scholarly journals Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave

2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1829) ◽  
pp. 20200279
Author(s):  
Paul Birrell ◽  
Joshua Blake ◽  
Edwin van Leeuwen ◽  
Nick Gent ◽  
Daniela De Angelis
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
Ongoing Work ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave

England has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe ‘lockdown’ mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic management throughout the first wave. Estimates on the 10 May showed lockdown had reduced transmission by 75%, the reproduction number falling from 2.6 to 0.61. This regionally varying impact was largest in London with a reduction of 81% (95% credible interval: 77–84%). Reproduction numbers have since then slowly increased, and on 19 June the probability of the epidemic growing was greater than 5% in two regions, South West and London. By this date, an estimated 8% of the population had been infected, with a higher proportion in London (17%). The infection-to-fatality ratio is 1.1% (0.9–1.4%) overall but 17% (14–22%) among the over-75s. This ongoing work continues to be key to quantifying any widespread resurgence, should accrued immunity and effective contact tracing be insufficient to preclude a second wave. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

scholarly journals Real-time Nowcasting and Forecasting of COVID-19 Dynamics in England: the first wave?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J Birrell ◽  
Joshua Blake ◽  
Edwin van Leeuwen ◽  
Nick Gent ◽  
Daniela De Angelis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Real ◽  
South West ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
Ongoing Work ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Second Wave

England has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe 'lock-down' mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic management. Estimates on the 10th May showed lock-down had reduced transmission by 75%, the reproduction number falling from 2.6 to 0.61. This regionally-varying impact was largest in London of 81% (95% CrI: 77%-84%). Reproduction numbers have since slowly increased, and on 19th June the probability that the epidemic is growing was greater than 50% in two regions, South West and London. An estimated 8% of the population had been infected, with a higher proportion in London (17%). The infection-to-fatality ratio is 1.1% (0.9%-1.4%) overall but 17% (14%-22%) among the over-75s. This ongoing work will be key to quantifying any widespread resurgence should accrued immunity and effective contact tracing be insufficient to preclude a second wave.

scholarly journals Epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Nepal and the importance of social distancing to contain the virus

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-25
Author(s):  
Amod K. Pokhrel ◽  
Yadav P. Joshi ◽  
Sopnil Bhattarai
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
The Government ◽  
Testing Case ◽  
The Impact

There is limited information on the epidemiology and the effects of mitigation measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Nepal. Using publicly available databases, we analyzed the epidemiological trend, the people's movement trends at different intervals across different categories of places and evaluated implications of social mobility on COVID-19. We also estimated the epidemic peak. As of June 9, 2020, Provinces 2 and 5 have most of the cases. People between 15 and 54 years are vulnerable to becoming infected, and more males than females are affected. The cases are growing exponentially. The growth rate of 0.13 and >1 reproduction numbers (R0) over time (median: 1.48; minimum: 0.58, and maximum: 3.71) confirms this trend. The case doubling time is five days. Google's community mobility data suggest that people strictly followed social distancing measures for one month after the lockdown. By around the 4th week of April, the individual's movement started rising, and social contacts increased. The number of cases peaked on May 12, with 83 confirmed cases in one day. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model suggests that the epidemic will peak approximately on day 41 (July 21, 2020), and start to plateau after day 80. To contain the spread of the virus, people should maintain social distancing. The Government needs to continue active surveillance, more PCR-based testing, case detection, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine. The Government should also provide financial support and safety-nets to the citizen to limit the impact of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Segmentation and shielding of the most vulnerable members of the population as elements of an exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown

2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1829) ◽  
pp. 20200275
Author(s):  
Bram A. D. van Bunnik ◽  
Alex L. K. Morgan ◽  
Paul R. Bessell ◽  
Giles Calder-Gerver ◽  
Feifei Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Contact Matrix ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
Future Policy ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave

