scholarly journals The importance of species interactions in spatially explicit eco-evolutionary community dynamics under climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Åkesson ◽  
Alva Curtsdotter ◽  
Anna Eklöf ◽  
Bo Ebenman ◽  
Jon Norberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Community Dynamics ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEco-evolutionary dynamics are essential in shaping the biological response of communities to ongoing climate change. Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary framework which integrates evolution, dispersal, and species interactions within and between trophic levels. This allows us to analyze how these processes interact to shape species- and community-level dynamics under climate change. Additionally, we incorporate the heretofore unexplored feature that species interactions themselves might change due to increasing temperatures and affect the impact of climate change on ecological communities. The new modeling framework captures previously reported ecological responses to climate change, and also reveals two new key results. First, interactions between trophic levels as well as temperature-dependent competition within a trophic level mitigate the negative impact of climate change on global biodiversity, emphasizing the importance of understanding biotic interactions in shaping climate change impact. Second, using a trait-based perspective, we found a strong negative relationship between the within-community variation in preferred temperatures and the capacity to respond to climate change. Communities resulting from different ecological interaction structures form distinct clusters along this relationship, but varying species’ abilities to disperse and adapt to new temperatures leave it unaffected.

scholarly journals The importance of species interactions in eco-evolutionary community dynamics under climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Åkesson ◽  
Alva Curtsdotter ◽  
Anna Eklöf ◽  
Bo Ebenman ◽  
Jon Norberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Community Dynamics ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEco-evolutionary dynamics are essential in shaping the biological response of communities to ongoing climate change. Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary framework which features more detailed species interactions, integrating evolution and dispersal. We include species interactions within and between trophic levels, and additionally, we incorporate the feature that species’ interspecific competition might change due to increasing temperatures and affect the impact of climate change on ecological communities. Our modeling framework captures previously reported ecological responses to climate change, and also reveals two key results. First, interactions between trophic levels as well as temperature-dependent competition within a trophic level mitigate the negative impact of climate change on biodiversity, emphasizing the importance of understanding biotic interactions in shaping climate change impact. Second, our trait-based perspective reveals a strong positive relationship between the within-community variation in preferred temperatures and the capacity to respond to climate change. Temperature-dependent competition consistently results both in higher trait variation and more responsive communities to altered climatic conditions. Our study demonstrates the importance of species interactions in an eco-evolutionary setting, further expanding our knowledge of the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes.

scholarly journals A modeling framework to assess the impact of climate change on a river runoff

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leszek Kuchar ◽  
Wiwiana Szalińska ◽  
Sławomir Iwański ◽  
Leszek Jelonek
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF SEASONALITY ON TOURIST’S ARRIVAL IN BANGLADESH BY USING SANCOVA MODEL

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 1118-1124
Author(s):  
Sayed Mohibul HOSSEN ◽  
◽  
Mohd Tahir ISMAIL ◽  
Mosab I. TABASH ◽  
Suhaib ANAGREH ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Ancova Model ◽  
Minimum Variation ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we aim to highlight the impact of climate change as well as seasonality on tourist’s arrival in Bangladesh. The SANCOVA modeling framework modified by the ANCOVA model is used to examine the impact of climate change on tourists’ arrivals. The results show seasonality has a 91% effect on tourist’s arrival in Bangladesh. The maximum and minimum variation of climatic variables on tourists’ arrival in Bangladesh is rainfall and humidity, respectively. The winter and summer seasons have similar and more impact on tourist’s arrival in Bangladesh. Our findings indicate that the tourism industry of Bangladesh is more vulnerable to seasonal variation than the overall economy. The present study has significant implications for both policymakers and tourisms destination alike to plan for tourism in Bangladesh.

A coupled surface–subsurface modeling framework to assess the impact of climate change on freshwater wetlands

2015 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 211-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
X Yu ◽  
G Bhatt ◽  
CJ Duffy ◽  
DH Wardrop ◽  
RG Najjar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Wetlands ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Subsurface Modeling

Differentiating in the Community

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark A. McPeek
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Intraguild Predation ◽  
General Model ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Ecological Differentiation ◽  
Neutral Species ◽  
Biological Communities ◽  
Coexisting Species

This chapter explores the evolutionary dynamics that arise when different types of species mix together in a community either by invasion or by perturbation, as well as community mixing caused by climate change. In particular, it considers the features that promote or retard ecological differentiation of species. The chapter first describes a general model of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in a community before discussing adaptive differentiation at multiple trophic levels. It then examines differentiation of species with identical underlying parameters vs. different underlying parameters, along with intraguild predation and how ecological opportunity evolves within biological communities. It also investigates when neutral species will initially differentiate from one another to convert them into a set of coexisting species, and when differentiated species will initially converge to become ecologically more similar. The chapter shows that, when differentiation occurs, the type of traits underlying species interactions determine the ecological structure of the resulting community.

scholarly journals Robustness of geography as an instrument to assess impact of climate change on agriculture

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 654-669 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Iftikhar Ul Husnain ◽  
Arjunan Subramanian ◽  
Azad Haider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Value Addition ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The empirical literature on climate change and agriculture does not adequately address the issue of potential endogeneity between climatic variables and agriculture, which makes their estimates unreliable. This paper aims to investigate the relationships between climate change and agriculture and test the potential reverse causality and endogeneity of climatic variables to agriculture. Design/methodology/approach This study introduces a geographical instrument, longitude and latitude, for temperature to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture by estimating regression using IV-two-stage least squares method over annual panel data for 60 countries for the period of 1999-2011. The identification and F-statistic tests are used to choose and exclude the instrument. The inclusion of some control variables is supposed to reduce the omitted variable bias. Findings The study finds a negative relationship between temperature and agriculture. Surprisingly, the magnitude of the coefficient on temperature is mild, at least 20 per cent, as compared to previous studies, which may be because of the use of the instrumental variable (IV), which is also supported by an alternative robust measure when estimated across different regions. Practical implications The study provides strong implications for policymakers to confront climate change, which is an impending danger to agriculture. In designing effective policies and strategies, policymakers should focus not only on crop production but also on other agricultural activities such as livestock production and fisheries, in addition to national and international socio-economic and geopolitical dynamics. Originality/value This paper contributes to the growing literature in at least four aspects. First, empirical settings introduce an innovative geographical instrument, Second, it includes a wider set of control variables in the analysis. Third, it extends previous studies by involving agriculture value addition. Finally, the effects of temperature and precipitation on a single aggregate measure, agriculture value addition, are separately investigated.

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.

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