scholarly journals Predicting current and future background ion concentrations in German surface water under climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 374 (1764) ◽  
pp. 20180004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trong Dieu Hien Le ◽  
Mira Kattwinkel ◽  
Klaus Schützenmeister ◽  
John R. Olson ◽  
Charles P. Hawkins ◽  
...  

Salinization of surface waters is a global environmental issue that can pose a regional risk to freshwater organisms, potentially leading to high environmental and economic costs. Global environmental change including climate and land use change can increase the transport of ions into surface waters. We fit both multiple linear regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models on a large spatial dataset to predict Ca 2+ (266 sites), Mg 2+ (266 sites), and (357 sites) ion concentrations as well as electrical conductivity (EC—a proxy for total dissolved solids with 410 sites) in German running water bodies. Predictions in both types of models were driven by the major factors controlling salinity including geologic and soil properties, climate, vegetation and topography. The predictive power of the two types of models was very similar, with RF explaining 71–76% of the spatial variation in ion concentrations and LR explaining 70–75% of the variance. Mean squared errors for predictions were all smaller than 0.06. The factors most strongly associated with stream ion concentrations varied among models but rock chemistry and climate were the most dominant. The RF model was subsequently used to forecast the changes in EC that were likely to occur for the period of 2070 to 2100 in response to just climate change—i.e. no additional effects of other anthropogenic activities. The future forecasting shows approximately 10% and 15% increases in mean EC for representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5 (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios, respectively. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects’.

2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Zita Tabosa Pinheiro de Queiroz Lima Lucio ◽  
Simone Setúbal dos Santos ◽  
Daniela Mariano Lopes da Silva

AIM: The aim of this study is to evaluate the spatial-temporal changes of chemical elements in the surface waters of the Cachoeira River in order to evaluate the impacts of anthropogenic activities in water quality; METHODS: Samples were collected monthly between August 2008 and August 2009 at six collection points along the river. The abiotic parameters dissolved oxygen, pH, electrical conductivity and temperature were performed in the field using portable digital meters; concentration of ions nitrite (NO2-), nitrate (NO3-), ammonia (NH4+), phosphate (PO4-), sodium (Na+), calcium (Ca+2), potassium (K+), chloride (Cl-), magnesium (Mg+2), sulfate (SO4-2) were determined by ion chromatography and bicarbonate (HCO3-) was calculated by a model of ionic associations originated from alkalinity values; RESULTS: The spatial variations showed that anthropogenic activities and land use changes (cocoa crops and pasture) appear to be the major factors influencing the distribution of nutrients in the Cachoeira River; however, lithology seems to be the factor influencing the major ions; CONCLUSIONS: Variations in ion concentrations were directly related to drought and rainy periods, the geological formation, and the various land uses. The lack of treatment of domestic wastes and their incorrect disposal in water bodies has significantly contributed to the aggravation of environmental problems and consequently the health of the population.


2020 ◽  
pp. 096366252097601
Author(s):  
Nicole Kay ◽  
Sandrine Gaymard

Climate change is a global environmental issue and its outcome will affect societies around the world. In recent years, we have seen a growing literature on media coverage of climate change, but, to date, no study has assessed the situation in Cameroon, although it is considered to be one of the world’s most affected and vulnerable regions. This study attempted to address this deficit by analysing how climate change is represented in the Cameroonian media. A similarity analysis was performed on three newspapers published in 2013–2016. Results showed that climate coverage focused on politics and international involvement. It seems disconnected from local realities, potentially opening up a spatial and social psychological distance. The relationship between the representation of climate change and that of poverty is an area for further exploration.


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (Special issue 1) ◽  
pp. 11-21
Author(s):  
KALYANI SUPRIYA ◽  
R K AGGARWAL ◽  
S K BHARDWAJ

Landuse alteration is one of the primary causes of global environmental change. Changes in the landuse usually occurred regionally and globally over last few decades and will carry on in the future as well. These activities are highly influenced by anthropogenic activities and have more serious consequences on the quality of water and air. In the present study relationship between land use impact on water and air quality have been reviewed.


