scholarly journals Cyclic exit strategies to suppress COVID-19 and allow economic activity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omer Karin ◽  
Yinon M. Bar-On ◽  
Tomer Milo ◽  
Itay Katzir ◽  
Avi Mayo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Latent Period ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Cyclic Schedule ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Part Time ◽  
Exit Strategies

Many countries have applied lockdown that helped suppress COVID-19, but with devastating economic consequences. Here we propose exit strategies from lockdown that provide sustainable, albeit reduced, economic activity. We use mathematical models to show that a cyclic schedule of 4-day work and 10-day lockdown, or similar variants, can prevent resurgence of the epidemic while providing part-time employment. The cycle pushes the reproduction number R below one by reduced exposure time and by exploiting the virus latent period: those infected during work days reach peak infectiousness during lockdown days. The number of work days can be adapted in response to observations. Throughout, full epidemiological measures need to continue including hygiene, physical distancing, compartmentalization, testing and contact tracing. This conceptual framework, when combined with other interventions to control the epidemic, can offer the beginnings of predictability to many economic sectors.

scholarly journals Estimating the generation interval and inferring the latent period of COVID-19 from the contact tracing data

Epidemics ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 100482
Author(s):  
Shi Zhao ◽  
Biao Tang ◽  
Salihu S Musa ◽  
Shujuan Ma ◽  
Jiayue Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latent Period ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Generation Interval

Predictors to use mobile apps for monitoring COVID-19 symptoms and contact tracing: A survey among Dutch citizens. (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Maria Jansen-Kosterink ◽  
Marian Hurmuz ◽  
Marjolein den Ouden ◽  
Lex van Velsen
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Applications ◽  
Mobile Application ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Mobile Apps ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Snowball Sampling ◽  
Final Model ◽  
Symptom Recognition ◽  
Personal Connections

UNSTRUCTURED Background: eHealth applications have been recognized as a valuable tool to reduce COVID-19’s effective reproduction number. In this paper, we report on an online survey among Dutch citizens with the goal to identify antecedents of acceptance of a mobile application for COVID-19 symptom recognition and monitoring, and a mobile application for contact tracing. Methods: Next to the demographics, the online survey contained questions focussing on perceived health, fear of COVID-19 and intention to use. We used snowball sampling via posts on social media and personal connections. To identify antecedents of acceptance of the two mobile applications we conducted multiple linear regression analyses. Results: In total, 238 Dutch adults completed the survey. Almost 60% of the responders were female and the average age was 45.6 years (SD±17.4). For the symptom app, the final model included the predictors age, attitude towards technology and fear of COVID-19. The model had an R2 of 0.141. The final model for the tracing app included the same predictors and had an R2 of 0.156. The main reason to use both mobile applications was to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Concerns about privacy was mentioned as the main reason not to use the mobile applications. Conclusion: Age, attitude towards technology and fear of COVID-19 are important predictors of the acceptance of COVID-19 mobile applications for symptom recognition and monitoring and for contact tracing. These predictors should be taken into account during the development and implementation of these mobile applications to secure acceptance. Discussion: Age, attitude towards technology and fear of COVID-19 are important predictors of the acceptance of COVID-19 mobile applications for symptom recognition and monitoring and for contact tracing. These predictors should be taken into account during the development and implementation of these mobile applications to secure acceptance. Age, attitude towards technology and fear of COVID-19 are important predictors of the acceptance of COVID-19 mobile applications for symptom recognition and monitoring and for contact tracing. These predictors should be taken into account during the development and implementation of these mobile applications to secure acceptance.

scholarly journals Establishment, contagiousness, and initial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada

FACETS ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 180-194
Author(s):  
Martin Krkošek ◽  
Madeline Jarvis-Cross ◽  
Kiran Wadhawan ◽  
Isha Berry ◽  
Jean-Paul R. Soucy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latent Period ◽  
Bayesian Framework ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Median Reduction ◽  
Community Transmission

This study empirically quantifies dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 establishment and early spread in Canada. We developed a transmission model that was simulation tested and fitted in a Bayesian framework to timeseries of new cases per day prior to physical distancing interventions. A hierarchical version was fitted to all provinces simultaneously to obtain average estimates for Canada. Across scenarios of a latent period of 2–4 d and an infectious period of 5–9 d, the R0 estimate for Canada ranges from a minimum of 3.0 (95% CI: 2.3–3.9) to a maximum of 5.3 (95% CI: 3.9–7.1). Among provinces, the estimated commencement of community transmission ranged from 3 d before to 50 d after the first reported case and from 2 to 25 d before the first reports of community transmission. Among parameter scenarios and provinces, the median reduction in transmission needed to obtain R0 < 1 ranged from 46% (95% CI: 43%–48%) to 89% (95% CI: 88%–90%). Our results indicate that local epidemics of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada entail high levels of stochasticity, contagiousness, and observation delay, which facilitates rapid undetected spread and requires comprehensive testing and contact tracing for its containment.

