scholarly journals The Covid-19 infection in Italy: a statistical study of an abnormally severe disease

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe De Natale ◽  
Valerio Ricciardi ◽  
Gabriele De Luca ◽  
Dario De Natale ◽  
Giovanni Di Meglio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Study ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
The Real ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
The People ◽  
Analyse Data

AbstractWe statistically investigate the Coronavirus Disease 19 (hereinafter Covid-19) epidemics, which is particularly invasive in Italy. We show that the high apparent mortality (or Case Fatality Ratio, CFR) observed in Italy, as compared with other countries, is likely biased by a strong underestimation of infected cases. To give a more realistic estimate of the mortality of Covid-19, we use the most recent estimates of the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) of epidemic, based on the minimum observed CFR, and furthermore analyse data obtained from the ship Diamond Princess, a good representation of a ‘laboratory’ case-study from an isolated system in which all the people have been tested. From such analyses we derive more realistic estimates of the real extension of the infection, as well as more accurate indicators of how fast the infection propagates. We then point out from the various explanations proposed, the dominant factors causing such an abnormal seriousness of the disease in Italy. Finally, we use the deceased data, the only ones estimated to be reliable enough, to predict the total number of infected people and the interval of time when the infection in Italy could stop.

scholarly journals The Covid-19 Infection in Italy: A Statistical Study of an Abnormally Severe Disease

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe De Natale ◽  
Valerio Ricciardi ◽  
Gabriele De Luca ◽  
Dario De Natale ◽  
Giovanni Di Meglio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Study ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
The Real ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
The People ◽  
Analyse Data

We statistically investigate the Coronavirus Disease 19 (hereinafter Covid-19) epidemics, which is particularly invasive in Italy. We show that the high apparent mortality (or Case Fatality Ratio, CFR) observed in Italy, as compared with other countries, is likely biased by a strong underestimation of infected cases. To give a more realistic estimate of the mortality of Covid-19, we use the most recent estimates of the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) of epidemic, based on the minimum observed CFR, and furthermore analyse data obtained from the ship Diamond Princess, a good representation of a ‘laboratory’ case-study from an isolated system in which all the people have been tested. From such analyses we derive more realistic estimates of the real extension of the infection, as well as more accurate indicators of how fast the infection propagates. We then point out from the various explanations proposed, the dominant factors causing such an abnormal seriousness of the disease in Italy. Finally, we use the deceased data, the only ones estimated to be reliable enough, to predict the total number of infected people and the interval of time when the infection in Italy could stop.

scholarly journals The COVID-19 Infection in Italy: A Statistical Study of an Abnormally Severe Disease

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe De Natale ◽  
Valerio Ricciardi ◽  
Gabriele De Luca ◽  
Dario De Natale ◽  
Giovanni Di Meglio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Study ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Cruise Ship ◽  
The People ◽  
Severity Of The Disease ◽  
Death Count ◽  
Analyze Data

We statistically investigate the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic, which became particularly invasive in Italy in March 2020. We show that the high apparent lethality or case fatality ratio (CFR) observed in Italy, as compared with other countries, is likely biased by a strong underestimation of the number of infection cases. To give a more realistic estimate of the lethality of COVID-19, we use the actual (March 2020) estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) of the pandemic based on the minimum observed CFR and analyze data obtained from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, a good representation of a “laboratory” case-study from an isolated system in which all the people have been tested. From such analyses, we derive more realistic estimates of the real extent of the infection as well as more accurate indicators of how fast the infection propagates. We then isolate the dominant factors causing the abnormal severity of the disease in Italy. Finally, we use the death count—the only data estimated to be reliable enough—to predict the total number of people infected and the interval of time when the infection in Italy could end.

scholarly journals Private piety or collective worship in early Christian martyria: Late antique Naissus case study

Zograf ◽  
2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Olga Spehar
Keyword(s):  
Collective Memory ◽  
Social Role ◽  
Simple Explanation ◽  
Late Antique ◽  
The Real ◽  
Early Christian ◽  
The People ◽  
Historical Role

Explanation of the purpose of early Christian martyria as places of collective memory is a complex of many different circumstances and meanings and must be observed in accordance. First of all, martyria are architectural monuments dedicated to the martyrs, historical evidences of the martyrial death of those who suffered for Christ - this is a simple explanation of their real meaning. Yet, their social role is even more important than their historical role - martyria continuously transferred an idea of Salvation among the people, becoming thus the places of collective memory. But what happen when the martyr?s relics are ?usurped? by one wealthy family? This paper aim to shed some light on what could have been the real purpose of one such example, the martyrium attached to the basilica on the necropolis in Jagodin Mala in Naissus (modern Nis).

