is expected to visualize regular updates of global CO2 emissions, likely at 0.05° x 0.05°. This will complement the PA’s enhanced transparency framework, providing actionable information on anthropogenic CO2 emissions that are the main driver of climate change. This information will be available to all stakeholders, including governments and citizens, allowing them to reflect on trends and effectiveness of reduction measures. The new EC gave the green light to pass the CO2MVS from exploratory to implementing phase.

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