scholarly journals A window of opportunity for intensifying testing and tracing efforts to prevent new COVID-19 outbreaks due to more transmissible variants

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (7/8) ◽  
pp. 329-338
Author(s):  
Jianhong Wu ◽  
Francesca Scarabel ◽  
Zachary McCarthy ◽  
Yanyu Xiao ◽  
Nicholas H Ogden
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Large Outbreak ◽  
Restrictive Measures

Background: When public health interventions are being loosened after several days of decline in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, it is of critical importance to identify potential strategies to ease restrictions while mitigating a new wave of more transmissible variants of concern (VOCs). We estimated the necessary enhancements to public health interventions for a partial reopening of the economy while avoiding the worst consequences of a new outbreak, associated with more transmissible VOCs. Methods: We used a transmission dynamics model to quantify conditions that combined public health interventions must meet to reopen the economy without a large outbreak. These conditions are those that maintain the control reproduction number below unity, while accounting for an increase in transmissibility due to VOC. Results: We identified combinations of the proportion of individuals exposed to the virus who are traced and quarantined before becoming infectious, the proportion of symptomatic individuals confirmed and isolated, and individual daily contact rates needed to ensure the control reproduction number remains below unity. Conclusion: Our analysis indicates that the success of restrictive measures including lockdown and stay-at-home orders, as reflected by a reduction in number of cases, provides a narrow window of opportunity to intensify case detection and contact tracing efforts to prevent a new wave associated with circulation of more transmissible VOCs.

scholarly journals Modeling Gender-Structured Wildlife Diseases with Harvesting: Chronic Wasting Disease as an Example

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mo'tassem Al-Arydah ◽  
Robert J. Smith ◽  
Frithjof Lutscher
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Chronic Wasting Disease ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Wildlife Diseases ◽  
Wasting Disease ◽  
Effective Strategies ◽  
Optimum Interval ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion infectious disease that affects members of the deer family in North America. Concerns about the economic consequences of the presence of CWD have led management agencies to seek effective strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Current mathematical models are either based on complex simulations or overly simplified compartmental models. We develop a mathematical model that includes gender structure to describe CWD in a logistically growing population. The model includes harvesting as a management strategy for the disease. We determine the stability conditions of the disease-free equilibrium for the model and calculate the basic reproduction number. We find an optimum interval of harvesting: with too little harvesting, the disease persists, whereas too much harvesting results in extinction of the population. A sensitivity analysis shows that the disease threshold is more sensitive to female than male harvesting and that harvesting has the greatest effect on the basic reproduction number. However, while harvesting may be a way to control CWD, the range of admissible harvesting rates may be very narrow, depending on other parameters.

scholarly journals The concept of technological proximity in the development of European Union national innovative systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (51) ◽  
pp. 35-45
Author(s):  
Svetlana Rastvortseva ◽  
Aizhan Amanalieva
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
High Tech ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Composition Determination ◽  
Comparative Advantages ◽  
Degree Of Participation

Abstract The development of national innovative systems is intended to solve a number of issues: from decreasing socio-economic inequality in countries and regions to creating environments favourable to new high-tech production and diversification of industrial composition. Determination of the possibilities for expanding the set of innovative types of economic activity must be scientifically substantiated, since significant financial, material and human resources may be consumed in creating and supporting new economic sectors within the framework of state policy. This article contains an attempt to create a mechanism for revealing promising trends in the development of an innovative economic sphere, taking into account comparative advantages in the commodity composition of exports by determining technological proximity indicators. The article aims to substantiate the possibility of using the concept of technological proximity in developing national innovative systems. The study employs technological proximity indicators based on the revealed comparative advantages (RCA) of countries by commodity groups of export. A matrix of technological proximity in the industrial fields (at a six-unit level) for 28 countries of the European Union in 2007–18 was made. The results revealed comparative advantages by groups of high-tech products in EU countries in real time. The analysis of technological proximity in the industrial sector has shown the types of economic activity connected with the innovative sector, which was used to determine the countries’ degree of participation in the manufacture of high-tech products. The proposed mechanism can be used in the development and implementation of national and regional policy in the sphere of innovative systems, since it allows promising areas for creation and support of new high-tech productions to be determined.

scholarly journals Lowering the scale of “shadow” economy: regional aspects (on the example of the Republic of Dagestan)

2021 ◽  
pp. 47-69
Author(s):  
Mazika Musabekovna Imanshapieva
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Current Context ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Medium Businesses