This study demonstrates that an adoption of a segmenting and shielding strategy could increase the scope to partially exit COVID-19 lockdown while limiting the risk of an overwhelming second wave of infection. We illustrate this using a mathematical model that segments the vulnerable population and their closest contacts, the ‘shielders’. Effects of extending the duration of lockdown and faster or slower transition to post-lockdown conditions and, most importantly, the trade-off between increased protection of the vulnerable segment and fewer restrictions on the general population are explored. Our study shows that the most important determinants of outcome are: (i) post-lockdown transmission rates within the general and between the general and vulnerable segments; (ii) fractions of the population in the vulnerable and shielder segments; (iii) adherence to protective measures; and (iv) build-up of population immunity. Additionally, we found that effective measures in the shielder segment, e.g. intensive routine screening, allow further relaxations in the general population. We find that the outcome of any future policy is strongly influenced by the contact matrix between segments and the relationships between physical distancing measures and transmission rates. This strategy has potential applications for any infectious disease for which there are defined proportions of the population who cannot be treated or who are at risk of severe outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

scholarly journals FoodSensitive Study: Wave One Survey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Knibb ◽  
Lily Hawkins ◽  
Dan Rigby
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Food Hypersensitivity ◽  
Food Allergies ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Life Data ◽  
Ongoing Work ◽  
Eating Out ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave

We commissioned this survey to better understand how food allergies, intolerances and coeliac disease affect people across the UK, and the factors associated with higher or lower quality of life. It will also inform our ongoing work to monitor and evaluate the success of the FSA’s food hypersensitivity programme. The FSA will be running a second wave of the survey in autumn this year, and we will use this to observe any differences in the eating out and quality of life data collected across the two timepoints.

scholarly journals The COVID States Project #33: Update on COVID-19 test turnaround times across the country

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanyu Chwe ◽  
Alexi Quintana ◽  
David Lazer ◽  
Matthew Baum ◽  
Katherine Ognyanova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Wait Time ◽  
Turnaround Time ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Average Wait Time ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
To Receive

Rapid delivery of COVID-19 test results are essential for the nation’s pandemic response. Our 50-state survey results reveal that testing times are decreasing, albeit slowly (see Figure 1).1 For respondents whose last nasal swab COVID-19 test was in March, the average result turnaround time was 3.9 days (with a median of 3.0 days); in December, the average time was 2.2 days (median of 2.0 days).2 Unfortunately, racial disparities still exist in testing times; in December, Hispanic and Black respondents waited 0.7 and 0.4 days longer than white respondents, respectively.We also measure respondents’ access to COVID-19 testing by asking, “How many days did you have to wait between the time you decided on a test and the day you were tested?” (Figures 2 and 3). Responses indicate that difficulty in obtaining COVID-19 tests has decreased somewhat, although race and ethnicity matter again: in December, Asian, Hispanic, and Black respondents had to wait 1.5, 1.4, and 0.9 days longer than white respondents (average wait time of 2.0 days) to receive a test.Despite an overall trend of increased access and reduced result times, as of December, the average time between the decision to get tested and the actual test (2.4 days) plus the average time to receive test results after getting tested (2.2 days) remains too long to support effective contact tracing.

scholarly journals Estimating the generation interval for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on symptom onset data, March 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tapiwa Ganyani ◽  
Cécile Kremer ◽  
Dongxuan Chen ◽  
Andrea Torneri ◽  
Christel Faes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Generation Interval ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Distribution Sensitivity ◽  
Interval Distribution

Background Estimating key infectious disease parameters from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak is essential for modelling studies and guiding intervention strategies. Aim We estimate the generation interval, serial interval, proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission and effective reproduction number of COVID-19. We illustrate that reproduction numbers calculated based on serial interval estimates can be biased. Methods We used outbreak data from clusters in Singapore and Tianjin, China to estimate the generation interval from symptom onset data while acknowledging uncertainty about the incubation period distribution and the underlying transmission network. From those estimates, we obtained the serial interval, proportions of pre-symptomatic transmission and reproduction numbers. Results The mean generation interval was 5.20 days (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.78–6.78) for Singapore and 3.95 days (95% CrI: 3.01–4.91) for Tianjin. The proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 48% (95% CrI: 32–67) for Singapore and 62% (95% CrI: 50–76) for Tianjin. Reproduction number estimates based on the generation interval distribution were slightly higher than those based on the serial interval distribution. Sensitivity analyses showed that estimating these quantities from outbreak data requires detailed contact tracing information. Conclusion High estimates of the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission imply that case finding and contact tracing need to be supplemented by physical distancing measures in order to control the COVID-19 outbreak. Notably, quarantine and other containment measures were already in place at the time of data collection, which may inflate the proportion of infections from pre-symptomatic individuals.

scholarly journals Development of the COVID-19 Real-Time Information System for Preparedness and Epidemic Response (CRISPER), Australia