Let the People In! Lessons from a Modern Viking Saga

2020 ◽  
pp. 152-179
Author(s):  
Hélène Landemore
Keyword(s):  
Real Life ◽  
The Real ◽  
The People ◽  
Online Comments ◽  
Electoral Democracy ◽  
The Way

This chapter assesses the real-life case study of Iceland to illustrate some of the principles of open democracy. It closely examines the 2010–13 Icelandic constitutional process from which many of the ideas behind this book originally stem. Despite its apparent failure — the constitutional proposal has yet to be turned into law — the Icelandic constitutional process created a precedent for both new ways of writing a constitution and envisioning democracy. The process departed from representative, electoral democracy as we know it in the way it allowed citizens to set the agenda upstream of the process, write the constitutional proposal or at least causally affect it via online comments, and observe most of the steps involved. The chapter also shows that the procedure was not simply inclusive and democratic but also successful in one crucial respect — it produced a good constitutional proposal. This democratically written proposal indeed compares favorably to both the 1944 constitution it was meant to replace and competing proposals written by experts at about the same time.

scholarly journals Retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from deaths (REMEDID) in COVID-19: the Spain case study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David García-García ◽  
María Isabel Vigo ◽  
Eva S. Fonfría ◽  
Zaida Herrador ◽  
Miriam Navarro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
National Government ◽  
Data Accuracy ◽  
Illness Onset ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
Official Data

AbstractThe number of new daily infections is one of the main parameters to understand the dynamics of an epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, such information has been underestimated. Here, we propose a retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from daily deaths, because those are usually more accurately documented. Given the incubation period, the time from illness onset to death, and the case fatality ratio, the date of death can be estimated from the date of infection. We apply this idea conversely to estimate infections from deaths. This methodology is applied to Spain and its 19 administrative regions. Our results showed that probable daily infections during the first wave were between 35 and 42 times more than those officially documented on 14 March, when the national government decreed a national lockdown and 9 times more than those documented by the updated version of the official data. The national lockdown had a strong effect on the growth rate of virus transmission, which began to decrease immediately. Finally, the first inferred infection in Spain is about 43 days before the official data were available during the first wave. The current official data show delays of 15–30 days in the first infection relative to the inferred infections in 63% of the regions. In summary, we propose a methodology that allows reinterpretation of official daily infections, improving data accuracy in infection magnitude and dates because it assimilates valuable information from the National Seroprevalence Studies.

scholarly journals Efforts to Recover State Financial Losses Through Criminal Cases Case Study Against Corruption

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-30
Author(s):  
Fira Saputri Yanuar Andri ◽  
Amarru Muftie Holish ◽  
Aditya Wicaksono
Keyword(s):  
Legal Protection ◽  
The State ◽  
Alternative Solution ◽  
Criminal Cases ◽  
The Real ◽  
Procedural Law ◽  
The People ◽  
Financial Losses

State Assets are objects of the criminal acts of corruption which are certainly very detrimental to the State if viewed from the perspective of the victim . However, the victims of embezzlement of state funds are not only the State but also the people . The real consequence of this action is the reduced wealth of the State which should be used as a collision of assets owned by the State . Efforts to restore state losses based on the existing criminal procedural law procedure seems unable to maximize the return of stolen State assets . Supposedly, the country here holds legal protection because here one of the victims of the stolen state assets is certainly the country itself. As one of the crimes based on counts it seems that there needs to be an alternative solution in returning the lost state assets .

