scholarly journals Estimation of incubation period distribution of COVID-19 using disease onset forward time: a novel cross-sectional and forward follow-up study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Qin ◽  
Chong You ◽  
Qiushi Lin ◽  
Taojun Hu ◽  
Shicheng Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Incubation Period ◽  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Recall Bias ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Follow Up Study ◽  
Incubation Periods ◽  
Current Outbreak ◽  
And Control

SummaryBackgroundThe current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has quickly spread across countries and become a global crisis. However, one of the most important clinical characteristics in epidemiology, the distribution of the incubation period, remains unclear. Different estimates of the incubation period of COVID-19 were reported in recent published studies, but all have their own limitations. In this study, we propose a novel low-cost and accurate method to estimate the incubation distribution.MethodsWe have conducted a cross-sectional and forward follow-up study by identifying those asymptomatic individuals at their time of departure from Wuhan and then following them until their symptoms developed. The renewal process is hence adopted by considering the incubation period as a renewal and the duration between departure and symptom onset as a forward recurrence time. Under mild assumptions, the observations of selected forward times can be used to consistently estimate the parameters in the distribution of the incubation period. Such a method enhances the accuracy of estimation by reducing recall bias and utilizing the abundant and readily available forward time data.FindingsThe estimated distribution of forward time fits the observations in the collected data well. The estimated median of incubation period is 8·13 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7·37-8·91), the mean is 8·62 days (95% CI: 8·02-9·28), the 90th percentile is 14·65 days (95% CI: 14·00-15·26), and the 99th percentile is 20·59 days (95% CI: 19·47, 21·62). Compared with results in other studies, the incubation period estimated in this study is longer.InterpretationBased on the estimated incubation distribution in this study, about 10% of patients with COVID-19 would not develop symptoms until 14 days after infection. Further study of the incubation distribution is warranted to directly estimate the proportion with long incubation periods.FundingThis research is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China grant 8204100362 and Zhejiang University special scientific research fund for COVID-19 prevention and control.Research in contextEvidence before this studyBefore the current outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China, there were two other coronaviruses that have caused major global epidemics over the last two decades. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread to 37 countries and caused 8424 cases and 919 deaths in 2002-03, while Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) spread to 27 countries, causing 2494 cases and 858 deaths worldwide to date. Precise knowledge of the incubation period is crucial for the prevention and control of these diseases. We have searched PubMed and preprint archives for articles published as of February 22, 2020, which contain information about these diseases by using the key words of “COVID-19”, “SARS”, “MERS”, “2019-nCoV”, “coronavirus”, and “incubation”. We have found 15 studies that estimated the distribution of the incubation period. There are four articles focused on COVID-19, five on MERS, and six on SARS. Most of these studies had limited sample sizes and were potentially influenced by recall bias. The estimates for mean, median, and percentiles of the incubation period from these articles are summarized in Table 1.Added value of this studyIn the absence of complete and robust contact-tracing data, we have inferred the distribution of the incubation period of COVID-19 from the durations between departure from Wuhan and symptom onset for the confirmed cases. More than 1000 cases were collected from publicly available data. The proposed approach has a solid theoretical foundation and enhances the accuracy of estimation by reducing recall bias and utilizing a large pool of samples.Implications of all the available evidenceBased on our model, about 10% of patients with COVID-19 do not develop symptoms until 14 days after infection. Further study of individuals with long incubation periods is warranted.

scholarly journals Estimation of incubation period distribution of COVID-19 using disease onset forward time: A novel cross-sectional and forward follow-up study

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (33) ◽  
pp. eabc1202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Qin ◽  
Chong You ◽  
Qiushi Lin ◽  
Taojun Hu ◽  
Shicheng Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Renewal Process ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Recall Bias ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Follow Up Study ◽  
Period Distribution

We have proposed a novel, accurate low-cost method to estimate the incubation-period distribution of COVID-19 by conducting a cross-sectional and forward follow-up study. We identified those presymptomatic individuals at their time of departure from Wuhan and followed them until the development of symptoms. The renewal process was adopted by considering the incubation period as a renewal and the duration between departure and symptoms onset as a forward time. Such a method enhances the accuracy of estimation by reducing recall bias and using the readily available data. The estimated median incubation period was 7.76 days [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.02 to 8.53], and the 90th percentile was 14.28 days (95% CI: 13.64 to 14.90). By including the possibility that a small portion of patients may contract the disease on their way out of Wuhan, the estimated probability that the incubation period is longer than 14 days was between 5 and 10%.

scholarly journals A study on implementation of national programme for prevention and control of cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and stroke in Udupi district, Karnataka

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 2384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kantinath Ainapure ◽  
Kumar Sumit ◽  
Sanjay M. Pattanshetty
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Health Staff ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
National Programme ◽  
And Control

Background: In India National programme for prevention and control of Cancer, Diabetes, Cardiovascular Diseases and Stroke (NPCDCS) programme was launched in 2011 to reduce the burden of Non-Communicable diseases (NCDs). Udupi district was one of the first few districts of Karnataka where NPCDCS programme was started in the year 2010.Methods: A qualitative cross-sectional study was conducted among the stakeholders involved in the NPCDCS programme of Udupi District, Karnataka from January 2017- June 2017. Purposive sampling method was used for the sample selection. A total of 36 in-depth interviews were carried out among the stakeholders of NPCDCS programme.Results: The programme has achieved initial success and its successful implementation has to be observed in the coming years. Health staff posts which are critical in implementation of NPCDCS are vacant in many of the healthcare centres. Awareness about this programme was relatively low in the community.Conclusions: It is necessary to conduct regular awareness and screening campaigns with proper follow-up services to make the community sensitized about the programme. Regular supply of medicines should be ensured for the effective implementation of the programme in the future so that it can achieve its goal in reducing the burden NCDs.