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Field ◽  
Amalie Dyda ◽  
Michael Hewett ◽  
Haotian Weng ◽  
Jingjing Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Information System ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Current Information ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
Epidemic Response ◽  
Real Time Information ◽  
Time Information

Accurate and current information has been highlighted across the globe as a critical requirement for the COVID-19 pandemic response. To address this need, many interactive dashboards providing a range of different information about COVID-19 have been developed. A similar tool in Australia containing current information about COVID-19 could assist general practitioners and public health responders in their pandemic response efforts. The COVID-19 Real-time Information System for Preparedness and Epidemic Response (CRISPER) has been developed to provide accurate and spatially explicit real-time information for COVID-19 cases, deaths, testing and contact tracing locations in Australia. Developed based on feedback from key users and stakeholders, the system comprises three main components: (1) a data engine; (2) data visualization and interactive mapping tools; and (3) an automated alert system. This system provides integrated data from multiple sources in one platform which optimizes information sharing with public health responders, primary health care practitioners and the general public.

scholarly journals COVID-19 War: United Kingdom’s Strategy During the First Wave

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 355-358
Author(s):  
Mrigesh Bhatia ◽  
Charusheela Bhatia ◽  
Vilomi Bhatia
Keyword(s):  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Equipment Availability ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave

This opinion piece is a reflection on the UK government’s policy response to the war against the COVID-19 pandemic. In the initial stages, concerns were raised with respect to a lack of effective personal protective equipment, availability of ventilators and diagnostic tests. The early defective strategy based on the flawed assumption of building herd immunity in the population was quickly replaced with isolation and social distancing. Subsequently, testing and contact tracing were adopted which too has been criticised for being ‘too little, too late’. With the possibility of the second wave, the concern is the extent to which the United Kingdom has learnt lessons from the first wave and is in a position to effectively respond to the second wave of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Predicting undetected infections during the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak

2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (41) ◽  
pp. 1145-1151 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. P. Jewell ◽  
M. J. Keeling ◽  
G. O. Roberts
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Random Strategy ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Uk

Active disease surveillance during epidemics is of utmost importance in detecting and eliminating new cases quickly, and targeting such surveillance to high-risk individuals is considered more efficient than applying a random strategy. Contact tracing has been used as a form of at-risk targeting, and a variety of mathematical models have indicated that it is likely to be highly efficient. However, for fast-moving epidemics, resource constraints limit the ability of the authorities to perform, and follow up, contact tracing effectively. As an alternative, we present a novel real-time Bayesian statistical methodology to determine currently undetected (occult) infections. For the UK foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic of 2007, we use real-time epidemic data synthesized with previous knowledge of FMD outbreaks in the UK to predict which premises might have been infected, but remained undetected, at any point during the outbreak. This provides both a framework for targeting surveillance in the face of limited resources and an indicator of the current severity and spatial extent of the epidemic. We anticipate that this methodology will be of substantial benefit in future outbreaks, providing a compromise between targeted manual surveillance and random or spatially targeted strategies.

scholarly journals Projecting a second wave of COVID-19 in Japan with variable interventions in high-risk settings

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sung-mok Jung ◽  
Akira Endo ◽  
Ryo Kinoshita ◽  
Hiroshi Nishiura
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
The State ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
Emergency Scenarios ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Different Levels

An initial set of interventions, including the closure of host and hostess clubs and voluntary limitation of non-household contact, probably greatly contributed to reducing the disease incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, but this approach must eventually be replaced by a more sustainable strategy. To characterize such a possible exit strategy from the restrictive guidelines, we quantified the next-generation matrix, accounting for high- and low-risk transmission settings. This matrix was used to project the future incidence in Tokyo and Osaka after the state of emergency is lifted, presenting multiple ‘post-emergency’ scenarios with different levels of restriction. The effective reproduction numbers ( R ) for the increasing phase, the transition phase and the state-of-emergency phase in the first wave of the disease were estimated as 1.78 (95% credible interval (CrI): 1.73–1.82), 0.74 (95% CrI: 0.71–0.78) and 0.63 (95% CrI: 0.61–0.65), respectively, in Tokyo and as 1.58 (95% CrI: 1.51–1.64), 1.20 (95% CrI: 1.15–1.25) and 0.48 (95% CrI: 0.44–0.51), respectively, in Osaka. Projections showed that a 50% decrease in the high-risk transmission is required to keep R less than 1 in both locations—a level necessary to maintain control of the epidemic and minimize the risk of resurgence.

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