scholarly journals Estimation of real-infection and immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in Indian populations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prajjval Pratap Singh ◽  
Rakesh Tamang ◽  
Manoj Shukla ◽  
Abhishek Pathak ◽  
Anshika Srivastava ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Population ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Urban Region ◽  
Antibody Testing ◽  
The Real ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
The Government ◽  
High Level ◽  
Developed Nations ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractInfection born by Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has swept the world within a time of a few months. It has created a devastating effect on humanity with social and economic depressions. Europe and America were the hardest hit continents. India has also lost several lives, making the country fourth most deadly worldwide. However, the infection and death rate per million and the case fatality ratio in India were substantially lower than many of the developed nations. Several factors have been proposed including the genetics. One of the important facts is that a large chunk of Indian population is asymptomatic to the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Thus, the real infection in India is much higher than the reported number of cases. Therefore, the majority of people are already immune in the country. To understand the dynamics of real infection as well as level of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, we have performed antibody testing (serosurveillance) in the urban region of fourteen Indian districts encompassing six states. In our survey, the seroprevalence frequency varied between 0.01-0.48, suggesting high variability of viral transmission among states. We also found out that the cases reported by the Government were several fold lower than the real infection. This discrepancy is majorly driven by a higher number of asymptomatic cases. Overall, we suggest that with the high level of immunity developed against SARS-CoV-2 in the majority of the districts, it is less likely to have a second wave in India.

Acute mesenteric ischemia with necrosis of entire small intestine

2019 ◽  
Vol 98 (4) ◽  
pp. 174-177
Keyword(s):  
Small Intestine ◽  
Mesenteric Ischemia ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Acute Mesenteric Ischemia ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Entire Small Intestine ◽  
Common Etiology

The case study describes a case of a patient with acute mesenteric ischemia with necrosis of entire small intestine. In following text there is an overview of the incidence of acute mesenteric ischemia, its most common etiology, diagnostic methods and treatment of this severe disease.

PEMBENAHAN TERHADAP LEMBAGA PEMASYARAKATAN DAPAT MENIADAKAN OPSI HUKUMAN MATI BAGI NARAPIDANA DI INDONESIA (THE IMPROVEMENT OF QUALITY OF PENITENTIARY CAN ELIMINATE THE DEATH PENALTY OPTIONS OF CONVICTED CRIMINALS IN INDONESIA)

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 175
Author(s):  
Nomensen Freddy Siahaan
Keyword(s):  
Death Penalty ◽  
Deterrent Effect ◽  
Criminal Cases ◽  
Psychological Burden ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Public ◽  
Good Citizen ◽  
The People ◽  
Long Time

After a long time was not heard to the public area, lately death penalty toward the criminal cases that classified as extraordinary crime are appear. The author discovers electronic article about the execution of the death penalty which is the prosecutor prepares to execute death penalty toward the drugs dealer. The president of Republic of Indonesia stated that it is necessary to give a deterrent effect to the convicted  criminal and keep the morality of Indonesian teenagers. According to my opinion, the author argues that it will be better and wiser if we discuss about renovating all of the Penitentiary in Indonesia than debating whether death penalty could be done in Indonesia or not, because it will be displeasure many parties, death penalty infringed the human rights of the convicted criminals and cause psychological burden to them, families, the executor of the death penalty, and other parties. Because if we have to improve the quality of the Penitentiary, if the function of Penitentiary for fostering moralily has been optimal or properly enough to the convicted criminals, Indonesia will be no longer need the death penalty option as sanction to the convicted crimanals including for the extraordinary crime (especially for drugs trafficking in our country). Penitentiary is one of the public services which aims for fostering the people that initially have bad habits (commited to the crime), so that they will have the awareness to change their bad attitude into the be better ones, will not harm others, and positively contributed to the society. Already Penitentiary’s conditions should be designed in such a way and as good as possible, so that the inmates feels like at their own home (like having a second home after his own home), and feel humaner to spend their days in the Penitentiary. The author believes that if the Penitentiary has been improved and optimized its function well, then the real purpose of Penitentiary will definitely achieved. As stated in Law Number 12 Year 1995 regarding to Penitentiary Article 2 which states "sanction system are organized in order to fostering the convicted criminals in order to be the real man, aware of their fault, improve themselves, and not to repeat the criminal act so that they can be friendly received by the community, can actively participated in the development of our country, and can socialize themselves as good citizen."Article 3 on this regulation also intensifies the function of Penitentiary "the function of Penitentiary is to prepare convicted criminals to be able to properly integrated to the society, so they can be accepted again as members of the public who are free and responsible ones." 

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