The goal of this research is to outline e the vectors for reducing the scale of &ldquo;shadow&rdquo; economy, improving control over legalization of the income of small and medium businesses in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, and determining tax potential of the regions in separate sectors economic sectors in the current context. The subject of this research is the role and place of legalization of shadow business as the factor of stimulating the economic activity of the regions. The article examines various approaches of the experts towards the concept of &ldquo;shadow&rdquo; economy in the modern conditions. Analysis is carried out on the peculiarities of development of &ldquo;shadow&rdquo; economy in certain economic sectors (such as construction, wholesale and retail, alcohol production, etc.) in Russian regions (using the example of the Republic of Dagestan). Comparative study is conducted on various indicators in the constituent entities of North Caucasus Federal District and the Russian Federation. Special attention is given to the measures aimed at reduction of the scale of &ldquo;shadow&rdquo; economy and improving control over legalization of the income of entrepreneurial activity with regards to increasing tax revenues from small and medium businesses and determining tax potential of the regions. Recommendations are made for reducing the scale of the &ldquo;shadow&rdquo; economic sectors, increasing tax revenue from small and medium businesses, determining tax potential of the region in separate economic sectors, stimulating economic activity of small business within the limits of economic security. Based on the acquired results, the author makes&nbsp; suggestions on legalization of the &ldquo;shadow sector&rdquo; in separate branches of the economy, as well as improvement of the effectiveness of measures of interdepartmental cooperation of tax, law enforcement and registering bodies aimed at determination of tax potential of the regions in the current context.

scholarly journals Mitigating the Effect of Covid-19 on the Society Through the Islamic Social Finance

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-61
Author(s):  
Ibraheem Alani AbdulKareem ◽  
Mohd Sadad bin Mahmud ◽  
Moses Elaigwu ◽  
Abdul Fattah Abdul Ganiyy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Poverty Eradication ◽  
Social Wellbeing ◽  
The People ◽  
Major Burn ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Daily Wage

As at the end year of 2019, the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak had caused an unparalleled human crisis around the world. The disease is causing not just a health problem but also economic crisis. Numerous countries fell into meltdown and more people fell into poverty. The government may not be sufficiently able to take the economy back to its track. The concentration has now moved from the spread of the virus to the economic consequences it will bring to the community. The lack of production will lead to the deficiency of supply and therefore will end as loss of employment and jobs for a large number of people around the globe. The most significant sections of our society are SMEs and daily wage will bear the major burn of the crisis. Therefore, Islamic social finance, incorporating zakat and waqf, has to be adopted to address the Covid-19 pandemic crisis. Zakat and waqf are commonly practised in Muslims countries majority. Zakat and waqf function show the possibility and economic advantages of zakat and waqf properties for people’s prosperity. Moreover, zakat and waqf can be utilized to fill financial gaps and can likewise be utilized to create social wellbeing. This study explores the application and potential of zakat and waqf institutions for the social wellbeing of the people and economic development during and after Covid-19 pandemic. The study reviewed past studies on the potential of zakat and waqf as an alternative way for social development and economic growth. The study, therefore, observed that zakat and waqf institutions can improve economic activity through zakat and waqf properties use for various purposes such as health services, infrastructure, SMEs, poverty eradication and education. 

ICT Investments on Economic Sectors With International Comparative Advantage and the Diffusion of Prosperity

2021 ◽  
pp. 1662-1671
Author(s):  
Ioannis Papadopoulos ◽  
Apostolos Syropoulos
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Schools ◽  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Information Communication ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Key Technologies ◽  
International Comparative ◽  
Deep Crisis

The authors show how information communication and technologies (ICTs) can be used to boost the economy of a country that emerges from a deep crisis. In particular, they discuss how the economy can change by incorporating ICTS in all areas of economic activity. In addition, they examine how Greece, which is a typical example of a country thar emerges from a long crisis, can be benefited by such an incorporation. Also, they discuss how primary and secondary schools should adapt their curricula so that their graduates have a certain understanding of key technologies and have the required knowledge to tackle a number of problems.

scholarly journals De-Escalation by Reversing the Escalation with a Stronger Synergistic Package of Contact Tracing, Quarantine, Isolation and Personal Protection: Feasibility of Preventing a COVID-19 Rebound in Ontario, Canada, as a Case Study

Biology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biao Tang ◽  
Francesca Scarabel ◽  
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi ◽  
Zachary McCarthy ◽  
Michael Glazer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Personal Protection ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Canadian Provinces

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, most Canadian provinces have gone through four distinct phases of social distancing and enhanced testing. A transmission dynamics model fitted to the cumulative case time series data permits us to estimate the effectiveness of interventions implemented in terms of the contact rate, probability of transmission per contact, proportion of isolated contacts, and detection rate. This allows us to calculate the control reproduction number during different phases (which gradually decreased to less than one). From this, we derive the necessary conditions in terms of enhanced social distancing, personal protection, contact tracing, quarantine/isolation strength at each escalation phase for the disease control to avoid a rebound. From this, we quantify the conditions needed to prevent epidemic rebound during de-escalation by simply reversing the escalation process.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document