Author(s):  
Catherine Machalaba ◽  
Cristina Romanelli ◽  
Peter Stoett

The prediction of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) and the avoidance of their tremendous social and economic costs is contingent on the identification of their most likely drivers. It is argued that the drivers of global environmental change (and climate change as both a driver and an impact) are often the drivers of EIDs; and that the two overlap to such a strong degree that targeting these drivers is sound epidemiological policy. Several drivers overlap with the leading causes of biodiversity loss, providing opportunities for health and biodiversity sectors to generate synergies at local and global levels. This chapter provides a primer on EID ecology, reviews underlying drivers and mechanisms that facilitate pathogen spillover and spread, provides suggested policy and practice-based actions toward the prevention of EIDs in the context of environmental change, and identifies knowledge gaps for the purpose of further research.


Author(s):  
Catherine Machalaba ◽  
Cristina Romanelli ◽  
Peter Stoett

The prediction of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) and the avoidance of their tremendous social and economic costs is contingent on the identification of their most likely drivers. It is argued that the drivers of global environmental change (and climate change as both a driver and an impact) are often the drivers of EIDs; and that the two overlap to such a strong degree that targeting these drivers is sound epidemiological policy. Several drivers overlap with the leading causes of biodiversity loss, providing opportunities for health and biodiversity sectors to generate synergies at local and global levels. This chapter provides a primer on EID ecology, reviews underlying drivers and mechanisms that facilitate pathogen spillover and spread, provides suggested policy and practice-based actions toward the prevention of EIDs in the context of environmental change, and identifies knowledge gaps for the purpose of further research.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 261-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard Frumkin ◽  
Andy Haines

Multiple global environmental changes (GECs) now under way, including climate change, biodiversity loss, freshwater depletion, tropical deforestation, overexploitation of fisheries, ocean acidification, and soil degradation, have substantial, but still imperfectly understood, implications for human health. Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) make a major contribution to the global burden of disease. Many of the driving forces responsible for GEC also influence NCD risk through a range of mechanisms. This article provides an overview of pathways linking GEC and NCDs, focusing on five pathways: ( a) energy, air pollution, and climate change; ( b) urbanization; ( c) food, nutrition, and agriculture; ( d) the deposition of persistent chemicals in the environment; and ( e) biodiversity loss.


2005 ◽  
Vol 360 (1454) ◽  
pp. 471-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert T Watson

This paper discusses key issues in the science–policy interface. It stresses the importance of linking the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity to the Millennium Development Goals and to issues of immediate concern to policy-makers such as the economy, security and human health. It briefly discusses the process of decision-making and how the scientific and policy communities have successfully worked together on global environmental issues such as stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, and the critical role of international assessments in providing the scientific basis for informed policy at the national and international level. The paper also discusses the drivers of global environmental change, the importance of constructing plausible futures, indicators of change, the biodiversity 2010 target and how environmental issues such as loss of biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion, land degradation, water pollution and climate change cannot be addressed in isolation because they are strongly interconnected and there are synergies and trade-offs among the policies, practices and technologies that are used to address these issues individually.


2016 ◽  
Vol 03 (02) ◽  
pp. 1671006
Author(s):  
Juha I. Uitto

This paper argues how Mitchell’s work on complex disasters and environmental hazards is highly relevant to the global Sustainable Development Agenda and the international organizations involved in its implementation. The paper takes as its starting point two United Nations University projects led by Mitchell in the 1990s and reviews their prescience in terms of current developments in the context of urbanizations, economic development, population growth, and global environmental change. The issue of adaptation to climate change is highlighted as exemplifying the importance of integrated approaches encompassing human and natural systems, as advocated by Mitchell. Challenges to program and policy evaluation are then discussed with regard to adaptation, adopting Mitchell’s approach of understanding local situations while anchoring evaluation in scientific knowledge.


1994 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 361-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Purvis

In this paper British politicians' understanding of, and attitudes towards, an important element of global environmental change are analysed through study of the parliamentary record Hansard, especially questions to ministers. In particular, attention is given to the evolution of debates concerning stratospheric ozone depletion during the period 1970–92, This focus reflects the importance of ozone depiction as an issue per se, but is also consistent with the wider argument that we need to study the development of specific environmental issues if we are to develop a more sophisticated understanding of the greening of politics; a process hitherto frequently considered as a somewhat incoherent whole, The aim is to trace the chronology of concern about stratospheric ozone, to identify the stimuli to interest in the issue, and to analyse the content and limitations of discussion. This last involves examination of interaction between a global environmental issue and the ideologies of the British national party-political system. The value of consideration of national debate about global issues is thus asserted, National and international debate and diplomacy form interacting elements of a ‘two-level game’ through which politics and environmental concerns become engaged. Previous studies which were focused chiefly on the evolution of a new environmental diplomacy at the international level thus tell only part of the story.


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