Investigation on emotion and behavior of children aged 1-11 during the pandemic of COVID-19: A Cross-sectional study in Guizhou, China (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yushi Mo ◽  
Yan Luo ◽  
Hong Li ◽  
Dewei Xiao ◽  
Shuqing Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Problems ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Sleep Problems ◽  
Emotional Problems ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Emotional And Behavioral Problems ◽  
Guizhou Province ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
And Control

BACKGROUND In face of the sudden epidemic of COVID-19, strict prevention and control measures had been urgently carried out all over China. Because of the long-term home quarantine, all kinds of people were affected by it. OBJECTIVE In order to understand the mental health of children during the pandemic of COVID-19, this study investigated the prevalence and characteristics of emotional and behavioral problems of children aged 1-11 in Guizhou. METHODS Based on the online survey platform, the survey link was pushed through Wechat in April 2020. Electronic questionnaires were used to investigate children's demographic characteristics, emotional or behavioral problems. RESULTS A total of 3505 valid questionnaires were received from 9 prefectures and cities in Guizhou Province. 39.67% of the children in the 1-2-year-old group had emotional problems. 17.63% of the children agd 3-5 years had behavioral or emotional problems. And 23.57% of the children agd 6-11 years havd behavioral problems. CONCLUSIONS During the home quarantine period of prevention and control of COVID-19, even young children were adversely affected. The prevalence of emotional and behavioral problems in children was high, which was mainly manifested as anxiety, difficulty in concentration and sleep problems.

scholarly journals Infection control practices and challenges in Pakistan during the COVID-19 pandemic: a multicentre cross-sectional study

2021 ◽  
pp. 175717742110127
Author(s):  
Salma Abbas ◽  
Faisal Sultan
Keyword(s):  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Infection Prevention ◽  
Hospital Staff ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
And Control

Background: Patient and staff safety at healthcare facilities during outbreaks hinges on a prompt infection prevention and control response. Physicians leading these programmes have encountered numerous obstacles during the pandemic. Aim/objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate infection prevention and control practices and explore the challenges in Pakistan during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study and administered a survey to physicians leading infection prevention and control programmes at 18 hospitals in Pakistan. Results: All participants implemented universal masking, limited the intake of patients and designated separate triage areas, wards and intensive care units for coronavirus disease 2019 patients at their hospitals. Eleven (61%) physicians reported personal protective equipment shortages. Staff at three (17%) hospitals worked without the appropriate personal protective equipment due to limited supplies. All participants felt overworked and 17 (94%) reported stress. Physicians identified the lack of negative pressure rooms, fear and anxiety among hospital staff, rapidly evolving guidelines, personal protective equipment shortages and opposition from hospital staff regarding the choice of recommended personal protective equipment as major challenges during the pandemic. Discussion: The results of this study highlight the challenges faced by physicians leading infection prevention and control programmes in Pakistan. It is essential to support infection prevention and control personnel and bridge the identified gaps to ensure patient and staff safety at healthcare facilities.

scholarly journals THU0254 Risk factors for back pain in a cross sectional and in a one-year follow up study in nurses

2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Brzosko ◽  
I Fiedorowicz-Fabrycy ◽  
J Fliciñski ◽  
H Przepiera-Bêdzak ◽  
K Prajs
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Back Pain ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Follow Up Study ◽  
One Year

scholarly journals Prevalence and Contributing Factors Associated With Postoperative Pain in Pediatric Patients: A Cross-Sectional Follow-up Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 100159
Author(s):  
Zemenay Ayinie Mekonnen ◽  
Debas Yaregal Melesse ◽  
Habitamu Getinet Kassahun ◽  
Tesera Dereje Flatie ◽  
Misganaw Mengie Workie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Postoperative Pain ◽  
Pediatric Patients ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Follow Up Study

scholarly journals Gender differences and determinants of prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension among adults in China and Sweden

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ailiana Santosa ◽  
Yue Zhang ◽  
Lars Weinehall ◽  
Genming Zhao ◽  
Na Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gender Differences ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Intervention Program ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Chinese Men ◽  
Obesity And Diabetes ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Failure to promote early detection and better management of hypertension will contribute to the increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases. This study aims to assess the gender differences in the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension, together with its associated factors, in China and Sweden. Methods We used data from two cross-sectional studies: the Västerbotten Intervention Program in northern Sweden (n = 25,511) and the Shanghai survey in eastern China (n = 25,356). We employed multivariable logistic regression to examine the socio-demographics, lifestyle behaviours, and biological factors associated with the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension. Results Men had a higher prevalence of hypertension (43% in Sweden, 39% in China) than their female counterparts (29 and 36%, respectively). In Sweden, men were less aware of, less treated for, and had less control over their hypertension than women. Chinese men were more aware of, had similar levels of treatment for, and had less control over their hypertension compared to women. Awareness and control of hypertension was lower in China compared to Sweden. Only 33 and 38% of hypertensive Chinese men and women who were treated reached the treatment goals, compared with a respective 48 and 59% in Sweden. Old age, impaired glucose tolerance or diabetes, a family history of hypertension or cardiovascular diseases, low physical activity and overweight or obesity were found to increase the odds of hypertension and its diagnosis. Conclusions This study shows the age and gender differences in the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension among adults in China and Sweden. Multisectoral intervention should be developed to address the increasing burden of sedentary lifestyle, overweight and obesity and diabetes, all of which are linked to the prevention and control of hypertension. Development and implementation of the gender- and context-specific intervention for the prevention and control of hypertension facilitates understanding with regard to the implementation barriers and facilitators.

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